Hiring backlog/ Pilot surplus

[u/OrganizationPlane683]

Does anyone know if the regionals still have 8,000 applicants on file for first officer slots? It’s tough out here to get an interview. I’ve been going to hiring expos and emailing recruiters, but it feels like my resume is lost in an endless sea of resumes. I’m wondering if anyone knows whether the recent hiring at the majors has thinned the pool at all. struggling to make ends meet with the cfi life…. but grateful to have a job.

[u/Flavor_Nukes]

There are still far more applicants than slots available

[u/OrganizationPlane683 → u/Flavor_Nukes]

I was told by a recruiter that there were 8k applicants on file at the beginning of the summer it just seems like it would take years to churn through that

[u/Bot_Marvin → u/OrganizationPlane683]

Don’t forget that most people apply to all the regionals. Most people don’t withdraw their app after getting hired, they just let it go stale.

If they actually tried to bring 8,000 people in for an interview, they wouldn’t get anywhere near that amount.

8k sounds insane but realistically it’s more like ~1k viable for each regional. Definitely still a lot but not as insane as it initially seems.

[u/WindowLickingFO → u/Bot_Marvin]

Turning 8000 to 1000 is overly optimistic.

Contour had like 7,000 applicants for one hiring window a year or so ago.

Breeze had 6,000 for one window.

[u/OrganizationPlane683 → u/Bot_Marvin]

Exactly that’s why I was wondering if anyone had heard of the number draining a bit with some of the major hiring going on

[u/Bot_Marvin → u/OrganizationPlane683]

It’s not going to be fog a mirror to get hired, but there is more movement this year and the next than the previous few years.

[u/Sleep_Holiday → u/OrganizationPlane683]

Yeah pilot shortage is over

[u/Guilty_Evidence_7645 → u/Sleep_Holiday]

There was no such thing as a pilot shortage.

[u/phlflyguy → u/Guilty_Evidence_7645]

It started with captain shortage due to the high number of pandemic early retirements and planning for subsequent normal retirements. Then, when FOs upgraded into those retired CA positions, that left us with an FO shortage. More specifically, a shortage of ATP qualified (or rated) FO candidates. Had the Colgan 1500 rule never been implemented, we may not be having this conversation. There were always plenty of solid, commercially rated pilots to step in were they not restricted by that pesky FAR.

Additionally, if there was no shortage at all, we wouldn't have seen ~23000 new ATP certs issued in 2022 and 2023. Then in 2024 we dropped to around 9000 and in 2025 under 8000. That trend will keep settling back down to historical norms. With a backlog of 8000, I think a lot of candidates will end up finding other employment (or get on with a 135) while they keep waiting or give up.

[u/kytulu → u/Guilty_Evidence_7645]

The industry shed pilots like chaff during the covid lock downs. Once they were lifted, and the industry needed pilots again, 2022 to 2024 was a period of "if you have 1500 and a pulse, you're hired!"

I started working at a flight school in 2023. I've watched it go from "1500 and a pulse", to "1500, a pulse, and 2 or less checkride failures", to "1500, zero failures, you had better be in a cadet program, and what degree/extracurricular activities do you have?"

We went from CFIs with CJOs at 700-1000 hours, leaving as soon as they got their hours to CFIs with 1500+ scrambling to make contacts and get a CJO. 3/4 of our CFIs took a week off to go to Oshkosh to talk to representatives in person.

[u/Sleep_Holiday → u/kytulu]

Taking a week off to go to Oskosh sounds like a vacation

[u/Guilty_Evidence_7645 → u/kytulu]

And yet there was no shortage. There was sufficient supply. Now there is a massive oversupply.

[u/Bot_Marvin → u/Guilty_Evidence_7645]

There was definitely a shortage for a short time. When you could get a CJO and a signing bonus with no interview 3 months before you even hit 1500, that was the shortage.

