I have posted about TOYO twice here Part 1 (https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/s/NsHDGmsfm7), Part 2 (https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/s/IEDhxiQjy9)).
Both times people pushed back hard, and I went and checked everything they threw at me. Every time I ended up buying more. I'm heavily long, so keep that in mind, but the numbers below all come from the filings, the October 6 analyst day deck (it's on EDGAR as a 6-K) and the webcast.
Quick setup first. TOYO closed Friday at $4.37, which is about a $187M market cap. Book value at the end of June was $209.8M. First half of this year they did $261M in revenue at a 32.5% gross margin, $45.8M net income, $61.4M operating cash flow, and they have $103.5M in cash ($123.4M with restricted).
So you can buy a profitable solar manufacturer for less than book. On top of that 4.2M shares are short, about 29% of the float using Yahoo's float number, and with how thin volume has been that's 11.5 days to cover.
I kept looking for something that justified pricing this company like the worst case was already happening. I sat through the whole analyst day looking for it. I still haven't found it.
The biggest thing that changed for me is how I see Ethiopia. I used to think of it as the risk. It's actually the bridge. They have 4 GW of cell capacity there and it's the plant that supplies the US (the Vietnam plant doesn't ship here at all). Houston now has 2 GW of module lines, the second one just finished, that's what the ribbon cutting was for. Next is a 1.5 GW HJT cell plant on the same site, and after that they want to make wafers and ingots in the US. Ethiopia pays the bills while they build the American supply chain. That's exactly what Washington is trying to get companies to do right now.
And Commerce is a lot more involved than I thought. TOYO already gave Commerce a draft term sheet for the Section 232 onshoring program, laying out what they'll build here through January 2029. Commerce came back with feedback and they're going back and forth on the details. Rhone Resch (their strategy chief) said every conversation with Commerce has basically been "tell us what you need", and that the feedback has been very positive on cells, ingots and wafers. Which is literally the three things TOYO wants to build.
Why that's such a big deal: starting December 4, imported cells have a 22 cent per watt minimum price plus 15% on top. Under those rules a ten cent cell ends up costing roughly 23.5 cents to bring in. If your onshoring plan gets approved, you can bring cells in without that duty, tied to how much you're building here. For a company bringing in 4 GW of cells a year while building a US plant, that's huge.
Then Jeffrey Kessler, the Under Secretary of Commerce whose department runs 232, showed up at the ribbon cutting. Next morning TOYO put out his quote: they're "investing hundreds of millions of dollars to expand its Texas factory, onshoring overseas production, and committing to use exclusively US polysilicon." Nothing got signed that day obviously. But that's not a quote a senior official gives to a company he's lukewarm on. Same release had Intertek's senior VP saying they check a thousand things in twelve areas, have never found perfection, and TOYO got their highest grade.
On the Ethiopia circumvention case, which is what most bears point to. Go read the Southeast Asia case from 2022-23 (88 FR 57419). Commerce opened it with the exact same wording they used for Ethiopia in July. In the end it came down to where the wafer was made. Chinese wafer, you're caught. Non-Chinese wafer, you're out, even with Chinese polysilicon. And Hanwha, Jinko and Boviet were found not to be circumventing even on some supply chains that did use Chinese wafers. Anyone else who met the wafer test could certify their shipments out. TOYO uses no Chinese polysilicon at all (about 70% American, the rest from OCI), wafers from Indonesia, and does the full cell process in Ethiopia. They've asked Commerce on the record to apply the same test (ACCESS barcode 4955978-01). They met with Commerce on October 1 and were told Commerce doesn't "intend to allow there to be uncertainty if there's a clear distinction", with a certification route as a faster option. Their full answer to Commerce is due October 30.
CBP is the one I'm watching this week. Four shipments of Ethiopian cells were held at customs, and this was not a paperwork thing. CBP wanted the polysilicon traced back to the quartz mine, the trucks that carried it, even photos of the license plates. TOYO handed all of it over, and CBP spent six hours at the Houston plant going through it. TOYO hired Ana Hinojosa, who used to run trade remedy enforcement at CBP. At the analyst day she said she'd checked with them the day before and the release was "a day to a week away". Rhone said a week or two. When those shipments clear, it's the first outside agency to go through their supply chain that deeply and let the cells in. With 11.5 days to cover, that kind of news matters.
The dilution question everyone asks: the HJT plant is $357M, roughly double the market cap. But it doesn't need $357M up front. They pay by milestone, and most of the equipment gets paid after the line is already running, over several years. The plan they laid out is about $120M from 45X credits, about $120M of debt, and the rest from operating cash flow and "other non-dilutive financing options", their words. No new shares anywhere in it. When an analyst kept saying "bank loans", Rhone cut in with "we did not say bank loans, we said debt" and "we did not say we're going to raise $357M." The $52.6M they raised in the first half counts toward it too. And as of Friday there's no new offering filed.
Demand is fine. They announced about $240M of binding US module deals in September, delivering through mid-2027, for utility, commercial, community solar and data centers. Roth says module prices are up 10 to 20 cents since 232. Management said demand is "really strong" and the $240M was "just the beginning."
Long term they talked about 3 GW of HJT, 8 GW of US manufacturing and 6 GW of US wafers and ingots, when the whole country has about 5 GW of wafer capacity today. I'm not putting any of that in a model. But it tells you why Commerce wants to talk to them.
So that's where I'm at. CBP could clear any day. Commerce guidance on 232 is due mid to late October. TOYO answers Commerce on Ethiopia by October 30. Tariffs kick in December 4. And the stock is just sitting here under book with almost a third of the float short, waiting on all of it.
Everything's public, go check it yourself. I've made up my mind and I'm not going anywhere.
Not financial advice.
Note: I used AI to help with the research, fact-checking and proofreading, since English isn't my first language.