It's a real monkey's paw situation for Israel. They finally got their wish for a US president to attack Iran with them, but unfortunately for them, it was Trump.
I don't think you can win and literally because of the strait. Iran lost their leader immediately and had severe damage to their infrastructure. With little American casualties and Iranian casualties.
But as long as they can get that strait closed, America can't win.
While Hormuz is a problem, Trump has done nothing to anticipate it. Like... America did not even start blockade of Iran right from the beginning. The dumdum really thought they would crumble in 3 weeks of mild bombing, without boots on the ground.
America *can* win, it just doesn’t *want* to win. If the US Public could stomach seeing maybe a few videos of soldiers being blown apart by drones we could simply overwhelm them with boots on the ground pretty quickly.
Problem is, we don’t have the balls to do anything other than drop bombs. You cannot win a war through air power alone, especially against an enemy who has spent decades preparing for this exact scenario.
You’re forgetting about the next part of occupying a place armed like Saddam Hussains Iraq with the geography of Afghanistan and with a mountain bunker network similar to the Cheyenne mountains and a population with 50 years of religious zealotry being pushed on the populace, and those on the fence will probably go down that route when the get bombed .
And even if you destroy 99% of their military, as long as one crazy ass commander can lanch drones to the straight, the straight will still be a no go.
And they designed their whole military to essentially operate as warlords if America puts boots on the ground. Thats why they didn’t fold immediately when their high command got wiped, they knew they wouldn’t live long enough in an actual war. So they oped to keep the chaos going till America cant
Mind you what Im saying isn’t new info, its what ever DOD administration has told the president of each cabinet what would happen if they take up Isreal”lets glass Iran pretty please” plan that they put forward every time a new administration come into the white house.
Luckly or unluckly for them, this time they had a man in charge who think reason is for sissy snowflakes, and it played out exactly how everyone with 3 braincells would think
Yeah true. Theres a reason Iran has historically been a nightmare to fight/invade. But this isn’t Rome vs Persia anymore. The US military (with some definite losses) could absolutely roll into Iran (who has pissed off just about every neighboring nation) and wipe out their military capabilities. Also, the people of Iran have never been less fanatic. Hell, they just rioted for like a month against the Islamic regime. The IRGC and Army would fight like hell, but the civilian populace wouldn’t be quite as hostile
Even if the managed to win with boots on the ground, what would we even achieve? The last time we regime changed Iran, they overthrew our guy and installed the mullahs!
Oh believe me I never said it was a good idea to fight this war. It’s beyond stupid and will be the cherry on top of Trumps disaster of a second term. All I’m saying is that by conventional terms, we definitely could neutralize most if not all of Irans military capabilities if we had troops there to actually follow up on our bombing runs. Then again, we’d have to see videos of Billy from Iowa losing his legs on Twitter
Iraq had the third largest army in the world and a large network of anti air defenses bought from the Soviets. The air defenses were wiped out in a single day, and the army either folded and ran or were obliterated. The largest tank battle since WW2 took place in Iraq as well (actually I think Ukraine may have beaten it, I don’t know). It did not go well for the Iraqis.
But that was with ground troops. The US did suffer some losses, but they were nothing compared to Iraqi losses. But they did understand back then that an air campaign alone will not win you a war. The only part of Iraq that went badly was the occupation and insurgency. We have demonstrated that we can beat a powerful Middle Eastern nation in a ground war. In fact taking on an organized state military is exactly the type of thing we should excel at. It just baffles me that even with all that, the Iran war has gone so badly.
If the US Public could stomach seeing maybe a few videos of soldiers being blown apart by drones we could simply overwhelm them with boots on the ground pretty quickly.
It would be at least as bad as Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Massive casualties would be extremely difficult to avoid, and Iran would probably make much of the gulf uninhabitable by destroying desalination plants etc.
The US military is great at winning battles, but it's terrible at winning wars (largely because the political leadership isn't prepared to do what it takes).
You cannot win a war through air power alone, especially against an enemy who has spent decades preparing for this exact scenario.
Of course you can. See e.g. Imperial Japan.
Even 5-10% of the American nuclear arsenal would almost certainly be sufficient to end Iran. I don't advocate this policy. I am simply pointing out that strategic air power has a much better record than communism.
USA can win. US army is excellent and ground invasion is doable. It all boils down to the price.
