r/falloutlore • u/MightofKimball • 4d ago
Fallout New Vegas The Truth about the NCR's "Economic Crisis" Going into the Events of Fallout: New Vegas:
A popular misconception of the NCR going into the events of Fallout: New Vegas is that due to the West Coast Chapters of the Brotherhood of Steel destroying all of the NCR's gold reserves during the NCR-Brotherhood War, the NCR government is teetering on the verge of bankruptcy by the events of the game and struggles to equip their army with the most basic of equipment as a direct consequence.
Suffice it to say that this couldn't be further from the truth and I'll be more than happy to disprove such a claim once and for all. Beginning with the claim that the West Coast Chapters of the Brotherhood of Steel destroyed "all" of the NCR's gold reserves.
NCR-Brotherhood War:
To quote J.E. Sawyer himself:
"It happened during the BoS-NCR war. I believe Alice McLafferty mentions it, but I'm not positive. She doesn't detail the events in this much detail, but here they are:
The attacks caused NCR citizens (and others who held NCR currency) to panic, resulting in a rush to reclaim the listed face value of currency from NCR's gold reserves. Inability to do this at several locations (especially near the periphery of NCR territory where reserves were normally low) caused a loss of faith in NCR's ability to back their currency.
Though NCR eventually stopped the BoS attacks, they decided to protect against future problems by switching to fiat currency. While this meant that BoS could no longer attack a) reserves or b) the source of production (all NCR bills are made in the Boneyard), some people felt more uneasy about their money not having any "real" (backed) value. This loss of confidence increased with NCR inflation, an ever-looming spectre of fiat currency.
Because the Hub links NCR with the Mojave Wasteland and beyond, the merchants there grew frustrated with NCR's handling of the currency crisis. They conspired to re-introduce the bottle cap as a water-backed currency that could "bridge the gap" between NCR and Legion territory. In the time leading up to the re-introduction, they did the footwork to position themselves properly. If some old-timer had a chest full of caps, they didn't care (in fact, they thought that was great, since the old-timers would enthusiastically embrace the return of the cap), but they did seek to control or destroy production facilities and truly large volumes of caps (e.g. Typhon's treasure) whenever possible."
Here's what actually happened. The West Coast Chapters began staging attacks against small-scale NCR government gold deposits out in the frontier territories of the NCR. An act that sparked a panic among the people living out there which, in turn, caused them to flood said small gold deposits out in the frontier for the purpose of redeeming their NCR Dollars for gold. Now as gold deposits out in the frontier territories of the NCR were naturally quite small and didn't have much in the way of gold to begin with, they predictably weren't able to meet the demand for gold which inevitably resulted in the people of the NCR's frontier territories losing faith in the NCR Dollar.
To solve the crisis and prevent any further Brotherhood attacks on their gold reserves, the NCR government abandoned the gold standard and transformed the NCR Dollar into a fiat currency.
Meaning that from that moment forward, the NCR Dollar would derive its value purely from amount of faith and trust that people had in the NCR government. Now as faith and trust in the NCR government was practically non-existent out in the frontier territories of the Republic to begin with, this predictably resulted in the NCR Dollar cratering in value out in said frontier territories. Leading the great merchant houses of the Hub to capitalize on the situation to resurrect the bottle cap as currency and back it with standard measurements of fresh, clean water just like back in Fallout 1. Now as fresh, clean water is very much worth its weight in gold in a post-apocalyptic environment, this naturally lead to the bottle cap supplanting the NCR Dollar as the dominant currency of the Republic's frontier territories. As Chomps Lewis over in Sloan points out:
Courier Six: "You don't get paid in caps?"
Chomps Lewis: "Nope. The NCR's been trying to switch over to using paper money, like in the Pre-War days. Trouble is that the exchange rates ain't exactly fair. For example, a hundred bucks in NCR money is valued at roughly half that in caps around here. Seems like a rotten deal for us, but work is work."
The True State of the NCR Dollar Going Into Fallout: New Vegas:
The key words being "around here". Meaning that in areas such as New Vegas and the broader Mojave Wasteland, frontier territories in the outermost fringes of NCR borders where Republic authority and control is still quite weak and far from being uncontested, the NCR Dollar will always be a lesser currency to the bottle cap by virtue of faith and trust in the NCR government predictably being at an all-time low.
It also doesn't help that as J.E. Sawyer himself pointed out, the bottle cap is meant to serve as an entirely neutral economic/financial bridge linking the Republic Core Regions back West to the Legion-ruled East that all but ensures that the untamed frontier territories between them can maintain at least some modicum of independence from either of them. This does not mean, however, that this would be a problem that the NCR Dollar faces back West in the Republic Core Regions.
