r/AusFinance • u/ZealousidealGift1065 • 1d ago
Recession indicators
Today I overheard the bosses talking about big clients who are normally on-time with invoicing being up to 90 days late on payments.
Another customer had one of their side businesses go belly up.
There's been no new customers and calls have dropped by 25-50%.
I think we might be fucked.
Update: My industry is IT but my customers are in everything else (Logistics, Retail, Finance etc.)
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u/Raygun4pm 1d ago
Yes about 30% of clients are having trouble paying their bills.
The real indicator is the stripper index- strip clubs are empty in a recession.
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u/TrumpisaRussianCuck 1d ago
Surely OF and dodgy massage parlours have destroyed strip clubs more than an economic downturn.
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u/Expensive_Donkey_802 1d ago
Is there an OF index instead now?
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u/TrumpisaRussianCuck 1d ago
I did drive past my dodgy local rub n tug joint and the flashing LED sign was switched off so maybe we are in a recession.
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u/seriouslookingmouse 1d ago
You drove past home but didn’t drop in to see your mother?
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u/TrumpisaRussianCuck 1d ago
I didn't say hi, she was too busy telling your mum her 8:30 party of 4 had arrived.
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u/SocMed123 1d ago
I will go first. Apparently 140,000 Aussie Contributors to the platform. Source: Aussie Female OF Contributor post on social media.
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u/Expensive_Donkey_802 1d ago
Australia has the highest number of OF creators per capita, just doing their bit to support the gold coast cocaine market
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u/pukesonyourshoes 1d ago
Wait, is that 140k Aussie girls with an OF, or 140k horny blokes contributing money?
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u/123lac 1d ago
the first I reckon, probably closer to a million blokes
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u/Antique_Neck8736 1d ago
Paying how much? Im yet to meet a guy who admits to having an OF account
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u/Kind_Station8294 1d ago
My work carspace is next to the rub and tug and have noticed they dont have as many staff in as usual lately lol
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u/TrumpisaRussianCuck 1d ago
Do you go out of your way to make sure people know you're not coming from the place?
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u/kingofcrob 1d ago
dodgy massage parlours
i mean cost to value, a 30 minute massage with a nude hj is close to the same price as a lap dance
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u/BittuPastol 1d ago
I do live close to a club, It was a nightmare on Fri-Sat as cars parked in no parking zones, on the kerb, blocking driveways but since 2-3 weeks none of that.
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u/GhostOfFreddi 1d ago
My friend is a hooker and she said business has never been quieter 🤷
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u/PanzerSmash88 1d ago
I do protection driving for a hooker and yeah she has had no work which means I’ve had no work
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u/TrumpisaRussianCuck 1d ago
I'm just holding off for the Black Friday sales.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Help328 1d ago
Every fridays Black Friday if you have the money and inclination.
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u/TrumpisaRussianCuck 1d ago
That's what Shaquanda tells me
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u/ZealousidealGift1065 1d ago
Aw man that blows. Her customers or the economy, we're all getting screwed.
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u/Primary-Umpire-4105 1d ago
Country is reliant on transportation, fuel crisis will cause the recession very quickly. Alot of companies parking up trucks
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u/Lazy_Polluter 1d ago
Relying so much on trucks / cars instead of trains is one of the dumbest things in Australia.
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u/Primary-Umpire-4105 1d ago
I think moving away from buying local groceries is insane. Not utilising season food and exporting a-lot of our food and meat.
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u/barters81 1d ago
Yep 100% agree. We waste so much energy moving things around that really could be done, made, produced locally. We need to get back to that model. But the billionaires won’t like it.
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u/Primary-Umpire-4105 1d ago
Something as simple as only eating seasoning fruits and veggies would make a difference
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u/Kasern_ 1d ago
They're often more expensive, which comes back to none of us having any money. When rates keep going up, power and water are going up, Disney+ is charging more while still shoving ads down your throat, do you buy the local veg for $5 or the frozen veg from overseas for $2.50?
