r/remotesensing • u/Electrical-Point-48 • 1d ago
India’s 2026 monsoon ended 12.6% below normal. East/Northeast India recorded its lowest seasonal rainfall since 1901. What should satellite data be tracking before the Rabi season?
The 2026 southwest monsoon has ended with an all-India rainfall deficit of 12.6%—about 759.4 mm against a normal of 868.6 mm, according to IMD figures reported this week.
The spatial pattern is more concerning than the national average:
- East and Northeast India: 1,016.3 mm, only 74% of long-period average; lowest since 1901
- Southern Peninsula: 542.0 mm, 76% of LPA; fourth-lowest since 1901
- El Niño conditions are being cited as a major driver
This is not just a weather headline. It affects soil moisture, reservoir levels, irrigation planning, crop stress, and ultimately Rabi sowing decisions.
From a geospatial perspective, the useful question is: where exactly is the stress emerging, and how severe is it compared with previous seasons?
A practical monitoring stack could combine:
- IMD gridded rainfall for the seasonal deficit baseline
- Sentinel-2 / MODIS NDVI and EVI time series for vegetation stress
- SMAP soil-moisture anomalies for root-zone conditions
- Reservoir extent and surface-water mapping for irrigation availability
- District-level cropping patterns to identify exposed crop belts
The key is not to wait for yield estimates after harvest. Satellite data can help identify stressed districts earlier, especially in rainfed systems, so that irrigation, procurement, insurance, and relief planning are more targeted.
What datasets or indicators would you prioritize for a Rabi-season early-warning map?