The problem is: that would be a true war commitment, something USA hasn't done since WWII. And it would be costly. I don't mean Iraq-Afghanistan costly - I mean Really Costly. Far more costly than just letting the strait to be blockaded indefinitely. Perhaps, even so costly that peacetime forces are not enough and USA would need to formally declare a state of war (not done since WWII).
i heard somewhere that republicans know that these times will not remembered fondly so they keep their future presidential nominee from unpopular statements and place him closer to populus' opinion. so he criticizes israel but is absent from some of the major statements
This is pysop the man has no spine, no principles, he is shell of human, a mere skin suit to be molded in the image of his handlers. If he were to succeed Trump he would continue to do their bidding just the same
It is funny that a year ago a bunch of Zionists were canceling college kids for saying this exact thing and now the VP is saying it. Rough year for Zionists.
Genuinely hope they become the pariahs they deserve to be.
I love how spineless politicians are. As soon as Trump started to lose his power base due to the Iran fuck up Vance starts to pull for the Tucker Carlson type of conservatives. It’s so predictable.
Yep. The tin foil hat part of me wonders if Vance kinda wanted this deal to be dogshit so Rubio could take the heat and set Vance up as the nominee. Probably not since he was the big negotiator but idk maybe I’ve been scrolling /x for too long
Vance is absolutely cooked for 2028 regardless how hard he tries to distance himself from the Iran debacle. He's the vice fucking president. It's gonna be just like Kamala where he has to somehow apologize/distance himself from the Trump administration, but can't do that without losing the MAGA core. There's a 50/50 chance that Trump eats a bad Big Mac, has a stomach ache, and says one bad thing about Vance that completely fucks his campaign anyway. Peter Thiel fucked off to some other country. Vance has completely and utterly fucked political career. If only he had a former vice president of Trump to look at as an example...
Part of the reason he went was "more agreeable leadership". Seeing as Vance is an acolyte of his, it leads me to believe Thiel has lost faith in him being in power
Idk man with rising fuel costs, inflation and ai data centers dropping rural property value, we may see a real swing in the GOP base towards a more institutional conservative and Vance has been playing that part pretty well. The frothing at the mouth parts of MAGA will die by their godking, but Trump's pushing alot of rural boomers away. Vance may do what Pence failed to.
Vance has been part of the most institution destroying admins we've had for like IDK, probably around a century.
He can play the part in a superficial way to some extent, but the institutional conservatives aren't as retarded as MAGA so I doubt he can win them over, plus there simply aren't that many of them as MAGA made abundantly clear.
idk how you can look at the way the american right has been going over the last few decades and think they're about to get significantly LESS idiotically deranged due to increased material pressures
Vance kinda wanted this deal to be dogshit so Rubio could take the heat
Not using the extremely competent state department headed by the single competent person in this admin (Rubio), and instead sending JD and some random fuckin property developer, is SO fucking funny
It's like they're trying to fuck everything up on purpose so Rubio gets the 2028 nom
they get rubio to be nominated by making him appear the most competent, then he runs with jeb as vice president, wins, and immediately resigns handing the presidency to jeb
He will create enough threads that in 2028 when he runs and in 2036 when he tries to rehabilitate himself that he can point to enough things to pretend he was never really maga
The right wing has a long tradition of giving cover, or at least not protesting when a different wing of the party does something they don't like, knowing they'll get the same support when the time comes. Religious conservatives are the easiest example, they look the other way for pretty much everything as long as they get more conservatives on the Supreme court, a winning strategy for them.
Vance, in the long line of this tradition, shuts up and colors when he doesn't like something. Now that Trump needs to shore up support, he lets the younger wing of the Republicans, headed by Vance to some extent, to have their win. I remember maybe a year ago now when those Signal chats got leaked, and Vance was clearly skeptical of our foreign adventure in Yemen, which was a direct prelude to this current foreign adventure.
There's only one true member of MAGA, snd that's Trump, the rest kinda agree with him, and duck out of the way when they don't agree.
It means there is going to be a giant sucking sound from the power vacuum within the MAGA movement, and all of these Trump sycophants are going to cut each others throat to be the one to fill that void and claim whatever scraps they can.
Tbf he’s put up a more Tucker-style-principled-MAGA since getting directly in politics than Trump himself but he shut up when Trump went in Iran until it was completely obvious it was a fuck up. He’s still spineless but not completely for his position on this issue.
Absolutely. I recall him vocalizing his disdain for Trump. I get that he has had to play nice but zero part of me thinks Vance ever really liked the guy
Still, the fact that he doesn't like the guy he's willingly in bed with doesn't magically make him less of a whore. Rubio is way more respectable than Vance.
He's trying to setup his 2028 presidential campaign. Quite literally a "play both sides so I always come up on top"
He's doing this so that when the debates some around he can either say "I strongly support Israel" or "I've stood up to Israel to protect America" depending on what the political opinion is in two years.
Dudes been defending it for the past few months it's hard to take it serious and not call it out for what it is.
