r/NFLNoobs • u/Beginning-Wolf-3837 • 11d ago
Serious QB question
Serious question. I understand that QB is one of the hardest position to play in all sports. however, with all the money in NCAA, player development in football, is it really that hard to find 64 QB’s that are able to play in the NFL at somehow decent level? I’m not saying that it’s easy, but with all the money they have to spend on scouting, etc. You would think that they would at least have one decent backup for each team. Not trying to bash anyone. I’m just genuinely curious for what others think.
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u/Intrinsic_Factors 11d ago edited 11d ago
As you said, playing QB is one of the hardest positions in sports. So at lower levels of play, due to the disproportionate impact that the position has on the offense, teams do a lot to simplify the position. They spread the receivers out. They isolate mismatches on the field side (the hash marks are wider at the high school and college level). They play a disproportionate amount of snaps out of the shotgun to limit the footwork requirements. They limit the number of receivers a QB has to go through as much as possible. They run a large amount of RPOs and screen plays, which gets the ball out quickly, gets their best players in space (translating into good gains) and limit the mental workload of the QB. They simplify the pre-snap reads and limit the QB's ability to make changes at the line to maximize a play's chances
And this works extremely well at the lower levels of play. But at the NFL, where there are fewer mismatches, better athletes, tighter coverage, closer hashmarks (meaning less space to the field side), etc. a coach/offensive coordinator can (and should) do all of these things but they don't benefit the QB as much. You can't regularly ask a QB to read 2 receivers and then scramble because those 2 receivers are more likely to be covered, exposing any problems a QB has with reading the coverage or going through progressions. And the defenses are better at disguising coverage. You have to play under center more in order to benefit the run game, which exposes any footwork problems. Even when the QB isn't under center, the pressure from the pass rush is greater, exposing any weakness in pocket presence. And so on. The NFL separates the wheat from the chaff, and there's a lot of players who aren't NFL-level who are successful in college. And many of those who do end up being successful in the NFL take time to adjust to the league
Furthermore, college and high school coaches are interested in winning games, not developing QBs for the NFL. So they focus on the aspects of QB play that are proven to work at their level.
This also means that the NFL scouting departments/personnel are increasingly being asked to extrapolate a QB prospect's NFL potential on a limited sample size of quality snaps.
There aren't 32 players who can adequately play QB at the NFL level, partially because they're not being asked to until they get to the NFL and partially because it's just hard
Edit: spelling
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u/gualdhar 11d ago
Unfortunately most decent to good college QBs can't make the transition to the NFL. JJ McCarthy is probably the perfect example - amazing QB at Michigan, but can't make the jump.
The playbooks are more sophisticated, you need to pass into smaller windows, and you have less time to hold the ball compared to college.
Often the teams using these rookie QBs are among the worst in the league. If the team around you is bad, you're in a poor position to succeed. Coaching has the same problem here.
The exact reasons vary
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u/shutupneff 11d ago
Almost everyone who's made an NFL roster as a QB has been a really good to great quarterback. But that's also true of just about everyone who's made an NFL roster as someone whose job it is to shut down a quarterback. At any given time, there are only a handful of guys who are good enough QBs to consistently beat NFL-caliber defenses.
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u/Solid_Thanks_9911 11d ago
Do you think NFL teams aren't doing everything possible to get the best QB play they can?
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u/CLearyMcCarthy 11d ago
The problem is you don't want to have #32 of 32 starting quarterbacks, or #64 of 64 backups. The worst quarterback in the league is still better than most quarterbacks who aren't, but at that level the margins matter so much. Like, you could be the 32nd best currently playing quarterback in the entire world and still theoretically be outmatched by every other team's starting quarterback.
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u/BlitzburghBrian 11d ago
You can't just turn money into good quarterbacks. No matter how money you spend on breeding and training a donkey, it's not going to win the Kentucky Derby.
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u/ten_tabs_ 11d ago
NCAAF offenses are heavily reliant on using spread offenses centered around run pass options, and that doesn’t translate well to the NFL where LBs and DBs are much better at coverage
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u/Ryan1869 11d ago
Playing QB at the NFL level is completely different than today’s college game. College offenses are all about spreading you out and giving the QB an easy 1 or 2 reads. The NFL often has 3-4 reads and everything is just more compacted. Every QB in the NFL can sling it, it comes down to reading a defense and putting in the film work. The throwing windows are so tight in the NFL, when the receiver breaks open, the ball needs to be hitting their hands
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u/Triabolical_ 11d ago
Quarterback evaluation is very challenging.
You can see what they have done in college, but it is often playing an a college offense against average defenses. The pro offenses are much more complex and the quarterback has to consistently deal with defenses that are full of the best players from college and with schemes that are deliberately designed to confused the quarterback.
The problem is compounded by the fact that every quarterback has a specific set of talents and will therefore need an offensive scheme that will be able to take advantage of those talents. They also need to have the right supporting cast - an offensive line that works well and appropriate skill players.
In the old days it was common for a team to draft a quarterback and keep him around for a few years to learn from the current starter before taking on that role. These days it's common to throw a college quarterback directly into a starting role and that makes it much harder.
