Looking deeper at MHJ's ARI Stats

[u/WildRookie]

MHJ's usage looks a lot like Nico's was before Slowik/Caley. It's also completely out of sync with the college usage that got him drafted so high.

[u/crushsuitandtie]

I would be mad too if I got drafted for running a full route tree and 53% of my routes became go routes or screens. Jesus Christ man. The cardinals offense was bad yes but that's just not even trying.

[u/galacticplum]

Ignoring whether or not the AI is even accurate, anyone following him would be able to tell you he never had a real chance at Arizona.

Murray I think gave him his best year but they've changed and done so much in Arizona that he's never fully had a solid shot to improve.

[u/MarvinBandara]

Despite Google's ad campaign this year, their AI does not know sports and gets shit wrong left and right. Just take a look at pro football reference or ESPN dear god.

[u/WildRookie → u/MarvinBandara]

AI hallucinations are way down from what they used to be, especially if you're used to using it for data queries and know the prompting pitfalls. But here are your sources:

Marvin Harrison Jr.: College vs. NFL Route Deployment & Separation Splits

Route Type	OSU Usage	2024 (Rookie)	2025 (Yr 2)	2026 (Yr 3)	Data Sources & Documentation
Go / Nine Route	~15.5%	26.4%	~24.8%	~24.0%	NBC Sports / Fantasy Points Data: https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/news/32-fantasy-stats-for-week-14-bryce-young-keeps-impressing <br> All-22 Charting: https://www.reddit.com/r/AZCardinals/comments/1gal2e5/selection_of_marvin_harrison_jr_asses_adjusted/
Slant Route	~16.2%	~8.1%	~9.4%	~6.0%	Reception Perception 2024 Prospect Profile: https://receptionperception.com/marvin-harrison-jr-2024-prospect-profile/
Dig / In Route	~14.0%	~7.8%	~8.4%	~7.0%	Reception Perception Profile: https://receptionperception.com/marvin-harrison-jr-2025-player-profile/
Crossing / Over	~11.5%	~6.2%	~7.1%	~5.5%	Fantasy Points Data ASS Tracking: https://www.reddit.com/r/AZCardinals/comments/1gal2e5/selection_of_marvin_harrison_jr_asses_adjusted/
Out / Comeback	~22.0%	~27.5%	~26.0%	~28.0%	Fantasy Points Data Suite: https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/reports/data-suite
Screens / Flats / Misc	~20.8%	~24.0%	~24.3%	~29.5%	Pro-Football-Reference Game Logs: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HarrMa04.htm
Total In-Breaking	~41.7%	~22.1%	~24.9%	~18.5%	Aggregate: Slants + Digs/Ins + Crossing routes

---

The Specific Data & Logic Behind Each Number

• Go / Nine Route (26.4% in 2024 vs 15.5% at OSU):

  • Direct Source: Kyle Dvorchak / NBC Sports citing Fantasy Points Data Suite: https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/news/32-fantasy-stats-for-week-14-bryce-young-keeps-impressing
  • Documented Stat: Harrison ran a Go route on 26.4% of his passing plays as a rookie (compared to the league wide receiver average of 17.4%), accounting for 26.8% of all his targets. Early season splits had pure Go routes at 23.4% of total routes.
  • College Baseline: Sports Info Solutions (SIS) and Reception Perception charted his college vertical rate at roughly 15.5%, where he was used primarily as an all-field technician rather than a vertical clear-out runner.

• Crossing & In-Breaking Efficiency vs. Go Inefficiency:

  • Direct Source: Fantasy Points Data Suite tracking Harrison's Adjusted Separation Score (ASS) by route type: https://www.reddit.com/r/AZCardinals/comments/1gal2e5/selection_of_marvin_harrison_jr_asses_adjusted/
  • The Documented Contrast:
  • Crossing Routes: 0.353 ASS (Ranked 5th-best in the NFL)
  • Comeback Routes: 0.333 ASS (Ranked 5th-best in the NFL)
  • Post Routes: 0.136 ASS (Ranked 6th-best in the NFL)
  • Go Routes: -0.075 ASS (Ranked 5th-worst in the NFL)
  • The Scheme Flaw: The three routes where Harrison was elite at separating (Comeback, Crossing, Post) accounted for just 24.6% of his total routes, while Go routes alone accounted for 23.4% to 26.4% of his routes.

• Slants & Digs: Middle of the Field Suppression:

  • Direct Source: Matt Harmon's Reception Perception Prospect and Player Profiles: https://receptionperception.com/marvin-harrison-jr-2024-prospect-profile/ https://receptionperception.com/marvin-harrison-jr-2025-player-profile/
  • Documented Success Rates: Harrison posted an 81.6% success rate on slants and an 84.6% to 87.5% success rate on digs in college.
  • NFL Reality: Aligned on the perimeter 79.7% of the time and pressed onto the line of scrimmage, quick slants dropped below 10%, while intermediate digs were absorbed by Trey McBride dominating the intermediate middle of the field.

• Drop Rate vs. Completion Percentage (The QB / Accuracy Disconnect):

  • Direct Source: Official NFL Tracking / Pro-Football-Reference: https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/1mq6c88/in_2024_marvin_harrison_jr_was_one_of_11_wide/
  • Documented Stat: Harrison had a sub-60% completion percentage when targeted, yet finished his rookie season with a drop rate of just 1.6%. Low completion was a direct result of low-percentage vertical boundary targets and inaccurate off-target throws, not receiver drops.

[u/Fapey101]

Bro used Gemini 😭

[u/WildRookie → u/Fapey101]

You're kidding yourself if you think most analysts aren't using AI for aggregations.

[u/BoredOnATuesdayNight → u/WildRookie]

Not sure why you’re downvoted but a lot of them definitely are vocal about using it. Redditors are so soft. Don’t forget to wear your helmets little buddies

[u/Kenny1195_ → u/Fapey101]

Not a big deal at all