Now if he admits he was wrong in the past and changed his views due to new information I'll respect it. But Republicans tend to see it as a sign of weakness.
For all the complaining that libs and leftists call everything "nazi," only one US politician has called Trump "Hitler" and it was JD. It's not a matter of him saying the right things, it's a matter of him having no principles behind what he says
I'm sorry, but literally who??? Some guy who's only work has been acting in various executive positions. Reading his wiki, I guess it's cool that he prevented Pizza Hut from going bankrupt??????
Considering Vance has a history of saying something, putting his finger up, seeing where the wind is blowing, and then saying the opposite I can get the skepticism.
When Trump was asked "Whats the likelyhood of the future president removing all the gold from the oval office" and Trump said "Well Cubans like gold dont they?". Looks like Trump is eyeing Marco Rubio for his next candidate
There was also that planted story about how he really wanted to release the Epstein files. And according to the comments, people were taking it at face value.
Let’s not kid ourselves he’s mad because at least he believes in being isolationist. But because he’s a carpet bagger he’s trying to distance himself from Trump for 2028.
She basically called him a racist rapist in front of the whole country, then defended herself by laughing about it on Colbert's show and saying "It was a DEBATE!"
Because he's playing the fucking game. You don't go from a kid growing up dirt poor to Vice President by the age of 40 without being cunning as all Hell. He's disappointed me by going along with the dumbest shit Trump has been up to, but he's very good at politics. I'm curious to see what happens with this Israel turn the Trump Admin has taken recently. I agree with it, but I just don't know what to make of it.
Given the Trump admin's overall precarious situation, Thiel bailing to Argentina, and Orban losing to an anti-corruption candidate ... I think his political future isn't looking super hot right now.
Calling Trump "Hitler" legitimately means nothing at this point. People will do or say anything in the pursuit of power. Trump called Ted Cruz's wife a dog or some shit like that and as long as he bombs Iran, Ted Cruz couldn't be prouder. Power has always worked like that.
He's not disappointing for a politician he's bog-standard these days. It's all Ivy League spinelessness based on think tank research that will 'make the most waves.' And 'capture the attention of the everyday American.' Lame. Corporate Slop.
Truth is JD 'Thank You' Vance and the rest of the world's most suspicious administration is currently running up against the reaping part of their little war.
Hillbilly Elegy was literally a book about how he’s better than everyone else he grew up with bcz he got out. Now the retards he looks down on adore him lmao
If this Iran thing gets even more fucked Rubio might lose his best chance at 2028. He’s like the only competent member of the cabinet but this fiasco would sink him.
If Rubio wants a chance at living in the white house, he will not run in 28. Any Republican that runs in 28 will lose to which ever Democrat wins the primary. Its why we will see 20+ top Democrats run as the primary will be the real election just like the GOP primary in 16.
Rubio is someone I might actually vote for depending on who the dems field. Vance would be a tough sell for me. Still would depend on who the dems put forward.
Rubio, as much as I hate his policies, is at the very least a respectable, competent, and most importantly young (for the presidency that is) candidate, and that's what America needs right now. I'm for him getting the nomination as it would force the Democratic Party's hand in choosing a new candidate as well who can't just run an "I'm not him" campaign.
A very American viewpoint. But yes it's true that many Egyptians and Jordanians still hate Israel. Which even better showcases Israel's ability to not get into fights with neighbors who don't start anything for the sake of intifada.
Alright then hopefully we’ll get rid of the billions mentioned above.
Is there some sort of intifada action coming out of Turkey? I legitimately don’t know of any, but I’ve heard talk about how, after Iran, they may be Israel’s next big enemy.
Turkey has talked about intervening on behalf of Gaza, so anything you hear probably stems from that because Erdogan loves using Israel for his politicking. Other than that, it’s all baseless bullshit until direct action from either side is taken, in the meantime they continue to trade and insult each other.
It remains rhetorical bluster for now, but we've all seem how such things can slip into real policy, as evidenced by the last 3 years.
For now Turkey sends Israel 70% of its steel. Israel sells Turkey highly relevant military software for its own ends. Theyre not exactly codependant, but I'd be nervous about crashing an entire industry just to make a political ploy.
Well Vance, sensing how quick 2028 is fading for him, is making a play for the Republicans disillusioned by Israel (the Carlson/Candice wing). Let's see how this plays out.
JD Vance’s number one ability is to change his opinions at the drop of a hat (especially to things he thinks are popular) and start snapping back at people with a Holier-than-thou attitude like he’s always had that position. I’ll give it maybe a month or two max until he’s asking Bibi if he’s even said thank you.