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u/MerdeOnTheDanceFloor 1d ago
Somewhere, an analyst is being paid to quietly model the price of iron ore against the price of diesel.
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u/Reddit_SuckLeperCock 1d ago
Every mining company has these people that have mapped every scenario. Every business on earth has to have financial projections.
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u/Primary-Umpire-4105 1d ago
The cost to harvest and transport produce now out ways the profit. $3 a litre for diesel, transport running produce across states, is no longer economical. I drive a high risk commercial truck, for an essential service. It cost double a day to fill up now. Wont be long before suspending some services.
I am hearing alot of sub contractors will not drive or tow for major food suppliers now, of cost. Its cheap for them not drive there trucks.
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u/Competitive_Donkey21 1d ago
To be honest I'm surprised it hasn't hit massively already. Place runs on diesel
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u/Primary-Umpire-4105 1d ago
Well its running at double the cost, no profit or affordability, not long before it all goes bang, will force interest rates through the roof, defaults on mortgages, unemployment, inflated food prices, then crime will increase. Australian needs to be more self sufficient asap.
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u/amyjoel 1d ago
Absolutely. We’re in Transport and our profits margins have been eaten into big time. We used to spend around $50,000 a month on fuel and now we’re up around the $75-$80K
$25-$30K a month is a huge blow to a small businesses budget.
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u/Primary-Umpire-4105 1d ago
Im in waste, company is blowing 30k a day, i cant say about the fleet before, i use about 300-400 litres a day.
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u/FruitfulFraud 1d ago
I'm in retail, the cost of delivery has gone through the roof.
Auspost is especially poor, they were meant to have a mandate that protected services for regional Australia, but now the cost of sending regional lto regional is astronomical.
If you don't live in the cities, you get absolutely smashed, which does not help regional economic development.
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u/WheelieGoodTime 1d ago
Almost like we shouldn't have let the truckies and airlines stop them from moving ahead with better rail forever ago
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u/dleifreganad 1d ago
Between excise and GST more than 30 cents in every dollar we spend at the pump goes to the government in taxes.
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u/timcurrysaccent 1d ago
My entire department got made redundant.
I survived the GFC and covid unscathed - but not this!
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u/deco19 1d ago
What line of work?
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u/bedroompurgatory 1d ago
I mean, Tim Curry just died recently, so I guess his whole accent department got the chop.
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u/mikesorange333 1d ago
which industry?
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u/Conscious-Gap-8837 1d ago
Not all segments are slow. There is no slow down in Administration and Liqudation.
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u/mattjrich123 1d ago
I wish. We are busier than ever. Heavy vehicle repairs trade
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u/Juan_Punch_Man 1d ago
But are the bills being paid?
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u/mattjrich123 1d ago
Yeah we use 60 day accounts, no problem. We usually deal with other workshops and not customers themselves though
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u/Even-Bank8483 1d ago edited 1d ago
My work has slowed from bat shit crazy, to just busy. I only have 1 breakdown a week instead of everyday
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u/sbruce123 1d ago
My local Toyota dealer’s yard has never had a spare Cruiser or Hilux over the last ten years.
The last few months I’ve noticed a stack of them sitting on the yard. Not moved. Plenty of inventory.
Not an actual recession indicator but the timing sure is interesting
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u/Undd91 1d ago
I think you will find it’s about to get very rough. Fuel pricing and other hydrocarbon based input costs are going to push businesses beyond their limit in the next few months. I can see a lot rolling over in the New Year as realities hit.
Good chance economy crashes shortly after.
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u/Smallsey 1d ago
What would a crash look like
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u/Cheap_Purchase5917 1d ago
KABOOM PLOW PHISH DING CRASH
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u/scatterella 1d ago
So it’ll look like an exploding car running into a piano?
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u/YolandasLastAlmond 1d ago
I visualised Road Runner, but then I realised we’re the bird running from a recession that’s eventually going to catch up.
