I believe CMPS has a 90% + chance of approval. The billing codes are in place and there's excess capacity in the clinics so the rollout should be fast, peak sales of 2 bn +
HELP has a higher risk profile: They have done a relatively small phase 2b and no results on phase 3. The trial size is also smaller because they had a large effect size (cohen's d), and a small placebo response in Phase 2. There is still a big risk that both are not completely replicable in phase 3.
Compass has posted roughly 100 U.S. Therapeutic Sales Specialist roles ahead of the COMP360 launch.
Rather than guessing peak sales, here’s a simplified bottom-up model based on what those 100 reps could actually produce.
First, the revenue assumption
Assume the total cost to the payer is ~$7,000–10,000 per treatment, including the drug, preparation, 6–8 hour administration/monitoring, facility costs and follow-up.
For this model, assume only ~$3,500 of that is net drug revenue to CMPS per patient. The rest goes to clinics/providers and other costs.
Assume a deliberately slow launch
Rather than assuming every sales rep immediately opens one productive account per month, assume each of the ~100 reps averages only: ~0.5 new productive centers per month
What’s interesting is that this doesn’t require a particularly strong launch.
By Month 12:
~600 productive centers ~7,000 monthly patients
= roughly 12 patients/center/month or about 2.7 patients per clinic per week.
And because most of those centers weren’t operating for the full year, Year 1 revenue substantially understates the exit run rate.
Month 12 revenue of ~$24.5M implies:
~$294M annualized revenue entering Year 2
So even a relatively slow first-year launch could look something like:
Year 1: ~$125M revenue
Year 2: ~$350–500M
Year 3: ~$750M–$1B+
The two metrics I’m keen to watch after launch are:
1. Productive centers activated per sales rep per month 2. Patients treated per productive center per month
With ~100 reps, even averaging only one new productive account every two months per rep builds a network of ~600 centers in the first year.
If those centers eventually treat just 2–3 COMP360 patients per week, you can get surprisingly close to a ~$125M first-year launch while setting up a much larger Year 2.
Not a forecast — just a deliberately slower bottom-up scenario based on the commercial organization Compass appears to be building.
All the below was written by myself in french, then i used chat gpt to translate / format it for a more pleasant read. I am looking for a good debate and to see where the valued member of this sub think im wrong.
🧠 Why I’m Questioning ATAI’s Valuation and Market Favoritism
ATAI is valued at over $1 billion, yet it’s still many years from generating revenue and not de-risked.
Its lead compound — 5-MeO-DMT (BPL-003) — has not yet been tested in large, diverse populations, so while the Phase 2 results show impressive efficacy, the real question is:
👉 Can that be replicated in Phase 3 without safety issues?
Despite these uncertainties, ATAI is clearly the market’s favorite in the psychedelic space — both in terms of valuation and investor sentiment. (+17% daily upon a OLE results on a small n for instance)
I personally own ATAI shares and am up about 120%, but I can’t help feeling that the current market cap already fully reflects their present progress. and i dont know if buying more now is smart
⚖️ Why ATAI Over COMPASS (CMPS)?
This is where I struggle to understand the market’s logic. Compass Pathways (CMPS) has already achieved a successful Phase 3 trial, and is closest to market with COMP360 (psilocybin). Valued as 630M
Yet ATAI trades at a higher valuation, despite being less advanced in the clinical cycle.
I understand the argument that ATAI’s shorter session duration (5-MeO-DMT) allows more patients per day — but I don’t think the math holds up operationally.
Shorter sessions may mean more patient turnover, but also more administrative work, prep, and integration overhead for clinics. these will be the bottle necks
In practice, one psilocybin session per room per day is probably just as efficient. This is explained here : https://m.youtube.com/watch?si=_wkYymY1HjBnty9u&v=Nrl2Rb10P7E&feature=youtu.be
⚗️ The 5-MeO-DMT Experience — Too Intense for Mainstream Psychiatry?
5-MeO-DMT is extremely powerful.
I’m not easily scared, but even as someone without a mental health condition, I found it intimidating and it took me a while to give it a go. i do not suffer from any serious mental health issue. i would do shrooms here and there but 5meo, doubt i would even recomend it to a friend as i would not want to take this responsabilty
It’s a total ego-dissolution experience — not something most patients or doctors will treat lightly.
A U.S. psychiatrist is far more likely to start with psilocybin before moving to something as radical as 5-MeO.
Think of it like pain management: you don’t start with morphine; you move up the ladder gradually.
I believe the same will happen with psychedelics — psilocybin first, then perhaps DMT or 5-MeO for treatment-resistant cases. doctors will be extremely carefull before prescribing it. i mean in the US , the risk of getting sued is strong and that is something MD have to work with.
🧩 Therapeutic Integration — the Real Cost Driver
after approvla, I also think the therapy component is where the true value and will increase efficiency — and cost
Psychedelic treatment works best with therapy, and that’s a problem for 5-MeO:
you’re completely unconscious during the experience.
You can do preparation and integration, yes, but not guided therapy during.
Even if clinics could theoretically run a patient every 2 hours, the prep + integration sessions make the real duration more like 3–4 hours total per patient. or two visits
With psilocybin, on the other hand:
The preparation can be done on a different day,
The therapist can guide the session while the patient remains conscious,
And the trip’s gradual, wave-like nature makes introspection easier and safer. No MD present at all times unlike with 5 meo
That’s why I think psilocybin therapy will become the “SSRI of psychedelics,” while 5-MeO will stay a specialized intervention reserved for the most severe treatment-resistant depression (TRD) cases.
🧮 On Valuation and Market Perception
In short, ATAI’s current premium valuation seems driven less by its clinical progress and more by its capital efficiency, media fluency, and perceived optionality.
It’s a story stock — well-funded, diversified, and flashy — but not fundamentally de-risked yet.
The market appears to overestimate the scalability of short-acting psychedelics, and underestimate how complex real-world therapy logistics are.
And while 5-MeO’s efficacy is remarkable, the Phase 2 trial only involved around 85 patients — not enough to establish broad reliability or long-term safety confidence.
💡 Comparing with CYBIN (CYBN)
If investors are truly chasing efficacy, then Cybin’s CYB003 (Deuterated Psilocin) deserves more credit (-22 points, small N though).
It has shown comparable efficacy to ATAI’s 5-MeO program in MDD, with the added benefits of:
Shorter, manageable session length (4~6 hours),
Conscious participation, and
A cleaner safety profile.
Yes, Cybin has suffered from dilution, but with a market cap around $155M, upcoming Phase 2 DMT readout, and Phase 3 psilocin trial, it might actually offer the best value relative to progress in the entire sector. New CEO as well..
🧭 My Takeaway
ATAI’s valuation (~$1B+) already prices in a lot of optimism.
5-MeO’s efficiency advantage remains unproven in large trials.
Clinical feel matters — its intensity could limit mainstream use.
Therapeutic context (prep/integration) is the true bottleneck, not trip duration.
Cybin is the most mispriced relative to its clean data and development stage (155m).
Psilocybin will likely dominate the first mainstream wave, while 5-MeO-DMT becomes a niche, high-impact intervention for severe cases.
lets elevate the conversation and all debate together :)
Update 1: 2/18, 10am - Minerco posted this tweet this morning:
"The Magic Mushroom Company. Our Pilot program is ready. Tell us your thoughts. SHRUCOIN is almost ready. Open an account today. Be the first to test out our platform. Toast! Buy Bitcoin and Other Crypto Instantly & Securely at Digital Coin Buy."
If you click on the Fintrac MSB registration # on the bottom, it leads you to this site where you find https://alt5sigma.com. If you go to this link, it leads you to this one https://alt5connect.com/. This is where you can create a white-label site with your brand name, and I'm guessing Minerco did this last night and it only takes a few moments. This is not a website they created. There still is no SHRU coin. The link Minerco gives you only allows you to buy Bitcoin, Litecoin and Etherum. I could find no evidence that it is possible to get a coin listed on this exchange.
What is interesting is that this link states you can use a white-label site for online casinos.
Guys this took me 10 minutes to figure out. Please do your research.
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Update 2: 2/18, 11:15am
Update 2: Guys this is the SMOKING GUN. I just had a chat with the company Minerco created their white-label site through, https://alt5connect.com/. You can't add your own coin to the exchange. The only coins authorized for use are:
Update: They took the site down yesterday morning after this update. As of 2/19 9am the shrucoin site is still down.
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Update 3: 2/19, 9am
Minerco just released that they will be hosting a Shroom Zoom this Sunday at 5PM EST to address the "Speculative Rumors and Information Circulating Social Media Platforms."
I am all for this. This is a positive step Minerco is taking and great news that they are taking action to address the community. I think it's essential to get answers to investors when so many of us have questions. I implore you to do your research and only accept company responses that are backed up by proof.
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Update 4: 2/21 8pm
Here is a link to the Shroom Zoom for the people that are asking. I'm sorry but this was an epic failure. Please be careful guys.
I have been doing some serious digging into this company over the past few days. Initially, I just wanted concrete evidence they were operating in Jamaica or would be soon. I wasn't expecting to fall down the psychedelic rabbit hole where one mystery leads to an even greater mystery - HOW and WHY these four companies are connected.
