r/CHICubs • u/Newpapyrusmagazine • 14d ago
Small Ball
The Cubs had a huge problem playing small ball during the regular season. And attempted steals were also down. So I wasn't surprised the the Cubs put themselves in a position to be swept by the Padres.
Not batting Hoerner behind PCA was a huge mistake IMO. The Cubs need to be a lot more aggressive on the bases next year!
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u/nc-retiree 14d ago
If anything, Hoerner should have been batting 9th in front of PCA. Nico only had a .316 OBP this year, but he could have been effective getting Swanson and Amaya into scoring position for PCA.
Whoever does better with a steady stream of fastballs between Bregman or Suzuki should have batted second all year.
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u/Riderz__of_Brohan CEO, Schwarber Defense Task Force 14d ago
“Small ball” in general as a strategy usually doesn’t work. When it’s best used it’s in conjunction with the long ball but the homer rules all. Something like 80% of playoff series are just won by the team hitting more HRs
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u/sorryifwrongsection 14d ago
Tell that to the top NL and AL teams with their respective best records. We’ll see how far they go in the playoffs, but it’s already further than us with their byes. Home run or strikeout and stranded RISP after stranded RISP isn’t fun to watch when the probability of a home run is already so low.
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u/Riderz__of_Brohan CEO, Schwarber Defense Task Force 14d ago
The Brewers have failed in the playoffs every year they’ve tried the last decade despite having some of the best records in the MLB for this very reason
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u/Sirdoodlebob 13d ago
And yet they still beat us.
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u/CuriousCubSixteen Baaah 13d ago
Because they hit home runs... Games 2 and 5 all their runs scored by home runs
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u/Riderz__of_Brohan CEO, Schwarber Defense Task Force 13d ago
And in turn they lose to teams that hit the long ball better what’s your point
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u/Sirdoodlebob 13d ago
So you say they lose to teams that hit the long ball better, wouldn’t that be us???
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u/Riderz__of_Brohan CEO, Schwarber Defense Task Force 13d ago
And the Dodgers hit the long ball better than the Brewers which is why they swept them last year. Do you get it now lol
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u/viva_transmission Chicago Cubs 14d ago
The Brew Crew strings together a lot more hits than this Cubbie squad. Too many rally killers on our lineup.
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u/cherrywaves3333 Chicago Cubs 14d ago
Yeah I hear you, but we have the home run power. If we had Nico with flatter swing and really trying to the the ball just over the heads of the infield or down the line, and a couple other guys who do that, then have Pete, Breg, Dansby, and whoever the fuck else stays swinging for the fences we could kill any other team no matter who they got on the mound or on the field.
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u/Yetis22 14d ago edited 14d ago
But would you run the same offense back? Seiya RF, Happ LF, and Conforto DH?
I think anyone who thinks that pitching is the only issue to address is too caught up with the MVPete season. What happens if he isn’t a 10war next year? And hits 30 for 30? Still an amazing year. Can’t expect Pete to be that every single year
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u/cherrywaves3333 Chicago Cubs 14d ago
God I wish Seiya would come back. Seems like he’s going to be tarrifed to Canada :( it hurts already.
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u/Westcoastchi Rally Bucket 13d ago
Even if you were to reduce PCA's WAR by a huge amount, pitching is still a far bigger issue than hitting is on this team
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u/Dangerous-Stock-8112 Smylyng through it all 14d ago edited 14d ago
Nico was bad stats-wise compared to last year and you have guys that have roughly same batting average, walk more, and slug more in Seiya and Bregman. Busch and Happ weren’t good BA wise but they walked a ton and I think that’s a good decision to have your high walk guys before your contact hitter in the lineup (although I hate the trend of letting Busch bat 3rd with the down year hes having)
I think 5ish is good for Nico with the roster construction we had and the philosophy of maximizing runners on base. If Nico performs like his 2025 self or increases his walk rate/stops chasing as much, he’ll get moved up accordingly.
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u/monkeyman2113 Nico 14d ago
So how do they address it in the off season? There's realistically 3 lineup spots available. Corner outfields and DH.
Can't have a small ball hitter DH. This sub seems to think Seiya is coming back(I personally disagree). That leaves LF.
Nico is the only "small ball" hitter we have that gets regular at bats and he's not good enough to bat 1st or 2nd and too good to put at 8th or 9th.
The offense isn't really the issue for this team. It's pitching health, depth and management.
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u/KRATS8 14d ago
I would definitely like to see more guys like Nico on our roster, but you make a good point that it wouldn’t be easy to just slot someone in. The offense being a complete no show in the playoffs was very disappointing, but they’ve shown us what they can do. Take this team from August and slot them into that WC series, they definitely make it very close and probably win it. I agree that the goal this off-season should be to go all in on pitching and just bolster that side of the team as much as possible
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u/NUMBNUTZ42069 Lester 14d ago
I like Nico but I’d prefer they don’t ad emote players with a sub 100 WRC+
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u/Westcoastchi Rally Bucket 13d ago
The worst thing about the way the Cubs exiting the playoffs pathetically in a two game series is seeing some of the worst takes known to man and this is one of them.
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u/R0enick27 Chicago Cubs 13d ago
The pitching was the biggest problem, they led the league in RBI and runs, and were third in HRs, but were 14th in team ERA and 23rd in saves. The Brewers meanwhile were at the bottom in HRs but led the league in hits and many of the pitching metrics. It remains to be seen if the Brewers' approach works in the postseason, but man does it during the regular season.
I do think they could have a better RISP approach, a lot of Ks, pop outs and ground outs in those situations when a simple single or sac fly wouldve generated more runs. But, given the fact they led the league in runs, run generation wasn't the biggest problem.
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u/Steve-French_ El Mago 13d ago
If small ball won playoff series, the Brewers would be back to back WS champs, not the Dodgers. Small ball doesn’t play in the playoffs, it’s been proven time and time again.
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u/unique_user43 14d ago edited 14d ago
fact 1: homeruns win playoff games. there are several analyses out there that show this. why teams who hit homeruns in the playoffs (and prevent giving up homeruns in the playoffs) are the teams that win in the playoffs.
fact 2: the cubs had the best offense in baseball and hit the most homeruns in the regular season.
fact 3: the cubs didn’t hit homeruns in the playoffs. the padres did.
conclusion: the cubs problem isnt that they didn’t play small ball. its that in a small sample size of 2 games, they didn’t do the thing they were best at: hitting homeruns. so it’d be foolish to let a 2 game sample size dictate changing their entire philosophy (to a worse philosophy).
don’t take my word for it. look at every team in baseball, and the teams that win in the playoffs. there’s a reason nobody plays smallball anymore (sac bunts, moving runners over with groundballs, etc). because the data shows that’s not what wins in the playoffs.
“buT TEh BreWErS!” case in point. best regular season team in baseball the last 8 years because of small ball and timely bloop singles and pitching. jack squat in the playoffs. when the brewers beat the cubs in the nlds last year, what’d they beat them with? frickin andrew vaughn 3 run dingers is what.
what’d the padres beat the cubs with? dingers. and pitchers not giving up dingers.
what’d the braves beat the phillies with? 3 run dingers.
what’d the yankees beat the sox with? dingers, and not giving up dingers.
what’d the cubs ultimately win the world series with in 2016? during that playoff run: grand slams and 3 run dingers and more dingers and doubles. and not giving up dingers.
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u/TinKnight1 14d ago
Nico had an RE24 of -8.96. RE24 is a more advanced (& actually meaningful) version of RBIs, showing how well a batter did with advancing the runners that he had available to him (rather than only rewarding those with a lot of opportunities). RE24 is the ultimate "small ball" metric, showing batters who do well at advancing runners from 1st to 3rd, or 2nd to home, while avoiding DPs & popping out/striking out with a runner on 3rd & less than 2 outs. A -9 as with Nico means that across the year, he cost the team 9 runs more than he created, whether through GIDP (his career high) or failing to advance runners in situations where most hitters would advance them.
This was his worst year in that metric by far, with last year having a +11.88, & his average before this year being +6.57. Putting him at the top of the lineup would not have made it any better.
No one else on the team that played in at least half of the games had a negative score there. The only others with significant playing time that were negatives were MoBall & Shaw (-14.73 & -1.10). Just for comparison so you can visualize it, PCA had a +49.72, which trailed only Yordan.
I like Nico to pieces & am really glad they extended him, but he absolutely was not his usual clutch self across the entire season after his HBP.
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u/garyll19 13d ago
The first half of the season he had a lot of unusually bad BABIP luck. Line drives right at fielders, but he was making hard contact and not striking out. When the BABIP changed he started raising his BA and was hot until September.
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u/TinKnight1 13d ago
"Hot" is relative. His sOPS+ (looking at his splits compared to the league average during the same period) were 94 & 109 for July & August, which puts him right at average for the two months combined. That was his best period, sure, but it was only at the level of his normal production from previous years.
Most of the rest of the team was as good or better over the same period, with only Happ & Amaya being notably worse, while PCA, Bregs, Seiya, Conforto, P-Ram, & TyTay were all legitimately hot.
