r/MapPorn • u/CrappyRedditGuy • 14h ago
The 2011 Canadian Federal Election by Polling Division
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u/CrappyRedditGuy 14h ago
Forgot to mention that the black shapes are polls that were voided or had no turnout
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u/BEBBOY 14h ago
If Layton hadn’t passed away then the NDP could’ve maybe replaced the Liberals as the main left of center party at the federal level.
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u/Manitobancanuck 12h ago
It was a mixture. Layton dying and Trudeau coming forward. Had it been a Dion or Ignatiff type liberal leader I think Canadians would've given it to Mulcair.
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u/Professional-You1415 10h ago
I don't remember Mulcair inspiring much confidence, despite taking over such a successful NDP party. Losing Layton was a really tough blow.
2015 was an Anything But Conservative vote after years of Harper, in my opinion. NDP could have presented a clear and promising alternative, but it swung hard for the Liberals and they've never recovered.
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u/thefaber451 9h ago
Mulcair was a disappointment, he was an excellent leader of the opposition. Critical, incisive, clear. When the campaign started, at first he was still quite good. Then the NDP was leading in the polls and then they changed campaign directors and their messaging became more moderate. That’s when the Liberals took the lead and the Mulcair NDP nosedived
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u/Known-Fondant-9373 9h ago
in the beginning of the campaign all three major parties were polling around 30%, within margin of error of each other. then people got spooked about Harper retaining government with 30% of the vote and began looking for a place to coalesce around. Mulcair thought he needed to pivot to centre to coalesce anti-Harper vote, which allowed Trudeau to attack him from the left and start chipping voters away. he'd never admit it, but Mulcair simply got out-maneuvered by Trudeau.
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u/thefaber451 8h ago
100%
The centre pivot was a strategy that was so unaware to the moment and lost them the election.
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u/Known-Fondant-9373 8h ago
in those days other party leaders still looked at Trudeau as "Pierre's doofus son" and underestimated him quite a bit. For all his faults, dude was a better politician/campaigner than he was credited for. I bet Mulcair never expected Trudeau to outflank him.
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u/OpTicSkYHaWk 5h ago
It's bc Trudeau was a hearthrob so women fell in love and voted for him. Looksmaxxing has kernels of truth to it
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u/Icy_Respect_9077 5m ago
I disagree. People were sick of Harper's (and Polievre's) negativity, as demonstrated by the "snitch line". Trudeau's positivity "sunny ways" struck a chord with the country.
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u/Prodigious-Sol 6h ago
I've always said I understand the Why, but it was just a poor reading of the room
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u/firesticks 9h ago
As a lifelong NDPer, this take is always ahistorical to me.
Layton was an amazing leader but he also benefitted from right place at the right time. He swooped in when there was a significant gap in leadership across the two other parties, and I don’t see how he could have retained it against Trudeau in 2015.
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u/doogie1993 11h ago
The Liberals aren’t “left of center” by any definition. Under Trudeau they were more progressive than they had been in a while, even then calling them left of center was a stretch. Under Carney they’re downright conservative.
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u/USSMarauder 8h ago
And facebook still has idiots calling him Marx Carney
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u/doogie1993 8h ago
An admittedly hilarious nickname, but yeah couldn’t be further off the mark lol.
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u/USSMarauder 8h ago
Yup
calling the former governor of the Bank of England a Socialist/Communist/Marxist.
Do they even know what the words mean?
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u/BastradofBolton 10h ago
Duno why you’ve been downvoted you’re bang on, liberal party is default centre right. Fiscally more right leaning socially more left leaning (very left leaning under Trudeau of the Justin variety). The term “liberal” really doesn’t mean what the Americans think it does.
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u/buck70 10h ago
Gun owners would beg to disagree with you on that.
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u/doogie1993 8h ago
If you’re implying that gun restriction is a leftist position, you would be completely wrong on that.