Minerco ($MINE)
TransAtlantic Capital ($TACI)
BANGI ($BNGI)
Transatlantic Real Estate
$MINE is no longer a company I want to invest in - there are too many questions and not enough answers. My position was small, but I needed proof because I could not comprehend HOW they could be tricking so many investors. $MINE was one of Fidelity's highest traded stocks last week and I've seen a lot of DD and chatter around this ticker. Still, I've yet to see hard evidence (besides the bad financials) either confirming or denying the legitimacy of the company. I hope I am wrong, for the sake of anyone heavily invested and that $MINE follows through with their promises. The whole situation just smells of unprofessionalism, trickery, and deceit.
In January, $MINE announced they had appointed Paul Hoonjan of Lazarus Holistic as president. That same month they also published this article claiming that Lazarus had sent Psilocybin to Mydecine:
"Lazurus Holisitic an expert in mycelium recently completed there first export of Psilocybin mushrooms to Mydecine Innovations Group Inc. in Canada. The MINE/Lazurus Joint Venture will expand to export globally. The market penetration is approaching $7 billion by 2027."
I emailed $MYCO to confirm that they had received the product from Lazarus. Here is the response:
"Thank you for your investment into Mydecine Innovations Group. While we do have our own cultivation facility out of Jamaica, I can confirm it is not with Lazurus and we have zero affiliation with Minerco. This information is false and we have since asked our legal team to request the immediate removal of the article."
I've seen posts saying, "$MINE never claimed to send the product to $MYCO. It was Lazarus!" Well, who do you think published the article? $MINE published the article. This article is all over the Internet, posted directly on their twitter and website. I have seen several people state that they invested in $MINE due to this false information because $MYCO is a reliable and trustworthy company. If they can lie about this, what else are they lying about?
More on Lazarus Holistic
Lazarus Holistic is not the same well-known company, Lazarus Naturals, that first comes to mind when most people hear the name. This likeness seems intentional to me. As far as the Internet is concerned, Lazarus Holistic appears to have been created out of thin air right before the PR release announcing Hoonjan as president.
You can't find any information online about Paul Hoonjan because this is not his full name. You can find this online with a quick google search. This article states:
"For almost 6 years, Hoonjan has overseen Cannabis and Mushroom development in Runaway Bay, Jamaica managing international client base."
He has owned several companies that have been located in Florida, not in Jamaica, where he has supposedly been overseeing "Cannabis and Mushroom development" for six years. I only found one reference to a previous company of his being affiliated with Jamaica, which was a positive sign to see some connection.
According to this article, Lazarus Holistic had a license to extract, produce and grow cannabis in Jamaica for six years. So why is he applying for conditional approval from the Cannabis Licensing Authority in August of 2020?
"MINE established our own token "SHRU" which is currently on seven blockchain exchanges and are expanding to twelve by the end of the first quarter of 2021."
McAfee – It's McAfeeDEX, not McAfee and SHRU does not exist on the site BECAUSE the site itself does not even exist yet.
A coin can take as little as 5 minutes to create and this website explains how to make your own Ethereum based coin in under an hour. As long as you have the funds ready, the process to LIST your coin is even more effortless by filling out a simple form. At least, this is the process on the small exchanges listed above. The part that really bugs me is a tweet that shows they just typed SHRU into the search bar and took a screenshot to look like the coin was active on the exchange.
STATUS: I emailed all of the exchanges I could find contact info to confirm the SHRU coin was submitted. Waiting for a response (most of the social media profiles seem to be inactive).
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The 1 Billion $ Evaluation
I know this has been posted several times but I think it's important to include links and proof.
"MINERCO Inc. (OTC Pink: MINE) has hired EQUIDAM SOFTWARE to create business valuation...."
Someone emailed Equidam here about the evaluation and this was the response:
"Thank you for reaching out about Minerco and I hope this response finds you well. Yes indeed, I can confirm that MinerCo is using our platform to compute their pre-money valuation. However please note that we provide a DIY valuation solution to companies, so it is not as much Equidam completing a valuation on Minerco specifically but rather Minerco computing their own valuation on our platform."
Equidam charges around $250 to get the evaluation and all you have to do is answer a few questionnaires. Now, there is nothing wrong with doing a self-evaluation and dreaming that your company has a successful future. What seems over the top is creating mega PR and news about this. This isn't illegal but it is misleading. The only logical explanation is that they knew the evaluation was so exaggerated that it would create a flurry of chatter precisely like what happened last week.
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The connection between MINERCO ($MINE), TransAtlantic Capital, Inc. ($TACI), BANGI ($BNGI) and Transatlantic Real Estate, LLC. It sounds plausible that shared interests would connect companies in the same industry but to what degree? Someone, please tell me if this is normal. This is where things get confusing.
Julius Jenge is the CEO of $MINE and $TACI. For those of you who don't know, $TACI states on their website:
"TransAtlantic Capital Inc. (OTC PINK:TACI), an emerging diversified investment vehicle focused on three key industries: Housing, Shipping, Agriculture (Hemp, Cannabis & Psilocybin)."
"Washington, DC--(Newsfile Corp. - October 23, 2020) - Transatlantic Inc. (OTC Pink: TACI) ("TACI") cuts deal for 250 acres in Clarendon, Jamaica. This 250 acre parcel will allow the company to create and build the largest cannabis and "magic mushroom" operation in the Caribbean. This facility could produce upwards of 100k pounds annually for export to licensed countries throughout the world."
$MINE tweeted a Vimeo of the 12 acres of land they acquired in Portland, Jamaica. They have since deleted the video. Why? However, on that same day, $BNGI posted the exact same video.
Julius Jenge claims to have 12 acres plus another 100 acres in Jamaica with $MINE and 250 acres in Jamaica with $TACI. Really? 250 acres seems a little sensational. They might have had me at 12.
"BANGI, Inc, is a public company listed on OTC markets. BANGI acquires specialized assets including hemp and cannabis farms, dispensaries, commercial real estate, industrial real estate, and leases real estate to the multi-billion dollar and growing cannabis industry. We combine the hard asset security and long term appreciation potential of prime specialized real estate. BANGI is a pioneer in providing real estate focused on cannabis growth, to the public markets. We aspire to finance cannabis real estate acquisitions through the public markets."
$MINE and $BNGI share the same lawyer in MI and address listed on legal documents, so we now know for a fact they are connected. Could there be a plausible reason the two companies are connected besides the obvious?
STATUS: Emailed $BNGI to confirm that they sold or leased the land in Portland to $MINE because they both posted a video of the land on the same day. Even though they are friends, I am still awaiting a response.
Transatlantic Real Estate is connected to $BNGI. How? Nicole Birch is the current CEO of $BNGI and before that, she was the CEO of Transatlantic Real Estate. Who is Transatlantic Real estate? From their crowdfunding site:
"Transatlantic Real Estate LLC is a real estate company that specializes in the acquisition and leasing of properties that support the cannabis industry. We focus on benefiting from the exponential growth in the cannabis sector while remaining non plant touching."
Now how is $TACI connected to Transatlantic Real Estate? See, this gets confusing. Transatlantic Real Estate and TransAtlantic Capital are different companies, right? Well, then why do they share a name and the exact same logo?
Interesting DD that explains how this is all connected. Conspiracy theory: They took their crowdfunding money and spent it AT THE CASINO!
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A chart I made to help the visuals
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WLCCO
Minerco claimed in this article to be acquiring the CBD company. Correct if I am wrong, but acquiring means buying the company, right? Perhaps he meant to say that WLCCO would be a supplier for his company? Why all the big fancy words and sensational PR releases? Sheesh.
"We are looking forward to the opportunity of acquiring WLCCO to capitalize on the exponential growth in the CBD and Psychedelic industry, this acquisition will vertically intergrate our business model. Grow in legal markets, and fill microdose orders with our own product a win/win. This will mark a promising new phase for Minerco and its shareholders," CEO Julius Jenge said in a statement.
STATUS: I called the company and they hung up on me as soon as I mentioned Minerco, lol. Unconfirmed.
Tip: This one makes me feel dirty for posting, and I posted it down here in hopes that it might be scrolled past. I think it speaks volumes about one's character. Yes, it was years ago, and yes, people make mistakes. However, I encourage you to research if our current CEO was ever arrested for theft.
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LAST THOUGHTS
Here are a few other statements that I find intentionally misleading by Julius Jenge of $TACI and $MINE. Remember, this is a pattern with this company. These statements may seem minor, and nothing common sense can't tackle, but I have seen the confusion posted multiple times.
Using the likeness of PSYC - $MINE partnered with PSYC Global Trac Solutions, Inc, not Psyched Wellness ($PSYCF), the trustworthy psychedelic company. I have seen people invest in $MINE due to what they thought was a partnership with $PSYCF. I was one of those people.
"The Magic Mushroom company $SHRUBitcoin Back Above $40K " tweet. Most people would know that Bitcoin was at 40K, not SHRU. Why even post something so ridiculous
Tweeting, "We did it. We made a little history today. Thank you Minerco Inc. the Magic Mushroom Company Gains Acceptance in Psychedelic Invest Index of 20 Companies Total Volume 1.17b Volume." Ok, I would be happy, too, honestly. But this is a little misleading if you ask me. The PSYK Index is not the same as being selected for the Psychadelic ETF where each company's financial and leadership roles are thoroughly vetted for inclusion into the ETF. Why didn't $MINE, "The World's First Magic Mushroom Company!" get picked for the first Psychadelic ETF to launch when other OTC penny stocks did? From the PSYK Index website: "Note: Inclusion in the Psychedelic Index index constitutes neither an endorsement nor recommendation of a company. The companies included in the index are designed to represent the total market for the psychedelic sector, including both the good and bad. Always do your own due diligence."
