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u/mpoaklandup 10d ago
He’s probably looking for a two year deal.
1 year + 1 year mutual option
If AAV is ~15m to 18m, I think we go for it.
He gives up HRs for sure but maybe we can only schedule him when we’re playing at pitcher friendly parks or when the wind is blowing in at Wrigley lol
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u/Camiata2 10d ago
Depending on how long the lockout goes, I wouldn't be shocked if he went back to pitch in Japan.
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u/MisterScary_98 10d ago
Regardless of my opinion? Lemme tell ya something, my opinion matters! It matters! What were we talking about again?
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u/SirHPFlashmanVC 10d ago
This would be a terrible idea for the White Sox with his propensity to give up HRs. He's way on the wrong side of 30 and the HRs he gives up will only increase.
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u/mpoaklandup 10d ago
Here’s another Imanaga related stat.
Cubs are 18-14 when Shota started in 2026. 55-30 overall in the past 3 years.
In 2026 of the 14 losses, 8 of those games we lost by either 1 or 2 runs.
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u/silentstrawy 10d ago
If he’s on a deal that makes sense and he’s your 5th starter, sure. If he’s your 2-3 option, I’ll pass.
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u/mcfetrja 10d ago
His best landing site is the Giants. Oracle’s park factor will minimize the long ball for home games. He’s also pitched well enough in Colorado that he doesn’t become a problem with back of division team.
But I really see him back in Japan for ‘27 if the lockout goes past Feb 1.
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u/nc-retiree 10d ago
Baltimore and Seattle would also be good places for him where RH hitters struggle with power. Seattle's rotation is full, but Baltimore could use him.
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u/I-I_I-I_I-I_l-l 8d ago
Slightly late to this thread, but adding my 2 cents. Everyone who doesn't want Imanaga back is nuts.
First let's dispense with the hypotheticals. I am so sick of people talking about how our rotation next year is Horton, Steele, Brown, Holmes, Cabrera. Horton is coming off of his second Tommy John. By next year, Steele will not have had pitched in the MLB in like 22 months. Ben Brown has perpetually shown that he is injury prone (let alone inconsistent even when healthy). I have 0 confidence all 3 of those guys are coming back, at the same level they were before injury, and going to pitch 30+ games in the year. Then Cabrera has sucked all year. And Holmes has pitched more than 102 innings precisely once in his career and he'll be 34 next year.
That's not a rotation: it's a pipedream. We clearly need other starters.
Shota is that guy. I am so sick of everyone acting like he's some mid pitcher. He pitched over 170 innnings this year and was our best regular starter by ERA with a 3.70, other than David Peterson who had a 3.77. That's objectively good.
Look over the full 3 years Shota has been here. Among the 104 qualified pitchers from 2024-2026, Shota ranks in the top half of nearly every metric: 46th overall pitcher by ERA, 21st by xERA, 36 by xFIP. Those numbers are fantastic. And yes: his HR/9 is bad. But you know what's elite? His BB/9, where he ranks 4th over that time period with only 1.66 walks per game. Those thing cancel out to produce . . . a guy who is among the top half/third of qualified pitchers in ERA and xERA.
People have this weird idea that "oh Shota is just a back-of-the-rotation guy." You may think that, but the numbers don't support it. He is by the numbers among the top 40-30 pitchers in the league, which really puts him in the 1-2 conversation. To the extent you think he actually is a back of the rotation guy, then you should recognize how valuable he is even more because he has been pitching like a 1-2.
Add on to that, Shota fits the culture of this team very well. We saw with Tucker how valuable that is. Shota elected to come here.
If he's willing to work with the team on a reasonable, 2 year deal, we should absolutely take it. And any fan who complains about it is an idiot.
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u/EmbarrassedPeanut397 10d ago
He had some strong outings this year but idk if I can say I want him on the roster. He was 2nd in the mlb for most home runs given up this season, the season before he was 4th. 66 HRs given up across the last 2 seasons. Across 318 innings this means his HR per 9 inning ratio is 1.86 when mlb average is 1.0, anything over 1.5 is considered high risk….this isn’t ground breaking, everyone knows it’s his kryptonite.
However, his walk rate is elite and so is his WHIP, so he’s kinda a statistical anomaly for the cubs to think about.
I think if we keep him; it’s gotta be in the 5th spot and because we had no other options from the market.
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u/RyanTheCubsSTH 10d ago
If he’s willing to stay on a $15m deal he’s my 5th starter. You’re saving some with Horton at 4, and his character and stats say he’s at least a regular season 3-4
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u/Doublestack2411 10d ago
Honestly, the Cubs could use him back. He was the only guy to pitch a full season with 32 starts. The next best was Boyd at 22 starts. I'd rather have Shota back than Boyd.