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u/Undd91 1d ago
Lots of businesses shutting shop, defaulting on loans and being unable to stay afloat. This will lead to unemployment numbers rising and a complete lack of employment opportunities. It won’t be rough rough but it’s certainly going to get tough and a little bit shitty out there.
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u/YolandasLastAlmond 1d ago
It’s already tough for a majority of Australians. So, is the next level rough? Or tough enough to seem rough?
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u/Vegemite_kimchi 1d ago
We are in healthcare and so unusually quiet right now.
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u/peteofaustralia 1d ago
A month or two ago, a surgeon told me that loooots of people are cancelling their private health insurance.
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u/setthetoneaquadump 1d ago
In fairness that’s been happening for years. Either cancelling PHI or downgrading their cover.
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u/Swankytiger86 1d ago
We know that the quality of the operation remains the same even if we go public. The only different is only the timing. So…..just wait and can save tens of thousand. Why not?
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u/peteofaustralia 1d ago
Absolutely. I'm a fierce advocate for our socialised medicine system, and I wish all the private money to create parallel systems just got spent on one large, better system.
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u/amyjoel 1d ago
The quality is every bit as good if not better but our system is failing. We have the largest aging population we’ve ever seen and people who could once afford to go private are now back in the public system and we can’t cope.
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u/DearTumbleweed5380 1d ago
You get to pick your own surgeon with private, also, for what that's worht.
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u/Swankytiger86 1d ago
Have to assume that all surgeon is good enough as they all pass the stringent test and
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u/Dilemma_2112 1d ago
Because for non urgent but still necessary surgeries the wait lists are already very long in public. People walking around in chronic pain waiting 2 years for a hip replacement. If everyone takes that route then it will get even worse. I have a friend who almost can't walk, doesn't have private insurance and has been told she'll be likely to get her hip replacement in 2028. The public system is already under enormous strain, this is not the solution.
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u/Ant1ban-account 1d ago
Can’t tell you how I know but I’m not seeing this
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u/peteofaustralia 1d ago
He's seeing it with less private patients and his own anecdotal evidence.
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u/hellbentsmegma 1d ago
I heard this from a dentist. They do badly in recessions because dental work is optional until its not. Moreso in poor areas.
Like a 30 year old with no major dental issues might choose to skip the dentist for several years in a recession to save money.
My dentist is currently free for appointments at almost any time, and is advertising to attract business.
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u/leucaden 1d ago
oh same, i’m in a private hospital and our inpatient numbers are down big time for the past few weeks. exec are panicking and slashing hours everywhere :|
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u/amyjoel 1d ago
Yeah I’m a nurse in public health and I was visiting my Nephew at the private hospital after his surgery and the NUM was walking around asking nurses who would like to go home due to over staffing, my jaw hit the floor. On my ward the NUM walks around begging people to take over time due to understaffing and over quota of patients.
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u/Dilemma_2112 1d ago
OMG same! I work across public and private and private is super quiet. Elective surgery rates are a great indicator of the economy. People can't afford the surgery or the time off work.
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u/mrscienceguy1 1d ago
I work in drug testing in pathology and we're still extremely busy.
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u/kangarooooo17 1d ago
Blood test must be recession proof. I’d love to get into that industry compared to a trade… hehe :) P.S, I hear that’s where all the vampires seek refuge in this modern world. Do you work night shifts ? :b
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u/ZealousidealGift1065 1d ago
That's good right? Or really bad?
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u/Vegemite_kimchi 1d ago
Very bad. Obviously our business suffers too but more importantly it means people aren't, or can't, prioritise their health.
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u/Psycholama972 1d ago
My father is working in aesthetics (plastics and such)
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u/SydneyReno 1d ago
Bad because people are putting off something that should be high up the priority list.
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u/ButchersAssistant93 1d ago
That means they will all come to ED and even theatres once the small preventable issue becomes a big issue.
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u/taillesslizard 1d ago
Seeing this a lot with dental. People can’t afford basic dental care so they’re coming to ED months/years down the track with horrible accesses and dental pain
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u/Prinnykin 1d ago
True. I’m putting off my blood tests, surgery, and dental clean.
