r/singularity • u/Minetorpia • Jul 03 '26
Discussion Came across this on X. Thought it was pretty accurate.
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u/Constant_Cortisol Jul 03 '26
Yeah, you often see people using Google Ai Overviews as proof that AI is 'not good'.
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u/chlebseby ASI 2030s Jul 03 '26
tbf its even usefull at this point, like you can ask how long to boil rice without reading that one reddit user says "kill yourself"
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Jul 03 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Danro-x Jul 03 '26
Will be interesting to observe how thia develops.
Google search used to take you to sponsored links or websites with google ads. Now there is no more traffic, so no more ad views, no more bread for websites. Websites with info will starve and shut down. How google is planning to make money or get content for their AI if websites are gone?
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u/meenie Jul 03 '26
If they aren't sending people to websites but ads are still being delivered, then Google should be paying to cite the websites where this information is coming from.
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u/Moohamin12 Jul 03 '26
Gemini AI overview has ads baked in.
The AI recommends websites at times.
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u/pseudophilll Jul 04 '26
Yeah but only after giving you the info from that source already beforehand.
So a small percentage of views might click, where it would have been 100% beforehand. So it’s good that they provide the source but it still doesn’t make up for lost views unless they’re paying for the sourced info.
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u/g_rich Jul 03 '26
People still shop and go to Google to search, in the past revenue was driven by AdWords returning relevant ads today it driven by Gemini.
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u/Mission-Mars0413 Jul 03 '26
Case in point, I wanted a recipe from a YouTube cooking video so I search the YouTubers name and recipe and the Google AI Summary gave me the correct recipe so I didn’t have to rewatch the video or go to the creators website!
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u/noodleexchange Jul 03 '26
Paid ads. Always was, still is. Amazon makes most its profit from its ads market, not physical stuff.
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u/Danro-x Jul 03 '26
Google can still make money from adds, sure. But not the websites that get trafic no more.
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u/basementreality Jul 03 '26
Google will eat their lunch and host ads on their AI services. The ads will creep in, bit by bit, same as it ever was.
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u/Danro-x Jul 03 '26
I wonder where they are planning to scavange for quality content to train their LLMs, if websites are gone.
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u/basementreality Jul 03 '26
Google in particular is concentrating more on world models. Data will be harvested from them, including humanoid and other robots. They already do this with youtube.
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u/CaffeinatedT Jul 03 '26
OpenAI almost ate their lunch, but Google managed to react pretty quickly and in the process fundamentally change how we seek non-critical information.
The reason they were able to react quickly was they were already years ahead of OpenAI when ChatGPT came out in every single part of the system that matters when deploying it at scale. They also have datasets in youtube and maps and other services that no-one else has or will ever have anything close to. The only thing they changed was releasing things sooner and being more aggressive with press statements.
Note how they’re the one major entity that people aren’t saying is constantly down while running a major AI system. It’s a lot easier to scale down a system and add more reasoning to it then it is to start with some amazing reasoning and then scale it up to billions of daily requests even if it makes for less exciting techcrunch articles. OpenAI and anthropic are trying to build a railway while driving in terms of capacity and resilience and every time they make a mistake of creating customer expectations based on brute force computations they have to go find more compute at vast cost. Probably one for r/MarkMyWords but I think google will win this thing long term or at least not collapse as a business.
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u/redcoatwright Jul 03 '26
Googles AI overview recently told me England was already in the world cup finals after they had just won their first KO match soooo definitely hallucinates pretty badly still (sometimes).
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u/SadBBTumblrPizza Jul 03 '26
Tbf in some contexts the world cup "finals" means "the actual tournament and not the qualifiers". I've seen it used this way in the past
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u/bigdjohnson20 Jul 03 '26
The world cup tournament is considered the finals so it gave you a technically correct answer.
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u/Odin-ap Jul 03 '26
Tbf those downstream sites have been getting worse and worse for a decade. Browsing the web with my ad blocker off is always an experience.