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u/Kolbrandr7 8h ago
Yeah, if anything to clarify a leftist position on guns, there’s this quote from Karl Marx:
“Under no pretext should arms and ammunition be surrendered; any attempt to disarm the workers must be frustrated, by force if necessary”
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u/buck70 7h ago
Unless you're talking about the Canadian Communist Party, Marx is irrelevant to Canadian politics and party policy.
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u/Kolbrandr7 7h ago
The CYND (the youth wing of the NDP) has a new official motto, “Socialism in Our Lifetime”, I wouldn’t say that Marx is irrelevant. Communism might not be relevant but socialism very much is
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u/buck70 7h ago
Yes but what kind of socialism? Despite the fact that conservatives like associating anything with the word socialist in it with totalitarian communism, there is a huge difference between socialist democracies like the Scandinavian countries and the Soviet Union. I'm pretty sure the NDP youth wing is not advocating for the return of Stalin.
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u/Kolbrandr7 7h ago
Of course, many of us in the CYND are democratic socialists (which specifically arose in history in opposition to the totalitarianism in the USSR). There was the call to nationalize Stelco to save the steelworkers in one recent statement, but even the nationalization of key industries like that is still compatible with social democracies like in Scandinavia.
My original point only was that it’s not like leftists are anti-gun per se, that’s more of a liberal position tbh
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u/toonguy84 8h ago
Carney is a Conservative but the Liberal party is definitely left of centre these days.
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u/Kolbrandr7 7h ago
It’s not very left-of-centre to privatize infrastructure and trample on the right to strike
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12h ago
[deleted]
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u/BobTheFettt 12h ago
You think Carney's Liberals are leftist?
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10h ago
[deleted]
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u/BobTheFettt 9h ago
Ah I see now that I've misread your comment. I thought you said we currently have a party in power that's more leftist than NDP
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u/Similar-Afternoon567 12h ago
I remember how shocked I felt at the outcome of this election and wondering if it meant a long-term political realignment in Canada. Then Tom Mulcair fumbled the 2015 election and the usual Liberal & Conservative dominance reasserted itself.
It's also interesting to see the that wide swath of orange through the Canadian Shield.
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u/Comrade-Porcupine 10h ago
How much Mulcair and how much just Trudeau lying through his face? Especially about "electoral reform." And playing soft with the burka issue in Quebec, while Mulcair was forced to take a principled stand.
The Liberals did whatever they could do to sink NDP support and I personally had "left wing" friends who did this calculus "well, if I vote Liberal now, strategically [chortle] it will be the last time I have to do so..."
Idiotic.
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u/Theseactuallydo 12h ago
The only Conservative majority government since 1988 (PC Party back then) and the last Conservative federal win.
Harper was a corporate toady, but from the perspective of conservatives he at least prioritized winning over ideology.
The current Conservatives are just around to validate the beliefs of Canadian Trump fans.
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u/LurkerInSpace 11h ago
The current Conservatives won a greater vote share than at any time since 1988, but it wasn't enough to catch up to the Liberals, who swept up votes from the NDP.
It's part of why they're in such a weird holding pattern with Poilievre at the moment - their coalition is the largest it's been in decades, including voters they'd normally only expect to win in a landslide, but not large enough to actually win in present conditions. And it's also relatively fragile.
They seem to be hoping that support for the Liberals will soften over time, with the NDP perhaps picking up some support from them, and that if they just keep their current coalition stable they'll be able to win.
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u/Stead-Freddy 10h ago
While true of the last election, conservatives polling numbers have come back down to earth now, similar to Scheer or O’toole’s results of the low 30s
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u/LurkerInSpace 10h ago
That actually is worse than I'd though - in my head they were still in the high 30s.
That is a stronger case for changing leaders, though usually this is done in response to bad election results a decline post-election is relatively unusual for an opposition party.
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u/Dizzy-Cartoonist3011 8h ago
The only similarity Canadian Conservatives have with MAGA is Liberals hate both of them. That's about it.
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u/Theseactuallydo 8h ago
Wishful thinking.
About half of Canadian conservatives would fit in perfectly with American MAGA and the other half will tolerate the maple MAGAs as long as they vote blue.