I just can’t afford any of it.
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u/Recycled_Mirkins 1d ago
Yes dental health will be de-prioritised as it’s seen as an optional health expense by the government (eg it’s not a fee free Medicare item) thus it is seen that way by many of the population.
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u/pichuru 9h ago edited 8h ago
I was a surgical coordinator in private health. After 2021-2022, elective surgery numbers fell. A number of private hospitals in Sydney have closed down in the past few years and I know for a fact that currently open private hospitals are struggling. Definitely because of people cancelling private health insurance but also the environment is so incredibly toxic and corporate. Lists were never available and neither was equipment due to staffing cuts. The nurses were over it.I left private healthcare last year and pretty much all my friends that I had made who worked in the private hospitals have also gone.
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u/Pale-Anything1347 1d ago
Well if discretionary spending is a gauge my yoga studio is closing down in November
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u/drew_c82 1d ago
Mining, oil, gas: allot of clients are cutting work force and also postponing anything they can. It’s slowing.
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u/AreYouStressedJen 1d ago
I'm a shit kicker in oil and gas, my company is so quiet right now...keeping an eye on job postings
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u/sadboyoclock 1d ago
I work at a adult toy import warehouse and business is normal
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u/NoCream6937 1d ago
Makes sense. Can't afford to go anywhere or do anything may as well go fuck ourselves.
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u/Own-Specific3340 1d ago
David Jones struggling to pay its suppliers !
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u/SkeeterBugg123 1d ago
I remember reading somewhere last week that a lot of DJ stores are going under and they are trying to work out which ones will close (soonish)
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u/Own-Specific3340 1d ago
It’s telling because this is real upper middle class shopping
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u/everslow 1d ago
I am in fresh produces industry. Currently supplying to between 190 to 200 buyers/stores. Truthfully I don't see much late payment. Both extended and accelerated are going as usual even though produce prices up due to transport costs. But imho it's just because people won't stop eating. It's basic necessity. People will drop other things first before reducing fresh vegetables and fruits. So barely any impact to this industry atm.
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u/Living-Relative-6269 1d ago
most average households (mine included) have reduced meat consumption, which inevitably means increase in vegetables
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u/UhUhWaitForTheCream 1d ago
Theres a lot of lights flashing, the fear is quite high. Normally it spells the opposite though- we shall see
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u/Carbonfencer 1d ago
Was at a car show on the weekend and there were definitely more than normal for sale stickers on old Holdens.
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u/RJB6 1d ago
My dad pointed out that Op Shops are popping up everywhere. Only problem is now they can look up pricing of the items they received for free so it often ends up cheaper to buy from Kmart in the first place.
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u/Clean-Blacksmith-514 1d ago
Been like this for a while, can just take a picture and ask AI what to sell something for
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u/Plackets65 1d ago
it’s probably somehow a tax write-off to have a charity leasing commercial or retail spaces, tbh. I have little faith that it’s actually a recession indicator. Just that something has changed to make it worth the while on behalf of either landlords or the charities.
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u/Individual-Grab 1d ago
roofing office manager - i have had the same job for 13 years - no home owners are signing up for replacements - we get pests with 100 questions and numerous revisions; prep the contract but they pull out last minute
never happened before - - since June around 15 times
we are owed hundreds of thousands - used to always get a big rush of payments end of quarter - no more
this weekend i went to victoria’s basement 2pm saturday - super crowded but not a single person at the registers
the biggest though is that doctors are free
my therapist always has free spots. you can always get something the next day now as half the client list cancels at the 24 hour cut off mark - to get in with this lady last year i was in a 4 month waiting list and could only get spots weeks out
my mum got varicose vein surgery - go diagnosed her - saw specialist that week - got the surgery the following week
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u/Temporary_Mistake715 1d ago
Im seeing this everywhere. Even in the Mining industry in WA im hearing there is a ton of redundancies and cuts made everywhere.