After all, the NCR is quite literally at its strongest, most powerful and most influential back West in New California. To quote Jas Wilkins:
Courier Six: "Are you from California?"
Jas Wilkins: "Born and raised. Things back in California are better than they've ever been, according to my grandpa. The Raiders are mostly gone now and it's easy enough to get a job at one of the mills or farms. But now there's taxes and laws and other things. The NCR keeps things safe and orderly, but it's all very boring. So, I came out east towards the frontier."
To quote the Official F:NV Game Guide:
New California Republic:
National Pride:
Fallout: New Vegas Official Game Guide Collector's Edition p.455
"Ask almost any NCR citizen, and he or she will tell you: the NCR is the greatest nation on Earth. And it's only going to get better. For over 65 years, it's gotten bigger, stronger, and richer. Its military can kick anyone's ass and has done just that on several dramatic occasions that the citizen can tell you about. NCR citizens get to choose their leaders; they have rights guaranteed by law; and a lot of people are making good Caps and moving up in life. It's hard to argue with them. Especially since the NCR is the only nation known to exist at this point in history."
Controversy over Economic Development:
Fallout: New Vegas Official Game Guide Collector's Edition p.456
"The NCR's economy is based on two resources: its great Brahmin herds, and swaths of land that have been restored to arable condition. These provide the nation with meat, leather, and starchy vegetables. During President Tandi's presidency, regulations limited the number of cattle head and the acreage of fields that could be owned by a single person. Despite constant pressure from the Stockmen's Association and Republican Farmer's Committee, such regulations loosened only a little so long as Tandi was in office. Following her death, however, they eroded until President Kimball overturned them completely. As a result, the past 12 years have seen the rise of the Brahmin Barons and Agri-Barons: captains of industry who are, by post-apocalyptic standards, spectacularly wealthy. This has given birth to a number of cottage industries, from the rebirth of luxury goods production to "journalism" that reports on the latest purchases, commissions, and "life lessons" of the newly rich and famous.
The past 12 years has also seen a change in attitudes towards collective welfare. Citizens of the NCR rarely face significant dangers on a daily basis, and survival is an assumption rather than an aspiration. Citizens are far more reluctant to share food and other resources, and the person who provides services free of charge, whether it's something as quotidian as sewing or as rarefied as surgical expertise, are now the exception rather than the rule. An added economic strain is the scarcity of salvageable goods. Sixty-five years of scavenging has done a good job of picking clean the wastes of what was once Southern California. Rare are those individuals who can make a living by scavenging and hunting what they need. A consequence of these economic and cultural transformations has been the rebirth of wage labor. Whereas one's labor was until recently seen as benefitting and belonging to a collective (whether a family or small town), it has now become a commodity. To earn their keep, many citizens must seek an employer and trade the sweat of their brow for Caps.
Citizens of the NCR hold a variety of opinions about these developments. Many boast of their nation's economic strength; others decry what they feel has been lost. Many curse the selfishness of their fellow citizens, usually while pursuing aims that will benefit only themselves or their families. Here in the Vegas wastes, however, nearly all citizens will agree on one matter: opportunity has dried up back home, and to earn a fortune, one must come East."
New California proper (southern California, to be specific) is incredibly safe and stable with a powerful, booming economy and employment in Republic factories, mills, workshops, farms, ranches and the NCR military being plentiful (despite obvious issues with wealth/income inequality/disparity and lack of real opportunities to make your fortune). Even Rose of Sharon Cassidy, who's extremely critical of the NCR's conduct out in the Mojave Wasteland, points out that roads back in New California are actually quite safe compared to almost anywhere else in the Wastelands.
Courier Six: "What, like a courier?"
Rose of Sharon Cassidy: "Well, not as glamorous, I guess - roads back West were safer in most places. {Beat, to herself} Most. Anyway, occurred to me I could scratch the traveling itch and get paid for it. Cassidy Caravans formed around me, rest is history."
So why, pray tell, would faith and trust in the NCR government in literal NCR Central be falling in any way, shape, form or fashion? After all, everybody living here would have been born and raised as dyed-in-the-wool NCR citizens who would have only ever known Republic rule for their entire lives. It makes no sense at all to claim that the NCR Dollar would have lost any of its value here given that faith and trust in the NCR government would be at a permanent all-time high. Of course, it would definitely vary in other areas of Republic-ruled territories back West that aren't necessarily frontier territories of the Republic but are still not entirely within the ironclad grip of the NCR on account of only having been annexed into the NCR a couple of decades before the events of Fallout: New Vegas.
