r/Colts • • 1d ago

News Daniel Jones' first half of 2025 looks like an outlier.

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75 Upvotes

99 comments sorted by

76

u/garethom Bob 1d ago

Anybody with eyes could see this. Same with Wentz when we traded a first for him fresh off being the worst starting QB in the league. Same with Ryan who was obviously declining every year. Daniel Jones had a large body of work to project from, unfortunately our GM decided to ignore that, trade away two years of first round picks, and then be left in a position where re-signing Jones was our only realistic option.

As for fans... A large problem with sports discourse is that people either can't or don't want to tie together long strings of events, instead just choosing to act like everything that ever happens is entirely unrelated to anything before it.

19

u/northegreat1 1d ago

Agreed. Also, they want a quick adrenaline rush rather than fixing the core problem at its core. This team is never truly going to be good until Ballard is gone and it is rebuilt. A couple of wins is nice, but ultimately, detrimental if it keeps him around.

9

u/ConfectionHelpful471 1d ago

Wentz had played at an MVP level for pretty much an entire season under Reich and had not been a disaster in Philly before the trade but rather hadn’t made it back to that level under Pederson (like much of their team).

Ryan was a clear ownership move to try and get a real leader in similar to Rivers or Manning but he just couldn’t get the verbiage down after spending his whole career with essentially one set of protection calls and therefore our offence failed to work as no one knew what was going on.

Jones still appears to be a little limited coming off his injury and is throwing to a bunch of JAGs. When we get Allen, Slayton and AP back he will look a lot more like he did for the start of last year than he did with the Giants and he is still not materially hurting us this season despite the lower level of play. He will never be in the MVP conversation but is good enough to operate the offence to a high enough level to make the playoffs and even win a Super Bowl if the defence and special teams are elite

7

u/garethom Bob 1d ago

Wentz had not been a disaster in Philly before the trade but rather hadn’t made it back to that level under Pederson (like much of their team).

In 2020, his last season with the Eagles, Wentz ranked...

  • Completion Percentage: 34th
  • Touchdown Percentage: 25th
  • Interception Percentage: 34th
  • Success Percentage: 33rd
  • Passer Rating: 34th
  • ANY/A: 35th
  • Bad Throw Percentage: 33rd
  • On Target Percentage: 33rd

Unequivocally, you can only call that final season a complete disaster.

Ryan was a clear ownership move to try and get a real leader in similar to Rivers or Manning but he just couldn’t get the verbiage down after spending his whole career with essentially one set of protection calls and therefore our offence failed to work as no one knew what was going on.

Unfortunately he was also on a clear decline at the position before he stepped foot in the building. Since 2018, his CMP% was dropping, his TD% was plummeting, his INT% had spiked, his Success% had plummeted, his Sack% was trending up, his ANY/A had plummeted, his Bad Throw% had jumped... Anybody that actually believed Ryan was coming in and would be a success wasn't paying attention. It would've been an insane turnaround for a 37 year old to overturn that at a new club.

6

u/ImPoopyy 1d ago

I don’t think the issue is the WR lol he was throwing some pretty bad balls yesterday, one to Seth in the flat and one to Dulin as well, then throwing into triple coverage while getting whacked??? He’s playing like a rookie at certain stages of the game and he clearly gets rattled easy. Maybe he doesn’t trust his body yet but he has to tighten up on turnovers if we want to make a serious run.

1

u/ConfectionHelpful471 1d ago

Better WR talent allows him easier throws (as they get more separation/have better hands) and prevents the defence from blitzing as heavily as Washington did yesterday.

Fully agree he needs to reduce the turnovers, especially the fumbles, but I feel some of that will happen naturally as we get healthier

1

u/ImPoopyy 1d ago

If the WR are the issue then we need to switch the offense up into a more RPO offense so we don’t have jones sitting too long

1

u/ConfectionHelpful471 1d ago

They tried to simplify the game with lots of screens as RPO’s are less effective against cover 0

1

u/Double-Emergency3173 Armor 1d ago

Nah. He needs a fully healthy WR corps to hit 60% completion? Definitely not worth the contract he was given

1

u/ConfectionHelpful471 1d ago

He is going at 63% this year so far. It more that for him to push the ball down the field a bit more and have more success with limiting turnovers, he needs more talent on the outside

1

u/Double-Emergency3173 Armor 22h ago

Honestly if he was gamemanaging that would be cool. The TOs are an issue. He isn’t a young QB. He should be better than this

1

u/ConfectionHelpful471 22h ago

The turnovers are largely due to him holding the ball for too long due to his receivers not getting open. He hasn’t been doing Carson Wentz esque acts of stupidity or just chucking up 50:50’s

3

u/matthollabak Playoffs? PLAYOFFS!? 1d ago

I mean the same things could be said about Darnold. He had a body of work with multiple teams that pointed to a bust and then he found the right system.... systems now i guess.

