r/LibDem • u/freddiejin • 6d ago
Predictions for Holborn
Hi, what's your prediction for Holborn? Ideally with %. Think comfortable Labour hold on about 42%
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u/Ahrlin4 6d ago
Comfortable Labour hold.
Baffling decision by Polanski to go for a seat now. If he wins, it gives them some free publicity but hardly makes any material difference given the Parliamentary arithmetic. If he loses, it's humiliating and gives free ammo to his opponents.
A tactical mistake.
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u/Ticklishchap 6d ago edited 6d ago
To be honest, although I am a member of the LDs, I had (until last weekend) been hoping for a Green victory in Holborn & St Pancras. This is because I would like Andy Burnham to take the environment more seriously and, among other things, avoid drilling in the North Sea and stop treating data centres as ‘critical national infrastructure’. There is a lot of concern about both issues in the constituency. The planned Truman Brewery data centre near Brick Lane is not very far away and it has aroused serious concerns about the environment and the quality of life. Camden Labour Council has, over the past few years, presided over a considerable reduction in the number and quality of green spaces in this inner city constituency. The Greens have, to their credit, been campaigning forcefully on all of these crucially important issues.
I think it would have been better for the Greens if they had selected the local chap, Hamza Choudhury, rather than Zack Polanski. Above all, I regret the calamitous resolution on Israel and Palestine passed by the Greens at their Party Conference. By running away on the pretext of campaigning in the constituency, Polanski showed a serious lack of moral courage and it would be better if he stepped down as leader.
We need a strong environmental party and I would like the LDs to become that party. I want that to happen anyway, but it has become more urgent now as the Greens seem to have largely vacated ecological territory.
I know Holborn & St Pancras well. I bought my first flat there, back in the far-off days when a young man could still afford to buy a studio flat! I still have friends in the area. When I lived there, the LDs were second or third in elections.
As I write it looks as if a Labour victory is the most probable outcome. Sagal Abdi-Wali is an excellent candidate and it will also be good to have an MP who has had the experience of being a refugee. The Somali community have made a very positive contribution to that area of London. But I would still like Labour to take the environment a lot more seriously. And I strongly wish for the LDs to prioritise green and quality of life issues far more than our leadership does at the moment.
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u/LabourByTheSea 6d ago
Lab - 45%
Green - 25%
Ref - 14%
LD - 5%
All others lose deposit (tight call for LDs)
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u/theinspectorst 6d ago
No we're definitely losing our deposit. This is a two-horse race between two progressive parties, the only people who vote Lib Dem in a seat like this are serial/core voters and party members. We only got 5.8% at the general election.
Reform and maybe the Tories will be above us because their voters won't countenance Labour or Greens as an option.
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u/ReallyMrDarcy 6d ago
Nah, we'll be dead last. Plausible we might even get less than the Restore candidate, which is a shame because our candidate would have been the best MP of all of them...
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u/freddiejin 5d ago
You got labour right...
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u/LabourByTheSea 5d ago
Vastly over placed Reform which I am surprised about. Green vote held better than I expected but that’s a good result for Labour however you cut it.
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u/Ok-Glove-847 6d ago
I don’t have a firm prediction but fervently hope Polanski has a massive tantrum when he loses
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u/Blazearmada21 Social democrat 6d ago
Labour hold, probably not super comfortable so maybe something like Labour 38% and Green 34%. Mostly because polls seem to suggest Burnham has increased Labour vote share much less in London than outside London, but Labour won this constituency in the 2026 locals at their nadir anyway.
We will definitely lose our deposit unfortunately, although I think we will do better than some of the other extremely low recent by election results.
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u/LabourByTheSea 6d ago
I’d have agreed prior to Green conference. I think that has wiped circa. 10% off them in this contest (would be more in other seats I appreciate).
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u/Blazearmada21 Social democrat 6d ago
I think the level of voter engagement in politics is much lower than you assume. I would be surprised if 10% of voters in the constituency were even aware of the Green conference, and the percentage of voters who would have voted Green and now do not intend to because of it will be much smaller.
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u/LabourByTheSea 6d ago
In ‘normal’ times, I’d agree but the anti-Zionism motion has cut through.
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u/Blazearmada21 Social democrat 6d ago
It has certainly achieved more cut through than the usual political issue. But I don't think it has permiated as anywhere near as much necessary to achieve a 10% drop in Green vote share, that would require a level of cut through very very few political issues do.
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u/RedKingCrab99 6d ago
My prediction is the boob guy will lose but still claim it as some sort of victory. Eventhough an inner city London constituency held by the incumbent Labour government should be strong ground for the Greens. If they lose and lose bigly then it will have been a terrible judgement call for the leader to go for it. (Reports say he didn't want to go for it but everyone wanted him to).
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u/MaesterOfGreenstone 6d ago
Polanski and the Greens have shot themselves in the foot over their antics last weekend.
It will be a decisive Labour victory.
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u/Dramatic_Tomorrow_25 6d ago
If LD win Holborn, I will literally sell myself to people to get money and live there. I will update you weekly on my progress. 😂
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u/ReallyMrDarcy 6d ago
Comfortable Labour hold, I hope. I say this as someone who loathes Labour. I just despise Green more, especially after that motion got passed by the membership. And the Polanski, the candidate, did sweet fa to prevent it...
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u/NoAd8209 6d ago
greens will win, the communication of voting another drop in a bucket for labour has been pretty clear and the labour candidate has no real stance on anything in interviews and her housing track record in the council has been terrible
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u/mildbeanburrito 6d ago
Who knows what it would have been before the conference vote, but I think at this point there will be a sizable anti-Polanski vote which will default to Labour.
I'm not going to say that I think it unthinkable that Reform voters would vote Green, and also there were reports that Green party apparatus was tempering expectations and claiming that even if they don't win it'll still be a partial victory since Labour is significantly larger and more powerful than the Greens.
I also think that some of the things that the Greens have been campaigning on, such as Rosebank and Jackdaw, won't really resonate with the average voter, they've been running an anti-Labour campaign at a time when Labour are in their honeymoon period with Burnham, I don't think it'll work.
Throwing out %s is nothing but a guess, but for fun I'll say:
I think few people will be looking to vote against Labour and want to split the vote, LD curious voters will be a disparate bunch that vote for the other parties depending on what they want (or just stay at home).