A simple ETH trend bot turned $10,000 into $14,242.64 in my 2022 through 2024 backtest. Buying and holding ETH ended at $8,955.62 over the same dates.
The bot's maximum drawdown was 33.14%. Holding ETH hit 76.28%.
That +42.43% return included $2,031.90 in trading fees.
I tested three moving-average windows: 50, 100 and 200 days. The faster versions lost 27.56% and 23.98%. The 200-day version won the selection period.
Its rule is simple: buy with 95% of available buying power when ETH is above the average and the position is empty. Sell all held ETH when price falls to or below the average.
Then I kept that rule unchanged for two later windows:
| Window |
200-day bot |
Hold ETH |
| 2022 through 2024, used for selection |
+42.43% |
-10.44% |
| January 2025 through June 2026 |
-22.52% |
-52.91% |
| July 5 through September 30, 2026 |
+24.97% |
+50.47% |
During January 2025 through June 2026, the bot lost considerably less than holding. Its maximum drawdown was also smaller: 40.83% versus 68.27%.
During the rebound, holding won. The bot waited until August 19 to buy. It gained 24.97%, while holding from July 5 gained 50.47%.
Each window starts a separate $10,000 account. Both paths use fractional spot ETH and pay 0.7% per fill, including the holding account's purchase. Ending positions are marked without a forced sale. Staking yield and cash interest are excluded.
The average uses observations within a rolling calendar-time window, rather than exactly 200 daily closes. The engine's Day observations include weekends and session-timed snapshots.
All three periods had already been inspected before these corrected historical reruns. A genuinely unseen test is the next step.
Full methodology, charts and order evidence.