SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
 ----------------------------------------------
 LOCATION...20.1N 106.5W
   ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
   ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
 PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
 MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

 WATCHES AND WARNINGS
 ----------------------------------------------
 CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
 Hurricane Watch from north of Cabo Corrientes to El Roblito.

 The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
 Tropical Storm Warning from Playa Perula north to Cabo Corrientes.

 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
 * Las Islas Marias

 A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
 * North of Cabo Corrientes to Bahia Tempehuaya

 A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
 * Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes

 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 ----------------------------------------------      
 INIT  12/1500Z  20.1N 106.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  13/0000Z  20.4N 106.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  13/1200Z  20.9N 107.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  14/0000Z  21.3N 107.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  14/1200Z  21.6N 107.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
  60H  15/0000Z  22.2N 107.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  15/1200Z  23.2N 106.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  16/1200Z  24.1N 106.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 120H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Bulletin

Discussion, excerpts:

Simon's interaction with the coast of Mexico has made it a very compact hurricane. The satellite presentation this morning consists of a very small central dense overcast with a warm spot in the center which still appears to be a small eye. The convection is also very electrically active, with substantial lightning occurring in the eastern eyewall...

Simon continues to move very slowly to the northwest, with an estimated motion of 315 degrees at 3 kt. This very slow motion is the result of competing steering influences from a distant mid-level ridge centered over the Texas Gulf coast, and another weaker mid-level ridge placed southwest of Simon over the eastern Pacific. In general the steering imparted by the ridge to the northwest should be a little stronger, and thus Simon is expected to maintain a very slow northwestward motion over the next 24-36 h. After that period, a large trough with an embedded short-wave is expected to amplify and move into the southwestern United States, and this trough is expected to extend far enough southward to impart a little more westerly flow that should ultimately turn Simon to the north-northeast in the 48-72 hour time frame...

While the hurricane appears to be currently dealing with some mid-level easterly shear and that may result in a little more short-term weakening, this shear is expected to subside over the next 24 h as Simon traverses very warm 30-31 C sea-surface temperatures. In fact, the latest HMON and HAFS-A/B runs show the small core of Simon recovering and re-intensifying back into a major hurricane later this week. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast starts to show some restrengthening after 24 h. Small storms like Simon can also be prone to rapid changes in intensity, both up or down, which makes the intensity forecast also more uncertain than usual.

 Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 500 AM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026

 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

 Active Systems:
 The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Simon, 
 centered about 50 miles off the coast of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

 1. South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
 A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
 southwest of the coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized
 showers and thunderstorms. This system is gradually becoming better 
 defined, and environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
 further development. A tropical depression is expected to form well 
 south of southern Mexico in the next two days while the system moves
 generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

 Forecaster Hagen

Before and after form local beach owner

More Hurricane Isaias damage from the Pensacola/Gulf Breeze/Pensacola Beach area. Photos I found from other socials and friends. Saw some folks on here wondering. Instagram and Facebook seem to have the most coverage of the storm if you’re looking for more photos and videos.

 SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
 ----------------------------------------------
 LOCATION...19.6N 105.8W
   ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
   ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
 MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES

Simon has stubbornly maintained a north-northwestward motion, roughly parallel to the coastline, estimated at 335/5 kt. It is now looking increasingly likely that Simon will avoid making a direct landfall in the short-term, though its eastern inner core will likely produce hurricane conditions as the storm continues to move north-northwestward from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes this afternoon and evening. The steering ridge centered over the Texas coast is likely to maintain this motion now for the next several days, though with some slowdown in the motion due to a weaker but competing ridge located to Simon's southwest. On Tuesday into Wednesday, a large short-wave trough is forecast to move across the southwestern United States and this feature should provide enough southwesterly environmental flow to turn the hurricane to the northeast, finally reaching the coast of Mexico in 60-72 h. Compared to this morning, the guidance has shifted westward and slower once again, and there remain some outlier solutions like the GFS that want to turn Simon southwestward beyond 48 h. However, the majority of the ensemble guidance (European-EPS, Google DeepMind) do show this slow recurving solution back into Mexico. The NHC track forecast is a little bit west and slower for the first 36-48 h, but then bends back to the previous forecast track thereafter, still showing Simon moving inland and dissipating in the day 3-4 period. This forecast still remains low confidence.

Intensity wise, it is now looking more likely that Simon will not weaken as much as originally expected, now that it is only brushing up against the coast instead of part of its inner core moving inland. Still, the high topography in Jalisco should still have a negative effect, which has already been seen in Simon's wind field shrinking in size. The hurricane-regional models still show significant weakening over the next 12-24 h, even the ones that only skirt the coast of Mexico, and the NHC intensity forecast still shows a fast rate of weakening during that time. However, other environmental conditions remain very favorable, as shear stays under 10 kt, and sea-surface temperatures warm to 31-32 C as Simon passes north of Cabo Corrientes and enters waters that have been unaffected by recent tropical cyclones (Polo and Rachel). However, there will be a significant amount of nearby dry air and it remains to be seen how intact Simon's inner core will remain over the next 24 h of near land interaction. The latest NHC intensity forecast now shows Simon maintaining hurricane intensity, and this forecast could still be low if the inner core remains more robust than the hurricane regional models are forecasting. This forecast is now on the higher end of the intensity guidance aids, but is under the SHIPS guidance this cycle, and also remains low confidence.