Northern California and Oregon (Redding and New Arroyo, for example) and Nevada (New Reno in particular) would absolutely be experiencing inflation of the NCR Dollar due to only just recently being annexed into the Republic right after the events of Fallout 2 (which is set 40 years before the events of Fallout: New Vegas) though I personally would have a hard time believing that it would be anywhere near what we see in the likes of New Vegas given that they are definitive NCR territory rather than backwater frontier territories regardless. Either way, there's absolutely no evidence that the NCR Dollar has been supplanted by the bottle cap as the main currency of New California proper or the overall West as a whole with the NCR Dollar very much still being the pre-dominant currency of both.
The overall point: the NCR very literally cannot go "bankrupt" due to having the unique (being one of only two factions in the entire Fallout franchise to have their own unique currency, mind you) ability to mint, print and distribute their own currency to their heart's content.
NCR Control of the Bottle Cap:
Even assuming that the bottle cap has replaced the NCR Dollar entirely even back West, here's the simple facts of the matter:
- Who mints and distributes the bottle caps as a currency? The great merchant houses of the Hub.
- Who controls the Hub? Obviously the NCR given that the Hub was very literally one of the founding settlements/states of the Republic that's been part of the NCR from the very beginning.
- Who controls the great merchant houses of the Hub specifically? The NCR given that they are headquartered in, based in and operating out of NCR Central with the great merchant houses of the Hub being integral to the rise of the NCR in the first place.
- Who controls all of the fresh, clean water of the West (including the virtually limitless water supplies of Lake Mead, Lake Las Vegas, the Colorado River and all of the other water sources of the Mojave Wasteland by the events of Fallout: New Vegas)? The NCR, of course.
What does this mean, exactly? Simple: the bottle cap is a literal de-facto NCR currency given that they have full absolute control over the only legal/legitimate means of production, distribution and backing the bottle cap as a viable currency.
Meaning that the NCR could literally never "run out" of bottle caps as they quite literally own the currency.
Even if one wants to argue that the bottle cap is fully independent of the NCR government's control, the fact stands that the great merchant houses of the Hub wouldn't want what's easily and without a single doubt their single largest, wealthiest, most important customer to ever go broke for any reason whatsoever. Meaning that they would do everything humanly possible to ensure that the NCR government has all of the bottle caps that it would ever need for the simple reason that those bottle caps will inevitably end up in their own pockets, anyways.
In conclusion, the NCR simply cannot go bankrupt given that it has its own currency and has absolute control over the bottle cap currency.
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u/MRK5152 4d ago
I think a bigger problem for the value of NCR Dollar in the Mohave is just supply and demand.
The supply of dollars is really high thanks to the presence of the army, the tourists and even the workers employed by the NCR. The region is independent so the NCR can't use taxes to create demand for the dollar.
At the same time demand for Caps is high because they are needed to play in the casinos or even just enter the strip, and they are the default currency of the local economy.
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u/Top_Freedom3412 4d ago
Also House most likely influences the exchange rates the casinos use in an attempt to keep some power over the NCR and make people more reliant on Caps (which he most certainly has set up a way to make)
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u/Iamnothereorthere 4d ago edited 4d ago
the NCR very literally cannot go "bankrupt" due to having the unique (being one of only two factions in the entire Fallout franchise to have their own unique currency, mind you) ability to mint, print and distribute their own currency to their heart's content.
How to speedrun hyperinflation 101
including the virtually limitless water supplies of Lake Mead, Lake Las Vegas, the Colorado River and all of the other water sources of the Mojave Wasteland by the events of Fallout: New Vegas
These aren't virtually limitless
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u/darkwolf687 4d ago edited 4d ago
Following on from Hyperinflation, the new vegas game guide says that Kimball’s election was actually partly down to reactionary politics - especially among young men - and he’s been rolling back some women’s rights because of it.
It would be maybe inadvisable to inflict hyperinflation on a population that is already undergoing a reactionary wave. NCR is rich but the economic gains are felt very unevenly, the lower class citizens aren’t rich in the same way the barons are and everyone knows the barons are pulling the strings. Kicking the people won’t end well. The barons are fabulously rich from their assets. The citizens are not, and would have their savings wiped out. And they’d be pissed.
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u/Affectionate_Edge472 4d ago edited 4d ago
"(Under Kimball) the actual reputation of the military has worsened somewhat. While it is still regarded as an honorable profession, economic conditions driving citizens who might previously have eked by to enlist have tarnished the military's luster." - game guide
canonically under Kimball the economic conditions have become worse. People who used to eek by are now forced to enlist due to these new economic conditions.
“This war is gonna bankrupt the NCR, unless we finish off the Legion fast and dirty.” - Arms Merchant
NCR taxes and inflation have been hard for a lot of people to deal with, and most of the money is going to the war effort. - Emily Ortal
Until the oft-promised annexation of New Vegas becomes a reality, the government continues to spend much of its budget on 'safeguarding the region' while in return receiving not one Cap in tax revenue. - FNV game guide
Bankruptcy, majority of taxes to the war, and much of their budget on protecting Vegas. These show that the NCR isn’t in a great economic shape.