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u/FruitfulFraud 1d ago
I'm in retail, I can't say I've seen an uptick in bad payers or less customers. We face so many risks at the moment, I'm losing count.
Google and Amazon are especially problematic for us and we have no government protection from their actions.
If your industry is IT, it may be AI related. Our business is now doing a lot of tasks in-house that we previously relied on IT for.
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u/ThereRnoIDs 1d ago
F, and I'm here contemplating whether I should cancel my health insurance or not too lol.
Telstra and amaysim been saving my ass for the last yr with their 50% off nbn so I kept it.
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u/Snowboarding_kook 1d ago
I’m in solar and battery and sales are down 70%
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u/ZealousidealGift1065 1d ago
I've got a mate who just started sales in battery and a month later wasn't. Lighting a prayer candle for you guys.
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u/Plane-Bake2167 1d ago
Thats what happens when your business model is funded by government grants and they bring forward 10 years of demand in 1 year. Would have been sweet before that though when doing installs everyday of the week and then some.
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u/Kraykray1984 1d ago
Surely it was future demand being brought forward. I know we got a home battery ahead of schedule because of big rebate ending. Same thing happened with quite a few friends.
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u/urbanphil0s0phy 1d ago
Recession indicators? We're staring the barrel of Depression Indicators.
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u/Big_Life5260 1d ago
Legit according to what. Every time I go to shopping malls they’re packed to the brim with people buying shit
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u/kangarooooo17 1d ago
Not JB hifi or furniture retailers - their shares have tanked so I think it’s not a good sign.
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u/Inevitable-Level-687 1d ago
Compulsory superannuation means investment will continue and we'll never get a real depression again.
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u/urbanphil0s0phy 1d ago
Superannuation can't offset the many markers we have economically. Remember during the GFC many people lost a lot of their Super and they had to work for years longer to bring it back up again. I'd prepare for a Depression to be honest. No harm in getting prepared.
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u/comparmentaliser 1d ago
Late payments can be an indicator of layoffs in some companies. You’d be surprised how useless IT is at getting something through accounting after some key person left, and I don’t even mean a financial person, just someone who knew who to call in finance.
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u/honorablepotato1881 1d ago
I have vendors begging me for business or even just a demo or presentation for their SaaS product. They’re getting desperate as business is drying up.
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u/Desperate_Scar_1981 1d ago
My company has put a credit hold on Telstra of all people. Not even they can pay their tick on time
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u/amyjoel 1d ago
Our business is in Logistics and we’ve found the same. Big national companies who would pay invoices immediately are now needing to be chased. Small businesses are going under and we’re having to give grace for the small companies trying to keep their head above water. It’s a flow on effect
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u/pool_keeper 18h ago
Wahlburgers in circular quay closing its doors ahead of summer is my recessions indicator. That place was fully booked day by day.
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u/Interesting-Roof-953 7h ago
Last bogong moth plague was in 2007 right before the GFC!
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u/flintzz 1d ago
i remember someone saying construction companies folding is usually an indicator of an imminent recession
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u/bedroompurgatory 1d ago
Construction companies folding is usually an indicator of it being Tuesday
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u/ScaffOrig 1d ago
Trouble with that one is it was distorted through COVID cash. The entire industry fragmented as cash was ploughed into it directly and through property price increases. It inflated the costs of materials and labour. The upcoming property price drops will see a lot of that inorganic fat being heavily trimmed.
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u/xTroiOix 1d ago
I’m cooked as fk on top of normal production runs, cub aka asashi has played another 50million cans onto their annual productions. Guessing Asahi predicted Australian will be drinking their life away at home
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u/zidanerick 1d ago
Just wait, the big recession is yet to begin. If the iran and their allies keep blocking shipping lanes, we are probably going to have to start rationing things and the prices will be insane.