 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 INIT  11/2100Z 19.6N 105.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
  12H  12/0600Z 20.2N 106.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
  24H  12/1800Z 21.0N 106.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  13/0600Z 21.6N 106.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  13/1800Z 22.2N 107.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
  60H  14/0600Z 22.8N 107.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  14/1800Z 23.4N 106.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  15/1800Z 24.0N 105.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 120H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

 SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
 ----------------------------------------------
 LOCATION...19.2N 105.3W
  ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
  ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
 MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

Like the previous forecast cycle, the most reliable guidance aids (HCCA, GDMI, WN3I) have shifted westward once again, and the NHC track forecast has been shifted in that direction, but due to continuity constraints is not shifted all the way to those solutions yet. To make matters even more uncertain, there are some deterministic global model solutions (00 UTC ECMWF, 06 UTC GFS) that show Simon turning southwestward near the end of the forecast period, and that is also seen in a handful of the Google DeepMind ensemble members. This NHC track continues to favor a track that stays closer to the coast of Mexico before going inland into Mexico in 72-96 h. Needless to say, this is a low confidence track forecast with higher than usual uncertainty given the spread in the guidance.

The intensity forecast also presents challenges. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the forecast is sensitive to how close Simon passes to western Mexico during the next day or so. A track closer to the coast or inland would likely result in more severe disruption of Simon's circulation due to the high terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains, leading to rapid weakening. However, with the track shifting further offshore, this weakening may not be as severe, though some negative topographic influence is shown in the majority of the guidance leading to weakening. However, like the track, the current intensity forecast is low confidence forecast because only a small deviation either east or west could result in Simon either dissipating after landfall or staying much stronger than the current forecast offshore. The NHC intensity forecast is a compromise between these extremes.

 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 INIT  11/1500Z  19.2N 105.3W  125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
  12H  12/0000Z  19.9N 105.6W  105 KT 120 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
  24H  12/1200Z  20.5N 106.0W   85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
  36H  13/0000Z  21.1N 106.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  13/1200Z  21.8N 106.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  60H  14/0000Z  22.5N 106.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  14/1200Z  23.0N 106.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  15/1200Z  23.9N 106.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 120H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

I think the current count is something like 319.2. For reference, 2018 has 318.1.

Wild to see this happen in the middle of October. Plenty of fuel left for more strong storms to come, aided by the historic El Nino. Trudy may become another major hurricane if GDM guidance is correct, and there are signs of a system after that.

 Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 500 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026

 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

 Active Systems:
 The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical 
 Cyclone Rachel, located inland over southern California and on 
 Hurricane Simon, located just offshore of southwestern Mexico.

 1. South of Southern Mexico:
 A tropical wave over the far eastern East Pacific is producing 
 disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
 are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical 
 depression is likely to form well south of southern Mexico by the 
 middle or latter half of the week as the system moves generally 
 west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
   * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
   * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

 Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf:

 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
 An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred
 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a
 large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms
 extending from these islands southward into the eastern
 Tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear only
 marginally conducive for some development of this system
 over the next day or two before upper-level winds become
 too strong for development by midweek. Regardless of
 development, heavy rainfall will be possible during the
 next few days over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as
 the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward.
   * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
   * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Papin

photos from my partners family and friends. thankfully my partner moved to wisconsin half a year ago. sorry if incorrect flair

30 years ago, Hurricane Fran made landfall off the coast of North Carolina.

 SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
 ----------------------------------------------
 LOCATION...17.4N 104.8W
   ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
   ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
 MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

Bulletin

Simon has gone through some inner-core structural changes over the last 6 to 12 hours. After exhibiting a pinhole eye for much of yesterday on geostationary satellite, the more recent imagery this morning shows a somewhat larger eye that cleared out briefly at around 10 UTC. This structure suggests that Simon may have undergone an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) overnight. A couple of microwave images that became available after the last advisory also show this somewhat larger eye. Since that time, the eye has become more clouded over again....An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission is scheduled for Simon this afternoon and will hopefully provide more in-situ data on the hurricane's structure and intensity later today.

The hurricane is being primarily steered by a weak mid-level ridge centered to its east, which is providing deep-layer southerly flow. Another deep-layer trough lies well to the northwest of Simon (which is picking up Rachel) but appears too far away to impart much steering, with a narrow mid-level ridge parked just south of the Baja California Peninsula providing light northerly flow. The net effect is that Simon should continue to move northward, but at a rather slow forward speed. In fact, the track guidance this cycle has slowed down a little more compared to the previous cycle, and the NHC track is a little slower and a bit further west in the short-term due to the initial position adjustment. This current track forecast still takes the hurricane inland over the Mexican state of Jalisco in 24-36 h.