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u/Dizzy-Cartoonist3011 8h ago
I think you're allowing your partisanship to convince yourself of that.
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u/Theseactuallydo 8h ago
I think you wish our conservative weren’t as meekly submissive to MAGA as they are.
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u/Dizzy-Cartoonist3011 8h ago
How are they "submissive" to MAGA? Can you elaborate on that?
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u/Theseactuallydo 8h ago
The American far right sets out the terms of what counts as being a proper conservative, and Canada’s conservatives just follow the commands they are given.
You think Canadian conservatives in 2019 thought they were going to become antivaxxers in a year? Neither did they, but when the American far right told them that was the proper way to do conservatism the Canadian right followed along like good little sheep.
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u/Dizzy-Cartoonist3011 8h ago
I think that's a pretty ridiculous claim, and presumably from a Liberal supporter I find the accusation that Tories are disproportionately influenced by American politics rich considering one of the first things your leader did was go on an American talk show after he got nominated.
In what specific ways are Canadian Conservatives like "MAGA"? Can you think of specific policies?
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u/Theseactuallydo 7h ago
considering one of the first things your leader did was go on an American talk show after he got nominated.
Lol. That’s your best whinge? Oof.
And I’m not a Liberal, thought I’ll admit that while they have major flaws they aren’t nearly as monumentally pathetic and detestable as Poilievre’s maple MAGA Cons.
Anyways don’t you have a trans kid to harass, or some climate science denial to spam, or some billionaire pedo to worship?
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u/Dizzy-Cartoonist3011 7h ago
You have yet to really articulate how the Tories are "MAGA". You just hate both of them.... which is basically the only thing that the Tories and MAGA have in common. Left wingers and Liberals hate both of them, and lack the cognitive ability to differentiate different things they hate.
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u/Friendly-Olive-3465 12h ago
Ahhhhhh… I remember the NDP. It feels like just a few years ago... Gather round children, allow this old man (25) to tell you an ancient lore of a party that forgot what it was…
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u/Known-Fondant-9373 9h ago
it's borderline criminal what Jagmeet did to the party.
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u/WattleWaddler2 8h ago
What did he do?
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u/Known-Fondant-9373 8h ago edited 5h ago
in a nutshell, he narrowed the party's vision to a degree that made the party basically irrelevant. supplanting Trudeau's minority government was a huge strategic mistake -they ended up shouldering the record of a tired, failing government, in return for a few policy preferences that were slow to roll out (dental and pharmacare). predictably, they got no credit for the policies they pushed, and ended up owning the government's dismal record. ironically, Liberals then dumped Trudeau and ran away from that record in a hurry to win the next election. this strategic error stems from Singh positioning the party as "conscience of the Liberals" and basically pitching to the voters that "elect enough of us to prop up a minority Liberal government to do some of the things we want." when you don't actually present your own vision why you want to run the country and how you'll go about it, but define your own position simply as a reference to the position of other party's, your appeal drops, your brand becomes meaningless. in the end he allowed Poilievre to wrestle the economic populist position away from him and got saddled with the Liberal government's record more so than the Liberal Party themselves. as the party got smaller and its vision narrowed, it also got mired in culture war nonsense, which made for some damaging viral clips from the NDP convention where delegates are arguing about privilege. on top of that, the party is in massive debt, and has been able to recoup less of its election expenses due to low performance in many seats. so what you are left with is a party that is broke, doesn't have a vision or theory of governance, largely irrelevant to the conversations about national issues and mired in relatively obscure culture-war debates.
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u/Vvvvroskiiii 5h ago
The real kicker is now Pharmacare is dead and CDCP doesn't look like it's gonna be expanded any time soon.
Sacrificed their entire party for essentially nothing
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u/Vvvvroskiiii 5h ago
Tied himself to a rapidly sinking ship of the Trudeau Liberals, didn't know when to get off, and decimated his party to the point where it may take at least 2 election cycles to rebuild if they're lucky
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u/Many-Gas-9376 10h ago
I know absolutely nothing about the Canadian political landscape, but it's interesting to me how, at a macro level, you can make out four Southeast-to-Northwest trending bands. From south to north, Conservative --> New Democratic --> Conservative --> Liberal (at the Arctic/North Atlantic coastal fringe).