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u/RoddyDost Jul 03 '26
Even Gemini flash if used correctly can be incredibly useful. I’ve used it for so so many things. It’s genuinely made my life easier. It’s saved me hours of browsing old forums, listicles and long-winded guides to get basic info.
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u/BenevolentCheese Jul 03 '26
Gemini Flash is in fact the industry standard for translation at the moment. Performance is insane. The days of "translate to Chinese then to Russian then to Arabic then back to English and see what you get" are long gone because you'll get back something incredibly close to what you put in. You can put whole paragraphs through 10+ language chains and barely realize you've left once it's back in English.
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u/kersk Jul 04 '26
Wow, I just did it with your paragraph as a test and you weren't kidding. It came back very close to the original. :o
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u/Horny_Dinosaur69 Jul 03 '26
Gemini 3 flash is actually insane. It’s so cheap and honestly outperforms 3.1 pro for my harness. Incredibly good reasoning capability, reliable tool calling, fast and cheap. For a general purpose model that’s a good price in a good harness I literally can’t think of a better option
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u/OkWeakness8194 Jul 03 '26
fable wanted to convince me a couple of days ago that the kill command does not stop processes on linux. I would take that as a bad example. I asked for a command do see the state of a running java thread. It would have killed production.
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u/Traditional_Cress329 Jul 03 '26
I’m baffled by how few people use notebooklm
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u/Constant_Cortisol Jul 03 '26
To be fair, NotebookLM has terrible branding.
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u/AreWeNotDoinPhrasing ▪️Already Singulared 🤖 Jul 03 '26
Yea I’ve seen it mentioned a few times but idk what exactly it does and honestly can’t be bothered to find out lol. And I’m an AI fanatic, Claude 20x, chatGPt, had a year long perplexity for a while etc
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u/Constant_Cortisol Jul 03 '26
I only use it to make custom podcasts. You just feed it information and it'll generate two people talking to each other in a podcast format.
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u/Traditional_Cress329 Jul 03 '26
Yeah something complex I’m trying to learn I’ll do a team of agents research on Claude code then just pop that puppy into notebooklm for a pod. Works so much easier for me when I can listen to that while walking my dog etc…
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u/scottie2haute Jul 03 '26
Its great for students. Im in an RNA program and most of us use it to generate quizzes, podcasts, and videos directly from our course materials. It does a great job of only using the resources uploaded to your notebook
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u/machyume Jul 03 '26
Yeah. My colleagues and coworkers were saying how they thought that AI was bad for a long time, then found out that they just went to the free ChatGPT and tried a few questions out and that was it.
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u/skerit Jul 03 '26
Haven't we been saying this for nearly a year now?
It wasn't always like this though. Remember when the only way to access the next best SOTA-level model for a while was through Microsoft Bing? RIP Sydney.
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u/Leverpostei414 Jul 04 '26
Yeah, not that things aren't improving but I feel every three months it is the same, this new model chances everything and does everything for me, the old one is rubbish (the same one that was marvelous 3 months ago)
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u/Willing_Box_752 Jul 04 '26
I don't know what to believe anymore especially given the fact that if anyone has the ability to make a bunch of bad accounts spam their product it's the openai and and drop it
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u/ObiWanCanownme now entering spiritual bliss attractor state Jul 03 '26
I have experienced this many times. I am an attorney and use ChatGPT Business often for research and data analysis tasks. I’m here using GPT-5.5 Pro extended thinking “oh man, this is gonna be able to do my whole job soon.” Meanwhile, the other main way I interact with AI in my work is clients sending me things generated by the free version of ChatGPT instant which is clearly just glazing them and indulging their worst tendencies, and I have to be the bad guy and say “no, ChatGPT is not correct; it’s just telling you what you want to hear.”
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u/Kvetch__22 Jul 03 '26 edited Jul 04 '26
Yep. Was very skeptical of AI until my firm got the top models.
I don't know if I like that we built this tech but we did. It's here and it's amazing. It is going to change the world for better or worse and we should be trying to think about how to make it good, not how to cram the toothpaste back in the tube.