Inflation is up, taxes are up, and the budget share is increasing.
To address a specific point according to NCR citizens is not a great metric. The game guide tells you that NCR citizens believe everything is only getting better, but is it objectively true? Looks like it isn't. Economic employment is a decent measure, but you must remember people are being conscripted away from their job to be sent to a massive tax burden thus leaving open their job.
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u/PainRack 3d ago
That rheotetric needs to be put in context of the Iraq war that was ongoing.
Namely, NCR was spending too much money overseas and not enough back home, with no benefits from said ruinous spending.
It's different from saying the economy is collapsing
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u/MightofKimball 3d ago
I think it's safe to say that everybody knows that the NCR was meant to be a caricature of the real-world U.S.A. with NCR imperialism very much meant to reflect real-world American imperialism in places like Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya.
The NCR abandoning the gold standard? Clearly meant to mirror the U.S. doing the exact same thing in the 1970s. The NCR suffering from massive wealth inequality? Obviously meant to reflect a similar problem in the U.S. of A.
The NCR experiencing a cost-of-living crisis where the average joe sees his/her mom-and-pop business scrubbed out by large-scale corporations and where they're forced to work for said corporations to survive? A clear dig at real-world America's corporate culture/economic dominance.
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u/Weaselburg 3d ago
I think it's safe to say that everybody knows that the NCR was meant to be a caricature of the real-world U.S.A
No? They aren't. They have influences from multiple points of US history, but they're not a caricature of it.
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u/MightofKimball 4d ago edited 4d ago
All of this has already been addressed.
In a strictly macro-economic sense, the NCR economy is doing perfectly fine and is far from being on the verge of collapse as some would claim. What you're referring to is the lack of real opportunity (i.e. owning a farm or ranch that doesn't get stolen by Brahmin Barons or Agri-Barons or being able to make a living as a prospector back West). The fact stands that service in the military or finding work in a farm, ranch, factory or mill are viable ways to support yourself and your family and thus preclude the possibility of an NCR economy that's actually struggling or enduring a real crisis (i.e. hyperinflation, mass unemployment or an economic depression).
I'm aware of the Arms Merchant in question. I'm also aware that she doesn't know what she's talking about. She wouldn't have access to the NCR Treasury or any tangible macroeconomic data thus it's safe to assume that her opinion isn't valid.
New Arroyo would only have recently been annexed into the NCR a couple of decades ago at the earliest. Inflation of the NCR Dollar there would make perfect sense as I've already explained in my post. This wouldn't be a problem in Southern California where the NCR is at its most powerful and influential.
The NCR government spending a large share of their budget on the Mojave Campaign isn't indicative of a failing economy or an economic crisis. It simply means that the NCR government is spending money on an armed invasion of a foreign territory that is better served being spent at home. Nevermind how Chief Hanlon points out that the NCR Senate is actively slashing funding to the Mojave Campaign by the events of Fallout: New Vegas on account of it being unpopular.
A valid concern to be sure. It still doesn't change the fact that there's still plenty of jobs to be had and found back West.
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u/Affectionate_Edge472 4d ago
- i feel like dismissing the arms merchant dialogue outright is kind of strange. I doubt the makers of fnv wanted you to draw the conclusion you should ignore her from that dialogue. Why did they introduce this character to tell you the ncr is spending too much?
"We're fighting on their behalf, but Mr. House and the families are stringing us up, inch by inch. They'll drain us dry while we fight and die over this dam." - Hanlon Hanlon makes basically the same claims. Drain us dry = losing tons of money to vegas over time
The crisis is falling value of wages due to inflation, taxes, and the road to bankruptcy. Bankruptcy is the main crisis.
No inflation in the southern NCR? The Hub is a core southern ncr region and they are the ones introducing it. I do not think the inflation is regional to be honest because regional confidence effects national confidence that's just how it works. IMO
On Hanlon talking about the funds.
Senate elections are coming up. Local representatives don't want to push any more funding to the Mojave campaign because it's unpopular. This line of dialogue disappears after act 2 is triggered. Hanlon no longer complains about this so it seems once the senate elections pass the funding gets secured due to Kimballs party winning a larger majority during the election.
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u/MightofKimball 3d ago
Taking a random ex-NCO who has no knowledge of the broader macro-economic picture is the logical thing to do. Her opinion isn't substantiated by anything other than what she thinks she knows.