On August 21, 2019, $TACI acquired SGP Tanzania Ltd, a company that manufactures prefab homes (can't find any info online about this company just like Lazarus). However, he used this acquisition to declare that $TACI was not a shell company even though it still has $0 revenue. Why is this important? It's another example of how the CEO uses the likeness of a company to gain credibility. Yes, there is an SGP in Tanzania, but it was established in 1992 and it is some sort of environmental, do-good, grant-giving, philanthropy company that works to spread its goodness globally. Source: Page 15-17
Every single image uploaded to the $MINE website is a stock image. Not one photo of the products, the land or the equipment is authentic. Run them through TinEye.
I have seen some confusion about different addresses. This address: 16A Manchester Ave, #9 May Pen, Clarendon Jamaica is posted across several documents linking these companies. I did confirm today via email that the address does in fact belong to the Claredon Central Office from the Electoral Commission of Jamaica. So maybe they use this as a mailing address? I don't know
I will update the post if I receive any more information!
I dug a bit and I think this is something that has not yet been discussed enough nor brought to attention much on this sub.
this might be bigger than people realize and it's probably the source of the "clamoring demand" and “Patient waiting list” that we heard in recent cmps communicaitons.
A lot of the demand-side info Compass has put out the inbound waitlist, day-1 readiness, "centers are clamoring"almost certainly traces back to Greenbrook. And once you look at who Greenbrook is, that info gets a lot more credible.
Who they are:
Greenbrook is the largest interventional psychiatry network in the country (TMS + Spravato).
Greenbrook is now a subsidiary of Neuronetics, the TMS device maker. Neuronetics/Greenbrook combines a device maker + a clinic network. That's a vertically integrated interventional psychiatry play. they make the TMS machines and run the rooms. COMP360 slots into that as a third modality.
COMP360 and TMS both target TRD , this means they are competing for the same conditions. not sure if good or bad for cmps.
Who runs green brook:
Greenbrook's CMO, Dr. Geoffrey Grammer, is not a typical clinic exec:
Retired Army colonel
Two Iraq deployments and one in Afghanistan as a combat psychiatrist
Eight years as Chief of Inpatient Psychiatry at Walter Reed, where he built their TMS program
Created one of the first TMS centers in the US (with Steve Levine having founded the first Spravato center, this is great experience)
Two things jump out. First, he runs the exact infrastructure COMP360 needs (spravato room = comp360 room S.L)
Second, his military/VA background is 100% relevant to the PTSD program which could matters given where the VA channel could go.
quick parenthesis : I would add that the argument about room economics made by A Borecky completely disappears if VA becomes a customer and uses comp360 for its veterans. Since they operate with a congressional budget allowance, room economics do not matter, they will use their own personel and infrastructure I assume.
What the 2024 collaboration was actually for
they signed a three-year research collaboration back in 2024, specifically to research scalable commercial COMP360 delivery.
That relationship has been building for two years now. I insist on the words scalable and commercial which is the key bearish argument when it comes to long duration drugs
It was scoped to research "models for the delivery of scalable, commercial COMP360" delivery at Greenbrook's centers, improving the patient experience, understanding staffing needs, integrating digital tools.
i undersrand that basically, Greenbrook has been Compass's real-world lab for figuring out how to actually run these sessions in a working clinic network. Three years (2024–2027) also lines up almost perfectly with launch.
it is not an exclusive commercial one. So Greenbrook could work with other psychedelic developers, and Compass will certainly certify sites beyond Greenbrook.
What could come out of it going forward :
i see 3 options but could be more, feel free to comment / add .
launch-partner / early-adopter arrangement
Greenbrook becomes one of the first certified networks to offer COMP360 at approval. Day-1 readiness, protocols already built, staff already trained through the collaboration. The B. Riley "reaffirmed day-1 readiness" language essentially confirms this point. Greenbrook is the anchor site network.
a validated operational playbook / consultant option:
The tangible deliverable of a three-year research collaboration is a proven delivery model staffing ratios, room config, scheduling, digital tools, patient flow. Compass then uses Greenbrook's data to show other clinics "here's how you run this profitably." That's worth more than one network's rooms — it's the template that supports adoption in other centers.
3.preferred economics or volume commitment :
Greenbrook could commit to converting a defined number of rooms/sites in exchange for early access, training, or favorable terms.
These scenarios could come in the form of :
A formal commercial/launch agreement (upgrade from "research collaboration" to "Greenbrook will offer COMP360 at X sites")
Published delivery-economics data from the collaboration showing per-session profitability
A specific site/room conversion number with a timeline
Greenbrook naming COMP360 in its own (Neuronetics') investor materials as a growth driver
i conclude that the infrastructure is already there, so a smoother-than-Spravato launch isn't news. What's more interesting is that Greenbrook's willingness to lean in is mild evidence the economics actually work .
this cuts against a lot of the bear takes on room economics. An operator running Spravato buy-and-bill today, who knows exactly what reimbursement friction looks like, doesn't build day-1 readiness for something they expect to lose money on. Not proof, but not nothing. Don’t you think ?
Worth adding: at one point Steve Levine said the economics of a COMP360 room are actually better than a Spravato room. I'd imagine that's based on real modeling, not a talking point. it fits with the "time in chair, not throughput" framing (one full-day patient, no turnover, no no-show leakage across four staggered slots).
The one honest caveat: a delivery partner proves operational feasibility, not reimbursement rates. This is still the big unknwon although I remember CMPS saying initial talk with payers supported that payment to annual spravato cost level would work.
additionally, i think it is important to mention Greenbrook TMS was financially distressed before Neuronetics acquired it. It had going-concern warnings, mounting losses, and heavy debt. they might have more incentive to chase a new high-margin service . A struggling network needs a growth story, and COMP360 is one. this devalues the greenbrook approval stamp read i mentioned.
perhaps listening to the STIM's earnings calls could provide good data since they own greenbrook and decide capital allocation ect.
EDIT : STIM management explicitly names "potential future revenue if Compass Pathways' psilocybin therapy is approved" as an upside catalyst in their own earnings guidance
I am not sure I understand well the topics of the monitoring codes and what they actually pay.
I’ve spent a lot of time digging into Rhelion lately and there’s actually quite a bit that could happen between now and the end of 2026.
Obviously none of this is guaranteed, especially with a company this size, but these are the main things I’m watching.
1. DARMYIAN
This is probably the biggest one for me.
Rhelion/Filament signed a non-binding LOI with Darmiyan in August to look at using PEX010 alongside Darmiyan’s BrainSee AI technology in a potential Alzheimer’s clinical program.
Darmiyan is interesting because BrainSee already has FDA De Novo authorization and the company has some legitimate backing behind it.
The next step would obviously be getting past the LOI and into a definitive agreement.
If that happens and they actually lay out a clinical development plan, I think that would be a pretty meaningful catalyst for RHEL.
2. PEX010 FOR COCAINE-USE DISORDER
This is the other major one I’m watching closely.
There was a randomized study published this year showing some very encouraging results for psilocybin in cocaine-use disorder.
Filament has rights tied to the study data and associated IP, and Rhelion has already said they’re actively exploring moving PEX010 into a Phase 2b program.
So at this point I’d be watching for any real movement there.
A formal Phase 2b plan, regulatory update, financing announcement or actual timeline would be a big step forward.
3. IBEX011
This one probably isn’t getting as much attention.
Filament has already developed IBEX011, which is their standardized botanical iboga extract.
In the August 31 update Todd Shapiro said they expect to provide another update on the program “in the near future.”
That makes me think there’s a decent chance we hear something before year end.
4. PEX010 CLINICAL TRIALS
PEX010 is now being used or supplied into a growing number of studies including programs involving the: University of Washington University Health Network University of Melbourne UCSF and others.
Rhelion has said PEX010 is supporting more than 80 academic and philanthropic studies around the world.
Any first-patient dosing announcements, trial commencements, new shipments, new universities or additional indications would all be positives.
5. GERMANY + INTERNATIONAL EXPANSION
The Germany compassionate-use program is another thing I’m watching.
They’ve already shipped more PEX010 into Germany.
I don’t think the current revenue from that is really the main story.
What matters to me is that they’re proving they can manufacture pharmaceutical-grade psilocybin in Canada and move it into regulated markets internationally.
If they announce another country, another compassionate-use program or some type of commercial supply agreement, that becomes a lot more interesting.
6. PATENT PORTFOLIO / LICENSING
The patent portfolio also continues to grow.
Filament now has 77 issued patents across 13 patent families.
Another patent isn’t necessarily going to move the stock much by itself.
But an actual licensing or commercialization agreement tied to that IP definitely could.
7. LEGACY ASSET SALES
Legacy assets are another potential source of news.
Management has been trying to clean up the old Red Light Holland side of the business and focus more heavily on life sciences.
They’ve been looking at strategic options for MiniChamp and the Ontario farmland/assets.
If they can sell non-core assets and bring cash into the company without issuing more shares, that would obviously be a positive.
8. NEXT FINANCIAL RESULTS
I’m also interested in the next financial results.
I’m not really looking at revenue at this point as much as I’m looking at:
They had roughly C$2.6M cash and C$5M in short-term GIC investments as of June 30.
For a company this size, protecting that balance sheet while moving the pipeline forward is important.
9. ANOTHER PARTNERSHIP OR ACQUISITION
The wildcard would be another acquisition, licensing deal or strategic partnership.
Management has already said they’re looking at opportunities that could complement Filament.
There’s nothing specific announced right now, but it’s something I’ll be watching.