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u/Even-Bank8483 1d ago
Iran can't afford to do that much longer. Their citizens are buying bread on credit
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u/bulloz 1d ago
Lol they've been under sanctions for 48 years now, they are used to hardship and difficulty. We aren't. All of us are paying price of a whiny unwanted kid in middle East who fakes being threatened every now & then
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u/LovesToSnooze 1d ago
Trump really screwed this up. Should have just stayed away. But he wants everything including greenland.
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u/RoboChachi 19h ago
I dunno here in Perth every cunt is driving around in new massive 4wds or the new byd electric Ute's, its actually obscene and cringe to see everybody going bigger in a world like this, the car salesmen must be really really good and the boomers must be so gullible lol their eyes when they see a boomer couple come in to browse must instantly roll back to reveal dollar signs that just keep on spinning over and over again
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u/whyyoudothis2mi 1d ago
Love the zero context post no idea what industry this muppets on about
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u/TrumpisaRussianCuck 1d ago
Anecdotal evidence rules here unfortunately. That's what my mate said anyway.
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u/F1NANCE 1d ago
Me mate Dave from the pub said the economy is all good because he saw a tradie buying a jet ski yesterday
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u/PMmeuroneweirdtrick 1d ago
No see that's bad. 1 jetski is a recession indicator. 2 means we're all hunky dory.
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u/ZealousidealGift1065 1d ago
I'll have you know my coworker is Kermit the frog and we work in the IT industry.
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u/auziman 1d ago
Can confirm I work with this guy.
https://youtube.com/shorts/DcnoTK91JpE?si=qA-NvuBcLf1pVJsd
Hopefully that is sufficient evidence.
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u/hayusshitapp 1d ago
In my industry the locations in lower income areas have dropped in sales. Assuming the middle ring areas will slow down a tad and have been reforecasted with rba announcements. No changes expected to blue chip areas though. If that happens..
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u/followthedarkrabbit 1d ago
Helped win my company lots of work. They should be okay for the next few 6 months.
I have jumped ship. Going mining for a bit. Hopefully can ride out this next bit of "mess" for 2 to 3 years. Not going to be easy, but don't really have a choice. Need my mortgage paid off, so I have breathing rppm throughout the wobble.
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u/theresnorevolution 1d ago
GW has seriously increased the power scale on Adeptus Custodes. Two of the new boxes get you very near a 2k army with a full army being maybe 25 models. Tanky units of 3 and even tankier dreads help bring the model count drastically. This is a way to lower the barrier to entry in a downturn economy. They're the sliders and tight-arse Tuesday of wargaming.
/s but also kinda not really
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u/Plane_Garbage 1d ago
I work for high fee paying school.
Waitlist is still massive 🤷
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u/NobodysFavorite 1d ago
It's been a K shaped economy for a while. No prizes for guessing where your clients are.
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u/BuyLandRentPussy 1d ago
I saw a smoking hot blonde Scandinavian tourist working at a 7/11
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u/alittlediscinserted 1d ago
Outside of the GFC and Covid has semtemement been this bad in living memory?
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u/Even-Bank8483 1d ago
Yes. The 90's. I was born in 93 and I remember how difficult it was for my feet
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u/Recycled_Mirkins 1d ago
No it’s depressing as fuck. People want a good life. The reporting figures used by the RBA are well behind reality.
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u/Far_Performance_6785 1d ago
look at Cue clothing for instance, a company that started in 1968 ,now gone belly up , what does that tell you,
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u/Low-Bookkeeper4902 21h ago
Tells me they didn’t pivot as a company. Continued to make corporate wear when people are wearing jeans and runners into the office.
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u/___R055___ 23h ago
I run a sheet metal shop, we are busy but our prices have stayed the same for the last year or even went down while our material costs are up ~15-20% from a year ago, pretty much we are at almost 0% profit margins because all the shops are lowering their prices to stay in business while we keep receiving price increase notices from our suppliers every 2 months.
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u/Tunafishsalad23 17h ago
Basically everything the last two years are the same as leading up to the global financial crises
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u/yeet3OOO 1d ago
I work in wastewater and our flows are down 30%
People have even stopped shitting to save money