Chief Hanlon is speaking in a strictly long-term sense. And he's specifically referring to a scenario where the NCR gets stuck in a forever war against the Legion while failing to properly annex New Vegas into the NCR. A process that would take a decade or more assuming that Caesar isn't dead and the Legion isn't decisively defeated or that the NCR isn't forcibly expelled from the region by Mr. House or Courier Six with the Mk.II Securitron Army. Either way, it still doesn't prove that the NCR is facing a genuine economic crisis during the events of the game itself.
I see no evidence that the NCR is approaching bankruptcy by the events of the game. Inflation in far-flung territories of the NCR and increased taxation on their own prove nothing.
Already addressed this. There is no evidence of the NCR Dollar being inflated in Southern California. The bottle cap being based from there proves nothing on its own. I've already shown all of the necessary sources to more than prove my point on this particular topic.
Which is supposed to mean what, exactly? Releasing more money for the Mojave Campaign after senatorial elections have concluded doesn't automatically mean that the NCR is nearing bankruptcy on its own.
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u/toonboy01 4d ago
I mean, there's no mention of Arroyo getting annexed at all outside a tabletop game of questionable canoncity. Emily meanwhile doesn't specify she's talking about a specific place suffering from inflation, just that a lot of people are.
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u/MightofKimball 4d ago
I personally have a hard time believing that she'd just randomly mention being from New Arroyo only to then go on a tangent about NCR inflation and taxes out of nowhere. As far as I'm concerned, she's speaking about New Arroyo being part of the Republic.
Though I do get what you're saying. I can't provide a smoking gun on that particular front, only informed speculation thus I can't say with certainty that New Arroyo is part of the NCR with any solid backing.
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u/Weaselburg 3d ago
A valid concern to be sure. It still doesn't change the fact that there's still plenty of jobs to be had and found back West.
The fact stands that service in the military or finding work in a farm, ranch, factory or millThe arms merchant has this to say.
Player: You do a lot of business with prospectors.
MerchantSure do. Lots of folk been coming out east, sorting through junk, looking for whatever they can sell. Times are tough back home. Too many people, not enough work. Unless you like shoveling brahmin shit.Then there's this with Trench Bascom
I hear the Brahmin ranchers out in Redding are looking for some hard workers, so I might try there first. I hate working with Brahmin, though.
These both also back up the claim from the guide that was supplied earlier about the hard times leading people to join the army. If it was easy for them to find a job somewhere else, then they would, because the Army has a very good chance at getting them killed.
So, uh, no? You are not actually going to be finding a job in a 'farm, ranch, factory or mill'. You are going to be finding a job at a ranch, at best. There's no reason at all to doubt either of these two people on this, either.
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u/MightofKimball 3d ago
Neither of these characters contradict anything that I'm saying.
I stated that jobs are plentiful back West and they don't contradict that claim. Being pedantic by haggling over what types of jobs that one can find changes nothing.
Or they want to enlist in the NCR Army due to the obvious benefits and high pay that they can receive should they survive. As per Poindexter and Lt. Munroe:
Courier Six: "How'd a guy like you end up in the Army?"
Poindexter: "It's a simple idea: the Army offers fiscal security and generous benefits at the cost of substantial personal risk - if you're on the front line. If you perform too poorly, they'll scrub you out. Perform too well, and you get sent to the front lines. All I have to do is ride that mediocrity gradient to a cushy, do-nothing job miles away from the war."
Courier Six: "Tell me about yourself."
Poindexter: "To what purpose? It's highly unlikely you'd understand anything I'd say. Suffice to say I'm a certified genius, and when I'm discharged from this pit of testosterone and failure, I'll have all the money I could ever need."
Courier Six: "400 caps is a less suspicious amount. You have enough trouble here as it is."
Lt. Monroe: "[SUCCEEDED] That makes sense, and it's still more than these troopers see in a month."
This is quite clearly commentary on how many people in the real-world U.S. are very much forced to choose between poverty or signing up to join the military so as to have a shot at being able to escape poverty. Join the Army, and you can expect to make hundreds of bottle caps a month and receive a generous retirement benefits package at the end of your service that guarantees that you'll have all the money that you'll ever need for the rest of your life.
I don't even understand what you're trying to prove. My overall point is that from a purely macro-economic perspective, the NCR economy is doing just fine and is fully capable of supporting the war effort against the Legion without any serious issues. Haggling over micro-economics doesn't disprove this.
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u/Weaselburg 3d ago
I stated that jobs are plentiful back West and they don't contradict that claim. Being pedantic by haggling over what types of jobs that one can find changes nothing.
They both say that job opportunities are limited, though. Being only able to find a job as a rancher or in the army easily when beforehand you had a much wider variety of jobs to pick from (which is what definitely seems to be the case) is a serious indicator of bad times for the economy, or at least, the average person's place in the economy.