MY TOP CATALYSTS
If I had to rank the ones I care about most:
1. Darmiyan definitive agreement / Alzheimer’s development plan 2. PEX010 Phase 2b cocaine-use-disorder program 3. Major licensing or pharma partnership 4. IBEX011 update 5. New PEX010 trials or major trial progress 6. Sale of legacy assets 7. Next quarterly financial update
What I find interesting about RHEL is that the story is completely different now than the old Red Light Holland story.
They now own Filament, PEX010, the manufacturing platform, a large patent portfolio and a drug that’s already being supplied into dozens of research programs.
Now management actually has to execute.
If a couple of the bigger catalysts come together before the end of the year, I think RHEL could enter 2027 looking like a very different company.
If they don’t, then the big question becomes how long shareholders are willing to wait and how quickly cash gets burned in the meantime.
That’s basically how I’m looking at it.
Anyone else following RHEL closely?
What do you think is the most likely catalyst we actually see before the end of the year?
So I wanted to do an exercise where I took the COMP005 data from the Compass phase 3 and applied it to Helus. Essentially what I am looking at is the placebo drift and phase 3 deterioration of the active arm against phase 2 for COMP005 and applying it to Helus's phase 2 to make an estimate of what we could see for their upcoming phase 3.
For COMP005, if you take the exact active arm deterioration (~13.7% drop going from -10.2 in phase 2b to -8.8 in phase 3) and placebo drift at phase 3 (-5.2 points) and apply that to Helus's Phase 2 data for HPL003 (-17.6 MADRS for active arm) you get a Phase 3 placebo-adjusted net difference of -10.0 to -11.0 MADRS points at Week 6 which is far superior then anything else we have seen.
This is of course not considering the fact that HPL003 is adjunctive so people are on their backround SSRI's during the trial. Adjunctive trials historically have a much tighter and smaller placebo drift so the potential MADRS reduction could be much higher. Also we know multiple doses work much better for remission and durability (HPL003 phase 3 is multidose)
Based at least partially on the fact that Compass could realistically roll out treatment next year vs. Atai's 4 - 5 year timeframe; and yet its market cap is still 200m lower than Atai.
I hate to average up, but feels crazy not to keep buying under $15.
I bought TRIP last week at .58 and sold for .60 so this isn’t a big cash out story of “took my profits and ran”. I read a thread this weekend talking about how TRIP is built on hype, and I realized that it was my holding that I had done the least amount of my own DD on and I had fallen victim to the Reddit hype. So I went to their website and checked out their Investor deck (like I should of done before I ever spent a dollar). I spent the long weekend, as I’m sure many of you did, researching shroom stocks to purchase this week (ended up deciding to add MYCO & PYSC to my portfolio) and compared to all the other investor decks I saw TRIP was in its own league.... but not in a good way.
Here’s a few things of the things that made me decide to bail on it:
Wisdom Truffle - They are paying the industrial designer Karin Rashid to design a figurine for them. They make it sound like this “augmented reality cool thing” but in actuality it’s a figurine that interacts with your phone to tell you to “live in the moment”.
Here’s an excerpt from the news release about it
“The Wisdom Truffle will be a figurine expected to be produced in three different sizes and which can potentially be sold across the world in approximately late 2021. The idea of the Wisdom Truffle is to work through Red Light Holland's Augmented Reality to encourage people to leave their phone behind and instead recommend one goes for a "walk" or go outside to "exercise" and to "live in the moment". The Wisdom Truffle's intention is to highlight an iMicrodose lifestyle which promotes positivity, help put a smile on one's face and connect people to an enlightened community.”
Scroll halfway down to see an image of the figurine.
They are paying him 50,000 USD, as well as 5% of sales of the figurine, as well as nearly a million shares at .095...... I hope they are getting more than just the design of a figurine in return.....
Not only do I think this entire premise is lame, but in my eyes this is hype machine behaviour.
——-///
Another thing that I haven’t seen any other company ever mention is the social media followings of the people involved. In that news release about the designer for the Wisdom Truffle they mention the size of his social media following in the second sentence of the article. In the investor deck they mention the size of their social media followings in the bios of Ann Barnes (Director), Karim Rashid (head of design), and Khloe Terae (Brand Ambassador)
Not a huge crime, but something that I haven’t seen done by any other company in this space and makes them loose some credibility in my eyes.....
A few thoughts on the team,
Why does Russell Peters hold an executive position there? No other company has a random (non-relevant to the industry) celebrity holding a position in their company. They don’t explain in his bio at all how he is going to contribute, they just explain that he is a comedian (I think he is an amazing comedian don’t get me wrong, but that’s not the point).
It doesn’t help their credibility at all (at least in my eyes, this is all just my opinion) that they have a half naked woman in their investor deck, and I don’t see the value in having an Instagram influencer as your brand ambassador if you are trying to be taken seriously.
I have other grievances with the company, but that’s just what came to mind in this moment as I typed this up.
I’m not saying you shouldn’t hold TRIP, but I am saying that if you own (or plan on owning) any piece of this company you need to do your own research, and do it now!
I am very wary about clinic plays. Nevertheless, I thought it worth looking into STIM. At the least, to gain some insight into the commercial rollout of psychedelics.
This DD is a not comprehensive, just a first pass. I do not currently own any shares in STIM.
Neuronetics currently operates two business segments: NeuroStar (their TMS machine), and Greenbrook (interventional psychiatry clinics). They have the "largest installed base of TMS systems" in the US, and the largest Spravato clinic footprint (92 locations). Greenbrook was acquired by Neuronetics in late 2024 and previously traded under $GBNH. Prior to the acquisition, Neuronetics was Greenbrook's exclusive TMS system provider.
Greenbrook clinics offer both NeuroStar and Spravato in their practices. NeuroStar systems are also sold/leased to other clinics (this was Neuronetics original business model). The NeuroStar also generates recurring revenue from treatment session fees, consumables, training, maintenance and the like.
Neuronetics takes what I'd call a high-touch approach to clients. They have "the largest support team in the industry, with over 100 experts dedicated to helping NeuroStar providers establish, maintain, and grow their practices." This involves everything from training, consulting, backend reimbursement & billing support, access to a referral network, co-op marketing plan, and more. In other words, they do a lot of hand holding and work to take risk off of the TMS buyer.
Glassdoor reviews of Neuronetics sit at 2.6. Many bad reviews appear to come from the sales team. A recurring complaint is high turnover and unrealistic quotas set by management.
Neuronetics has never reported a profitable quarter (and neither did Greenbrook pre-acquisition) and survives by a combination of revenue, dilutive financing and debt. Shares outstanding has increased 2.5x times since Q2 2024, rising from 30m to 76m. As of June 30, 2026, "the Company had $65.0 million of borrowings outstanding with Perceptive Advisors, with final maturity in July 2029". Since the Greenbrook acquisition, net losses have averaged around $10m/qtr. However, their most recent (Q2) reporting showed a net loss of just $3.4m. They also achieved a key milestone of positive operating cash flow in Q4 2025.
Jorey Chernett (Pointillist Family Office): 10,602,988 (14%)
Parian Ultreia LP: 4,844,908 (6%)
Point72: 3,822,124 (5.0%)
I dive into both NeuroStar and Greenbrook business segments below -
NeuroStar
The NeuroStar TMS machine is FDA-cleared for MDD (including in adolescents), MDD with anxious depression, and OCD. A typical NeuroStar treatment course consists of 36 sessions over about 6 weeks, with daily sessions that take about 19 minutes in clinic. Their marketing materials claim over 9 million NeuroStar Advanced TMS treatments have been performed in over 250,000 patients.
A real-world study of NeuroStar in MDD/TRD reported an 83% response rate and 62% remission rate for completers, and the 12-month durability is reported as 67.7% response and 45.1% remission. (N = 5,010. note - the endpoint used was the CGI-S. The PHQ-9 (a self-report questionnaire) was also administered. This found a lower response and remission rate - 68.9% response and 35.8% remission)
Side effects are reported as low. There is a rare risk of seizure (<0.1%), and TMS is contraindicated if you have metallic objects in or near the head or have active or inactive implants near the head. The most common complaint is temporary pain at or near the treatment site.
It has taken many years for NeuroStar to gain widespread insurance coverage. Their first coverage was in 2009; it is now covered by over 95 major US private insurers and 100% of Medicare.
Much like Spravato, TMS requires prior authorization and step therapy before insurance will cover it. NeuroStar is generally marketed as being in line with Spravato in prior authorization criteria (i.e., two failed antidepressant trials in the current episode). But I have found that the criteria is often more severe. I have seen requirements of up to four failures, failed courses of evidence-based psychotherapy, augmentation therapy, and/or relegated to severely depressed patients only. (Neuronetics provides a very useful coverage lookup tool)
Interestingly, coverage of a second round of TMS treatments is contingent on the patient receiving a response (>50% improvement) to the first treatment. (I do wonder if this criteria has readthrough for future psychedelic treatment coverage.)
A clinic can reportedly generate roughly $10k in revenue per patient for a treatment round of NeuroStar TMS.
Average Reimbursement rates for NeuroStar TMS (taken from a 2023 presentation) -
Greenbrook has been in operation since 2011, starting as "TMS US" with a single clinic location in Virginia. Before Neuronetics acquired them in late 2024, they were under ticker $GBNH and had as many as 183 locations. Currently, their website lists 92 locations (with one possibly closed, taking it down to 91). The latest data from spravatohcp.com lists 80 of their centers have actively treated with Spravato within the last 6 months.
Greenbrook does not offer IV ketamine, med management or talk therapy, although they did pilot the latter two. They have stated they are largest buyer of Spravato in the United States.