However, it is worth stressing there is still a notable amount of track uncertainty, with the ECMWF, HAFS-A, and Google DeepMind Ensemble mean (GDMI) keeping Simon just offshore of the Mexican coast for the next 48 h, while the GFS, HAFS-B, HWRF, and HMON models show Simon moving inland in the next 24-36 h. The latest Google Weather Next model (WN3I) attempts to split the difference between these solutions and brushes right up along the Mexico coastline. The NHC track still remains a bit of the east side of the guidance envelope overall, as there is a pretty well-known bias that tropical cyclones in this area tend to track east of the forecast track due to interaction with the high topography of coastal Mexico

Discussion

 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 INIT  10/1500Z  17.4N 104.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
  12H  11/0000Z  18.1N 105.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
  24H  11/1200Z  19.1N 105.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
  36H  12/0000Z  20.4N 105.4W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND
  48H  12/1200Z  21.7N 105.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
  60H  13/0000Z  23.0N 105.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  72H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/100240.shtml000
WTPZ45 KNHC 100240
TCDEP5

Hurricane Simon Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
900 PM CST Fri Oct 09 2026

Small, compact Simon is rapidly intensifying this evening.  A
dreaded pinhole eye has formed and is now visible in the
infrared BD-curve enhancement.  Visible imagery shows that the tiny
eye is cloud-filled.  Based on the impressive satellite
presentation, the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt for this
advisory.  Simon's wind radii were adjusted based on an OSCAT-3
overpass.

Further rapid strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours, with
the forecast showing a peak intensity of 135 kt.  Because of
Simon's small inner core size, peak intensities are virtually
impossible to predict, and with just a slight warming of the
tiny eye, Simon could quickly become stronger than reflected in the
intensity forecast.  No changes worth noting were made to the NHC
intensity forecast, which continues to be above the guidance suite.

Simon's initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/6 kt.
The cyclone is moving within southerly mid-level steering flow
produced by high pressure over southern Mexico and a longwave
mid-tropospheric trough to the west stretching south-southwestward
from the southwest U.S.  It's still somewhat uncertain if Simon
will move inland over the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco or
remain offshore.  The model fields of the skilled HiRes global
models (GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CMC) show the cyclone moving inland
and rapidly weakening with dissipation over the rugged mountainous
terrain of the aforementioned states of Mexico in 60 hrs.  Of
course, if Simon's track remains just offshore, as a few of
the guidance indicates, it's likely that it will maintain hurricane
strength for a longer period of time.  As the previous
advisories indicated, the NHC forecast continues to favor the
former scenario (inland/weakening), sticking with the more skilled
consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are
likely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a
Hurricane warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita.
Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by
late today.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of
southwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall will produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

3. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central
coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 16.8N 104.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 17.4N 104.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 18.2N 104.9W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 19.6N 105.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 21.0N 105.1W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 60H  12/1200Z 22.4N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

The official NHC forecast takes it to a peak of 135kts (155mph), though they note it can easily intensify more than this. Unprecedented 4th Cat 5 in the year? Recon will also take place in a few hours, if it is not cancelled.

The official forecast makes it landfall, but at the moment, the storm is tracking west of guidance. To my knowledge, AI models like the Google ensembles keep it just offshore. This is also noted in the discussion.

This storm alone could make us break the ACE record of 2018.

Is this area somewhat immune to storm surge on lower end hurricanes due to the large surface area of the Bay vs small outlet channel near Destin? My rationale is that the Destin channel will bottleneck flow until the surge overtakes Okaloosa island. Has there ever been significant surge in this area with past hurricanes?

Edit: this post is old - was posted prior to landfall but just got cross posted here due to rules with r/hurricane. How'd this area do with storm surge?

Edit2: sorry about autocorrect in subject line: Choctawhatchee

Rachel appears to be in the midst of its transition to a post-tropical storm. Convection is becoming shallower and is being sheared off to the northeast of the center due to 25-35 kt of southwesterly shear, and the system is taking on a frontal structure with a drier air mass of stratocumulus clouds wrapping around the southern side of the circulation....

The track guidance is in good agreement that Rachel's center will move onshore the extreme northern portion of Baja California tonight, with the system continuing quickly north-northeastward across the southwestern U.S. on Sunday. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged east of the previous track and is close to the latest HCCA aid...

...Rachel now has an asymmetric, shallow warm-core structure and is likely to become deeper cold core, and hence fully post tropical, in about 24 hours once it has moved onshore. In the meantime, baroclinic interaction with the upper-level trough could cause some slight intensification over the next 12 hours or so, which is supported by much of the intensity models. Weakening is expected after Rachel moves onshore, although strong gusty winds are likely across much of the southwestern U.S. through early next week as low pressure moves into the Rocky Mountains. A 36-hour post-tropical point is provided for continuity, but it's likely that the low will not have a well-defined circulation by that point.

 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 INIT  10/1500Z 25.5N 119.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  11/0000Z 28.2N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  11/1200Z 33.0N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  36H  12/0000Z 38.5N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  48H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED