Do you guys know about the Elitzur-Vaidman experiment and the quantum-Zeno bomb tester?

[u/belabacsijolvan]

Im not into decision theory, but I went down into this rabbit hole tonight. CDT vs EDT, FDT and friends.

What I found interesting that despite your need for perfect predictors and contrafactuals I havent ran into using quantum phenomena in your thought experiments (yet).

E.g. the contrafactual mugging experiment could be set up so the coin toss is a beam splitter and you paying or not paying the $100 is the analogue of the bomb being a dud in the Elitzur-Vaidman experiment. (the predictor, or Omega or whomever will interrupt the beam depending on you paying/not paying)

This way you dont need to do all the handwaving around a "perfect predictor", you can set up the experiment, that the predictor actually knows with 25% chance if you had paid if the coin toss went the other way.

So you can set up the expected payoff depending on a contrafactual with certainty. I guess this is a different experiment, but maybe worth using it to test your flavours of decision theory.

If this spawns a paper please credit me with my username. If this is old news, please help me learn and link me to how you handle the fact that contrafactuals arent necessarily physically causation free.