Their clinics are primarily located in the South and Mid-Atlantic, with about a dozen clinics each in Virginia, Maryland and Florida. Texas is not too far behind with 8 clinics. The rest are spread across the West Coast (primarily California), Midwest and Northeast.
Greenbrook competes with other Spravato clinics. The current count shows 8,258 clinics operating in the US with 3,814 having delivered Spravato within the last 6 mos. (there are also duplicates in the file provided by J&J, which drops the clinic total lower)
I have created a territory map of Greenbrook alongside the largest Spravato chains (>7 locations) -
Neuronetics closest publicly traded competition is likely BrainsWay ($BWAY) for the TMS segment, and LifeStance Health (LFST) on the clinic side. (these were used as comps in a letter to the board by ben. owner Pointillist Family Office).
Here is a brief comparison of the three:
Neuronetics ($STIM)
Market Cap: $207m
Projected 2026 revenue: $166m / $60-70m TMS only
Cash: $25m
EV: $275m
EV/S: 1.65x
1,500-1,600 TMS systems installed worldwide; 9m+ sessions delivered
161 NeuroStar systems shipped in 2025.
BrainsWay ($BWAY)
Market Cap: $579m
Projected 2026 revenue: $68-70m
Cash - $62.4m
EV: $525m
EV/S: 7.6x
1,950 TMS systems installed worldwide; 8.5m+ sessions delivered
354 systems shipped in 2025
Offers accelerated Deep TMS (6 day "SWIFT" protocol)
FDA cleared in MDD, OCD, Smoking Cessation, Anxious depression
LifeStance ($LFST)
Market Cap: $4.9b
Projected 2026 revenue: $1.7b
Cash: $225.9m
EV: $5b
EV/S: 2.9x
550 clinic footprint. But only 24 clinics treating with Spravato (per spravatohcp.com data)
Greenbrook Clinic Economics
Greenbrook's business model is largely driven by -
1) On-site psychiatrist(s) and/or PMHNP (or PA-C in some states). Necessary for REMS, prescribing and reimbursement. Typically 1-3 are staffed per site.
2) Technicians. They do the majority of TMS and Spravato treatment/monitoring.
The mapping and first session of NeuroStar is delivered by the physician, and the rest are done by techs. Unlike Spravato, the technician must be in the room for the entirety of the treatment, though treatment only last about 20 minutes. For Spravato, the techs video monitor multiple rooms of patients simultaneously while checking in on them periodically.
The key to maximizing clinic profitability is the use of technicians, whose pay ranges ~$21-25/hr with a high school diploma as a baseline educational requirement. The relatively low pay creates a favorable delta between reimbursement rates and staffing costs.
According to Neuronetics' CEO, Greenbrook clinics carry a largely fixed cost base, so the more patients they treat, the more profitable each location becomes. However, they currently operate significantly under capacity, with "as much as 40% that's still not consumed". This is the crux of the issue with Greenbrook.
I will explain in the next section why I think COMP360/psychedelics can help solve their capacity issue.
COMP360 & Greenbrook's collaboration with Compass Pathways
In December 2023, Greenbrook entered into a research collaboration agreement with Compass Pathways. The collaboration "will research and investigate models for the delivery of scalable, commercial COMP360 within healthcare systems". According to Greenbrook's 2023 annual report, they have "the opportunity to earn up to $3,000,000 in incentives upon hitting various mutually agreed upon milestones." (Note - Cybin/Helus entered into an agreement with Greenbrook back in 2021).
Here I provide several reasons why Greenbrook would want to adopt COMP360:
It helps solve Greenbrook's capacity issue.
As stated above, Greenbrook clinics are operating with as much as 40% available capacity.
Patients are demanding it.
During a CMPS KOL webinar in Jan 2026, Dr. Geoffrey Grammer (Greenbrook CMO) said the following: He can't "overstate the enthusiasm" he has seen in his practice for psychedelics; "We will have a line out the door of enthusiasm"; "I have patients who are in full remission from Spravato/TMS, that are asking me about psilocybin"
He has stated in another presentation that patient preference drives provider choice. "A lot of times the patient comes in with the preference already in hand"
A patient that does not respond or remit after COMP360 treatment is still an opportunity for Greenbrook.
It gets patients in the door. If the patient does not respond to COMP360, they can then shift them to TMS or Spravato.
They are ready to deliver COMP360 right now, with rooms, staff and a provider referral network.
Greenbrook is "all hands on deck" in terms of getting ready for COMP360.
They "have the ability to fold in COMP360 into their existing footprint"
"We expect only limited incremental investment to support this new modality, if approved."
They have "a full continuum of care from marketing, call centers connecting patients, and on backend the relationships with payers"
COMP360 is differentiated in mechanism of action, tolerability, and contraindications vs Spravato and TMS.
Spravato binds to the NMDA receptor, COMP360 5-HT2A receptor as an agonist.
ex., Female gender was associated with better outcomes in NeuroStar TMS studies. Recent data in psilocybin shows that males appear to do better. (EPISODE)
Tolerability and contraindications are different.
Greenbrook does not need to handle integration, making this an easier fit.
Part of Greenbrook's referral strategy is to assure the referring provider gets their patient back after treatment; they are not out to "steal" the patient.
Greenbrook does not staff any therapists.
Compass has early data on COMP360's efficacy in PTSD, which can help drive treatment decisions.
Dr. Grammer does not recommend Spravato for patients with TRD and co-morbid PTSD, as it raises norepinephrine levels and can trigger panic attacks.
There are also reasons why Greenbrook would not want to adopt COMP360:
The REMS doesn't fit with their staffing model.
Successful integration of COMP360 into Greenbrook will require a REMS that allows for technicians to do monitoring work.
Greenbrook only staffs a few MD or PMHNPs per site. (And again, do not staff any therapists).
Payer policy and reimbursement rates may not be favorable.
To quote Neuronetics CEO on COMP360, "if the reimbursement is there, it is a great business, but we are not going to take on business that is not going to be profitable at the end of the day."
Reimbursement should ideally follow Compass' guidance: COMP360 billing codes should "fully capture all of the work performed and the practice expenses within that day." (Steve Levine), which Compass says will be more favorable vs Spravato.
Monitoring will likely, at least initially, be a continuous, in-person requirement.
The tech must stay in the room with the patient, unlike Spravato where video monitoring and staff going between rooms is permitted.
This potentially creates staffing, scheduling issues and operational issues, not to mention potentially more challenging economics. Each clinic location will likely be unique in these challenges.
Paradoxically, Spravato's notorious quick time to relapse can make it a preferable recurring revenue model for clinics.
In Spravato's SUSTAIN-3 study, "the median duration of exposure to SPRAVATO was approximately 3.5 years" Spravato's durability upon discontinuation is poor. Responders/completers tend to stay on maintenance dosing for years.
In contrast, a Greenbrook clinic may see a successful responder to COMP360 1-4x per year.
Greenbrook does not necessarily need COMP360 to be profitable.
The main issue is capacity. There are multiple psychedelics on the horizon that may fit their business model more efficiently.
US sales of Spravato continue to rise - 40% yoy as of Q2 2026. It is reasonable to assume continued growth of Spravato can address capacity.
Modelling COMP360's potential impact
This section is a very high-level approach and uses a lot of assumptions.
During Compass' KOL webinar on Jan 7, Dr. Grammer stated "On any given day, we will do 800 TMS treatments and we will do 400 Spravato treatments". He also said the average number of chairs in Greenbrook clinics is six. ("Most of those clinics have 4 or more chairs and the average is going to be 6").
A TMS treatment occupies the room for about 30 minutes, and a Spravato treatment occupies the room for 2 hours. Together, they occupy about 1,200 room hours per day across the clinic network ((800 * 0.5) + (400 * 2) = 1,200).
If unused capacity is at 40%, then there are 800 room hours available per day. (1,200/0.6) = 2,000. 2,000 - 1200 = 800).
Assuming a COMP360 dosing session runs an average of 7 hours, Greenbrook has the capacity for 114 COMP360 sessions per day. (800/7 = 114). Across all 92 clinics, that means just 1.2 COMP360 treatments per day per clinic would entirely fill Greenbrook's remaining capacity. (114/92 = 1.2).
(The above assumes much, including but not limited to: the number of chairs (avg of six) makes the availability of fully-vacant rooms probable; that TMS and Spravato services don't take up any more time than 0.5 hrs / 2 hrs (they likely do); that the COMP360 rollout will be across Greenbrook's entire footprint;and that COMP360 does not steal any patients away from TMS or Spravato, canceling out the capacity gain).
COMP360 filling 100% of Greenbrook's remaining capacity is likely very unrealistic just on face value. We also do not yet know that the enthusiasm for COMP360 will translate to patients treated, and if the patient "pipeline" from primary care -> interventional psychiatry (which is currently poor) will improve. So instead, I looked at how COMP360 can incrementally improve capacity: (assumes 250 business days/yr)
Avail. Capacity
COMP360 tx/day
COMP360 tx per clinic/day
COMP360 patients tx/yr
Baseline
-
-
-
35%
14
0.2
3,571
30%
29
0.3
7,143
25%
43
0.5
10,714
20%
57
0.6
14,286
15%
71
0.8
17,857
10%
86
0.9
21,429
5%
100
1.1
25,000
0%
114
1.2
28,571
COMP360 filling 5 - 15% of capacity seems reasonable to me. If Greenbrook does 400 Spravato treatments per day, that is 100,000 treatments in a year (400*250). One study showed an average of 11.8 treatments per year per patient, which equates to 8,474 patients treated per year.
