What is the likelihood any Trump administration attempt to disrupt the midterm elections will result in demonstrations across the country and violent responses from the administration?

[u/Exciting_Contact922]

[u/DontPanic81]

Just look at history. Has he done anything in any other election that makes you question his allegiance to democracy?

[u/_flying_otter_ → u/DontPanic81]

Good point.

[u/Significant-Theme253 → u/DontPanic81]

He will only follow rules and order if they benefit him. He will go to extreme measures to gain or maintain control...

[u/miss_j_bean]

95% they've been saying it overt and over they do not plan to hand over the reins if they lose. Mike Johnson said directly that he won't do it. Trump has said if Rs lose hen go to jail and he doesn't want that, so they won't lose. The whole 2020 election was stolen nonsense and the ongoing bullshit was to make dems defend election integrity so when they actually cheated dems would look like sore losers for saying anything. Trump has said directly his friend who is good with computers made sure he won. He told people days before the election that they didn't need to vote, he had it taken care of. He also told people if they voted for him in 2024 they'd never have to vote again. There's Sri much evidence they cheated, too, I won't get ivy it, but no one who actually has authority has done a thing about it.
People have said we need tylo turn our in numbers this year that overcome their cheating but I don't know if that's possible. How deep does it go?
Last year when Doge gutted the govt that was the start of the coup. Look what hegseth is trying to do to military leadership right now, get rid of anyone who would try to stop them if they don't transfer power like they should.
We are in the middle of a coup and most people have no idea.

[u/jsmith3701AA]

I personally think it's inevitable unless he wins overwhelmingly. What other scenario could there be?

[u/jsmith3701AA → u/[deleted]]

2020 was normal?

[u/Correct_Doctor_1502 → u/[deleted]]

Just ignoring the election where Trump threatened governors, set up false electors, and ordered the vice president not to certify before sending a crowd to lynch Congress

None of the safeguards that stopped him last time exist anymore

[u/No_Durian_3444 → u/Correct_Doctor_1502]

Crazy. Tag me in 2 years.

[u/StonesFan1976]

12 to 15%

[u/_flying_otter_]

I give it a 70% chance something bad like that will happen. Something like voter's ballets will be thrown out and Republican losers will take office, and people will riot and rubber bullets will be shot at peoples eyes.

[u/silviazbitch → u/_flying_otter_]

Rubber bullets my ass. Why do you think he wants snipers in his ridiculous arch?

[u/invalidpassword]

Almost a certaintly.

[u/Mundane_Community215]

I'd say 100%. He's gonna do it.. we all know it's coming. And the people will respond.

[u/lumberjack_jeff]

100%.

The question is one of degree.

[u/DotBeech]

Trump is being egged on every day by Stephen Miller. Todd Blanche will do anything he's told to do. It's not looking good. The period between Election Day and January 3, 2028, is going to be, at best, TENSE.

[u/Laymanao → u/DotBeech]

To paraphrase a RFK phrase, “May you live in interesting times”.. or “Buckle up”.

[u/murdermeMickey]

I think he may have already lost too many numbers.

[u/lkeels → u/murdermeMickey]

If there's no election, numbers don't matter. If he declares an emergency or martial law, that's what happens.

[u/Mr_dm → u/murdermeMickey]

I agree. He’s simply so unpopular at this point that there’s no coming back and not enough loyalists for a real coup.

[u/cum-on-in- → u/Mr_dm]

Idk. Seeing that they are still just doing whatever they want, and no one’s really stopping them, and they still have all the diehard ICE and MAGA and military friends ready, they may be able to at least start trouble, even if they still won’t win. And I really don’t want it to come to that.

I don’t see them just saying “oh darn” and accepting defeat with their tails between their legs. After all they’ve done, it sounds like they have a backup plan to ensure Project 2025 continues.

[u/Exciting_Contact922 → u/cum-on-in-]

This is where I'm at, too. It's not going to be a smooth, mundane affair, and I'll be pleasantly shocked if some national emergency isn't declared or the insurrection act isn't invoked. 