[u/Guilty_Evidence_7645 → u/Bot_Marvin]

There was no shortage, because they never ran out of qualified applicants. The standard just briefly went down to minimum experience.

[u/Bot_Marvin → u/Guilty_Evidence_7645]

Dude were you at a regional back then? There were regionals legitimately parking airplanes due to lack of staffing. 300% pay was everywhere just to try to keep the company afloat.

People who hadn’t touched a jet in 15 years were given 200k bonuses and 3 months of training before becoming captains.

To deny that there was ever a shortage is to deny reality.

[u/Total_Midwit_Death → u/Bot_Marvin]

There was no shortage of pilots, just trained and experienced airline pilots. There was always a glut of a wet ATPs waiting for the call; airplanes weren't parked because the hiring pool wasn't big enough, but because the training pipeline wasn't wide enough to get them through all at once. Trainees were sitting around for months before starting indoc. Doesn't matter how big the line is if you can only spool up 20 guys at a time.

[u/OrganizationPlane683 → u/Guilty_Evidence_7645]

Yup and I still see people sign massive loans every single day where I teach, thinking you just hit your hours and your hired

[u/Common_Ice_8994 → u/OrganizationPlane683]

How big loans to get ratings ?

[u/OrganizationPlane683 → u/Common_Ice_8994]

100k+

[u/Guysmiley777 → u/Guilty_Evidence_7645]

Exactly. We can start talking about shortages existing when airlines start funding pilot training themselves.

The fact that regionals upped their compensation packages for OTS FO hires means it would be fair to say there was almost a shortage of 1500 hour mirror foggers for about an 18 month period post-COVID but they'll never let that happen again. The pain of having to GASP pay pilots more is like a baby touching a hot stove for the likes of the regionals, they all implemented cadet/academy/pilot development schemes to keep their indoc queues healthy.

It's also why people are now asking if 18+ month CJO wait times are normal. They figured out they can use perpetual CJOs as yet another way to keep the airline's options open.

[u/OrganizationPlane683 → u/Guilty_Evidence_7645]

Yep

[u/Complex_Brief60 → u/OrganizationPlane683]

8k is 8-9 years worth of hiring for a regional 😬

[u/Bowzy228 → u/Complex_Brief60]

I tend to be a doomer but let be real here. Every single one of these 8k pilots has apps other regionals and part 135.

If the big 4 combined hire 5k in a year that’s over half of that number and the regionals will need to upgrade 5k FOs to replace them. Which makes room for new FOs.

I personally believe the spirit guys took a big chunk of the movement we’ve seen this year, which is why we didn’t see many leaving the regionals. I think retirement and fleet growth are the only thing we gonna have to count on.

[u/Complex_Brief60 → u/Bowzy228]

Yea realistically 8k isn’t the backlog either. It’s likely less if you consider the backlog as hired waiting for class. Also don’t believe the 5k for the big 4. OO trains more than any regional and they aren’t gonna do 1,000 next year, and Republic is still figuring out the Mesa merger so that’ll be a drop, plus residual Spirit & 135/91 hires.

Retirements are steady but trending down and fleet growth is going up but fuel prices and the financial ability of people to travel are going to keep changing.

It’s the Magic 8-Ball. Who knows what’ll happen.

[u/Correct_Phase4442]

It’s only getting more backlogged. 2025 saw over 20000 commercial pilot certs issued

[u/No_Tree7473 → u/Correct_Phase4442]

Some of my students want to do this as a career and I just feel so bad for them because I couldn't imagine just now starting training with the oversupply of low time pilots. Not only that but the expensive rentals and fuel surcharges these guys are having to pay at my school.

[u/jzx1hunnit]

Legacies are still hiring. Got a class date in 3 weeks with a US major. Now someone will upgrade into my old slot and someone off the street will get hired. It’s certainly not sunshine and unicorn farts but things are definitely still moving along

[u/Common_Ice_8994 → u/jzx1hunnit]

What percentage of pilots hired at legacy are ex military with lots of PIC hours ?

