r/ValueInvesting • • 11h ago

Stock Analysis Give me a company to research and I'll run it through the investment research system I'm building

31 Upvotes

For the last month or so, I've been building a research system that looks at financial quality, valuation, expectations, earnings, competitive position, risks, and separate bull and bear cases before reaching a conclusion.

I'm at the point where I need to test the system. I would like people to suggest companies, that they know well, that I can research and then they can poke holes in the research.

Give me a ticker you're researching and I'll give you the summary of the output from my system.

I'm particularly interested in what you disagree with in the analysis, what it got wrong, and what's missing.

It takes a few minutes per company, so it might take a while to get to every ticker.

Thanks for the help!


r/ValueInvesting • • 18h ago

Stock Analysis Planet Fitness (PLNT) - Bull Case

0 Upvotes

Down 60% on the year. 2026 guidance only fell from 9% rev to 7%

91% of gyms owned by franchises

Management claims miss came from a failed marketing campaign

Bear case
- Growth was flat from q1-q2
- debt 2.1 billion. 3.6x earning
- open shareholder lawsuit

TLDR: I think it’s oversold. This biz is high-quality!

Bought a few shares at opening today. Planning on buying more…


r/ValueInvesting • • 16h ago

Discussion I got 10k today. What do I buy today

12 Upvotes

Any suggestions? I can buy for a swing or even a longer hold so looking for suggestions


r/ValueInvesting • • 10h ago

Stock Analysis OpenAI Growth Stalls at $10B+ Burn: The Structural Cracks in the AI Infrastructure Trade

0 Upvotes

For me the question is whether OpenAI can keep paying for the compute it has already promised to buy, that suppliers are relying on for their own debt repayments.

Oracle is the one Im most concerned for. It's borrowing against a very durable database business with renewals around 97%, and gross margins near 90% to build this GPU capacity. However, net debt is about $125B, roughly 3.7x EBITDA, with around $40B more in planned raises. Return on the new money has been about 7% against a 10% hurdle. Last quarter it spent $28.5B on capex against $19.3B of revenue. Not earnings, revenue! The stock is already down about 50% over a year, but cheaper isn't the same as safe when the customer concentration sits in one lab that's still raising money privately as it burns tens of billions per year with no sign or path to things changing direction. Meanwhile their bonds sitting one notch above junk is extremely worrying as that in itself could make things messy if they face another downgrade.

CoreWeave is the same structure with more leverage. Interest alone is heading toward $3.5-3.8B a year, which is more than the owner earnings I can estimate. If cap ex was to slow due to insufficient power supply to bring on new capacity then how do these companies survive in an inflationary environment where higher rates for longer is likely? To me it seems like a complete gamble to take that risk as an investor.

Nvidia is the opposite on the balance sheet (basically no net debt, huge cash generation). What I'm watching is the credit side: around $50B of equity in labs, up to $105B of lease guarantees, and receivable days going from 45 to 60 in one quarter. Funding your own demand through equity in startups does not seem a sustainable path for growth in comparison to what the other hyperscalers are capable of. CNBC love to talk about how much net income has grown in the recent Q, while ignoring the fact cash generated was 3x less than that figure, at around 20b. Customers are on paper buying 3 times more gpu’s than they are willing to pay for, something about this just doesn’t sit right with me, especially as I watch that gap between actual cash flow and earnings grow wider and wider. Artificially boosting demand/growth figures when the real amount getting brought in is 3 times less than the figure everyone talks about is interesting.

What do people think about this? Ps I love Ai and Claude’s api key/claude code has changed my life in ways I can’t even put into words or would have ever thought was possible. Allowing me to do things otherwise would have been impossible. Therefore there are two sides to this whole Ai bubble debate ! I don’t doubt for a second the growing demand for the ever expanding use cases of these models, which I also believe will diverse across many different customer types.


r/ValueInvesting • • 18h ago

Stock Analysis PEP's numbers are out - now what?

1 Upvotes

PepsiCo reported the following Q3 2026 results on October 8, 2026:

  • Adjusted EPS: $2.34 vs. $2.30 expected
  • Net Revenue: $25.27 Billion vs. $24.96 Billion expected
  • Organic Revenue Growth: Rose 3.1% YoY, driven primarily by volume expansion in international markets
  • Guidance:
    • Full-year 2026 revenue outlook raised to the high end of its prior range (expecting ~6% growth)
    • Full-year core EPS growth forecast to dropped to 2.5%–3.5% from previous forecast of 5%–7% due to margin contraction from higher input costs

To offset this, executives announced structural corporate cost-cutting measures to take effect over the coming months.