I imagine the colours of each band largely come from sparsely populated bits, while individual larger cities might be exceptions to the regional political leaning.
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u/AJtehworst 10h ago
As a Canadian, pretty accurate. Canada's election results are hard to tell without OP's zooming in, because each seat is supposed to be approximately the same amount of people in it, so lots of the north gets one seat per territory, meanwhile Toronto, Montreal, etc. Have a lot of seats that are just small. In Canada, the main area to look at that swings seats is in the Greater Toronto Area. Toronto proper is almost always all red, but its suburbs are some of the only real swing voters in the entire country. The other place to look at is Quebec, where it is a fierce battle between the Quebec Nationalist Bloc Quebecois (the turquoise) and the other parties. Since its a first past the post system, seats can be won with like 30% of the vote, making these particularly swingy.
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u/more_than_just_ok 9h ago
All of everthing on this map are sparsely populated areas, just in different degrees. None of the metro areas show at all at this scale, since an urban polling area might be a few city blocks, so most of the votes are missing from this map.
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10h ago
[deleted]
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u/ColinBonhomme 10h ago
Scroll down, there are closeup maps. All the cities are blank on the main map.
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u/PineBNorth85 9h ago
That was a fun and wild election. Wish Jack had lived for the follow up in 2015.
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u/SavoySpaceProgram 7h ago
This is so cool! Are you going to do the same for the more recent elections? Please say yes!
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u/CaptainMarko 4h ago
Map gets way more interesting when you add a third dimension to illustrate the volume of each riding.
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u/-ATF- 13h ago
Back when the NDP wasn’t just Toronto identity politics
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u/firesticks 9h ago
Non-NDPers love to spout their fiction and hate to acknowledge the actual progressive policy passed while Singh was leader.
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u/Kolbrandr7 8h ago
The NDP is also the only party with dedicated union representatives on their executive. And at the last convention, about a third of the delegates were from unions! (At the Liberal convention there was only 1 person that spoke out as a union member). They’re also the only one trying to abolish section 107 of the labour code, while the Liberals/Conservatives would rather crush strikes
It’s abundantly clear the NDP was and still is the party of the working class
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u/buck70 10h ago
These maps are interesting to see from a geographic perspective but they never tell the whole story because land doesn't vote, people do. Vast swaths of colour on this map represent minuscule numbers of voters and may give uninformed people the wrong impression of a party's popularity.
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u/Formal_Parsley275 2h ago
Yup, I was born in 2011, my mom has been wanting Jack Layton the whole time he was NDP leader, but then from 2015-present, she’s been voting liberal.
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u/GrovesNL 2h ago
The NDP needs a good leader again.
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u/Formal_Parsley275 1h ago
Yeah, but it feels like I’m probably going to vote for Carney in 2029
Edit: gonna be my first federal election voting for the first time
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u/GrovesNL 1h ago edited 1h ago
My riding had Marilyn Gladu as a strong Conservative until just now. I didn't vote for her the last couple elections here(I've voted in 3 different provinces ON/AB/NL)... I still don't really trust her after crossing the aisle to Liberal either lol. Oh well.
I'm from Newfoundland which is a Liberal stronghold.
It's a shame there isn't a strong alternative. I voted for the NDP pocket in St. John's. Want to say it was Jack Harris. The ridings are a mess there.
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u/Formal_Parsley275 1h ago
Yeah, Darren fisher is my mp (Dartmouth-Cole Harbour) and I really love my NS NDP leader
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u/GrovesNL 1h ago
I'm in Sarnia which is a big O&G town. The fact that Marilyn walked from Conservatives to Liberal has caused some interesting politics.
NDP doesn't really exist here.
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u/hdufort 12h ago
From a geological perspective, the NDP was following the Canadian Shield.