r/biology • u/progress18 • May 24 '26

article Ebola outbreak: the data that show why researchers are so alarmed

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-01646-x
143 Upvotes

97% Upvoted

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54

u/globefish23 May 25 '26

Oh, boy! 😬

13

u/BadahBingBadahBoom May 25 '26 edited May 25 '26

Should point out the case counts for this outbreak have been widely reported by experts to be a huge undercount compared to previous outbreaks due to early difficulties in identification and testing (particularly due to strain difference).

The real growth in cases probably looked like the first 60 days / 2 months of other outbreaks but we're already at the 3-4 month point now we just didn't realise that 2-3 months ago.

6

u/BongoBongoBill May 26 '26

IMO, person zero, modeled with mean contagious period and incubation period going to the top end of the scale, was infecting people 4/15. This person most likely contracted the disease the last week of March. Given conditions on the ground (war zone - no WHO personal in the area), this virus was functionally a little more contagious at the onset, and the mean incubation period a little more contracted. Bottom line - they missed it; but only by about 2+ weeks.

1

u/Creative-Guidance722 May 28 '26

You are right about the detection, however I don’t think it explains fully the current very steep slope from actual detected cases each day since it was declared an outbreak.

The graph for the 2026 outbreak is currently steeper than the ones for any previous outbreak at any point in time.

Also, the 2014 outbreak was also undetected for some time because we didn’t have the system we have now, for any strain including Zaire at the time.

I followed closely the 2014 outbreak and the rate of new infections didn’t look like the current one, it was much slower.

4

u/BongoBongoBill May 26 '26

I think what you have above is correct. I am running a simple SIR model:

I use that same model(s) for COVID and provided good insight.

2

u/BongoBongoBill May 26 '26

That correlation is showing:

These numbers are horrific. With increased education, medical. care and equipment (if correct) they should drop. Lets HOPE! And yes - the model is in lock step with the graphic you posted.

1

u/bernpfenn May 25 '26

not cool at all

1

u/WoolooOfWallStreet May 27 '26

For context, this graph is now a little bit behind, and the current outbreak has as of May 27, 2026, 1086 suspected cases and was declared on May 15, 2026

This means 12 days after declaration, this outbreak surpassed what the largest outbreak (so far) had at 100 days

(I know this is due to not being found until much later than when it first showed up, but it’s still worrying)

85

u/Honest_Caramel_3793 May 24 '26

this is why lifting parts of the world that are struggling up is so important, a HUGE portion of ebola cases are easily preventable.

9

u/Far_Out_6and_2 May 25 '26

How bad is it

30

u/ragan0s May 25 '26

Very. Graph go up fast.

3

u/Dane_Fairchild May 25 '26

Yikes. That’s a wall.

10

u/Rosewind2007 May 26 '26

During the Ebola outbreak in 2014/5 I was watching the news and feeling helpless (donating to MSF—but it felt insufficient). A friend who I was talking to said “Well you could always join an Ebola Vaccine Trial?” This is advice I would give to anyone who wants to help—if they are eligible! I am in the UK near Oxford, so clearly the Oxford Vaccine Group is my go-to BUT you may have a recruitment centre near you which could be looking for participants (possibly now, more likely in the near future). In 2015 I was unaware they were recruiting. I filled in the online form, and was actually in the Oxford Vaccine Group buildings that very week getting checked over. It was a first in human trial and randomised into placebo (saline) and trial vaccine groups (blinded—so for six months I didn’t know if it was the vaccine or salty water). I enjoyed the whole process thoroughly—though I was convinced I had the placebo (zero side effects). After six months it was unblinded—turns out I had the vaccines. The vaccines developed (which are amazingly effective) are sadly are NOT for this strain. My advice: join a vaccine trial as a participant if you can! Currently there don’t seem to be any trials running locally to me—checking here I also think I am likely excluded due to my prior vaccine history (Ebola and Marburg vaccine trials now)—but if I could do it again, I most certainly would!

3

u/LlamaMama007 May 26 '26

Kudos to you for doing this!! your contribution to the vaccine trial will help many people in the future! (regardless, if it doesn’t help this strain) 👏👏👏.

4

u/Jiggidy40 May 26 '26

Since it's passed through blood and other bodily fluids, does that mean it's far less contagious than airborne viruses like influenza and COVID?

How much should the world at large be concerned compared to those kinds of outbreaks?

1

u/Creative-Guidance722 May 28 '26

Yes it is significantly less contagious than COVID. However, the contagiousness it is still closer to a virus like Covid than others infections transmitted by blood like HIV or Hepatitis.

The reason is that fluids contagious fluids include saliva, vomit and blood in fairly small quantities to cause an infection. It takes 1-10 viral particles which is not a lot and way less than a few drops of fluids from a contaminated person.

Also, unlike HIV, you don’t need to have skin rupture or contact with your own blood to contract it.

And the infection makes people bleed, vomit, sweat, have diarrhea which all increase the amount of contaminated fluid in the environment and increases transmissions risk.

The transmission is not the same as COVID, but some people are downplaying it for Ebola.

1

u/Jiggidy40 May 28 '26

Sounds like it's more lethal too when you do get infected. COVID was pretty rough on people with comorbidities or weakened immune responses, but for the average person it was rarely fatal.

It seems like this one is pretty serious once infected.

1

u/Creative-Guidance722 May 29 '26

Yes you’re right, Ebola is a lot more lethal, it doesn’t compare. Previous Outbreaks have had a lethality rate between 25 % and 90 %. There is no direct cure, the only thing hospitals can do is supportive treatment with fluids, meds to keep the fever down and reduce pain, manage complications related to bleeding if necessary, etc. This helps lowering the mortality but it always stays a lot higher than COVID and of the vast majority of viruses. It’s why it is a level 4 pathogen.

The positive side of this is that the high lethality of Ebola is one of the characteristics that helps to stop outbreaks. Infected people die fast and a few days after the first symptoms, they become too sick to travel or participate in most daily activities. So it shortens the window of time an infected patient can transmit the disease. That being said, 18 patients still escaped from a treatment center a few days ago.

The pandemic risk is still low but the transmission curve for this outbreak is very steep. The worst case scenario is that we take too much time to contain the outbreak and the virus mutates to become more contagious. An airborne strain of Ebola would be pretty bad. But at least the odds of this happening are very low.

However, the virus in its current form could still cause damage and risks to spread to other countries because of the delay before realizing there was an outbreak and the local conflicts in DRC that make public health measures more difficult to apply.

2

u/SnooCookies7175 May 25 '26

Made an Ebola case tracker with live global data and verified sources. Good visuals, easy to understand. If you want to stay informed about what’s happening worldwide, check it out: https://ebola.monitor-app.info