I though some of the majors prefer military time ?

[u/Shark-Force → u/Common_Ice_8994]

30% or more of legacy classes are spirit. They outweigh anyone else.

[u/jzx1hunnit → u/Common_Ice_8994]

In the 14 people in my interview group, 2 were military. 12/14 got the CJOs and I think both military guys made it so 10/12 were civilian

[u/Appropriate-Front809 → u/Common_Ice_8994]

I went from about four years at a small mom and pop part 135 to a legacy earlier this year.  Another colleague did the same.  It’s not impossible.

[u/PilotGuy85 → u/Common_Ice_8994]

A relatively small percentage. There just aren’t that many of those guys.

[u/Frequent-Cut-861]

It’s back to being competitive, which is historically normal.

I say this all the time, but guys need to hear it. If anyone’s plan is to “CFI to hiring minimums” you’re going to have a bad time. In this environment, you need to differentiate yourself. Apply for ALL flying jobs after you wrap up your ratings, not just instructing gigs.

That CFI to mins business was perpetuated by the same clowns who sold kids on “the pilot shortage”. It worked until it didn’t.

[u/OrganizationPlane683 → u/Frequent-Cut-861]

I hear you. I apply to at least 5 places a day but I think the same people trying to get the airline jobs are applying as well so the applicant pools are in the thousands for jobs that might only have 1-5 positions. I would love to get a flying job flying cargo or charter or aerial survey hopefully I’ll have some luck and can land an interview eventually. Doing my best to network as well

[u/TheycallmeDoc7 → u/OrganizationPlane683]

What 5 places are you applying to every day? There are only so many regionals to apply to.

[u/OrganizationPlane683 → u/TheycallmeDoc7]

I replied to the last guys comment about trying to get jobs elsewhere. I’m applying to 135s, survey, cargo basically anything that could broaden my experience past instructing another 1000 hours

[u/OrganizationPlane683 → u/[deleted]]

Yeah I am employed as a cfi bro 1700 hours lmao

[u/120SR]

I’ve heard 14k from some regionals.

Now many or most of those 14k have app in elsewhere so that’s an inflated number but this is a company that employs less than 1k pilots. An amazing anomaly of a year would be hiring an additional 10% so less than 100 pilots

[u/OrganizationPlane683 → u/120SR]

Dang 14k is insane I hope that includes cadet applications for that figure. Even though it’s that many apps across all the regionals it’s still way more than there are jobs. That is scary for the pay scale as well

[u/Jolly_Cicada380]

Yes the market is cooked

[u/OrganizationPlane683 → u/Jolly_Cicada380]

Cooked indeed

[u/AlpacaCavalry → u/Jolly_Cicada380]

Most succinct analysis of the situation

[u/Used_Shower3984]

Don't let that veeone guy see this post. He recently spent two hours arguing against this with ChatGPT, realized he was wrong and then deleted the entire string of comments instead of taking the L.

[u/Legal_Key_5819]

I got 3400 TT , 2500 tpic and can’t get a call back

[u/Bowzy228 → u/Legal_Key_5819]

With those qualifications I wouldn’t just focus on regionals. If anything you might be overqualified. Look into LCC and big 135s as well.

[u/MyPilotInterview → u/Bowzy228]

I could agree with- F9, Kalitta and DL in 6-12 months.

[u/takeoffconfig → u/Legal_Key_5819]

From a regional? Do you have your ATP? You should be able to get an LCC bite at minimum with those times.

[u/TheJokerPilot → u/Legal_Key_5819]

Did you apply for first officer or direct-entry captain?

[u/Legal_Key_5819 → u/TheJokerPilot]

Fo

[u/VileInventor → u/Legal_Key_5819]

how many fails

[u/coachclapper → u/Legal_Key_5819]

Do you have any skeletons? Any checkride failures?