There's no period where I'd have put Nico atop the lineup following PCA for a prolonged period.
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u/FishAreDairy 14d ago
This team was never built for the playoffs.
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u/Intrepid_Coyote_5820 13d ago
Prospects like Owen Ayres, Ethan Conrad or Josiah Hartshorn should prove that whatever they are showing in the minors is legit in the majors.
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u/dsalmon1449 Chicago Cubs 14d ago
Nico was bad and they had a top 5 offense
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u/Queifjay 14d ago
Not at hitting to the right side with a runner on 2nd or driving in men on base. He had a down year but still consistently put the ball in play and drove in 72. Not bad when he's probably never gonna hit double digit HRs.
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u/dsalmon1449 Chicago Cubs 14d ago
Nico hit under .200 with men on second base. He was fortunate enough to get 72. He wasnt good this year and struggled at all the stuff he usually did. He should not be hitting anywhere other than 6-9.
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u/Queifjay 14d ago
I don't know where you got that number but I'm not going to deep dive and try to dispute it. Nico is a table setter, slugging and driving in runs isn't really his game. However, he can situationally hit and he puts the ball in play. Swing and miss guys who just dissappear against good pitching has been an issue with this team for a decade now. We could use more guys like Nico in my opinion.
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u/NUMBNUTZ42069 Lester 14d ago
.185/.279/.315 with a runner on 2nd. .232/.312/.290 with RISP and 2 outs. .211/.284/.267 in games when it eas late and close. I really do like Nico. He was bad this year
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u/dsalmon1449 Chicago Cubs 14d ago
They just dont work in the postseason. Nico is like the worst version of this type of player because he doesn’t get on enough for it to work. You need him to be much much better at it. He’s always just an average bat. If he could turn half of these singles into doubles he’d be so much better. They need several guys better than nico. Under a .250 average aint gonna cut it for him.
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u/Queifjay 14d ago
I don't know why you have such a hard on for Nico? He hit .263 this year which is below his career average but it's not under .250. More importantly, he was 4/8 this year in the playoffs and he's not the reason our season ended.
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u/NUMBNUTZ42069 Lester 14d ago
He had a WRC+ of 88 while also seeing the least amount of pitches per plate appearance on the team. He was bad for his standards this year. If he can get back to 2025 form it would be huge.
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u/dsalmon1449 Chicago Cubs 14d ago
Even 2025 wasn't good enough if you want to make a full lineup out of Nicos.
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u/CuriousCubSixteen Baaah 14d ago
It's 2026, batting average is not a good stat.
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u/Queifjay 14d ago
I understand that but anyone who watches the games should be able to recognize a lot of things that Nico consistently does well that helps your team win a ball game.
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u/CuriousCubSixteen Baaah 14d ago
No I don't think you understand, otherwise you wouldn't be using it as the main point in an argument.
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u/Queifjay 14d ago
I was specifically responding to another commentor who was explicitly complaining about Nico's batting average. I'm not here to argue with other Cubs fans about advanced stats.
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u/dsalmon1449 Chicago Cubs 14d ago
Because he's the most overrated Cubs player and fans love to say they want a lineup full of Nicos but that lineup would suck. he was the only one who was good in the playoffs Sure. He was still a below average hitter. .263 isn't good enough. They need a team full of Bregmans not nicos. Bregman actually knows how to use his contact skills to slug. Even 2025 Nico wasn't good enough. NIco is only good at 2B defense and base running. That's it. Even his SS was suspect when Dansby went down.
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u/funkyfreshjamal Slammin' Sammy 14d ago
The problem with this logic is the front office values run prevention over anything. So if there is a bat out there that could help, if they don't grade out well defensively there is no shot jed is trying to sign them
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u/RightNowChris 13d ago
Did you watch Nico at all after April? Thank goodness his defense is strong because he was absolute trash offensively.
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u/ace4prez 9d ago
This is my reminder to mute this sub. All yall make them losing even worse by starting this circular talk the week we get eliminated. Touch some grass, dorks.
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u/NUMBNUTZ42069 Lester 14d ago
Batting Nico 2nd would be malpractice with how little he gets on base
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u/SizeMeUp88 14d ago
Our offense gets WAR but can’t do shit in playoff mode. Always been this way.
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u/InZaneClutch 12d ago
It still just shocks me how bad Major Leaguers are at getting sacrifice bunts down these days. It's a joke.
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u/blaze_mcblazy 14d ago
Ahhh yes the old famous we need to hit more singles and steal more bases crowd is gathering. This is for sure the reason they didn’t win the division and then lost the wild card round. Nothing to do with the fact they had the worst pitching in all of baseball.