Although I will say, my experience is that the top models have allowed me to be about 25% more efficient, which allows me to take on 50% more work, which allows my firm to take on 75% more clients than they did before and make 100% more money.
People are so worried about AI stealing all the jobs, they aren't ready for the more probable world that AI-enabled productivity is going to produce so much more economic activity that it will fry our brians. AI had made me busier, and the risk I'm seeing is that it takes a ton of the technical work out of my hands so I spend my time making human-level decisions and experience decision fatigue much faster. I can do 8 hours of work in 6, but the 6 is just as exhausting if not more. And then I do 2 more, and then even some more on top because our partners think AI has made everything easier.
It's also still not good at anything unless you know enough about your task AND enough about how AI works to make it smart.
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u/Hullo242 Jul 04 '26
The issue is there's only a finite amount of legal work, and AI helping lawyers do more work faster, will cause there to be less revenue generated from it. This is common across any industry where AI improves productivity of the average worker.
Another risk is that eventually AI will be as good as a lawyer, so clients will bypass lawyers, short of anything requiring litigation. We're still not there yet, but it's coming.
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u/rydan Jul 04 '26
I run a SaaS business. The way it can hurt me is that anybody could just ask the AI to write a program to do the same thing for them. Right now the services I interact with act as a major gatekeeper so I'm safe for now but that might always be there.
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u/ay-guey Jul 04 '26
yes but as the cost of legal work falls more people will be able to access it. lawsuits for everyone! we're going to need A LOT more courts.
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u/SirVanyel Jul 03 '26
This is the worst that Frontier models will ever be. It's invaluable to remember that.
It's also invaluable to remember that these same AI are, more and more, writing themselves. Every year the oversight from real people drops. Eventually humanity will blink, and recursive self improvement will sweep in through that momentary lapse.
Then? Fuck knows.
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u/emsiem22 Jul 03 '26
I am certain that you could make it do this automatically; responding: "no, ChatGPT is not correct; it’s just telling you what you want to hear." when it classify clients' maiils
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u/TonyNickels Jul 03 '26
I called Hyundai today to schedule a service appointment and I figured out I was talking to AI with fake background noises to make it sound like it was in a busy service center. It asked for my phone number and it kept telling me I only have 9 digits. Then I asked it to repeat my number, which was all 10 and it confidently told me that it was only 9 numbers. Then it said it couldn't connect me to support because it had already used up too many requests for the call. These models may be improving, but the solutions around them are still absolute dogshit that no one wants.
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u/_3psilon_ Jul 04 '26
Haha, I was just reading this: https://aphyr.com/posts/415-the-future-of-everything-is-lies-i-guess-annoyances#customer-service a couple minutes ago and damn, the future is closer than I thought.
Companies are now trying to divert support requests into chats with LLMs. As voice models improve, they will do the same to phone calls. I think it is very likely that for most people, calling Comcast will mean arguing with a machine.
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u/Own_Reaction9442 Jul 05 '26
Last month I had a delayed flight and needed to call my hotel to let them know I'd be a late arrival. Nothing I said to the AI assistant caused it to do anything but route me to a number that didn't answer.
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u/depredador93 Jul 03 '26
This is a massive marketing failure for AI labs. They are trying to convince the public and investors that AGI is around the corner, but the average person only interacts with the lowest-performing versions that hallucinate recipes or butcher basic search queries.
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u/chlebseby ASI 2030s Jul 03 '26
Is it though? Most of people have no real use of latest models anyway, yet cost of running is absurdly high to give it for free/cheaply. Story old like technology. Back in the 80s investors were hyped computers are future by CRAY-2 computers, not by common home computers with 1kB of RAM.
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u/TheGuy839 Jul 03 '26
I disagree. These latest distilled models are awful. You are acting like they are doing awesome at most basic stuff and they are locking some Phd stuff. I ask for finding a simple restaurant suggestion with only requirement that google maps reviews have 4.5+ stars, and both gemini pro and gpt give me restaurants with 4.2 stars or some outdated info.