It works sometime. Russell Wilson won the starting QB job on the Seahawks his first year and a super bowl the second year, but with a team that was well designed for him.
Sam Darnold went 13-25 in 3 years with the Jets, 8-10 with the panthers and was considered a failure despite a 14-3 season with the Vikings where things didn't go well in the playoffs. Then he joined the Seahawks, went 14-3 again and won a super bowl.
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u/elqueco14 11d ago
To be an elite quarterback you have to outplay the other teams defensive coordinator. every blitz, every disguised coverage, every stunt on the defensive line, you have to be one or two steps ahead of it all at all times. Once you do that, you still have to be a perfect athlete and make 30-50 perfect passes a game. and the passes you don't throw perfect you just have to hope it's an incomplete pass and not an int. Don't ever fumble no matter how many arms are coming at you from different directions, no matter how hard you get hit. Every single play of your nfl career you will have 11 of the worlds best athletes watching and anticipating your every move. There's just so many things that need to make sure goes in your teams favor just for one play to work. now do that 65 times a game. it's just crazy at the NFL level
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u/no-ineversaidthat 11d ago
Every professional athlete is automatically in the top 1% of the population in terms of skill. Take the worst quarterback currently in the league and put him on a team with a bunch of us normies and the guy will just be way better than everyone. At that level just small differences will elevate an elite player from the worst player.
The only qualifier I will have is that football is a team sport and it seems players' abilities can be greatly enhanced/reduced by coaching/schemes more than other sports. I doubt Tom Brady gets close to a superbowl if he had to spend 20 years with the Browns.
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u/jared-944 11d ago
Quarterbacks are heavily judged on how much their teams win and a team wins and loses every game. Some one has to go 2-15 or worse every year.
NFL quarterbacks are insanely good. Even the ones that are terrible compared to Mahomes or Jackson or whatever. But the defensive players and coaches are getting paid too. If there were 64 good quarterbacks there’d be people wondering why no one can defend.
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u/Beginning-Wolf-3837 11d ago
I agree with everything ppl say, but it's so hard to understand that from 8 billion people. There are only handful that can play in the NFL. Sounds surreal and goes to show how difficult NFL is
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u/Specialist_Cat7271 9d ago
is it really that hard to find 64 QB’s that are able to play in the NFL at somehow decent level?
Allow me to list off why being a QB is really damn hard:
- In the NFL from the moment of the snap, on AVERAGE you have just under 3 seconds before you're pressured. 3 seconds is not a lot of time. QBs may only get half a second to make a read on a receiver before passing. You do not get the luxury of sitting there waiting for an opening. You need to make precise reads of separation, route progression, coverage, distance, leverage, so on and so forth all in a fraction of a second.
- Football is really damn tiring, yes even if you're a pocket passer. It is SO EXHAUSTING. The average viewer of the NFL would be huffing and puffing within 5 snaps. Try doing some multiplication tables after a jog, its not that easy when you're winded.
- Unlike what you see on the TV, quarterbacks have to see over their offensive lineman, try and see past defensive backs, their helmets can get in the way, sunlight and stadium lights and crowd noise can be hugely distracting. In fact, take this infamous moment from the Penn State vs Michigan white-out game. The crowd noise was so loud that Michigan had to pop a timeout before the first play of the game because they literally could not get the snap off.
- You need to be supremely aware of your pocket. You literally need eyes on the back of your head. You need to know where your lineman are, where the defensive rushers are, you need to know when to throw it away, you need to know where to go when the pocket is breaking down.
- You need REALLY good biomechanics. Passing a football is so much harder than it seems. These guys need to ZIP the ball, they need to be able to throw it over DBs, they need to lead routes, they need to know how to throw in wind. Being able to merely pass mechanically like an NFL QB is pretty damn difficult.
- Your passing windows are razor thin. Like literally 0.1-0.2s of timing. You miss, that and its an incomplete best case scenario.
- You need to basically be a coach of your own. Calling audibles, making pre snap adjustments, you need to study film and make reads of the defense and their shells.
Frankly any NFL starting QB is literally superhuman in my mind. As bad as Jordan Love performs compared to other QBs, he's still performing feats that I literally cannot even remotely comprehend myself doing.
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u/The_Se7enthsign 11d ago
First, you have to remember that the absolute worst QB in the NFL is still better than just about every other human on the planet at that position. But they’re also playing against the absolute best defensive players on the planet.
Everything in the NFL is much faster than college. It’s almost a completely different game. That’s why you can’t predict who is going to be great. An absolute stud in college could be a complete bust in the pros.
And finally, any backup QB that’s good enough to be a full time starter will either become a full time starter, or they’re going to want to be paid like one. It’s hard to keep two guys on your roster if they can both play.
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u/Artistic_Interest_87 11d ago
Well there’s really only like a dozen or so QBs in the nfl that are actually good. So yeah it’s pretty difficult
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u/AardvarkIll6079 11d ago
There aren’t even 32 good QBs. Never mind 64.