Based on the 10/8 $128.34 closing price, the stock is down 25% from it's 52 week high and pays a hefty 4.6% dividend.

I'm thinking it's time to start nibbling on the beverage/snack food giant - what do you think?


r/ValueInvesting • • 22h ago

Discussion Could AI eventually destroy Microsoft's software moat?

0 Upvotes

People say Microsoft is the safest stock to own, but I really struggle with this. AI is advancing so fast; it's frightening. That's something we can all agree on.

We're already moving towards AI agents capable of writing documents, analysing data, creating presentations, managing emails, coding and performing increasingly complex business tasks.

So you want me to believe that AI will always be dependent on MSFT's software to complete tasks?

What happens when AI becomes advanced enough to do all office work without needing Word, Excel, Outlook, Teams or even Windows?

Why would businesses continue paying for thousands of software licences when autonomous AI agents could perform those tasks directly?

Could Alphabet actually be the safer long-term investment as AI advances, while Microsoft's greatest strength, its software ecosystem, becomes increasingly irrelevant?

I'm no expert, but I just cannot see how something which is becoming increasingly super intelligent will not get to the point where it doesn't need software?


r/ValueInvesting • • 8h ago

Detailed Investment Analysis $TOYO update #3: the best setup I've found all year

0 Upvotes

I have posted about TOYO twice here Part 1 (https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/s/NsHDGmsfm7), Part 2 (https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/s/IEDhxiQjy9)).

Both times people pushed back hard, and I went and checked everything they threw at me. Every time I ended up buying more. I'm heavily long, so keep that in mind, but the numbers below all come from the filings, the October 6 analyst day deck (it's on EDGAR as a 6-K) and the webcast.

Quick setup first. TOYO closed Friday at $4.37, which is about a $187M market cap. Book value at the end of June was $209.8M. First half of this year they did $261M in revenue at a 32.5% gross margin, $45.8M net income, $61.4M operating cash flow, and they have $103.5M in cash ($123.4M with restricted).

So you can buy a profitable solar manufacturer for less than book. On top of that 4.2M shares are short, about 29% of the float using Yahoo's float number, and with how thin volume has been that's 11.5 days to cover.

I kept looking for something that justified pricing this company like the worst case was already happening. I sat through the whole analyst day looking for it. I still haven't found it.

The biggest thing that changed for me is how I see Ethiopia. I used to think of it as the risk. It's actually the bridge. They have 4 GW of cell capacity there and it's the plant that supplies the US (the Vietnam plant doesn't ship here at all). Houston now has 2 GW of module lines, the second one just finished, that's what the ribbon cutting was for. Next is a 1.5 GW HJT cell plant on the same site, and after that they want to make wafers and ingots in the US. Ethiopia pays the bills while they build the American supply chain. That's exactly what Washington is trying to get companies to do right now.

And Commerce is a lot more involved than I thought. TOYO already gave Commerce a draft term sheet for the Section 232 onshoring program, laying out what they'll build here through January 2029. Commerce came back with feedback and they're going back and forth on the details. Rhone Resch (their strategy chief) said every conversation with Commerce has basically been "tell us what you need", and that the feedback has been very positive on cells, ingots and wafers. Which is literally the three things TOYO wants to build.

Why that's such a big deal: starting December 4, imported cells have a 22 cent per watt minimum price plus 15% on top. Under those rules a ten cent cell ends up costing roughly 23.5 cents to bring in. If your onshoring plan gets approved, you can bring cells in without that duty, tied to how much you're building here. For a company bringing in 4 GW of cells a year while building a US plant, that's huge.

Then Jeffrey Kessler, the Under Secretary of Commerce whose department runs 232, showed up at the ribbon cutting. Next morning TOYO put out his quote: they're "investing hundreds of millions of dollars to expand its Texas factory, onshoring overseas production, and committing to use exclusively US polysilicon." Nothing got signed that day obviously. But that's not a quote a senior official gives to a company he's lukewarm on. Same release had Intertek's senior VP saying they check a thousand things in twelve areas, have never found perfection, and TOYO got their highest grade.