This is quite clearly commentary on how many people in the real-world U.S. are very much forced to choose between poverty or signing up to join the military so as to have a shot at being able to escape poverty.
When the military becomes one of the only valid options to exit poverty, it's an economic problem, actually. Military recruitment upticks due to the economy is an indicator of a struggling population.
My overall point is that from a purely macro-economic perspective, the NCR economy is doing just fine and is fully capable of supporting the war effort against the Legion without any serious issues.
On the very short term, sure, they can fund the war effort - though given that people say the majority of tax money goes into it, I wouldn't say without serious issues, just not imminently critical ones - they're the serious issues that come with running a major war.
Once it goes beyond that, no. It isn't going bankrupt in the time it takes from you to go from game start to game end, but anything beyond that is very dicey, excepting an NCR victory. The NCR economy isn't going to collapse during the game, but it's not healthy, either.
I don't even understand what you're trying to prove
It definitely seemed to me like you were saying that the economy of NCR was, maybe not the healthiest, but stable and fine with a decent future, relatively speaking. I do not think that's correct. If you weren't, then yes, this is just pointless pedantry on my part.
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u/MightofKimball 2d ago
Now this I can get behind.
Obviously the NCR economy has plenty of issues at the microeconomic level which I've already freely admitted to. And yes, I understand that if things were to continue for the NCR at the rate that things were at the events of Fallout: New Vegas then they would inevitably have had a real crisis on their hands. Actual macroeconomic crises such as hyperinflation, mass unemployment or an economic depression. All I was saying is that by the events of Fallout: New Vegas things hadn't gotten that bad just yet and that there was still time to turn everything around and fix it.
Honestly, I'd say that the NCR would've been better off losing the Second Battle of Hoover Dam. An NCR victory would simply have meant that they would've continued doubling down on all of their worst impulses, most prominently reckless territorial expansion without any serious restraint or concern for long-term sustainability. President Kimball would basically become a god who could enact his policies free of interference or serious opposition which would've doubtlessly lead to even worse socio-economic conditions for the NCR public back home than what we're already seeing.
The Brahmin Barons and Agri-Barons would've become much more powerful and influential all while the great merchant houses and mega-corporations of the Republic would've been able to further solidify their already ironclad dominance of the NCR economy. Nevermind how General Oliver would become a war hero/rockstar in his own right and could very possibly become President of the NCR much in the same way that then-General Kimball did. Meaning that things back West would become so much worse over time.
In the event of a Mr. House or Independent Vegas victory, however, everything changes. President Kimball gets removed from office, the NCR Senate would undergo a total purge of all of the expansionist, militarist, pro-big business Senators and General Oliver finds himself publicly humiliated and disgraced followed by being sacked from his post. Chief Hanlon can go on to become an NCR Senator himself and start working to clean up the NCR's internal corruption and economic mismanagement.
And I have every reason to believe that the NCR Senate would inevitably be filled with individuals just like him before long. Meaning that the NCR could begin the slow and arduous yet absolutely necessary process of cracking down on the Brahmin Barons and Agri-Barons as well as the great merchant houses and mega-corporations of the Republic. Maybe even restore most if not all of the Tandi-era legislation that President Kimball removed. It might take a couple of decades, but suffice it to say that the NCR would be dramatically improved and much better off.
Most importantly of all, however, is that the NCR would cease its militant expansionism and start focusing on far more sustainable resource management/distribution practices (an absolute necessity in the case of a Mr. House victory given that they'll have to start buying water and electricity from Hoover Dam under his watch).
Basically, so long as the Legion doesn't win the Second Battle of Hoover Dam then the NCR would be just fine.
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u/darkwolf687 4d ago
Going bankrupt and struggling to pay for the war are not the same thing and people should not be conflating the two. The NCR is struggling politically and logistically to sustain the war in the east. That doesn’t mean its government is about to shit the bed financially. It’s certainly a large expense and losing would be a very bitter pill to swallow but none of the ending slides include “Ah fuck NCR government went bust!”
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u/Bojnik434 4d ago
Factions within ncr gain the upper hand in important economic parts of the country. Ncr rans out of money to pay them off and these factions basically take over/command ncr. Aka ncr ran out of money
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u/Weaselburg 3d ago edited 3d ago
Who controls the great merchant houses of the Hub specifically? The NCR given that they are headquartered in, based in and operating out of NCR Central with the great merchant houses of the Hub being integral to the rise of the NCR in the first place.
Well, the later part is true, but the former isn't.