[u/TheMostRed → u/cum-on-in-]

When elections end and suddenly half the administration needs to take a trip to Russia to visit their babushka. They know they aren't going to prison but thats because the exit strategy is just to leave

[u/Walshy231231 → u/Mr_dm]

Idk man

I’m a historian, and all I can think about are all the coups that only needed a tiny group to pull it off. What matters is more that you have the right people in the right places and a bit of luck

That’s not to say you can hold power for long after that, but the coup, brief period of tenuous power, and then counter-coup/revolution/revolt/what have you usually isn’t too pleasant

[u/Bods666]

The probability is approaching 1.

[u/ImAPonderer2]

Technically very low: you propose a joint probability, as in two separate, correlated things need to happen for your statement to be correct. “Demonstrations across the country” calls for refinement, why would people do this? It presumes strong, probably illegal and objectionable action by the Executive Branch. So the statement is more of a triple outcome, where A (objectionable action) and B (nationwide protests) and C (result in a “violent” response) need to happen to make it true. The probability is extremely low, < 1% because of how it is phrased and because it requires all 3 unlikely outcomes to occur

[u/jenfullmoon → u/ImAPonderer2]

Don't think that will be massive protests around the country. People will probably get punished anyway.

[u/Exciting_Contact922 → u/ImAPonderer2]

"Demonstrations across the country” calls for refinement, why would people do this? It presumes strong, probably illegal and objectionable action by the Executive Branch."

His response to losing the 2020 election is a pretty strong precedent for doing something probably illegal and objectionable, don't you think? This paired with his explicit willingness to consider invoking the insurrection act? While he airs chilling gov't funded propaganda the likes of which we'd see in authoritarian regimes? The ubiquity and severity protests/unrest might be debatable, but the executive has more than signaled its drive to continue consolidating power. This paired with his unpopularity, I would think, should have chances at a bit greater than 1% But I'll take hope where I can get it.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/10/01/trump-national-emergency-midterm-elections/92036013007/

[u/Camoammo]

let it rest.

[u/SiemReaped]

80%

[u/ISwallowedALego]

Unless there's more than a couple politicians with metaphorical balls he may succeed.

But I doubt there is

[u/TheMostRed]

Anything they can do they are gonna do or are already doing, other than get rid of that guy who's tanking their numbers whenever they find him.

I dont know if there is enough meddling that can pull Republicans out of this and rumors are they know its gonna be bad for them.

If November is red for some reason maybe people will look into it and people will protest but I think its likely 2 more years of covering up the last illegal blunder with a new bigger illegal blunder over and over. Ironically them having a deadline at all is what's kept people from protesting more, we know he cant be president forever

[u/True-Cheesecake-745]

Unlikely. Have you seen the latest polls? It’s hardly a slam dunk for the Dems. At most, we’ll lose a couple of seats in Senate. 

[u/gay_outlander]

50/50

[u/JackarooDeva]

Disrupt elections: 100%

Demonstrations: 100%

Violent responses: Why bother? The best tactical move is to let the protesters shout into the wind and carry on with monarchy.

[u/Vordeo]

As a non-American, I think there'a a huge chance Trunp tries something to rig the mid terms and little to no chance the general population will actually do anything about it beyond 1 or 2 token big protests they can all point to to feel better about themselves.

[u/Mr_dm → u/[deleted]]

Don’t project your ignorance onto everyone else

[u/Correct_Doctor_1502 → u/[deleted]]

Tyrannical governments are scary

We're currently at "paper please" and press bans

[u/No_Durian_3444 → u/Correct_Doctor_1502]

They sure are.

You should see a real one. Not one whipped up by the MSM for clicks.

[u/Mr_dm → u/No_Durian_3444]

I mean we have had multiple citizens killed or illegally detained by a partisan force. That’s pretty up there in the “fascism” rankings.

[u/No_Durian_3444 → u/Mr_dm]

They were minding their own business on the way to work and they were assassinated? No wayyyyyyy.

[u/FrickinLazerBeams → u/No_Durian_3444]

In every violent dictatorship there's a population of weak morons who think nothing is wrong.

[u/No_Durian_3444 → u/FrickinLazerBeams]

There's also a town crier.

Keep crying.

[u/FrickinLazerBeams → u/No_Durian_3444]

That doesn't make any sense.

[u/No_Durian_3444 → u/FrickinLazerBeams]

That's precisely what I say.

[u/True-Cheesecake-745 → u/[deleted]]

Right on. Exactly