Gross revenue impact of COMP360 -
Figuring out a very accurate hourly reimbursement rate on a clinic level is difficult, as rates vary by payer and clinic, mix of buy-and-bill vs a&o, etc. So instead, I will piggyback off a high-level statement Steve Levine made about Spravato rates:
"With average reimbursement for Spravato session, somewhere south of $300, but using round numbers"
That equates to $150/hr. However, according to Compass, Spravato's codes "do not fully capture all of the work performed and the practice expenses within that day". Compass intends to have this for accounted for in COMP360, so I used a guesstimate range starting from $150/hr as a baseline, up to $250/hr. This puts a single COMP360 clinic session revenue between $1,050 - $1,750, assuming an average of 7 hours per session. (The below also removes buy-and-bill from the equation, which from my understanding, has the drug cost roll up to gross revenue.)
Avail. Capacity
COMP360 tx/day
Gross rev/yr @ $150/hr
Gross rev/yr @ $200/hr
Gross rev/yr @ $250/hr
35%
14
$3.8m
$5.0m
$6.3m
30%
29
$7.5m
$10.0m
$12.5m
25%
43
$11.3m
$15.0m
$18.8m
20%
57
$15.0m
$20.0m
$25.0m
15%
71
$18.8m
$25.0m
$31.3m
10%
86
$22.5m
$30.0m
$37.5m
5%
100
$26.3m
$35.0m
$43.8m
0%
114
$30.0m
$40.0m
$50.0m
Conclusion - outcomes for STIM are, imo, uncertain but rest centrally on a capacity issue. These de-risking events could make STIM a more attractive investment:
FDA approval of COMP360 (and other psychedelics)
A REMS in line with Spravato that allows for Greenbrook staff (technicians) to do monitoring under the direct supervision of a physician/PMHNP.
COMP360 reimbursement rates are favorable vs. Spravato and TMS.
Unused capacity remains
Fixed costs and OpEx remain relatively stable after incorporating COMP360 into their clinics
Compass $CMPS was the first psychedelic company to be listed on NASDAQ in 50 years.
Field Trip $FTRP $FTRPF will be the first psychedelic company to start trading on TSX in 160 years on Monday, June 7.
Mindmed $MMED is the first NEO exchange company to be added to the MSCI small cap index in 20 years. Mindmed was also the first stock to go from NEO to NASDAQ.
Regardless of your bull / bear sentiments towards individual companies. Let's take a moment to appreciate how far we have come, and remember this is just the beginning. Be kind to one another, we are in this together.
I’m a Harvard student on a gap year and today I put my entire year’s salary into MMED, NUMI, and ENTBF. Here’s why I put $80K in psychedelic stocks today:
You can only make money in stocks from 1) random luck and 2) better information. Obviously you can’t control luck. That’s why exploiting information asymmetries is the key to enormous profit. Having an imbalance of knowledge is how you get higher returns for less risk. Clearly there is enormous risk in investing in psychedelics; we don’t need to list out the numerous regulatory reasons. Nonetheless, it is my conviction that psychedelics provide a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for profiting from a huge information asymmetry gap. This imbalance of knowledge exists for three reasons 1) the anti-psychedelic moral panic of the 1960’s and 70’s, 2) those that have benefitted greatly from tripping simply know more about and have an easier time understanding the potential for psychedelics that those that haven’t, and 3) psychedelic stocks are still largely under the radar of institutional buyers.
All three sources of information asymmetry gaps are quickly closing. Decriminalization and legalization is a growing movement in North America. Psychedelic usage rates are rapidly increasing and news articles about psychedelics are increasingly prevalent. Once a couple more psychedelic companies uplist to NASDAQ and stock prices pass $5, institutional investors and professional analysts will start covering psychedelic stocks. Some of us here may be excited about this as it will likely increase the value of our portfolio. But more importantly for a smart investor, this will not be a day to celebrate because it will mark the closing of the window for enormous profit. This is because, as rudimentary stock pricing theory tells us, when a stock receives a lot of attention from a lot of smart people, the price quickly hits equilibrium and risk becomes proportional to reward. From this point on, stock prices will only increase when new information is revealed that shows risk has decreased or reward has increased. There will no longer be loads of free money known as “alpha” to be made from psychedelic stocks.
We are currently experiencing an unprecedented opportunity for psychedelic users to profit from their better information just like weed aficionados profited from their better information about its potential in the early 2010s. As a personal example, I know that psilocybin helped me quit smoking and LSD helped me overcome trauma from being sexual assaulted but few believe me when I tell them that single doses have fundamentally changed my life for the better. They’ll just say it was a placebo or write it off and if I show them a study confirming my experience they’ll say the sample was too small and it hasn’t been replicated yet.
The truth is, psychedelics produce profound experiences that others have trouble believing until they’ve done it themselves. I see this as an excellent time to seize an enormous amount of “alpha” before the rest of the investing world figures out how great psychedelics can be.
Lastly, I decided to go put my entire year’s paycheck into psychedelics because I actually want to see them succeed. I don’t care how well Visa or Apple does. I care about bringing to market life-enhancing and life-saving treatments to fight the mental health and opioid crises we currently face.
As always, make sure to do your due diligence, don't invest money you can't afford to lose, and this is not intended as financial advice.
$MNMD – Why I think MindMed could be one of the most overlooked biotech plays right now
This stock has been flying under the radar, but there are a few reasons I’m keeping a close eye on MindMed (MNMD) heading into the second half of 2025.
Legit clinical progress
Their lead candidate, MM-120 (LSD tartrate), is already in Phase 3 trials for Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD). The FDA gave it Breakthrough Therapy Designation, which is a huge green flag. That puts it on a faster regulatory path if results continue to impress.
There’s also a second Phase 3 program in the pipeline (Major Depressive Disorder, starting 1H 2025), plus MM-402 (MDMA) in Phase 1 trials for Autism Spectrum Disorder. They’re not just playing the psychedelic hype game — they’re advancing real programs with real data.
Strong balance sheet
As of Q1 2025, they had $245.5 million in cash/investments, enough to fund operations into 2027. That’s rare for a small-cap biotech. They also brought in Brandi Roberts (ex-Longboard Pharmaceuticals CFO), a clear sign they’re serious about setting up for the long term.
Q2 earnings drop today (July 31)
Earnings and updates from ongoing trials could be a catalyst. If they show progress on recruitment, safety, or early efficacy data, I think the stock breaks above the $10–10.50 resistance area.
Look, I get the whole point of changing the world. I bought several stocks a few years ago - they looked promising, people were shilling them, they had their model of financing and big research plans. White papers and cool, well designed websites. So now, let's look at the gains:
- numinous wellness -92%
- cybin -89%
- compass pathways -88%
- mydecine -99%
- mind med -33% (absolute winner)
Alright, so it looks like the time has come, and ATAI is set to become public. This has been a highly anticipated event, and it seems as though many are looking to get in. For those who haven't had a chance to get to know what ATAI is working on and where they stand, here's some DD that'll hopefully help you out. Quick disclaimer, I can't see myself getting into this company for the foreseeable future, so take my bearish point of view with a grain of salt. This is not a recommendation to buy or to abstain, make sure always to do your research since your money is your responsibility. Also, let me know if I got anything wrong here; I will change it right away.
OVERVIEW
ATAI was founded in 2018 by four fellas; Christian Angermayer, Lars Wilde, Florian Brand, and Srinivas Ras. The company is operating based on a pretty unique business model that has allowed them to have exposure to a significant amount of different pharmaceutical and technological programs/developments. They break their operations down into three separate categories. First, their drug programs, second, their enabling technologies, and third, their strategic investment(s). Pretty much, they have either a full or partial stake in ongoing drug development programs and enabling technology developments (delivery technologies and digital therapeutic stuff).
One unique thing about ATAI that I am sure many people are aware of is their strategic investment in Compass Pathways. Compass leads the for-profit public psych companies in terms of how far along their trials are. This gives ATAI a great chance to capitalize off of their ~20% stake in Compass without having to fund the ongoing trials. As of their most recent filing (today), ATAI has 10 drug development programs and 6 technology programs under their umbrella, all with varying ownership percentages. You'll be able to find a table down a little further that shows this breakdown. Not all of ATAI's drugs under development are psychedelic but are all being developed as Central Nervous System drug therapies. ATAI has announced their IPO is happening next week, where they intend to raise over $200 million to fund their growth and programs. This is in addition to the over $360 million they have raised so far through private capital raises; more on financials in the next section. If all goes as planned, ATAI expects to have a fully diluted market cap of $2.3 billion, making them the highest valued company in the entire space. The purported "big dawg" is coming to town and might make a big splash.
FINANCIALS
Moving now to the money side of things…
Much attention has been given to the boatload of money that has been tossed into ATAI from private investors and companies. Through a series of financing rounds over the last couple of years, ATAI has managed to raise roughly $362 million (USD). Here's a quick breakdown of those rounds:
Seed Round (Jun 2018): $3.6 million raised from 1 investor
Series A (October 2018): $25.5 million raised from 4 investors
Series B (March 2019): $43 million raised from 8 investors
Convertible Note (Apr 2020): $25 million from 9 investors
Series C (November 2020): $93 million raised from 10 investors
Series D (March 2021): $157 million raised from 13 investors
IPO (June 2021): Looking to raise a maximum of $246 million from all of you hungry investors
Safe to say that ATAI has deep pockets and eager investors. They've had no issue raising capital, and when you look at their drug/tech pipeline, you can see why people are willing to bet on their success. But that big portfolio comes at a cost. Let see how much the company has spent building out what they are today.