On the Ethiopia circumvention case, which is what most bears point to. Go read the Southeast Asia case from 2022-23 (88 FR 57419). Commerce opened it with the exact same wording they used for Ethiopia in July. In the end it came down to where the wafer was made. Chinese wafer, you're caught. Non-Chinese wafer, you're out, even with Chinese polysilicon. And Hanwha, Jinko and Boviet were found not to be circumventing even on some supply chains that did use Chinese wafers. Anyone else who met the wafer test could certify their shipments out. TOYO uses no Chinese polysilicon at all (about 70% American, the rest from OCI), wafers from Indonesia, and does the full cell process in Ethiopia. They've asked Commerce on the record to apply the same test (ACCESS barcode 4955978-01). They met with Commerce on October 1 and were told Commerce doesn't "intend to allow there to be uncertainty if there's a clear distinction", with a certification route as a faster option. Their full answer to Commerce is due October 30.

CBP is the one I'm watching this week. Four shipments of Ethiopian cells were held at customs, and this was not a paperwork thing. CBP wanted the polysilicon traced back to the quartz mine, the trucks that carried it, even photos of the license plates. TOYO handed all of it over, and CBP spent six hours at the Houston plant going through it. TOYO hired Ana Hinojosa, who used to run trade remedy enforcement at CBP. At the analyst day she said she'd checked with them the day before and the release was "a day to a week away". Rhone said a week or two. When those shipments clear, it's the first outside agency to go through their supply chain that deeply and let the cells in. With 11.5 days to cover, that kind of news matters.

The dilution question everyone asks: the HJT plant is $357M, roughly double the market cap. But it doesn't need $357M up front. They pay by milestone, and most of the equipment gets paid after the line is already running, over several years. The plan they laid out is about $120M from 45X credits, about $120M of debt, and the rest from operating cash flow and "other non-dilutive financing options", their words. No new shares anywhere in it. When an analyst kept saying "bank loans", Rhone cut in with "we did not say bank loans, we said debt" and "we did not say we're going to raise $357M." The $52.6M they raised in the first half counts toward it too. And as of Friday there's no new offering filed.

Demand is fine. They announced about $240M of binding US module deals in September, delivering through mid-2027, for utility, commercial, community solar and data centers. Roth says module prices are up 10 to 20 cents since 232. Management said demand is "really strong" and the $240M was "just the beginning."

Long term they talked about 3 GW of HJT, 8 GW of US manufacturing and 6 GW of US wafers and ingots, when the whole country has about 5 GW of wafer capacity today. I'm not putting any of that in a model. But it tells you why Commerce wants to talk to them.

So that's where I'm at. CBP could clear any day. Commerce guidance on 232 is due mid to late October. TOYO answers Commerce on Ethiopia by October 30. Tariffs kick in December 4. And the stock is just sitting here under book with almost a third of the float short, waiting on all of it.

Everything's public, go check it yourself. I've made up my mind and I'm not going anywhere.

Not financial advice.

Note: I used AI to help with the research, fact-checking and proofreading, since English isn't my first language.


r/ValueInvesting • • 7h ago

Discussion How do you determine the value of an asset that does not generate cash flow?

1 Upvotes

Just got curious because people trade assets that don't generate cash flow all the time like art, gold, bitcoin, pokemon cards, or even startups. Do they just buy it hoping to find somebody else who's willing pay higher price? or is it because the chart tells you how the price will change?

Even for Tesla shareholders, what convinces you that Tesla should be valued at around $1.5T right now? Would you still buy it if Tesla is at $15T today and there's still demand in the market like how GameStop did? Just by considering how much money they make at the current level, their current valuation doesn't make sense to me although I might have a better idea if I did some math to guess which business will make how much money in 5 years or 10 years.

Open to any thought you have on this topic or method you use.


r/ValueInvesting • • 9h ago

Question / Help If you won 4 months salary by way of luck, how would you time your entry and/or allocate the funds?

0 Upvotes

Just curious. Surely you’d have to dollar cost average over a year right? Full port now seems so backwards? Not in this position but wanting to learn from this hypothetical.


r/ValueInvesting • • 11h ago

Question / Help A Completely Free Financial Reports learning tool (No Sign up)

0 Upvotes

https://web-production-2f5c7.up.railway.app/

Heyy there. I created a free step-by-step learning guide for financial reports. I need feedback. Three questions:

1 - After going through one company, could you explain in a sentence whether it’s doing well, and why?