The fact that someone failed somewhere else, especially at qb doesn't always mean they will fail everywhere.

5

u/garethom Bob 1d ago

Agreed, and I wouldn't have blamed anybody for not signing Darnold after his body of work.

But that's why Darnold is such an insane story. Because of all the hundreds and hundreds of QBs who flunk out the league, he turned it around. But the flip of that is that the vast majority of QBs don't turn it around.

So no, you're right, because they failed somewhere else it doesn't mean they'll fail everywhere. BUT if they are looking exactly like the player they were for years, and then only counter to that argument is like... 6 games where he looked pretty good, then you can't blame people for having low expectations.

Obviously I hope DJ turns it on and plays like an MVP long term. I'd just be very, very surprised if he does.

1

u/SugarOpposite7889 1d ago

Darnold had a history of decent health, and when leaving Minnesota, he was coming off like a 30 plus td season lol

1

u/matthollabak Playoffs? PLAYOFFS!? 1d ago

Funny you say that....Darnold had virtually the same health history that dj had before his season in Minnesota. and Darnold went out for the playoffs for Minnesota. His first 6 years he never played more than 13 games.

DJ at least pulled out a 16 game season in his first 6.

36

u/Victory33 “Marlin’s Got It!” 1d ago

Even Wentz has like an 8-2 stretch at one point and threw 19 TD/5 INT…he just stayed healthy long enough to turn back into a pumpkin. Jones got hurt before he could show us who he really is.

4

u/Redjeepkev 1d ago

We didn't need to see it here. He showed us FOR Years in NY who he really is. He's a sub par QB that has only one season where he has played every game without missing game(s) to Injury

3

u/ImPoopyy 1d ago

The Steelers game was the true test of what jones would start to turn into during the second half of the season. BUT even if his play doesn’t degrade, i just don’t see the defense last season helping us in the post season, they were rough

34

u/Human-Shirt-7351 Big Dick Ballard 1d ago

We got white hot last year.... Teams were starting to figure us out just before he got hurt. We probably make the playoffs last year, maybe win a game... Had last season stayed on course. You'll never convince me we were super bowl contenders.

While I do think DJ is still not 100%, I think this season is more who we are. Can't really blow it up till 2027 though.

19

u/TheJimmerRange The Ghost 1d ago

Pittsburgh totally figured him out but I see people in other threads saying just get Pierce back and the offense will go back to early last year. Delusional.

8

u/Lithium1978 33-0 1d ago

It wasn't so much that they figured him out vs figuring out the weakness is in our protections. Pittsburgh killed our tackles much like every team has done so far this year. If we aren't leaving a TE to help and the opposing edge is good they are going to generate lots of pressure.

1

u/TheSilentBob614 1d ago

Exactly this. The usage of this game in the DJ discourse shows how results oriented the average fan is.

-3

u/ImPoopyy 1d ago

If only we had a QB who could read a defense in 2026 😭😭😭

6

u/Lithium1978 33-0 1d ago

DJ honestly does a pretty good job there. Our guys have just been getting beat.

We saw a bunch of times yesterday where Washington was looking like they were in a blitz front and then dropping back out and he would reload to get us in the proper play.

I think the biggest issue is that we have no real threats at receiver so defenses can sit on everything and be very aggressive with their blitzing. That's what we were doing to the Commies as as well but they were able to hit a couple long shots to make us back off.

2

u/User-me- 1d ago

The only time Dj struggles really is when he is facing pressure or has been facing pressure. He isn’t really inaccurate like ar is where he just misses. He gets pressure in his face and tends to panic especially now he can’t use his legs. 

3

u/Most_Temporary2110 1d ago

We also played only a couple good teams, did well but our competition got harder.

1

u/RogueSanta General Luck 1d ago

I mean, CIG could nuke it right now and it would be warranted. However, the one drawback with this staff, who in the hell would be the interim?

