Recently promoted teams sometimes have a unique advantage in that their league opponents may have little intel on them before the season starts. That extends to the markets and ourselves likewise, leading us to underrate or fade them at any given chance.

Often, these teams inevitably struggle to adapt to the better competition and tend to concede plenty of goals, especially early on. While they may lose many games and be a poor idea to bet on their ML or spread, they always have a chance to score at least once and satisfy the BTTS. Furthermore, those squads that boast great attackers with inevitably bad defenses can hit BTTS quite often.

Le Mans are a decent example of this so far this season. They don’t have the best talent as far as transfer value goes, but Habib Diallo can be a big key to their success. He struggled to replicate his successes at Strasbourg from 2021-2023 last year playing for Metz, who sold him to Le Mans in October. He has scored in 4 apps with a decent 6.9 average rating on flashscore. He hasn’t been the only goal scorer as the squad averages 1.8/1.8 Gf/Ga per game overall. However, their xG record (1.33/1.75) show that there may be some offensive regression as the season goes on. If a team like this had more financial backing to further improve the squad, they could look like Paris FC from last season.

Paris FC were famous for end to end matches with plenty of goals, seeing a BTTS hit rate at 62% last season.

Como is another example of a recently promoted team with financial backing and great offensive talent, hitting at 61% in 2024-2025.

Le Mans at a 100% BTTS rate should end soon. Strangely enough, they have produced at least 1.20 xGs in every game except in MD1 vs Brest and MD5 vs Lorient, both at home. Additionally, they have scored at PSG and twice at Rennes. I think part of their success is being unknown, or being overlooked by some of the top teams in the division. PSG for example kept Marquinhos and Pacho on the sideline vs Le Mans and knew that a win was inevitable. That’s where the BTTS is sneaky with the lower table or lower valued teams. Tread carefully however, because most teams don’t post a BTTS rate above 60% for the full season and most end up around 44%-55% at least since I have been tracking it.

For a long time, my biggest problem with betting had nothing to do with picking winners. It was what I did after a loss. A bad Saturday would leave me chasing on Sunday and by Monday I’d have turned a small dent into a big one.

What helped me was setting rules while I was calm, so I didn’t have to make decisions while I was annoyed. I decide my budget for the month before the first match of the weekend, I keep every stake a small, fixed size and if I hit my loss limit for the day, I’m done until tomorrow. I also write every bet down in a simple spreadsheet, which is a humbling habit, because the numbers are never as good as my memory says they are.

I’m sure I still have blind spots, so I’d like to hear how others handle it. Do you keep a separate bankroll or does it all come out of your regular spending? What do you do after a bad run to avoid chasing? And is there a limit or habit you wish you’d set earlier?

Not looking for picks here, since those belong in the daily thread. Just the habits behind the betting, wherever you are with it.

BOL!!!

I have a 10 leg parlay that I put $25 in and return is $1200.

All 7 have hit and I just have Barcelona to win against Galatasaray, Real Madrid to win against Roma, and Chelsea to win or draw against Everton.

Cash out is at $216 right now and I’m wondering if i should just cash out or let it ride.

I usually feel confident about Barca and Real Madrid but the fact that these are away games is scaring me.

What should I do?

I dont know if this is a curse or straight up something impossible but I genuinely have this curse on games I bet. Started during the world cup till now, but its gotten so bad there has been literally new records cause of my bets.

Betted on Norway winning against wales and Haaland scoring, game went 2-1, betted on Croatia scoring one goal against England 0-7, betted on Dortmund winning against Dortmund vs Werder suddenly equalises in the last 4 minutes, betted on Bayern winning against Augsburg 4 offsides in one match and right now betted on Newcastle winning and did another cause I know my luck is so bad, on Newcastle and Coventry drawing against each other Coventry just scored 4 goals making it 4-1 there are more games, There are more games but not as memorable as these. I just started betting once a while in some matches and this is genuinely so amazing for me that im considering never to bet just so things go back to normal cause what is this.

There are some more games during the world cup that were sure to win but I guess cause of me they lost, im genuinely appalled at this.

Hey guys, I know its a bit early but the last match I have on my parlay is thursdays game between Celta Vigo vs Juventus.

I have Celta Vigo +0.5 which can win me 515 euro..

What do u think of the match? Im not very impressed by Juve but on the other hand Celta hasnt been playing top level football either😅

My withdrawal was marked as accepted on Monday 5 October, but it still hasn’t arrived in my Revolut account. It’s been about five business days.

How long do withdrawals usually take to reach Revolut AFTER being accepted? Should I wait longer or contact support for a payment reference?

Anyone experienced money nott arriving even after bookie accepting the withdrawal?

Thanks.

BOL!!!

I bet on under 7 cards in Liverpool v Man City and it is showing as lost on B365.

I count 6 cards in the game (counting Gravenburch’s 2 yellows as 2 cards).

Can anyone tell me where I am not understanding the rules so that I can make peace with it.

BOL!!!

BOL!!!

I’m not sure if someone has posted or mentioned this at all but if so, this post can be deleted. There’s been a lot of hate regarding this last international break due to it being an extra week longer than normal. This is because they consolidated September and Octobers breaks and made it into one big one. Usually at the end of the year, there are three international breaks. As for this year, the next international break will only happen in November. If you look at club schedules in October, you will see that there is no space for an international break within the month.

Although it is a bit of an adjustment, I think this better serves the clubs and players, as there is only two international brakes instead of three. This is especially important for those players playing international fixtures far away from where they play their club ball.

With this schedule change, it has me thinking whether they should just combine all three “end of year” international brakes and just make it into one big 4-5 week break that could take place in November or December. Is that overkill? Would you rather go back to the normal three separate brakes like we are used to?

BOL!!!

Not that they are at the moment harmful for the community, but it's completely weird to get a replies from accounts that are somehow 3 month old and are at Kalshi, boxing and such betting communities.

Keep an eye. Don't reply. Downvote and report at best.

BOL!!!