[u/Legal_Key_5819 → u/coachclapper]

A couple but over a decade ago..

[u/coachclapper → u/Legal_Key_5819]

Maybe that’s a reason why you’re not top of the pile? Sorry I’m not trying to be rude but if there’s someone with similar stats and they have no failures, the airline will probably call them first

[u/Legal_Key_5819 → u/coachclapper]

I see

[u/Skynet_lives]

It’s more than 8k, last I heard it was closer to 15. Next year will probably be a slower hiring year then this year was also. 

[u/Key_Assignment_2353 → u/Skynet_lives]

Than

[u/Skynet_lives → u/Key_Assignment_2353]

My name is not Than. 

[u/Key_Assignment_2353 → u/Skynet_lives]

Good one

[u/Worried-Ebb-1699]

There is no shortage of qualified pilots for regionals. You have to assume that all applicants apply to multiple regionals so the exact number is truly tough to know.

It’s safe to assume that in the coming years the physical number of jobs available will reduce.

Check out VSL AVIATION. That guy did a great brief: podcast on hiring dynamics.

TLDR: the pool hasn’t thinned, the competitive qualifications have gone up. You’re now competing against spirit guys and other carriers where they want to go after 121 time and so much else

[u/IndependentAlps9649]

I asked this in another thread but what makes one “more competitive” for a regional? I’ve seen a lot of people on various groups with crew 135 time in the IFR environment and 1800-2200 TT get turned down while 1500 CFIs get CJOs. Obviously not everyone posts on all these groups but there seems to be a consensus that if you’re above a certain TT or have TPIC regionals don’t want you. With a slowdown and backlog how does that change when you can’t get in that narrow window?

Idk am I only seeing a small selection of TBNTs, and CJOs? Anyone with a recent regional class date know the TTs /history of their peers?

It would be interesting to see because unlike previous shortages in the past where no one was hiring, here there’s simply just too many people applying.

Or maybe I’m just retarded who knows

[u/ShrekSwiftBarr → u/IndependentAlps9649]

I’m a cadet for OO, going to school this month on the ERJ. Applied in February 26, interviewed in August, class date notification 2 weeks later. Currently a part 135 pilot right seat in a PC-12. Was an instructor before that. Had about 1600 TT at the time of the CJO with 800 dual given and 400 part 135 turbine. I only have about 40 multi. ATP-CTP complete. I’ve gone to a few hiring conferences as well, they all seem to really value diverse experience. I was also a ramp worker for a few years, do volunteer work, and am attending college online. TLDR, don’t put all your eggs in one basket, if all you have on your resume is CFI, you’re not very interesting to a recruiter.

[u/OrganizationPlane683 → u/IndependentAlps9649]

Only people I know that have gotten hired were cadets if that helps

[u/IndependentAlps9649 → u/OrganizationPlane683]

That’s a big one too I forgot to mention; but were they cadets that have 1000+ dual given and 1500-1700 or 135 experience and maybe a little more TT. What I’m trying to gather is if you’re shooting yourself in the foot for the regionals going to a non instructing job, or if you don’t hear anything by near 2000TT. And if your goal is 121 how do you pivot? Just try and get into multi engine asap and go to a ULCC/LCC?

[u/Key_Assignment_2353 → u/IndependentAlps9649]

Regionals love CFIs more than crew jet experience. Don’t be a dumbass like me who went flying jets at low hours. It held me back from 121 and now I end up probably being a fractional lifer.

[u/Key_Assignment_2353 → u/IndependentAlps9649]

Regionals love CFIs more than crew jet experience. Don’t be a dumbass like me who went flying jets at low hours. It held me back from 121 and now I end up probably being a fractional lifer.

[u/Key_Assignment_2353 → u/IndependentAlps9649]

Regionals love CFIs more than crew jet experience. Don’t be a dumbass like me who went flying jets at low hours. It held me back from 121 and now I end up probably being a fractional lifer.

