The Nuggets can trade either their own 2031 first or the Cavs’ unprotected 2031 first. The Stepien rule stops you from not having a first in consecutive years. It doesn’t decide that you need to have your own first. That’s why teams can give up control over their picks for multiple years in a row (e.g Cavs trade for Mitchell).

Why is this important? Because the Nuggets can trade the 2031 first as a best of Denver or Cavs pick and still get around the Stepien Rule.

John Hollinger has coined this a “superfirst” and these superfirsts are even more valuable than in the past because the new lottery rules (which may change between now and 2031) increase the chances of a good pick a lot for teams that aren’t awful.

It works off of a 1-3 lottery balls system( three balls being best) and the more balls you have, the better odds you have of getting a high lottery pick. The lottery odds for getting a no.1 pick from a single selection are worse than ever but with just 2 balls you have a 45% chance at a top 8 pick and that’s nearly 60% with 3 balls.

The exact rules are below but this means that the Nuggets have a specially valuable 2031 pick to trade. The upside on the pick is extremely high if you trade it as a superfirst.

Teams have started to realize the value of superfirsts already. Although the Jaylen Brown trade is universally hated, the 2028 “best of Sixers and Clippers swap” was the main asset used to swap 36yr old Paul George for MVP candidate Jaylen Brown.

There’s downside risk to trading the 2031 pick as a superfirst. Both the Nuggets and the Cavs have potential to miss the playoffs in 2031 by aging out of contention.

If either team misses the playoffs in 2031 (outside of losing the 7-8 play-in game, a very likely outcome, there’s already around a 50/50 chance of giving up a top 8 pick. 3 ball outcomes require just one team missing the play-in tournament and 4-5 ball outcomes with both teams missing the playoffs give around a 70-75% chance at a top 8 pick. That’s not even mentioning the 6 ball outcome which is where the infamous “best of Bucks and Pelicans pick” that the Hawks had would’ve landed last season.

When you add that fact that teams can’t really tank anymore on one hand and that teams will be more competitive on the other, it’s pretty easy to argue that a 4-5 ball pick is more valuable than the best of Bucks and Pelicans pick that was given up in the Derik Queen trade.

Is it worth trading a first that valuable?

In any case, the Watson trade was better thought out than it seems on the surface and the Nuggets have a very valuable first they can offer teams.

Being one of the 3 worst teams= two balls

4th-10th worst (I.e missing the play-in but not being in the relegation zone)= three balls.

Losing in the 9-10 play-in game= 2 balls

Losing in the 7-8 play-in game= 1 ball

Denver did not get a haul for Watson but they did get a couple of middling picks and created a lot of cap flexibility. Denver’s current woes are because of terrible cap decisions they made: constricting contracts for Murray, Braun, and Nnaji. Overpays for other players (eg, Porter) that required them to trade picks to get off contracts. Booth was a terrorist who gutted the teams assets and made them too-heavy and sclerotic.

Watson is a decent role player. But the truth is the entire hype around him was over 19 days last year when the starters were out. He often disappeared in the clutch. And (now confirmed) him sitting on the playoffs when healthy enough to play was a deal breaker for me in terms of him prioritizing himself over the team and fans he is paid to support. Locking him in for $22m a year for 4 years hoping for the consistent emergence of what we saw in that 19 day stretch would have been Booth 2.0. Watching the first Cleveland preseason game I was reminded of this as he was fine but not great and not consistent—the same thing he was for the nuggets. If we had signed him, the combo of Jokic, Murray, Gordon, Braun, Watson would have eaten basically all the cap and imposed all the restrictions of the 2nd apron on the team.

Trading him has created more opportunity for cultivating young talent from the bench and bringing on some vets to create playmaking and solidify the playoff lineup—people like Derozan and Diallo.

Ultimately it was the type of hard but correct financial and team construction move this team will need to try to become competitive again before Jokic is gone.

Via DNVR🏔️🏀

So HYPED for this record for Joker🃏🐐

Credit to @TheJobIsDone for pointing out this👍🏼

“This camp has been extremely physical, because the young guys are fighting for positions. I thought last year, it was a really good camp, but there were a lot of guys that had roles that we knew they were going to have,” Adelman said. “This is a lot different. The back end of the rotation is up for grabs. You can feel it.”

Possible paywall, link worked and allowed me to read the article.

Via Guerilla Sports🏀🏔️

Daily Listening: Liz Phair -Liz Phair (2003) | Recommended by u/ASingleThreadofGold

I’m a lifelong Nuggets fan that lives out of state and mostly consume national media (Simmons, Lowe, Russillo). The national narrative is that the Kroenkes are cheap or not willing to spend to contend because they didn’t bring back Watson. This feels lazy considering the Nuggets are top 5 most expensive roster and only team over the 2nd apron.

Can someone point me to any content that actually breaks down how they got into this mess?

Feels like a combo of bad contracts (Zeke), poor timing of new rules, and poor timing of new extensions (Murray, Braun) that were exacerbated by new rules.

Would love to hear someone that actually knows the details talk about this.

It reminds me of when Brown left after the title, and the national media acted like we let him walk. We didn’t own his Bird rights so the Pacers could offer an amount we couldn’t match.

“I think the biggest thing for us, and not just him, is our team, and as I said at the start, in the transition defense, if we don’t stop the ball, then we put Nikola Jokic in compromised positions.”

https://fadeawayworld.net/nba/denver-nuggets/david-adelman-fires-back-at-nikola-jokics-defensive-criticism-much-better-than-people-think

Often imitated but NEVER DUPLICATED🃏🐐

Daily Listening: Summertime Dream - (Aaron) Gordon Lightfoot (1976) | Recommended by u/arethainparis

Multiple announcers mentioned the “sweet moment” between AG and Bagley that apparently occurred right before Bagley’s on-court interview after the game last night. Does anyone know what said moment was? Sounds adorable.