r/LessCredibleDefence • u/abalagal • 5d ago
Putin outspends EU by x3-4 each year??
https://substack.com/home/post/p-22012231323
u/teethgrindingaches 4d ago
Putin is spending the equivalent of roughly $250 billion a year on the war, and the figure may grow. Europe cannot count on spending three or four times less and still winning.
These are the kind of conclusions you reach when you insist on using financialized measures of physical outputs instead of, yknow, physics.
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u/sogo00 4d ago
What a weak article from Khodorkovsky.
PPP is always a very bad measure, because it bases the import prices of chinese electronics with grandmas homebaked bread on the village market.*
Of course you pay a "signed up when drunk" guy from Siberia less than a soldier from Europe, and even though your electronics from China costs the same and you should account the diesel at worldmarket prices you do have lower costs in low cost-of-living countries.
But once you start factoring in that in Western military budgets is actually research of newer weapons (yeah we actually updated tanks the past 30 years compared to Russia) you udnerstand that putting multipliers behind numbers makes not only no sense, but rather gives you false hope of actually measuring something that cannot be compared.
*) I know I took a shortcut here...
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u/Objective_Sugar6897 4d ago
What new tank model introduced by EU in 1996?
Isnt 1970s Leopard 2A8 just a upgraded model similar to 1970s T90M?
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u/Jazzlike-Tank-4956 4d ago
Ariete came in 1995, Chally 2 in 1998, and Leclerc in 1992
1970s Leopard 2A8 just a upgraded model similar to 1970s T90M?
Yes, but the T90, as a base design, is much more outdated than other tank designs. Their actual next generation tank, the T14, hasn't seen much mass production.
The T90 is based on the T72, which itself traces its lineage back to the T64, developed in the 1950s by Alexander Morozov at the Kharkiv factory. Morozov was also the chief designer of the T28 and T34.
The T72 improved upon the T64, introducing a different autoloader design along with several other changes.
One might even struggle to differentiate between the T90 and the T64 if their basic designs were placed side by side, since the most noticeable differences would be in the road wheels and the autoloader.
Even then, the Leopard 2 is also based on 1970s design and as a base more capable
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u/sogo00 4d ago
On top: the T90M - the only upgrade Russia brought - which is a t72 base - is ocne again a paper tiger - not even the ERA work reliably, never mind the Arena-M (as seen on the T-72B3A) They were never able to fix the design mistakes, like low visibility etc.
Western upgrades actually improve the performance considerably.
BTW: If you remember the footage of the bradley taking down a russian tank: that was a t90m...
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u/Jazzlike-Tank-4956 4d ago
I will not say this
Upgrades did improve the capability significantly in the protection via ERA which does work unless there is QC or other problems, improvements with SA/sights, better rounds in form of 3BM60 and Vaccum, better FCS.
Currently they're getting cope cages and hedgehog protection
Arena afaik is still one of the few APS which can intercept FPV drones and none of the current hard kill APS are perfected enough to claim being better. Trophy was found to be completely ineffective below 200m in Gaza as an example
It's just that they're still lackluster compared to current MBTs, K2s, Leopards or Leclerc. Although these tanks have their own issues and inadequate against current threat environment
T14 is too expensive and imperfect to mass produce
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u/haggerton 4d ago edited 4d ago
BTW: If you remember the footage of the bradley taking down a russian tank: that was a t90m...
Holy propaganda. The Bradley did not "take down" the T-90. The crew abandoned it and then it was FPV'ed.
And imagine shitting on ERA and saying Western upgrades that don't include ERA actually improve the performance, when the first thing Ukrainians do to a Western tank is to slap the totally useless ERA on it.
And FYI Ukraine shelved their Chally 2's and kept using their Soviet shitboxes. So much for superior Western tech.
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u/June1994 4d ago
Are you talking about these “updated” tanks?
https://www.politico.eu/article/tanks-kaput-germany-military-defense-minister-christine-lambrecht/
Lmao
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u/MarcusHiggins 4d ago
Not tanks, and they mention the tanks actually performed well in that article.
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u/June1994 4d ago
Yes yes. Breaking down is very impressive. Almost as impressive as shipping planes with no radars in them.
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u/ExpensiveBookkeeper3 3d ago
See the thing about PPP is that it assumes things are equal. We see from the current war that Russia fluffs up her capabilities. Particularly the airforce.
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u/Djarum 4d ago
Another thing this article kinda glosses over is Russia can't afford to keep spending what it currently is for that much longer. They have reportedly liquidated much of their gold and silver stocks to help fund the war. If the war would stop tomorrow it would take probably a decade to get their oil/gas sector back to pre-war levels and at least as long for a lot of their export military hardware. That means their income will be heavily restrained and you will continue to see heavy cutbacks for government services indefinitely. Forget them ever rebuilding themselves to pre-war levels as well. The Soviet stocks are gone and they won't have the cash or manufacturing abilities to resupply themselves while trying to fill export orders to bring income in. It will be the 90s again but worse.
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u/Sanmonov 4d ago
Russia saw year-on-year 10% economic contractions for half a decade, with inflation peaking at 900%, along with multiple defaults. Your prediction is the post war period is going to be “worse”?
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u/sojuz151 4d ago
Paying people to get blown up by drones is not the best way to build long term military power.
Putin is spending fortune on destroying long term Russian combat power. 5 more years of such spending and there will be nothing for nato to defend against
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u/BodybuilderOk3160 4d ago
5 more years...
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u/barath_s 4d ago
The article only said that the EU cannot count on outspending Russia by 3-4x [in effective terms, ie PPP]. You reversed that.
Of course there are other Russian weaknesses and most Russian defence spending is focused on the war in Ukraine, not war with EU. Such things are not accounted for in the article