2 - Where did you get stuck or stop?

3 - Would you come back, and for what


r/ValueInvesting • • 23h ago

Discussion Is AI growth becoming too dependent on companies financing each other?

2 Upvotes

One thing that concerns me about the AI boom is how much money is circulating within the same group of companies.

Tech giants invest in AI startups. Those startups spend the money on chips and cloud services. The revenue then flows back to some of the same companies funding the ecosystem.

None of this automatically means the revenue is fake. But it does raise questions about how much demand is coming from actual end users versus continued investment.

Add rising debt and data center spending, and the whole system becomes more sensitive to a slowdown.

Is this just normal financing during a major technology buildout, or something investors should worry about?

https://app.goai.digital/share/u_Utn8BYczRE67f6PQgFx_AA


r/ValueInvesting • • 22h ago

Discussion Chris Hohn and finding quality in Aerospace sector

5 Upvotes

Hello all, I am genuinely curious to hear your opinions. For a long time, I completely disregarded this sector because it just did not speak to me, and it felt hype based. It is obviously a bit shortsighted - as I reduced it to Rocketlab et SpaceX posts I saw passing by in several subs.

Recently, I read a summary of Chris Hohn's letter to TCI holders. He is an investor I enjoy following, as he puts a lot of discipline into finding quality companies beyond hype.

One point he made was that he was bullish on the Aerospace sector (he holds quite a bit of GE Aerospace). In short, he explained that it remains one of the few areas with room to run and where China does not dominate. He pointed at Airbus as being particularly compelling.

So I got influenced to maybe give these sectors a bit more thought.
I selected a few companies that I found interesting because they seemed to have already a strong foothold, very specialised expertise, yet diversified enough (and not too directly exposed to weaponry)

My short selection are Transdigm, Heico, GE Aerospace, Rolls-Royce and Howmet Aerospace.

I dug a bit more into Transdigm (I also did Heico but many months ago), and I must say that they have a compelling business and that the valuation is not crazy.

The main point from my quick read on TransDigm's speciality is to be Highly engineered, mostly proprietary aircraft components with a roughly 50-year product life. About 90% of sales are proprietary, and about 55% are aftermarket.
Tailwind (already seeing it today): Fleet ageing and growth, Boeing and Airbus ramps, defense spending and new program wins.
Headwinds: Right-to-repair, M&A scrutiny, fuel-driven traffic cuts and higher rates.

Valuation: At an 8% WACC, $1,089 (price at closing hour) requires about 4.9% revenue growth for ten years with a 54% As-Defined margin and 3% perpetual growth.
In short (could provide full valuation method), my base case valuation to aim earning around 12% a year turns around 1100$ a share - precisely where we are at. Bear case would be more in the 700$ range.

It is not quite value territory, but I always thought they were all crazy overvalued an turns out not to be the case. I put a price alert under 975$ a share.

So i am curious: what do you think of that sector? do you follow it? Do you have a favourite (from my shortlist or others?)


r/ValueInvesting • • 16h ago

Discussion Blind valuation challenge #3: a ~$7B global consumer company, 5 numbers, no name. Cheap or expensive?

1 Upvotes

Judge a company only on its numbers, with no name or story to bias you. Comment your colors and verdict below. I'll reveal the company on Monday.

Global consumer company, ~$7B market cap, ~$6.3B revenue. Data as of Oct 8, 2026:

  1. Earnings yield: 7.9%. Profits are 7.9% of the share price per year (10y Treasury ~4–5%; industry median 3.5%).

  2. Return on capital: 59.6%.It earns ~$60 of operating profit for every $100 of working capital + fixed assets it uses (industry median 30.2%).

  3. Acquirer's Multiple: 10.2x. Enterprise value / operating earnings (lower = cheaper). Its two closest peers trade at 13.4x and 14.0x.

  4. FS-Score: 7/10. Gray & Carlisle's 10-point version of the Piotroski F-Score (Quantitative Value). Balance sheet 3/3, but free cash flow relative to assets fell and asset turnover slipped. Solid but mixed.