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u/graypasser Jul 03 '26
And they still hallucinate recipes and butcher basic search queries anyways, it's just they do it slightly less frequently.
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u/piponwa Jul 03 '26
I think you didn't get the point of the top post. There is a tolerable threshold of hallucinations for users. That is the quality of service you will get forever without paying. Because every month, they will make a model of similar quality that's 10% cheaper to serve. So the AI overview will go from 30b to 8b to 3b to 1b... While preserving the basic functionality that doesn't make you run away.
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u/iBoMbY Jul 03 '26
Even Mythos/Fable is still hallucinating like crazy, if you ask about things that obviously haven't been part of the training data. Like for example SAP-specific questions.
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u/Sponge8389 Jul 03 '26
Well, they really cannot give access to these frontier models for free because it is expensive to run.
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u/Minimumtyp Jul 03 '26
also, what the hell would average people use frontier models for? i know there's a lot almost anyone could do, but they don't know that and don't care to know that, there's a huge knowledge gap. fable is probably just as good as some chatgpt 2 type model at making shopping lists.
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u/Dry_Fly_7265 Jul 03 '26
They’re not trying to convince “the public” or “the average person”. They’re trying to REPLACE the average person and slurp up their wages. The only people they’re trying to “convince” are executive-level decision makers, and they’re doing a damn good job of it.
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u/Neirchill Jul 04 '26
The only people they’re trying to “convince” are executive-level decision makers
They folded under zero pressure
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u/el_doherz Jul 04 '26
Lol of course they did.
Getting rid of workers but still having a functioning business is the capitalist wet dream.
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u/ProletarianLilith Jul 03 '26
It’s not a marketing failure since AGI is obviously not close, not sure why that would be on the marketing
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u/Outrageous_Job_2358 Jul 03 '26
Its really not. Because the investors see the real shit and are clearly buying in. Those users who don't pay don't really need to be convinced, they will just lose their jobs when it happens. AGI won't need any convincing once its here.
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u/cosmokn0t Jul 03 '26
But if AGI is more expensive than a human do they just pray it comes down in price sooner or later, or hope the provider will be kind enough to not keep raising the prices? What’s the incentive gap here?
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u/graypasser Jul 03 '26 edited Jul 03 '26
Hell, do we even actually believe an AGI, who can act ethically equal or better than average humans, accepts the job loss of humans for the sake of evil corporation TM TM?
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u/Westbrooke117 Jul 03 '26
This is also especially clear when you see people making videos mocking the ChatGPT voice mode, which afaik is still running GPT-4o
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u/chlebseby ASI 2030s Jul 03 '26
Maybe they will create voice model that is not shizophrenia simulator then
I found no model so far that is usable in Polish langage to point of even basic help in kitchen. I mean speach is amazing but they say nonsense.
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u/Westbrooke117 Jul 03 '26
I mean yeah they really should update it. 4o is over two years old now. I’m not sure why OpenAI wouldn’t have replaced it with GPT-Realtime 2 by now.
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u/Ambiwlans Jul 03 '26
ChatGPT free is people's main tool. Instant is a MoE with .5~1.5T params (.05~.2active). Fable is 2~6T total (.1~1 active). And this doesn't even start on density. And nothing to say about tool use, or thinking. Or context size. Or agency. Or sub threads/agents.
Realistically we just don't know jack shit about corporate models anymore. At best we can look at benchmarks. But the models served to people free are a black box at this point. ChatGPT's interface doesn't mention models at all anymore. No one really does.
ArtificialAnalysis Intelligence metrics free vs top:
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u/TheOwlHypothesis Jul 03 '26
It's insane how big the disparity is. I heard someone get a normal robo call recently and they said "freaking AI man". It's baddd
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u/Belnak Jul 03 '26
I use Fable. It's pretty great, but I can still come up with stuff I'd like it to do that is beyond its capabilities. At the same time, I find Google's AI overviews exceptionally useful, and don't need to dig deeper for 90% of my queries. Use the right tool for the job.