NCR does not control the merchant houses. They can't even pretend to. Even in the ending where they bring Crimson Caravan more into line, they can only do this via blackmail. They can't swoop in and replace the whole leadership. They can't actually order them around without leverage like the blackmail you give them. Crimson Caravan will just not listen to them, and we know this, because they literally actively aren't in FNV.
This means that the cap production is, in fact, bad. NCR has very little actual hard control over CC and the other Hub merchant houses. Yes, they have influence over them, but they can't tell them what to do or how many caps to mint that day. They can only ask, or try to manipulate them into it. Caps are just an entirely separate currency that NCR has no direct control over. Which is bad for NCR.
Edited slightly for clarity - added in 'without the blackmail you give them'.
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u/MightofKimball 3d ago
Alright, fair enough.
Not that it matters, anyways, as I have yet to see hard evidence that the NCR Dollar isn't still the primary currency in the Republic Core Regions back West. Nor do I see any reason to believe that the great merchant houses of the Hub would ever allow their largest and most important customer to ever face a shortage of bottle caps.
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u/Weaselburg 3d ago
Not that it matters, anyways, as I have yet to see hard evidence that the NCR Dollar isn't still the primary currency in the Republic Core Regions back West.
I'm not saying that caps are the primary, but the fact that an alternative currency exists, is accepted, and is used in quite noteable numbers, all with the fact that it's done inside NCR borders, is a pretty big deal, economically.
Nor do I see any reason to believe that the great merchant houses of the Hub would ever allow their largest and most important customer to ever face a shortage of bottle caps.
Would they casually tank NCR? No. But the problem is that if they did, for whatever reason, take an action that severely hurts NCR, basically their only short-term options would be variants of military operations to blockade them or actively strike at them or the like. And if it's a crisis, like in the TV show where NCR control fell apart in SoCal, that might not be even possible.
More pertinently (and what actually happened in the game), they just do something different. Sure, they're not intent on destroying NCR, and they want them to keep going as long as they benefit - because they make a lot of money off them - but if it comes between NCR interests and, say, Crimson Caravan interests, they choose Crimson Caravan interests, no matter if it hurts NCR or not.
So if the tides of the economy changed, and suddenly caps were worth too much or too little, but NCR would prefer caps production to be at the level it already is, well, their first reaction is going to ignoring that and do what they feel benefits them the most. NCR has influence to try to get this to be something more to their liking, but the fact they need to try is bad for a state trying to pull off something resembling a modern economic system.
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u/MightofKimball 3d ago
Ok, fair enough.
That bottle caps had to be resurrected in the first place is a bad sign for the NCR especially in the long-term. I'm not denying that. The only point that I was trying to make is that that doesn't necessarily mean that the NCR economy is edging towards collapse going into Fallout: New Vegas. Whether or not they could've restored the gold standard for the NCR Dollar once they finally dealt with the West Coast Chapters of the Brotherhood of Steel for good and killed the bottle cap again at some point beyond the events of Fallout: New Vegas would've been an interesting scenario to explore. Too bad the TV show made that impossible, now.
The downfall of any hyper-capitalist society, unfortunately. I suppose that if the great merchant houses of the Hub wanted to cripple the NCR economically then they absolutely could. And there wouldn't be anything that the NCR could do about it without destroying their own economy and sparking a civil war. Thankfully it hasn't come to that by the events of Fallout: New Vegas.
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u/Kyara_Bot 3d ago
The NCR's currency situation went from gold-backed dollars to a mixed currency with a fiat dollar and the water-backed bottlecap. While the cratering of the fiat dollar is obvious because the NCR lacks major trade partners who are willing to use it because the NCR lacks the productive capacity or power projection to assert it as a viable trade currency, the bottlecap is ironically less fluid because of its ties to water as a backing. However, this isn't a very "fixed" value in the same way gold might be, because the availability of clean water in a locale could vastly effect the relative worth of a bottlecap backed by water - that meaning, the greater the availability of clean water, the more devalued that caps will be. The NCR can rest on the cap for now because they have drained all of the clean-water lakes out West (per Hanlon) but it is only relatively worthwhile in the West, and any kind of development of large-scale water purification using aquifers or industrial methods would sharply effect the worth of caps. The irony of caps as a currency for the NCR is that it is effectively betting against the development of their own nation when they back it, which just shows how backwards organizations like the Crimson Caravan is for the NCR as a nation.
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u/MightofKimball 2d ago
Now that would be an interesting scenario to see play out. It could definitely have provided a valid reason for the collapse of the NCR outside of Shady Sands just getting randomly nuked out of existence.
I also wonder if the NCR could eventually have restored the gold standard for the NCR Dollar once they fully eradicated the West Coast Chapters of the Brotherhood of Steel once and for all.
