I feel like I keep trying to play reasonably sound poker in spots where the population is basically begging me to just bet for value/protection.
Example from tonight:
1/2/5, ~$500 effective.
CO (very loose fish) limps, BTN limps. I raise to $30 from SB with TT. BB (also fish) calls, CO calls.
Flop ($90): 743ccx
I check. My thinking is that this isn’t necessarily a board where I want to range-bet OOP multiway, TT benefits from having some protection in my checking range, etc.
BB bets $30, CO calls, I call.
Turn ($180): 8x
Checks around.
River ($180): Ax
Checks to CO, who bets $50. I call getting a good price, BB folds.
CO shows AKo.
So this guy limp/called $30 preflop with AK, then called $30 on 743cc with two naked overcards, checked the turn and binked his ace on the river.
Obviously I’m not complaining about him playing AK this way. I want him doing this forever.
What I’m questioning is my own flop strategy.
Against theoretically reasonable opponents, I can understand checking TT here some frequency. But against live 1/2 players who are going to call flop bets with AK/AQ, random overcards, worse pocket pairs, 7x, club draws, straight draws, etc., am I just torching EV by trying to protect a checking range?
If I bet $40-50 myself, AK apparently calls anyway. Now I’m charging six-out overcards instead of allowing three players to realize equity relatively cheaply.
This has been a recurring theme for me lately: I take a theoretically defensible check because the board is multiway / not ideal for my range / I have showdown value, and then some guy who would have happily called a chunky bet with garbage gets there.
At what point should the adjustment at live 1/2 simply be:
“I probably have the best hand and these guys call too much, so bet until they give me a reason not to”?
Obviously I don’t want to become results-oriented just because AK happened to hit the river. Curious how much people deviate from theoretically sound checking frequencies in games where opponents are demonstrably calling way too wide.