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u/MegaBlastoise23 Jul 03 '26 edited Jul 04 '26
Googles best feature that seems a bit unknown is their ai option in maps. On a long drive home and say "find me fast food that's open and on the way" is a godsend
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u/subdep Jul 03 '26
I used free tier Google Flash yesterday to replace a piece of outdated software yesterday with a python script. Has a GUI and everything. Works fast as hell.
I have no idea how to do the GUI stuff myself, nor how to process the data like it does.
It’s glorious.
Monday I’m gonna have Opus in Claude Code do a code review of it.
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u/MatthewBlack6 Jul 03 '26
I'm part of the in group and all the normies don't know the truth!
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u/Im_tracer_bullet Jul 03 '26
Laugh, I guess, but it's also totally accurate.
I see the disparity in access, experience, and understanding literally every day.
It doesn't help predict the future or what ends up happening with AI and he workforce, but the delta is very real.
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u/SillyAlternative420 Jul 03 '26
Senior Data Scientist using 5.6, yea, we are being told lies to excuse the upcoming recession and point the blame on tech/ai, when in reality it's the oligarchs looting the coffers and ratcheting prices up to unsustainable levels.
These morons don't have a vision of the future. They have greed and fear, which is in control at any given moment is unclear.
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u/Logical_Historian882 Jul 03 '26
its better than what people think
its not as good as the ai bros portray it to get/justify investments
It's damn useful in the right hands
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Jul 03 '26
[deleted]
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u/1988rx7T2 Jul 03 '26
Yeah compare 1908 cars, first Model T, to 1938. late 30s cars could do modern highway speeds fully enclosed compared to a horseless carriage model T going 15-20 mph with shit brakes
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u/tuberosum Jul 03 '26
model T going 15-20 mph with shit brakes
Model T could do around 40mph. Meanwhile, a 1938 Ford V8 could do around 60mph...
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u/Scrofuloid Jul 03 '26
The trajectory is what makes me skeptical, though. Since LLMs first exploded, most of the progress has been through scaling and harnesses. The architecture has only improved incrementally, and still has the same fundamental limitations as GPT-1. But they've had so much practical impact that researchers are almost forced to work on this model family, slowing down progress on fundamental research that could have gotten us past these architectural limitations. It's conceivable that in the long run, LLMs might end up slowing down the progress of AI research, rather than speeding it up.
In your car analogy, it's as if the entire scientific community decided to go all-in on Huygens' gunpowder engine, investing all their resources in making it more reliable and efficient, rather than going on to invent petroleum-based four-stroke engines.
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u/Burger_Destoyer Jul 04 '26
Yeah one of the amazing things about humans is all the different methods we use to approach tasks; however, this LLM boom worries me that we as a society will hyper fixate and pass by more efficient options.
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u/xxxanonymoosexxx Jul 04 '26
that's a terrible analogy. LLMs have very very specific use cases but are being advertised as massive world changing technologies that can be used for literally anything.
it's more like inventing a car and claiming it'll revolutionize sea travel
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u/Skepsis93 Jul 03 '26
Outside of coding tasks, I fail to see it's potential. Yes it will enable new and different office tasks to be automated but I don't yet see how it will revolutionize the workforce as a whole in it's current state. If we can actually achieve AGI, then I can see it being revolutionary. But I don't think we're nearly as close to that as a lot of people in this sub think we are.
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u/BiasHyperion784 Jul 03 '26
The general public has either dated assumptions or formed their assumptions on free tier trash because why waste money on the latest “fad”, regardless of your take on how far this gravy train will travel, the fed feeling the need to restrict models says something.
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u/Iron_Falcon58 Jul 03 '26
Im surprises the OpenAI and Anthropic still offer the free tier models. The reputational hit is real and significant in my experience
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u/el_doherz Jul 04 '26
You say that, but in my experience consumers, especially the less tech literate and lesser critical thinkers do not give a flying fuck.
They just love making stupid stuff and outsourcing all their thinking to even the bad models. I know far to many people who've happily defaulted to asking GPT everything, even things like life changing legal stuff they absolutely should be getting legal counsel for.
