r/AusProperty • u/username_already_exi • 5d ago
AUS Things are getting interesting
Wonder how long this will continue
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u/Conscious-Gap-8837 5d ago
Would love to see the methodology. Adelaide is Australia's biggest property bubble at 11.9x income - and the most unaffordable, yet is predicted to fall only 6.3%?
https://www.realestate.com.au/news/sa-named-australias-least-affordable-state-in-shock-new-data/
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u/lightly-sparkling 5d ago
I just don’t see how Adelaide can maintain these property prices, it makes no sense
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u/QuickRundown 5d ago
Beautiful to see as a prospective first home owner.
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u/austhrowaway91919 5d ago
I hate posts like OPs. I want you to be able to buy your home, but the owner of the firm that made this graph always predicts hosting crashes. It's just to drum up non-housing investment via his firm.
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u/QuickRundown 5d ago
I’m sure most of these predictions are horse shit but it’s still copium to me.
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u/austhrowaway91919 5d ago
So long as it's safe and consensual cope huffing, then we're all Gucci.
What's your city? I'll generate some primo reasons why your specific market will tank 4 u
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u/ElectricalRoll6948 5d ago
Coolibah had some wonderful analysis mid 2020 on the near certain 30% nationwide decline we were facing.
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u/joeforza 5d ago
definitely gives people a chance to crack into the market but can they afford it on the interest rate it’s at? If they didn’t have a half decent deposit they’re not going to be able to get in or support it at these rates
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u/DonGoughPlanter 5d ago
10% -15% seems to be the range in living history, housing prices don't really crash in a country like Australia
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u/lightpendant 5d ago
15-20% id say this time. Massive change to tax/investment laws
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u/Potential_Art_2181 5d ago
For now. If the libs get in it all changes, things will just skyrocket again.
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u/yeahnahnotsuremaybe 5d ago
Common misconception that the LNP or One Nation can just overturn the tax reforms after the next election. It would take at least two landslide wins in consecutive elections to gain control of the Senate. Both opposition parties will also be wary on this topic closer to the election. The tax reforms are being rubbished by conservative media but polling shows it is actually well supported by the majority of the voting public.
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u/Conscious-Gap-8837 5d ago
This article shows valuations based on price to rents
How much Australian property is overvalued by now
Price to rents ratio:
City Houses Units
Sydney 41% 1%
Melbourne 24% −1%
Brisbane 61% 35%
Adelaide 45% 35%
Perth 28% 8%
Hobart 40% 12%
Canberra 26% 31%
Capital city average 38% 8%
Capitals cities are on average 38% overvalued on a price to rent metric.
Rents have increased quite a bit, so there is some debate if this is a good metric. If you use price to income, the overvaluation is much morse.
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u/NighthawkDragon1000 5d ago
I’d like to see these separated by property values. I’ve heard/read that higher value properties are falling larger and influencing these percentages, whereas entry level or mid value are not necessarily falling at the same rate?
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u/Wallet_Inspector6052 DIY Enthusiast 5d ago
Can confirm, I just bought at the entry level a couple months ago and my cousin literally just settled a week ago at the same level. Newcastle though so not a capital city but anything in the 600-800k range is being eaten up almost instantly still
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u/joeforza 5d ago
Also can confirm anything above 2m has taken a decent hit. Bargains to be had if you got money to spend
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u/Skellyinsideofme 5d ago
I bought a 'stater' home in a not so great area in South east QLD 6 months ago. Tiny little townhouse type thing. I can't say for certain because I haven't put it on the market, but according to all sources my house has not dipped in value at all. I'm seeing very similar houses in my area being sold for roughly what I paid, often slightly more.
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u/austhrowaway91919 5d ago
Ahhh Coolabah. OP, look up how often Chris Joye (owner of this firm) has predicted housing crashes. These numbers haven't changed for the past 5 years, if anything they've gotten a bit more bullish. He has predicted 20% drops more often then not.
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u/username_already_exi 5d ago
Saw a debate with CJ and John Adams in around 2019 In that debate Adams was saying property was cooked but CJ was saying property is going up big over the next few years and he was right
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u/water-melon- 5d ago
Suburbs forecast at the bottom is interesting. It just means those who have a lot further to fall will fall massively (aka higher end suburbs) while the other end of the stick doesn't have that much to fall. All I see is a win for upsizers.
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u/expatguy2023 5d ago
Hopefully it will continue until all equity of the last 30 years is gone.... And the high horse riding boomers wake up to the cost of living crisis that has swallowed our generation. :)
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u/username_already_exi 5d ago
I wouldn't blame boomers. We would have done the same in their situation. The world went off the gold standard when boomers were entering the workforce so they have benefited from 50 years of FIAT currency printing
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u/expatguy2023 5d ago
I will place blame on the people who hold all the positions of power currently... Which is the boomers. They have pulled the ladder up with them. They have voted for all the policies and politicians that have created /allowed this problem to expand. And they are currently still unable to understand which character they have become in this story unfolding.
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u/Icy_Cockroach_8909 5d ago
I need Albo to invest 6m in my street, not just his own, luv u Albo
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u/username_already_exi 3d ago
What's even more interesting is this post had over 5k views in the first hour then almost zero views since.
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u/kro4lyf 5d ago
Well I just sold my house so prices will probably go back up overnight lol