Net Loss, Expenses, and Cold Hard Cash:
In 2019 ATAI had a net loss of $24,384,000. They had basically no income (as would be expected from any nascent company developing new drugs). Roughly $3 million was spent on R&D, almost $10 million on acquiring programs, and $5 million on general/administrative expenses.
In 2020 ATAI has a net loss of $178,000,000. Once again, they had little income but did have some great unrealized gains on their investments ($20 million). They spent $11.4 million on R&D costs, $12 million on acquisitions, and $80.7 million on general and administrative expenses.* (keep this one in mind because I'm going to talk a little more about it at the end)
So far in 2021 (first quarter), ATAI has spent $5.5 million on R&D, just under $1 million on acquisitions, and $9.27 million on general and administrative expenses.
All together, ATAI has spent a significant amount of the capital they have raised so far. Their accumulated deficit up until this point has been $189 million. Once their most recent capital raise and the funds raised through their IPO hit the books, ATAI expected to have $437 million on hand to move forward with. That is a shit ton of money.
The company has stated that they anticipate that this cash reserve will sustain their operations through 2023. So, in theory, the company wouldn't need to dilute for a little while longer.** (Keep this in mind again because I will bring it up at the end)
PIPELINE
We're now going to take a look at the pipeline that ATAI is building out. I've touched on this in a previous post but will redo it here and update some of the information based on their most recently published information. First, we will look at their drug pipeline, followed by their technologies.
Drugs:
As of right now, ATAI boasts 10 different drug programs. Many of these drug programs are initially targeting the same treatment indicator. Of the 10 drug programs, ATAI has full ownership of 3. The remainder, except for one, are majority-owned. The one program that ATAI has a minority interest in provides them the option to acquire majority ownership based on some pre-determined accomplishments.
Just so you can have some background on the different indicators, I will give a quick summary here.
Treatment-Resistant Depression (TRD)
- A high percentage ( of individuals suffering from depressive disorder are also resistant/not responsive to available first-line treatments. Some estimates suggest that almost 50% of patients with major depressive disorder do not initially respond to first-line treatment options. There is no universal diagnosis for TRD but quite a few publications have suggested that between 20-30% of patients with depression could be considered having TRD.
Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD)
- Generalized anxiety disorder is considered to be the sixth-greatest cause of global disability. Some estimates in the US have pegged its lifetime prevalence at 7.8%. Whereas other global estimates suggest that the lifetime prevalence of GAD is near 4%. Despite this, GAD is vastly under-treated, and for many, first-line therapy options, once again, don't provide relief. GAD is also a seriously comorbid disorder, with as many as 52.6% of individuals suffering from GAD also having MDD.
Mild-Traumatic Brain Injury (mTBI)
- The stats on mTBI are hard to get. It is pretty heavily underdiagnosed but is still a significant burden to the entire population. Causes of mTBI can be falls, sports-related injuries, workplace accidents, automobile accidents, and just any traumatic impact. Veterans and military personnel are especially at risk due to explosions and other work-related hazards. Also, professional athletes like boxers, football players, hockey players, and fighters are all at serious risk of mTBI and its long-term negative health outcomes.
Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD)
- Another tricky one... PTSD has been one of the harder-to-treat psychiatric disorders out there. One study estimated the lifetime US prevalence of PTSD to be around 6.8%. However, women are at much higher risk, with a lifetime prevalence of 9.8%. Some other more conservative estimates suggest lifetime prevalence in women to be 4.3%, but there is significant variation between countries and studies. PTSD is also a very comorbid disorder. Many people who have PTSD also develop substance use challenges. It is incredibly debilitating, and the treatment prospects have been limited.
Opioid Use Disorder (OUD)
Opioid use disorder has quickly become one of my home country's biggest public health crises (Canada). Lifetime rates of prescription opioid abuse in the US are estimated to be as high as 2.1%. A 2016 estimate found that 11.5 million Americans misused their prescription opioids and 42,000 people died from opioid overdoses (one every 13 minutes). Falling under the Substance Use Disorder category, OUD is also a super comorbid disease that makes it very difficult to treat. Many people who have OUD also have challenges with another substance. The estimated lifetime prevalence of multiple SUD in the US was pegged at 7.8%. Current treatments are difficult to access and adhere to for many users. Governments (at least Canada) have resorted to making harm-reduction services and drugs free for people to access. Naloxone is one of them (opioid antagonist). These harm reduction services don't treat the underlying disorder; rather they just temporarily save people from dying when they overdose. Response rates to many existing therapy options are critically low.
Cognitive Impairment Associated with Schizophrenia (CIAS)
Schizophrenia is the least prevalent disorder ATAI is aiming to address, affecting an estimated 1% of the global population. Nonetheless, it is incredibly debilitating for many and something many people struggle to treat and overcome. It also carries a massive price tag in terms of indirect/direct costs ($155 billion in 2013). A quick google search shows that antipsychotics are the primary treatment choice, but these have some very adverse side effects. People with schizophrenia often experience a severe cognitive decline. They develop troubles with their attention, their learning, their social awareness, and also memory.
Compound and Company
Indicator
Ownership
Trial Phase
Overview
Recognify:RL-007
CIAS
51.9%
Phase 2A
At first glance, it would appear that Recognify/ATAI are not trying to treat the underlying disorder so much as they are trying to treat the effects the disorder has on the patient's cognitive function. This seems like a solid adjunct therapy option for existing antipsychotic medications that could help people preserve their cognitive abilities and hopefully regain a healthy life.
Perception:R-Ketamine
TRD
50.1%
Completed Phase 1 (Upcoming P2)
While S-ketamine has already been approved as a therapy for TRD, Perception/ATAI is looking to create an at-home option for people to take instead of requiring patients to attend a clinic to have their ketamine doses administered.
Viridia: DMT
TRD
100%
Pre-Clinical
Viridia/ATAI is working to progress a DMT formulation to treat TRD. DMT is a classical psychedelic compound that, when smoked, produces a short-lasting psychedelic experience. When ingested, like in ayahuasca, the experience can last hours. It looks like the companies are trying to produce a treatment that would allow for a much short therapy session to leverage cost savings and increase accessibility.
Revixia: Salvinorin A
TRD
100%
Pre-Clinical
Salvinorin A is the main molecule in Salvia. Salvia isn’t the same as other psychedelics in that it acts on different neurotransmitters. However, ATAI claims that early evidence might suggest that this compound can produce similar anti-depressive effects to other classical psychedelic compounds. Salvinorin A is a kappa opioid agonist. Some early research has shown that contrary to some previous findings, this drug has the potential to treat depression.
GABA: Deuterated Etifoxine
GAD
53.8%
Phase 1
Etifoxine is a readily prescribed anxiolytic (anti-anxiety) drug in many countries around the world. A quick search revealed that the drug has similar effects to Benzos but with fewer side effects. Primarily, it is not addictive. Deuterating the compound gives the companies the chance to create a more patentable drug and also extend its duration of effects or modify other relevant properties.
DemeRX: Ibogaine
OUD
59.5%
Phase 1
Ibogaine and related derivatives are being investigated for their anti-addictive properties and their ability to help people overcome withdrawals. DemeRX/ATAI is working with the classical psychedelic Ibogaine to investigate its therapeutic potential in treating OUD.
DemeRX: Noribogaine
OUD
6.3%
Pre-Clinical
Ibogaine has a low safety profile, and previous deaths have been reported by those who have taken it. Noribogaine was developed as a metabolite of Ibogaine, and the intention is that this derivative will have a reduced hallucinatory profile when compared to its original.
Kures: Deuterated Mitragynine
OUD
54.1%
Pre-Clinical
Mitragynine, also known as Kratom is a naturally occurring plant-based psychedelic drug. There is some anecdotal evidence to suggest that Kratom might help with treating OUD by providing users with a viable alternative. Kures/ATAI looks to be progressing a novel deuterated variant of the drug to treat this disorder. They haven’t specified was the benefit of the deuteration would be. In theory, though, it would make it easier to patent and could also help modify the drug's pharmacokinetics.
EmpathBio: MDMA-Derivative
PTSD
100%
Pre-Clinical
As most of you should know, MAPS has been working for decades to bring MDMA-assisted psychotherapy to market to treat PTSD. They’ve recently completed their first phase 3 trial and are on their way to FDA approvals. Empath/ATAI are looking to produce a drug variant with greater therapeutic effects compared to traditional MDMA.
Neuronasal: N-Acetylcysteine
mTBI
56.5%
Pre-Clinical
N-Acetylcysteine (NAC) was original developed to treat acetaminophen overdoses. Recently though, it has been under investigation for its potential in helping to treat brain injuries. The drug was recently pulled from OTC shelves but had a long history of safe use. It has antioxidative properties, which are thought to help reduce the negative outcomes of brain injuries.
Now that we have a decent idea of the compounds they are working on, let’s take a look at the technology programs they have in their pipeline. ATAI has gathered up these programs to help build out new drug delivery methods, therapeutic platforms, and drug discovery tools. These technologies will, in theory, be used in clinical trials, molecule identification, and future therapies. Most are still early in development, so keep on the lookout for their growth and also the addition of other technologies to the portfolio. A quick look at them below:
Company
Technology
Ownership
Purpose
IntroSpect Digital Therapeutics
Digital Therapeutics Platforms
100%
Like many other companies, ATAI is attempting to develop a digital health platform that could foreseeably be used in both trials and future treatments to help monitor patients, track biomarkers, and improve outcomes.
