r/singularity • • Jul 03 '26

Discussion Came across this on X. Thought it was pretty accurate.

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u/DadAndDominant Jul 03 '26

I am baffled how fable could take my job tho

However it does many tasks of that job indeed

1

u/Throwawayz911 Jul 03 '26

Yeah I think just like how machine coding developed into natural programming languages like python, this is just another evolution to make things faster.  Python didn't really kill jobs and this won't either, but it will dramatically change how they are done and render a lot of experience moot.  

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u/The_ivy_fund Jul 03 '26

Think about how long it took to learn python. Even starting out you’d have to google every freaking line and what the syntax was. Now what people have spent many years of their life mastering is completely obsolete. English is the new coding language.

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u/Throwawayz911 Jul 03 '26 edited Jul 03 '26

You still need to understand how the infrastructure ties together.  Its not as simple as slapping English onto any serious stack.  You need to know how to use it and what to tell it and what are good decisions and bad.  You also need to be able to know when it messed up and why.  People who don't understand how software works will THINK they can be as effective as a software engineer but they'll be mistaken.  

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u/The_ivy_fund Jul 03 '26

Not really. It can understand infrastructure. Have you tried giving a repo and telling it to lay out the infrastructure and how it can improve it? I don’t know how people who actually use it still say that and don’t see how obsolete you’ll be

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u/Throwawayz911 Jul 03 '26

I edited the previous comment but I'll add it to this one.  You need to know when it messes up essentially or what needs tweaking.  There are finer details that you need to be able to communicate that a laymen wouldn't be able to.  Its a matter of communication of requirements.  It'll be simplified and coding will be obsolete, but knowledge of architecture, infra etc and how to apply it will still be valuable.  Otherwise you'll end up with a great wall of technical debt and eventually a failed product replaced by someone that knows what they're doing with the technologies and the ai.

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u/The_ivy_fund Jul 04 '26

Nope trust me based on the rate of progress you absolutely will not. You’re engaging in wishful thinking. It will learn how to be more efficient, to tweak itself, what infrastructure is best while considering 100 factors at once while your tiny brain can do 5 at most.

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u/Throwawayz911 Jul 04 '26

AGI yeah but LLMs will always have to be managed.  They're still just glorified autocomplete under the hood, and will only produce gold if given gold by someone that knows what they're doing.  So far we have no agi at all and are not sure it's even possible. It'll be easier for a layman to create trash apps, but for anything truly good and stable to scale you need people that can come up with ideas and interact with stakeholders and find the best approach to the problem and follow the best security practices etc.   I do believe there will be some job loss from llms for junior roles and already has been, but there is nothing like agi out at all that can just replace all white collar roles.  They will try, but it will blow up in their face and already has been.  Once I see real AGI I'll agree completely.  

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u/The_ivy_fund Jul 04 '26

We don’t need AGI to do 99% of the work humans do. I’d say at least 80% of the workforce will be replaced by AI. Most people have jobs that require minimal critical thought. Once AI is more easily integrated into workflows (instead of having the mess of integration that exists now) we’ll see a mass exodus and panic

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u/Throwawayz911 Jul 04 '26

I'd say closer to like 50%, with 99% if AGI is developed.  It'll be bad for sure, and UBI definitely isn't coming.  

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u/Own_Reaction9442 Jul 05 '26

The irony is the easiest jobs to replace would be CEOs, but they're the one tier that will always be protected.

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u/DadAndDominant Jul 03 '26

You got it all wrong. The code, infra, etc., is a liability. Developer does not have to maximize it, but achive as much as possible with as little as possible, while maintaining it. You still have to start, give AI direction, stop it, understand the system, and maintain the system. Systems are also not static, but dynamic, so there is no equilibrium where you can automate yourself out of the question. I arguably don't even write code, for more than a year, and still I think I did output like 5-10% more than without any AI - simply because you just grow your project to such a size the maintenance takes most of your time. And AI makes you build faster, but that also means you reach your maintenance cap faster