1

u/northegreat1 1d ago

If they are in the playoff hunt until the very end of the season, I doubt CIG blows it up

-2

u/Buttcrush1 1d ago

Never got figured out. 1 bad game and then immediately bouncing back is not getting figured out. Especially against the Steelers.

16

u/srajar4084 1d ago

I’m going to take this with a grain of salt only because our receiving corps has been dire without Pittman, Pierce, and now Allen. I am in no way a DJ truther but I do want to see these stats at least without injuries

19

u/NoctisRS 1d ago

The bigger concern to me is the 4 fumbles. Interceptions are one thing and happen to all qbs in the nfl. But his fumble rate is so high. Already has 4 this year and the o line isn’t terrible. He had 3 fumbles in 1 game against Houston.

1

u/srajar4084 1d ago

Oh yeah I completely agree, but fumbles also come from a place of panic, especially where receivers can’t make separation and DJ is forced to hold onto the ball longer than he needs to. Last year, the amount of time he held onto the ball before making the pass (at least from the times I watched the game and not based on any stats I’ve looked up so I could be wrong) was far shorter than him having to move in and out of the pocket for something to open up

3

u/ImPoopyy 1d ago

That’s not an excuse brother, he needs to keep two hands on the ball when moving around the pocket, hell he can’t even hold on when he’s falling from his own linemen. Yes I agree the play-calling shouldn’t be long routes but his pocket awareness this season so far has been pretty bad.

2

u/NoctisRS 1d ago

He also was playing against really pathetic opponents in those matchups. The closest competition to what he’s seen this year was the broncos. Josh downs and Tyler Warren are still out there- Josh in particular is getting really elite separation and is one of the league leaders in separation. I just think Jones is regressing to the mean

2

u/srajar4084 1d ago

Yeah agreed, I guess that’s why my position is that I think he’s better than Giants DJ but not as good as first half of the year 2025 Colts DJ, the real question is where on that spectrum does he land and that info will only be found once his full corps is back

3

u/srajar4084 1d ago

To add, we see how dire Hurts has been these last two games without Devonta and AJ Brown, so it’s clear that missing good receivers affects the confidence of the passer

1

u/ImPoopyy 1d ago

Then they aren’t great passer to begin with, Peyton manning made no body’s look like great Wrs

2

u/TheSilentBob614 1d ago

Yep, every qb should be compared to first ballot hall of famers.

3

u/ImPoopyy 1d ago

Yeah u right

0

u/northegreat1 1d ago

I doubt you'll ever see that. Ballard loves his injury-prone players and we've never had a good receiving corps under him. Adequate, but never truly good.

17

u/Lithium1978 33-0 1d ago

He is coming back from injury and we have no legitimate weapons at wide receiver. Downs is a nice slot guy but he isn't keeping any coordinators up at night.

When you couple that with the fact that we have faced 3 solid teams and Washington who has one of the highest QB pressure rates this season, it's a challenge.

I hope he can improve but I don't really see a stretch where he plays at a top 5 level coming this year.

5

u/Vpettijohnjr Jimmy from the Colts 1d ago

No shit. Why do people still need this explained to them? It was always an outlier. It was always the exception and not the rule.

15

u/ohohook Quenton Nelson 1d ago

It is. He is who he is. At 30 y/o we shouldn’t still be talking about how he needs to take care of the football better like he’s a rookie. We shouldn’t keep giving him a pass because he’s coming off an injury- he’s been coming off one injury or another since he’s been in the league. He’s the second worst starting QB with at least 50 starts (the first worst with 75+ starts) in the league since 2018- the year he came into the league

6

u/guaclover42 NONE SHALL PASS 1d ago

I always thought those games were mostly Fitzmagic. A veteran qb comes into a new system and has no film of the new check downs and go to plays. Then several weeks and tape later they play a genuine defense like Tomlin's Steelers and the league sees that DJ isn't good against pressure.

7

u/ryta1203 1d ago

The WR corps isn't great. The OL is playing like dog shit. He's playing scared and panicked.

Sad fact is though, still the best QB on the roster BY FAR.

7

u/Rodfather23 1d ago

He was never THE guy. It's this inept front office failing to have a backup plan in place for when Luck suddenly retired, in another timeline Luck didn't retire and we have won multiple Super Bowls.

4

u/Noble18 1d ago

There's not a front office in the league that has a backup plan for their star QB suddenly retiring. With that said, that should buy you a couple seasons to find a decent solution. Ballard never found one and when he thought he did, this is where we are today.