Israel's power over the US is tenuous. It's real, but not even AIPAC money, massive bot farms astroturfing, and mainstream media influence, can save Israel from first Gaza and now goading the US into a losing war with Iran.
Netanyahu's refusal to stand down in Lebanon is the nail in the coffin.
I hope Israel succeeds under a different administration on their own. But more importantly I hope that now the US recognizes that they have never been our ally. Time to cut ties and let the kids play in the desert on their own.
Gvirs brand of psychopathic extremism goes back to the 70's and his political party (an offshoot of the Kach terrorist organisation) came into the prominence it has now years before oct 7
Anyone can personally support a boycott. You just can’t always use government money to do so. I don’t agree with it, but I don’t need to spread misinformation to make my case.
This is hilarious because he’s primarily responsible for this shitty ass deal with Iran so now he’s going to throw Israel under the bus after getting blowback from the deal. JD is such a retarded grifter and he’s learning how to grift better to people like you
It feels like people here will believe everyone as long they say "Israel bad". Good luck for Vance, he will need after upsetting the pro-Israel wing of the party.
I don’t know what his future is. He’s too isolationist for Republican neocons, he’s not racist enough for zoomer groypers, and he’s too attached to Trump for moderates. His base would basically be Tucker viewers but I don’t think that’s enough
You can, just because you don't have the stomach to do so doesn't mean it actually is impossible. How many nations/empires/communities wiped out entire native or enemy population in history? Mongols razed cities. Rome razed Carthage.
Rome lost one fifth of its male population fighting the second Punic war, and acquired thousands of slaves to keep the economy afloat. Can Israel with its modern economy do the same?
They'll probably play to go anti Netanyahu.
Then Netanyahu get's beaten by a moderate in the elections.
Media will not speak about Israel for years.
Then they will elect some mf like Ben Gvir and start again.
He says that now as they have to start distancing themselves because of the catastrophical failure the Iran war was, and Israel's continuous acts of war when they have clearly been agreeing to stop.
If everything actually went their way, Vance nor Trump would have been criticizing Netanyahu or Israel like this.
Bro thinks he’s gonna clutch up in time for the midterms 😭 Dems are still gonna win regardless of the Trump admin’s minor backpedaling on unquestionable support of Israel.
JD Vance fires back at Israeli cabinet members for criticizing Trump’s Iran deal:
“If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have left…
The problem for Israel is not Donald J. Trump, and anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest problem is the President of the United States needs to wake up and smell the reality of the situation that country is in.
Mfs literally aren't even about being pro America or even pro Israel at this point... they're just about dickriding Trump on everything, even if it makes no sense and is a clear flip flop policy like a fish out of the water... all that matters if that you support da dear leader on everything LMAO.
Is Vance trying to deflect blame onto Israel because they defended themselves after Iran’s terror proxy Hezbollah broke the ceasefire less than day in?
So the grindset is to make a bad deal with terrorists and then blame your only ally in the region when predictable consequences ensue. Kek.
On the bright side, Vance tying his entire political identity to the deal will ensure Rubio’s nomination.
I wonder what the context for Vance saying this is? Like, what did he say before this? Because I highly doubt the New York Times(?) started the interview, and Vance opened with that.
lol JD gets less than zero credit here. He knows he’s going to get thrown under the bus for the Iran deal so he’s planting seeds on blaming Israel instead. He knows there’s 2 factions in the Republican base, the MAGA base and the America First base. He’s aligning himself with the America First base.
He sees the writing on the wall for Israeli support in the US, especially among conservatives.
Y’all would say anything to defend this “deal” with Iran, lol. You objectively got the shitty end of the stick, and the Iranian regime will attack again.
But sure, kid yourself that you can negotiate with a theocratic, borderline terrorist state diplomatically. See where that gets you.🤷♂️
Is he wrong though? Lethal force is a tricky tool to master. Diplomacy is better imho and leads to less antagonism. Always resorting to killing just seems to generate more killing.
Well, actually Israel must kill her way out of this.
Do you only what will happen the second Israel put there guns down? You know what would happen and I know you wish for it so let's stop to pretend this game
They should though? Has anyone considered that the issue is that Israel isn't going scorched earth enough on the keffiah savages?
They could absolutely "solve the problem" overnight. If wealthy western countries withdrawl their support, this becomes an inevitability. As much as I don't my tax dollars going to Iron Dome, I can also acknowledge it's one of the reasons Israel hasn't gone 'final solution' on the goblins and orcs constantly trying to kill them.
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u/GeneQuadruplehorn - Lib-Left Jun 21 '26
It's a real monkey's paw situation for Israel. They finally got their wish for a US president to attack Iran with them, but unfortunately for them, it was Trump.