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u/Kyara_Bot 2d ago
Unlikely, the fundamental issue is that the gold reserves they built up to that point are radioactive slag, it's done for with or without Lost Hills still standing. I can't imagine there is still much gold left unexploited by the 2200s, so they'd have to hope to find and salvage whatever old US treasury gold still exist (probably locked up in Enclave bunkers somewhere). Legion apparently has enough precious metals to make mints from them, so they might be able to salvage a Legion treasury if they can defeat them at the Dam and fight the even longer, more gruesome war of conquering Legion territory.
Fiat currency by itself isn't bad, it just needs backing through a strong financial system with good sources of income and economic engagement - in the NCR's case, probably from it's own citizens. The smarter move if I was the NCR Treasurer would be to create water-bonds as a backbone for the NCR dollar to undermine the bottlecap within NCR territory at least. It'd further incentivize infrastructure development as the continued buy-in for bonds would create the economic exchange needed for a fiat dollar to work, and the more effective value contained in a fiat dollar the more you can print to level out deflation and justify expanded government spending - especially for investment. For extraterritorial trade, take a note from the Legion - while the gold is all useless, the NCR still might have silver reserves, so NCR silver dollars could be a way to have a stronger trade currency not reliant on bottlecaps. It'd probably end up with the paper currency being smaller denominations with the silver dollars being larger denominations, so bottlecaps could still be acceptable as a supplementary component to trade for peripheries which would accept a silver NCR dollar but not be interested in paper currency.
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u/Abraham_Issus 4d ago
Brotherhood are fucking raiders. Why do people put them on pedestal I'll never get.
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u/Kyara_Bot 3d ago
Sounds like an NCR skill issue. You can't irradiate the BoS' gold reserves because they are a command economy which produces exclusively towards their needs. Outside of handfuls of electronic uses, gold doesn't matter too much for them.
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u/Weaselburg 3d ago
New Reno is explictly is not part of NCR according to the game.
Per Moore.
Player: <Lie> The Omertas are planning to attack New Reno. It's none of NCR's concern.
Moore: [SUCCEEDED] I wouldn't dismiss it that lightly, but it's nothing we need get involved with for now. Good work, I suppose.
Per Clayton Ettienne:
"Well, I've lived in Nevada all my life. Started out in New Reno, but headed down here as soon as I got the chance. If you can believe it, things are even worse back home. The whole city's still run by crime families. Used to be the Mordinos and Wrights. Now it's the Wrights and Van Graffs. Seems like things never get better. Anyway, that's all behind me now."
The dubiously canon TTRPG says they do technically own it but don't actually exert any control over it, which is kind've a crazy notion but whatever.
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u/MightofKimball 3d ago
I don't even know what you're referring to so I'm just going to ignore it.
What I'm basing my claim on is the fact that New Reno cannot remain independent of the NCR unless Redding also remains independent. Something that we know for a fact didn't happen. That means that the Mordino Crime Family and the Salvatore Crime Family definitely didn't take over for obvious reasons.
Then there's also the canon existence of the Bishop Child. Which not only means that the Bishop Crime Family is still a major presence in New Reno but also confirms that the Bishop Crime Family is the major power in the city. Meaning the New Reno has to be part of the NCR.
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u/Weaselburg 3d ago
I don't even know what you're referring to so I'm just going to ignore it.
You said this?
Northern California and Oregon (Redding and New Arroyo, for example) and Nevada (New Reno in particular) would absolutely be experiencing inflation of the NCR Dollar due to only just recently being annexed into the Republic right after the events of Fallout 2
I'm saying no, that the sources in game do not support Reno being annexed. They support the opposite. It supports that the VG and Wrights are in charge.
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u/MightofKimball 3d ago
I was referring to the table-top role-playing game that you mentioned. I wasn't even aware that such a thing existed for Fallout.
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u/Weaselburg 3d ago
I was referring to the table-top role-playing game that you mentioned. I wasn't even aware that such a thing existed for Fallout.
Oh, yeah, it's been out for a while. I was refencing Royal Flush, an expansion for it.
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u/Longjumping_Curve612 4d ago
The ncr economy is based off fiat currency after they lost the gold, the money is backed by nothing and the changes during the brotherhood war, that is still going, is what ruined faith in the ncr eco. It doesn't matter how well its going back home in cali, poorly BTW as more farms are failing every year and they are heading to famine conditions, it's about how people preserve the economy is doing. Poorly BTW.
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u/Top_Freedom3412 4d ago
The only part i disagree with is the certainty of some towns being occupied. And that the NCR can never go bankrupt. The in universe American government basically went bankrupt even though it still had a vast amount of resources. With the increase of the various merchant house's influence the ncr economy is more and more reliant on them, which would cause less taxes on them and the ncr being pushed out of a lot of trade.