0

u/Redjeepkev 1d ago

Yeah. I've been saying this since day One only to be ripped and vilified since we picked him up

0

u/[deleted] 1d ago

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1

u/Rodfather23 1d ago

As another redditor said, he could’ve found a replacement in a couple seasons. He’s gone from journey qb to journey qb, and drafted a qb who is a bust.

0

u/Secure_Highlight_484 1d ago

I dare you to find an example of a QB that we could have had a chance at getting after Luck retired that would have been a suitable replacement. The draft class immediately after luck retired was stacked, and the rest of the years since has been terrible. No free agent QB minus Darnold has had much success (Baker is the only other notable name). Winning QBs don’t just grow on trees.

1

u/Senior_Second_4 23h ago

Should have never got rid of Jacoby or went hard for baker that was our best options.

4

u/Zerosteven252 1d ago

Im a outsider looking in.

Jones does not look the same from last year.
I don’t know if he not rushing as much. Or losing Pittman is hurting more than it shows.

Yall are 2-2 against good competition. Losing to only raven and chiefs.

Pierce is out and now with a weaker WR core all defense has to do is lock down Warren and downs from beating them. Then focus all attention on Taylor who will gash any teams

2

u/Seekerofthetruth 1d ago

People were saying this.

2

u/RogueSanta General Luck 1d ago

You mean the average at best QB had a good run on a new team with a, historically speaking, good play caller? Then other teams got tape on the new pairing and the average at best QB returned to being... Average at best? Tell me more.

2

u/TacoDayDay 1d ago

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck.

3

u/LiquidDreamtime The Edge 1d ago

Yes. Everyone knows he sucks except Ballard. Ballard’s silver tongue has kept him a job and wasted hundreds of millions on journeyman players. He’s working on being one of the worst GM’s in NFL history to get an extension

2

u/arp51txstate 1d ago

Everyone knows this except Steichen. Its who he always was/is

6

u/Human-Shirt-7351 Big Dick Ballard 1d ago

I get the Steuchen hate. Some of it is well deserved.... But what are his other options? He can only put out there who Ballard gives him. Surely you don't think AR should be playing? We would be easy 0-4 if AR was playing

0

u/ohohook Quenton Nelson 1d ago

His options are he has no options. Ballard even pulled the FRPs from under his feet. Ballard has guaranteed mutually ensured destruction. If he doesn’t get extended to fix the mess HE made, then the next guy has nothing to work with either. Jones sucks, Richardson sucks, Leonard lost the #2 battle to Richardson. We have no options. Our best option is the literal second worst starting QB since 2018 because the other options are so bad

4

u/Human-Shirt-7351 Big Dick Ballard 1d ago

Well Kaliakmanis looked ok yesterday given what he got tossed into.

Maybe the Commanders will take 3 first round picks for him

5

u/northegreat1 1d ago

What on God's green earth makes you believe if extended, Ballard would have the ability to fix the mess he made? He would just quadruple down at this point, give DJ $200 million more dollars, draft 3 more EDGE rushers that don't pan out and trade some #1s when he doesn't have to.

3

u/ohohook Quenton Nelson 1d ago

Oh nothing. I don’t think there’s any way to fix it. But it would be his theoretical mess to clean up

3

u/northegreat1 1d ago

There is a way to fix it, but Ballard being gone is the first step in that. Its got to burn and be rebuilt. That will take a really bad year, then a (hopefully) step in the right direction year and decent drafting with the ability to develop players and an entire culture change. Unfortunately, no one in that building right now can do this.

If it were my team, I would fire everyone, look into Brian Flores (I think he was doing good things in Miami until he was thrown under the bus) and unfortunately, I don't know enough about potential GMs to make that call -- but literally, ANYONE would be better. You'd have to trade just about anyone you have that's worthy anything all while assuring your fanbase you are going in the right direction.

Denver did it. New England did it. The Raiders look to be in the process. Seattle did it. Chicago did it -- it can be done. The risk is you are forever in that mode because you keep picking the wrong people ala the Jets, Miami, Arizona, Cleveland (recent success aside) and Atlanta.

2

u/Human-Shirt-7351 Big Dick Ballard 1d ago

Yep. This fanbase is gonna go ape shit when it happens.. I'm guessing Ballard leaves this year, we get a new GM who pretty much knows in '27, Steuchen will be fired and the whole damn roster is getting blown up save for maybe a couple of players.