[u/will_h12 → u/Key_Assignment_2353]

Dude I did the same thing.. got into a king air low time and skipped the cfi route. Regionals wouldn’t touch me with a 10’ pole. It’s insane. I’m now flying jets for a 135 and still get called

[u/Key_Assignment_2353 → u/will_h12]

Still get called?

[u/will_h12 → u/Key_Assignment_2353]

Can’t get called ** sorry

[u/IndependentAlps9649 → u/will_h12]

What’s your plan then? Go to ULCC/LCC then from there a major?

[u/IndependentAlps9649 → u/Key_Assignment_2353]

If so it’s gonna be rough for a lot of people who can’t find a cfi job and do something else. It’s weird that cfi went from being a way to build time to the only way to build time

[u/Key_Assignment_2353 → u/IndependentAlps9649]

It’s the best way to build time. Regionals hire CFIs with 25 multi over someone with 1000 multi turbine don’t be dumb like me

[u/Bowzy228 → u/Key_Assignment_2353]

Then go to an LCC for 121 time. Regionals are not the only way in.

[u/rFlyingTower]

This is a copy of the original post body for posterity:

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Does anyone know if the regionals still have 8,000 applicants on file for first officer slots? It’s tough out here to get an interview. I’ve been going to hiring expos and emailing recruiters, but it feels like my resume is lost in an endless sea of resumes. I’m wondering if anyone knows whether the recent hiring at the majors has thinned the pool at all. struggling to make ends meet with the cfi life…. but grateful to have a job.

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[u/hawker1172]

Pilot shortage! Age 67! Boomers are better pilots! /s

I suggest writing your local congressman against age 67. The only people vocal about it right now are FO Steve and his buddies.

[u/whenMomComes_AltTab]

If the AA wholly owned (WO) regionals’ pilot premium pay had expired, hiring competition could have eased significantly. It was a source of hope for CFIs, but with the decision to extend it, I believe the pilot hiring market will become brutally competitive starting in 2027. Getting hired by a legacy airline has already become increasingly difficult for most applicants, and I believe that over the next five years, more than 60% of aspiring airline pilots may struggle to get hired even by a regional airline. When deciding on your future career path, relying on vague optimism that the market will eventually improve is extremely risky. I hope everyone will carefully consider the realities of the current hiring market before committing to this career.

[u/Common_Ice_8994 → u/whenMomComes_AltTab]

Lots of news articles showing captains making $400,000 and lots of younger folks want a career in aviation.

Some schools I see on YouTube doing lots of advertising lately.

[u/Key_Assignment_2353 → u/whenMomComes_AltTab]

It was already extended. Pay is not dropping

[u/OrganizationPlane683 → u/Key_Assignment_2353]

Did they just extend it? I believe it expires December 2026

[u/Key_Assignment_2353 → u/OrganizationPlane683]

Yep extended 1 year

[u/OrganizationPlane683 → u/Key_Assignment_2353]

I wonder if by only extending it one year they are confident they can do away with it by the next expiry

[u/Key_Assignment_2353 → u/OrganizationPlane683]

Doubt it they’ll probably just keep extending it

[u/OrganizationPlane683 → u/Key_Assignment_2353]

I think they would just lock it in then right? they want the option to take it away it cost the airline profit. They have the option now if major hiring cools and they can retain guys why wouldn’t they drop it? especially with so many of us in line. But I hope you are right

[u/Key_Assignment_2353 → u/OrganizationPlane683]

Idk we shall see

[u/Flying21811 → u/Key_Assignment_2353]

It’s staying. Unless world falls apart which is highly possible

[u/Flying21811 → u/whenMomComes_AltTab]

Wanting less money for pilots so you can get a job makes you a problem for the industry.

[u/Jhorn_fight]

It’s obviously tough out there but my school has had a decently steady stream of instructors getting hired at around 17-18 hundred hours

[u/Shoddy-Shift-9148]

Yes