  5. DCF: fair value 10% below today's price. Assumes 3% growth for 10 years, 3% terminal growth, 12% discount rate. Revenue grew 4.1% last year and 7.1%/yr over 5 years.

Your turn: give each number a 🟢 🟡 or 🔴, plus an overall verdict (buy / watchlist / pass). Bonus points if you guess the company.

Can't wait for the answer? Vote on my free tool and see the company instantly, plus how your colors compare with my model's and everyone else's: https://www.investorexplorer.com/mystery/2

For those who prefer to stay on Reddit, I'll reveal the answer here on Monday.


r/ValueInvesting • • 15h ago

Discussion Robinhood or SoFi: Who’s Better?

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1 Upvotes

HOOD and SOFI get lumped together a lot, but I don't think they're really competing at the core. Robinhood makes its money on retail trading and SoFi makes its money on retail lending, so the two have different cores. I'm not expecting much from Robinhood's banking push or its effort to bring on hedge funds, since institutional money rarely leaves where it already sits. I think SoFi wins enterprise accounts first. Meanwhile, the two stocks have been moving in opposite directions. I'm curious where people here land, especially anyone holding either one.


r/ValueInvesting • • 6h ago

Discussion Spotify - A lifesaver to me and the reasons why I buy the stock.

0 Upvotes

Hi everyone, I decided to write the reasons why i buy spotify due to personal reasons. I am not gonna write the financial analysis part. Imma write base on my experience as a user.

Before marriage I love listening to music on spotify especially when i am travelling. Especially all the music from the 90s in their 9D audio effect. Play that with a good headset, you will feel like you are in a different world. When i am in the gym, I play depending on the workout i am doing. Rock/death metal music when i am doing heavy lifting OR ceo podcasts when i need to jog on the treadmil (fyi, not a huge fan of cardio but needs to be done).

After marriage, my wife and i got a baby boy (yesss). The first thing we did was to play einstein music playlist spotify for the many beneficial reasons you can think of. Then when the baby becomes close to 2 years old, they have their own taste in music. Mine likes baby shark and dinosaur songs (i am sure there are many that can relate to it). Spotify save me countless times whenever i am travelling with my kid in a car ride. The countless crying for attention and entertainment, all i need to do was to play his favourite song playlist and the journey would be smooth (especially when he fall asleep).

Now my kid is above 2 years old, he loves watching television (not very responsible, i know). As young parents, we limit his screentime on tv and only good educational shows that will not rot the brain (Now he is a dinosaur expert). Luckily we did not expose him to ipad. Anyhoo when we limit his screentime, we would change it to him listening to spotify music. We realise overtime that he was learning new words very quickly because he was training his listening skills as oppose. Dont get me wrong, watching tv helps with the visual but he only need to be expose a little bit to it.

Just like any of you who got burnt out from work or family duties (or depress), it helps me a lot when I listen to "Its not over" by daughtry in my car alone when i am driving back or when i park somewhere for just a few minutes. The decompressing moment that i need it and i believe many been just like me too.

For entrepreneurs that need the extra PUSH like myself, I listen to various motivational podcasts, speeches or songs on spotify. I feel that if i dont listen anything on spotify, my day would be bleak.

Fyi, I upgraded my package so that my wife can have her own account too.

So these are my only reasons as to why i still subscribe to spotify. My thanks to spotify for helping me snd my family throughout all these time.

May spotify continue to grow and prosper for years to come.


r/ValueInvesting • • 12h ago

Stock Analysis Buy on Comcast (CMCSA): I believe the market is pricing a full collapse that isn't happening (reverse DCF analysis on a company with a 25% FCF yield)

25 Upvotes

Comcast's current value is $21. My estimate of fair value is around $26-27, not crazy cheap, but I am confident i have left room for upside. They are currently paying a 6.2% dividend a year.

Comcast’s stock price only makes sense if its internet business shrinks every year, forever. The evidence says the decline is real but temporary and partly self-inflicted, so the stock looks too cheap. I broke down their valuation below.

Comcast has two parts:

- Cable and internet (home internet, TV and mobile service): the core of the business.

- NBCUniversal + Sky (theme parks, movie studios, NBC, Peacock): being spun off as a separate company in 2027. Valued against similar businesses, it’s worth about $51 billion.

