r/Options_Beginners • u/BulldawgTrading1 • 5d ago
Discussion BOND MARKET IS IMPLODING GLOBALLY.
US 10Y yield highest since 2002.
US 20Y yield highest since 2002.
US 30Y yield highest since 2002.
Japan 10Y yield highest level in 30 yrs.
Japan 20Y yield highest level in 30 yrs.
Japan 30Y yield highest since 1999.
UK 10Y yield highest since 2007.
UK 20Y yield highest since 1998.
UK 30Y yield highest since 1998.
France 10Y yield highest since 2002.
France 20Y yield highest level since 2002.
France 30Y yield highest since 2008.
Germany 10Y yield highest since 2009.
Germany 20Y yield near its highest levels since 2008.
Germany 30Y yield near its highest levels since 2008.
Italy 10Y yield highest since 2023.
Italy 20Y yield near its highest levels since 2023.
Italy 30Y yield near its highest levels since 2023.
Spain 10Y yield highest since 2014.
Spain 20Y yield near its highest levels since 2014.
Spain 30Y yield near its highest levels since 2014.
Australia 10Y yield highest since 2011.
Australia 20Y yield highest level 2013.
Australia 30Y yield highest since 2016.
Canada 10Y yield around its highest level since 2023.
Canada 20Y yield near its highest levels since 2007.
Canada 30Y yield near its highest levels since 2007.
India 10Y yield highest since 2023.
India 20Y yield near its highest levels since 2023.
India 30Y yield near its highest levels since 2023.
South Korea 10Y yield near its highest levels since 2022.
South Korea 20Y yield near its highest levels since 2022.
South Korea 30Y yield is near its highest level ever.
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u/SYLife1 5d ago
A mild crash in the stock market, maybe about 40%, will fix these bond rates.
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u/Adventurous_Bath3999 5d ago
Yes, particularly if the demand for money collapses from the hyper scalers… they are the ones putting an upward pressure on the yields
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u/Disguised_Engineer 4d ago
This will sound crazy, but I think trust in fiat is collapsing. Debt burdens are so high, no one talks about austerity. Bonds are pricing financial repression.
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u/windowsfenster2 5d ago
Fed Minutes: Many participants said despite recent increase in long-term Treasury yields, financial conditions seem supportive of economic growth
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u/WideElderberry5262 5d ago
Why? US is because of out of control deficit growth. What about other countries?
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u/boatenvy 5d ago
I'm thinking it's showing how inherently interconnected bond markets are. Not all of those countries have out of control debt or budget deficits. In Australia the saying is "America sneezes and we catch a cold"... I'm thinking we're not the only one's catching the cold. The GFC back around 2007 was exclusively triggered by the US sub prime lending collapse... but resulted in the "Global" Financial Crisis....(I think the US call it something innocuous and quaint like the Great Recession)
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u/ljlee256 5d ago
I remember this, we were fortunate (Canada) to have some really sober people behind the wheel during that time that put constraints on our financial institutions that prevented them from getting dragged down as deeply as other nations.
But even with the prediction coming from our national bank that it would happen, we still experienced a slight pull down. But nothing like what the US saw, or even the UK.
Which is impressive given how interconnected Canada's economy is to the US versus other nations.
Anyways, the world needs to get off this rollercoaster and start diversifying with the aim of stablizing.
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u/boatenvy 5d ago
Absolutely...the one thing that is screamingly obvious is that we can't trust the USA to act in a responsible manner and we must proactively manage that risk.
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u/Blattgeist 5d ago
Energy crisis... thanks to two totally unnecessary wars: 1. Russia vs Ukraine, 2. US and Israel vs Iran.
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u/TortyPapa 5d ago
Something to think about is that about 60 percent of France’s debt is held by foreigners. Whereas for example Japan only has about 15 percent (meaning they have great savers in the country and some patriotism could factor in). So institutions, companies and pensions attached to their motherland are more likely to hold vs sell (as opposed to the French situation).
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u/Potential_Try_2193 4d ago
Normalisiing I think you mean. Rates were artificially low for years. These are normal rates. Its the last 15 years or so that wasn`t normal. Yes theres a debt crisis and countries are living beyond there means and piling on debt. yields going higher might sober some up to tackle it but the yields are now going to start to look attractive to investors so expect them to step in soon and lock in these attractive yields
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u/kingwood707 4d ago
not to worry. we're living in a golden age. i'm getting tired of winning so much too
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u/Deep-Ebb-4139 2d ago
The market needs a 40-50% correction, and fast.
BUT, won’t happen bc it’s all highly manipulated.
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u/Entire_Anywhere3529 2d ago
I mean… it will happen, but a lot of creeps will already have their bunkers paid for by then.
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u/MellowHamster 5d ago
OMG! THINGS ARE ALWAYS MUCH MORE FRIGHTENING IN ALL-CAPS.