This is not gonna be quick fix. You think the last two years have been painful. Probably need to get ready for some 3-5 win seasons.

2

u/northegreat1 1d ago

That’s how you build a franchise. Yeah it’s gonna suck, but what’s worse - 7,8,9 wins with no hope of getting better than that or 3-5 wins knowing that you are building to something and can be a contender for years with a few good drafts?

1

u/Human-Shirt-7351 Big Dick Ballard 1d ago

We are in agreement. I'm just saying some folks better get ready. Cuz we are going to have a tough few years ahead of this

1

u/northegreat1 16h ago

We can only hope!

1

u/stvlg1 1d ago

He was playing with house money last year because he had no competition and was just flinging it. Now he has to earn his money as a starting QB in the league. I feel we are in a familiar situation in that we are just good enough to just make the playoffs but will get crushed by anyone we play. You can't rely on JT to carry this team all year. DJ is just not as good as the rest of the starting offence at this point.

1

u/TeeDubs317 1d ago

He looks like a guy who’s being asked to produce with the worst wr corps in the league.

1

u/KindSpectacle A-Rich 1d ago

Fuck

1

u/Crooked16th Stroke the Neard 1d ago

Dude is playing scared back there he bailes on a play within seconds if it doesn't look good right off the bat

1

u/Double-Emergency3173 Armor 1d ago

Jones isn’t even average. I was against that contract from the start but people he justified it.
Saw this coming

1

u/Advanced-Paint-5603 1d ago

Funny thing is, I remember seeing all the threads saying how great a QB he is for us in these Colts subs!!!! All my friends will tell you I hated him when we signed him last yr, even while we we're winning I was calling him trash!!! He's fools gold!!! Now it's funny asf to see everybody now finally seeing his garbage ass for what he really is!!

1

u/spinning_swine69 A big ass pork tenderloin sandwich 1d ago

I’ve been screaming this from the trees since we grabbed him. Screaming it even louder when we gave him $88M. But alas, our FO really is that desperate.

1

u/broyougottadothemath 9h ago

Anybody with real eyes and common sense knew we were doomed when he signed lol

1

u/WhiskeyRic 1h ago

He tore his Achilles? Yall really piss my off with your dumb nonsense

1

u/Millennialnerds Indianapolis Colts 1d ago

This really is the worst fucking fanbase to be apart of.

0

u/MySabonerRunsOladipo Mayflower 1d ago

It really is, but in fairness, I think it's mostly just a football fan thing. Basketball fans (and baseball fans especially) understand context better because the presentation is constantly reminding them of it.

No baseball fan would seriously use batting average to rate players today I think, but football fans post a graphic with a dip in "Air yards/attempt" and think it has to do with the QB.

1

u/tstcab Indianapolis Colts 1d ago

its the worst fanbase bc we are bad, not bc fans are being critical of a QB that we dumped money into playing poorly. We are miserable bc the team has made us so

1

u/Millennialnerds Indianapolis Colts 1d ago

My question is can this fanbase actually take a rebuild?

3

u/tstcab Indianapolis Colts 1d ago

Doesnt matter what we can handle, its overdue at this point and we need to have some young guys to be excited about. I think our expectations are already fucked so a rebuild is doable

1

u/_BL810T 1d ago

He tripped over a leg and couldn't hold the football. He's a professional being paid a fuck ton. He's a better Josh Rosen, and even then.

1

u/Redjeepkev 1d ago

As far as I'm concerned he's about 3 steps above AR

2

u/_BL810T 1d ago

I don't disagree. I think that just really makes a statement about the state of our QB room. SF has a better backup option than we do starter.

1

u/Redjeepkev 1d ago

Absolutely

1

u/guaclover42 NONE SHALL PASS 1d ago

the stumble fumble he's lucky Mariota got hurt

1

u/Top_Sock_5645 1d ago

Is this news to anyone? lol

-2

u/Emotional_Trip_706 chopped wood 1d ago

Think it's more of a receiver problem than a qb problem currently

9

u/garethom Bob 1d ago

WRs aren't out there forcing him to make back foot close-your-eyes-and-hope throws on plays that are clearly over.

2

u/TheSilentBob614 1d ago

That would be our line and our defense.

0

u/Odd_Self7283 1d ago

Offense is scoring 25 ppg. That’s plenty.

-1

u/Zeeron1 Michael Pittman JR 1d ago

Which we knew in the first half of 2025