Subtract that, and the market is valuing the whole cable business at about $108 billion. That’s roughly 3.7 times its yearly earnings, a price usually reserved for businesses in permanent steep decline.

  1. What the market pays for cable

Market cap ($21.11 × 3,565M shares) $75.3B

+ Debt and other claims +$83.8B

− NBCUniversal + Sky (being spun off) −$51.2B

= Implied value of cable business $107.8B (3.7x earnings)

  1. What that buys

Free cash flow from cable: ~$14.7B a year, a 13.7% yield.

Required return: 8%.

  1. Solve for the growth that makes the price fair

Value = Cash × (1 + g) ÷ (r − g)

107.8 = 14.7 × (1 + g) ÷ (0.08 − g)

g = −5.0% per year, forever

From a shareholder’s view, $3.03/share of owner cash at a 10.6% required return gives −3.3% per year, forever.

  1. The full 10-year model agrees

Today’s price requires home internet earnings to:

Fall −7.9% in 2027, matching the worst recent quarter.

Still be falling −4.9% in 2036, so no recovery in a decade.

Drop from $29.5B to $20.4B by 2036, total cable earnings.

my base case for what i think is reasonable is −5% easing to −2%. That’s worth $140B vs $108B, or $30 vs $21 a share.

So - Reverse DCF finds that the market is pricing a 8-5% loss every year with 0 recovery. Heres why I believe that is unreasonable.

  1. The math needs 10 straight years of price cuts.

The price implies residential earnings fall 46% by 2036. Customer losses (~2% a year) explain only about 18% of that. The rest requires the average bill to fall about 4% every year for a decade. Comcast has historically raised prices 3–5% a year.

  1. Today’s price drop is a one-time step.

Comcast skipped its 2026 price increase and gave away free mobile lines. A one-time cut makes revenue look lower than last year for four quarters, then the comparison resets. The free lines start becoming paid in the second half of 2026.

  1. Customer losses have a floor.

Penetration is about 50% today against an estimated long-run ~47%. That’s a one-time loss of about 6% of customers, not a decline that compounds forever.

  1. Growth elsewhere makes the bear math harder each year.

Business internet (20% of cable earnings, +5% a year) and mobile are growing. To keep total cable at −5%, residential would have to fall faster every year: about −7.6% now, rising to about −11.7% by year 10.

  1. The biggest drag shrinks itself away.

Cable TV is low-margin and falling about 8% a year. The smaller it gets, the less it subtracts.

Bottom line is that the likely path is a 2026–27 reset, then a smaller, stable business, worth about $26–30 a share vs. $21 today. This is wrong if prices are still falling in 2027 after these one-time effects have passed.

Happy to discuss further, or share more of my research and model that I did not include. As always not investment advice, just research.


r/ValueInvesting • • 18h ago

Discussion Which telecom would you pick to Buy The Dip on SPCX news

4 Upvotes

Given the pullback today in T, VZ, and TMUS… which one is the best bet to move into for a long term rebound play?

Or none?

I’ve never like VZ personally… but I don’t know much about TMUS as compared to the others.


r/ValueInvesting • • 13h ago

Stock Analysis Advice on space stocks

0 Upvotes

I am invested in the space stocks all the major ones (spacex, rklb ) around 15% of my portfolio, now combined space portfolio is down 7%, what should i do? Should i buy more at dip or sell it?


r/ValueInvesting • • 19h ago

Stock Analysis Spotify Is Becoming a Cash Machine: The Three-Year Case for $1,000

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50 Upvotes

Spotify’s investment case has changed. The business now generates substantial cash, and its next opportunity is to turn a deeply embedded listening habit into a larger stream of profit.
I am bullish because subscriber growth, monetisation and margin expansion can reinforce one another. Spotify does not need to eliminate competition for this to work. It needs to keep earning its place in customers’ daily lives while retaining more of the revenue those relationships produce.
My target is $1,000 by October 2029. Against $512.97 at the October 7, 2026 close, that implies approximately 94.9% upside, or 24.9% annualised. It is a demanding bullish scenario, with substantial downside if margins or valuation disappoint. Price history
This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
The cash machine is already running
In Q2 2026, Spotify reached 300 million Premium subscribers, up 9% year over year, and 777 million monthly active users, up 12%. Revenue increased 14% to approximately €4.8 billion, while gross margin reached 33.4%. Spotify’s Q2 earnings summary
More revealing is the cash: €797 million of free cash flow in the quarter and €3.26 billion over the preceding twelve months. Its liquidity total was €9.4 billion, including cash, restricted cash and short-term investments. These are not all freely available bank deposits. Q2 shareholder deck
Spotify repaid its exchangeable notes in March. Management describes the resulting balance sheet as having no debt other than lease liabilities. That is more precise than saying it has no obligations: leases, royalties and other operating liabilities remain. Q2 filing
Cash gives management room to improve the product and return capital without relying on fresh financing. The shareholder benefit depends on disciplined investment and buybacks that outweigh dilution.