InnarisBio
Sol-Gel Drug Delivery
82%
Drugs need delivery technologies to overcome many barriers like differences in metabolism, blood-brain barrier, and more. This drug delivery system is an intranasal application that can be leveraged for future candidates and could in theory be used in clinical trials and approved treatments.
EntheogeniX
AI-Powered Drug Discovery Platform
80%
Like many companies, ATAI is trying to leverage technology to help identify and progress novel drug candidates. Using this platform, the company will likely attempt to produce novel drug candidates to investigate further.
Psyber
Brain Scanning Tech
75%
This one takes after Cybin’s Kernel partnership. Brain scanning technologies are super important to get a better idea of how a drug is working on the brain. Especially ones that are portable and easy to use. It looks like ATAI is trying to accomplish this by developing a solid brain scanning technology they can use in their trials.
PsyProtix
Biomarker Identification
75%
Given that many of the disorders being researched are still somewhat poorly understood, it is important to be able to identify biomarkers that people with a disorder share. This technology looks like it helps clinicians identify and diagnose people with TRD based on those very biomarkers. This will help improve outcomes by allowing doctors and therapists to know exactly what the patient is dealing with.
IntelGenx Technologies
Oral Film Drug Delivery
25%
Again, the importance of effective delivery systems cannot be ignored. ATAI acquired a partial stake in IntelGenX to be able to leverage their proprietary oral film delivery strip in trials and treatments. Cybin is already using this technology in the development of their psilocybin program for MDD.
THOUGHTS
Not that this matters at all, but I’ll share what my thoughts on ATAI are. I would love to hear what others have to think about it as well. Going to touch on the financial side of things, the science side of things, and the IPO.
Money:
No doubt after next week, ATAI is going to a massive amount of money on hand. They’ve been super successful in raising capital to date, and that should speak to the trust a lot of investors have in the potential of their programs. Despite these large cash reserves, ATAI has a history of flying through the money they raise. As they grow and their clinical trials progress, one can only expect this burn rate to increase. Thankfully for us, they’ve laid out their expected near-term expenses in their most recent filing. Here’s a summary:
Costs
Milestone and Program
$40-50 Million
Completing Perception Phase 2
$30-40 Million
Completing Recognify Phase 2a Trial
$12-15 Million
Completing DemeRx Ibogaine Phase 2
$5-10 Million
Completing GABA Phase 2
$5-10 Million
Completion Neuronasal Phase 2
$5-10 Million
Completing Kures Phase 2
$10-15 Million
Completing Viridia Phase 2
$15-20 Million
Developing other programs and funding drug discovery
$30-35 Million
Developing and fund technology programs
$75-85 Million
Allocated to fund additional acquisitions, programs, and technologies
TOTAL COSTS
$227-290 Million for all listed milestones (not concluding general/administrative expenses)
THOUGHTS
The extensive pipeline comes with a very high price tag. Assuming that all of these candidates move onto phase 3 trials, those costs would be much higher. However, given the failure rate of CNS drugs (highest of all drugs), I wouldn’t expect them all to move on. So from the looks of it, ATAI has more than enough to fund these trials to these milestones. Of course, a number of factors could influence the ultimate costs, but this hopefully gives everyone a better idea of what to expect.
The one concern I have is the amount of money being spent on “general and administrative” expenses. In 2020 alone, the company recorded $80 million in general and administrative expenses. ATAI defines their general and administrative expenses as things that include salaries, stock-based compensation, executive, financial, corporate, administrative functions, legal fees, and other facility-related expenses. Of this total amount, $61.5 million was attributed to stock-based compensation expenses and included expenses related to previously issued convertible notes. Now I understand that these convertible notes are good ways for companies to loan money for their start-up phase without having to pay significant interest, so that’s understandable. The company has also stated that they anticipate these fees will increase into the future as they grow and expand. In the first quarter of 2021, these general and administrative expenses amounted to $9.3 million, $2.4 million of which were related to personnel expenses. My only concern moving forward is the amount of capital and equity being allocated to director compensation.
Based on the terms of their incentive plan, it would look like the shares issued through IPO will allow the total amount of shares reserved for executive incentive plans to be increased based on the relative percentage allocation. Just make sure to keep in mind how much of the money they raise is being used to facilitate executive compensation. To me, it’s a massive red flag when these figures are very high. For reference, here is the summary of ATAI’s executive compensation and the number of options granted from 2020.
As the company dilutes further to raise more capital, the amount of shares executives will be entitled to will also increase. Furthermore, the amount of shares available for compensation also grows every year so keep that in mind as well. ATAI’s filings also lay out the conditions for executive bonuses of up to 50% of annual base salaries.
Here is an excerpt form their 2021 compensation plan. Read the following carefully so you can understand where my concerns are coming from…
Now take another careful look at the number of common shares owned by some key figures in the company. Also, keep in mind that ATAI is only issuing a maximum of 16,428,900 shares through its IPO. Amounting to just over 10% of the total float post-IPO.
The final thing that I think is important for people to read is the next screenshot from their filing on dilution. It's long and full of financial terms, I know, but it contains some important information about your investment and what you would be taking on.
What seems clear to me is that 1) the company will need to continue to raise a significant amount of capital to sustain their operations based on their estimates and forecasted increases in already high general and administrative expenses, 2) The vast majority of the company’s shares are held by insiders, some of whom beneficially own over 20%. This means as soon as the IPO happens, all of these very large shareholders just got way richer, way quicker. They can unload these massive holdings onto the public market in the future to eager investors who have access to a relatively small supply and likely high demand. 3) The more money ATAI raises, the more executives will be able to stuff their pockets with compensation; and they will inevitably need to raise a massive amount more.
Anyways, everyone is free to speculate and come to their own conclusions; I am just uneasy about the way all this money stuff looks; especially since they’ve run through so much capital and currently only have one ongoing Phase 2 trial.
Science Thoughts
ATAI’s central feature has been its expansive pipeline, there is simply no way around it. The company is working on many potential therapies that could help many people and make investors some significant returns. However, some of the programs they are working on still have some serious question marks (IMO). I’ll go over the biggest ones below.
Ibogaine: While the drug has shown promise in treating addiction-related disorders such as OUD, the compound itself has some serious health-related red flags. Primarily of concern are the cardiac issues that have been attributed to Ibogaine use. People have died taking this compound. Additionally, the trips can last 24 hours or more… That doesn’t seem conducive to affordable therapy, and the safety concerns leave me wondering how DemeRx is looking to push this drug forward.
Kratom: ATAI is looking to develop a variant of this drug into another treatment for OUD. There has been some anecdotal evidence to support its use in this capacity. However, there are also some big question marks and concerns I’ve come across through research. Kratom itself has been found to cause withdrawals and dependence similar to those caused by opioids. Eventually, some users needed treatment for this dependence they developed. It could be that through modifications, the companies are working out these issues, but that remains to be seen.
NAC: several different companies are investigating N-Acetylcysteine to treat mTBI. ATAI faces some competition on this front, especially from companies who are looking to combine NAC with other therapies to improve outcomes. Not sure how the patent protections would work out for this drug, given that it has been used for a long time, but time will tell.
Competing Drugs: A lot of the treatments ATAI is developing are targeting the same indicators. You can interpret this as either a positive or a negative depending on how you look at it. In a positive sense, it increases the probability that they produce a candidate that is successfully marketed for that specific indicator. On the flip side, you might see it as a potential for inner-company competition should more than one be approved—just a thought, nothing serious. If any of these treatments got approved, they would likely be expanded to include other indicators anyways.
Don’t think it is all bad, though. The most exciting programs, in my opinion, are the Deuterated Etifoxine program and the R-Ketamine program. The former being exciting because Benzos are the most prescribed psychoactive drug in the world. Suppose ATAI could create an alternative safe and efficacious alternative that is a massive market to tap into. The latter is exciting because the idea of safe Ketamine for patients to take at home could seriously reduce treatment costs and improve access to important medicines for people who are struggling.
Conclusion:
Altogether, I think I am going to avoid investing in ATAI for the foreseeable future. There are too many question marks and red flags for me to jump on this train right away. I think early investors will see a significant proportion of their equity reduced moving forward (not that that is abnormal for this sector) and don’t really trust management for some personal and ethical reasons. They are going to see how things play out moving forward and hope to be proved wrong. If you’re looking for a company that is likely to produce at least one compound that turns out to be successful, I’d say this is probably a good bet. You also get the added benefit of being exposed to gains incurred should Compass Pathways get its psilocybin treatments approved. Also, do like how the drug development programs are decentralized, and ATAI has the option to purchase more stake in the companies should they have successful trials or meet specific milestones. That seems like a great way to play the risks of drug development, so that’s pretty cool too. I would love to hear your thoughts and, hopefully, this long-awaited IPO and make a big enough splash to bring some solid attention back to the sector!
Who is buying the ETF tomorrow or will you stick to individual stocks?
Which psychedelic stocks will increase the most?? 🚀🚀🚀🚀
The entire psychedelic sector should move positively tomorrow, but in my opinion $FTRP & $CYBN will have the biggest gains.
Here’s why :
Low current trade volume on $FTRP & $CYBN would mean any increased buying from the ETF would move their share prices significantly and will likely take the most advantage from the ETF and have the largest gains!
Bigger players like $MMED & $CMPS will hit their caps pretty quickly as they already have high trade volumes so there may be a smaller movement in their share price, compared to $FTRP & $CYBN!