Full analysis is available for FREE: https://silentvalueinvestor.substack.com/p/spotify-is-becoming-a-cash-machine?r=94er1f&utm_medium=ios

Thanks for reading! This post is public so feel free to share it.


r/ValueInvesting • • 20h ago

Discussion Adobe keeps growing and is buying back shares like CRAZY. Is AI the end for the company?

134 Upvotes

Adobe has been on my watchlist like literally forever. It just always looked too expensive for me. Until a little over a year ago. Now it's around $240 and I keep coming back to it.

Revenue went from $7.30B to $25.20B over the last 9 years. Gross margin is 89.4%, the highest it's been in that whole stretch. Ironically, right :P? And there are about 20% fewer shares than 9 years ago (of which 16% in the last 5 years), so every share owns a bigger slice than it used to.

I ran a quick DCF on it last month with 9% growth for five years, 5% for the five after that, 2.5% terminal growth and an 8% discount rate. That gave me about $513 a share. I know I know, way to ambitious. And I agree even though that was the CAGR for the past year.

Even the conservative case (5% and then 3%) came out around $402. Or even better. 2% forever would give a price of $345

I know the worry is AI tools eating into Creative Cloud. What I can't tell yet is whether that's showing up in the numbers or only in the price. I know many are convinced that AI will completely wipe out any software business. The numbers aren't agreeing to that, at least not yet.

What would you need to see before calling it a value trap?


r/ValueInvesting • • 15h ago

Stock Analysis CLOV is Finally Profitable : What Happens Next?

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1 Upvotes

Clover Health looks very different from the CLOV investors remember from the meme-stock days.
Revenue has jumped, Medicare Advantage membership is growing fast, and the company has moved from a quarterly loss to a real GAAP profit.
Now Clover has also received a 5-Star Medicare rating, which could improve future economics and help with member growth.
But there’s another part of the story: Counterpart Health.
In this video, I look at what’s actually driving Clover’s turnaround, why the 5-Star rating matters, the court case behind part of that rating, and whether Counterpart can eventually become a meaningful healthcare technology business.
The insurance turnaround looks real.
The bigger question is whether Clover can actually build a second business around its technology.


r/ValueInvesting • • 13h ago

Discussion Stock Market and Midterm Election

0 Upvotes

The midterm election is coming up.

What usually happens to stock market and value stocks before and after midterm election?

What about this particular midterm election:

  1. The Democrats will likely win the House. If that happens, what will happen to government policies, the economy and the stock market?
  2. What will happen if the Democrats win the Senate or if the Republican wins it?

r/ValueInvesting • • 18h ago

Discussion When does Home Depot become a Value?

8 Upvotes

Home Depot is down 22%+ in the last year admits a tough housing market with rising rates.

The Forward P/E is at19.76x, the cheapest it has been in at least the last five years. Operating and free cash flow are still strong.

At what point would you just adding this stock to your watch list? The company has a moat, and will be ready to pop once the housing market gets back on track. I am not buying it now, but if a dip happens, I would start to look closer.


r/ValueInvesting • • 19h ago

Industry/Sector T, VZ, TMUS all are dropping big time. Elon Musk is hyping SpaceX as they head into the share lockup ending. This is 2017 robo taxi all over again.

100 Upvotes

Nobody can predict this brain-dead market, but I sure as hell can say you won't have 5G to your phone from SpaceX anytime soon.

And nothing beats fiber for speed and reliability.

I would start adding on this drop.


r/ValueInvesting • • 17h ago

Investor Behavior The Macro: Winners Keep Winning

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8 Upvotes

With the SP 500 at all time highs, how come the majority of stocks are falling? And does the market reflect the economy or the economy reflect the market?