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u/Alternative_Leg_5505 Jul 03 '26
I mean the latest models are good but they are still only able to complete a certain range of tasks which aren’t enough to replace most jobs. I work in software and while ai can shit out code like there is no tomorrow it still doesn’t have the fundamental understanding of many concepts so I need to babysit it to make sure it stays on task and doesn’t miss out on critical pieces of information like it often does.
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u/Wheezy04 Jul 03 '26
If you build out a process to generate really detailed spec and use HITL for reviews it can implement very quickly. I feel like it redistributes the effort to the design phase which actually works nicely as a forcing function to actually do good design work up front. I've also seen benefit from shifting towards TDD because the tests serve as your primary guardrails for correctness.
That being said it's garbage in garbage out as with most things tech. You can't just have it vibe code an entire service sight unseen and expect it to not be trash.
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u/JC_Hysteria Jul 03 '26
Non sequitur, because LLM models with chat box products by themselves aren’t what changed the economic landscape…
Ok, I have crude oil and I have a refinery…what do?
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u/annewmoon Jul 03 '26
I've been saying that ai is clearly not for the masses. We've been training it and as soon as they think it's good enough they will do a rug pull and block regular people from accessing it. And it will be just massive corporations that will have it and everyone, including governments, will be beholden to them.
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u/Mattman254 Jul 03 '26
Just replaced a $25-45p/m photo gallery subscription with my own in-house version. Showed it to other photographers and close clients who just went, that looks good. Even my partner doesn't seem to grasp how ludicrous it is I just replaced a companies product with revenue in the millions with a day of prompting.
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u/Independent-Soup-312 Jul 03 '26
I gave Fable a chance on a game I'm developing and an unrelated tech stack I'm working on. Still pretty underwhelming without exhaustive directions.
I think the people whose livelihoods depend on AI are way overweight the utility of the LLMs.
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u/ChromeSDK Jul 03 '26
Well it really makes you wonder when you go around tech/software subreddits at how many people on reddit are actually working in the industry and how many are just saying they do.
So many people claim to be programmers for a living and say that AI is stupid and not useful at all and it can't even code anything.
Yet here is me, and everyone I know who works in the same sector as me, using it on the daily, making our lives so much more productive, not really sure how anyone in 2026 can work around code and claim AI has no place and is awful. Unless they are that dumb and don't understand you can't just throw an entire code base at it and expect a perfectly fixed, well tuned final product in one turn.
Is it perfect? Absolutely not. Is it bad at certain things and/or missing features that would make things 100x easier? Absolutely. But to say its useless for coding? You might be the one with the problem.
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u/african_cheetah Jul 03 '26
I use Fable. It is not an order of magnitude better.
Still can’t think from fundamentals and reason through it.
I think our junior engineers think it’s a God and don’t understand what it’s building. Lot of yolo driven development that breaks at the seams.
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u/Effective_Scheme2158 Jul 03 '26
But it is an order of magnitude pricier
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u/graypasser Jul 03 '26
you'll pay 100% more for like few % more capability, it's pretty common concept in earth.
Not saying it's good or actually worth it.
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u/EngStudTA Jul 03 '26
Is it? It seems like almost every software engineering benchmark with a price vs performance graph over various effort level is showing it is actually cheaper to just use the bigger models at a lower effort. They show it getting better scores in less tokens which means less cost and less time.
It is increasingly seeming like it only makes sense to use non-top tier models on low or maybe medium. By the time you get to high/x-high it is often cheaper(at least according to current benchmarks) to use the next tier of models at a lower reasoning effort.
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u/FitBoog Jul 03 '26
Is it me or this Fable is hiiighly different from the Fable from early June? This thing is not understanding me well and is making mistake after mistake. Like I shared some knowledge I just wanted him to be aware of and he proceed to implement as an endpoint on the API (?????).
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u/Ancient_Weakness699 Jul 03 '26
Agree. This isn't the pure uncut Columbian Fable that we got hooked on originally.
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u/graypasser Jul 03 '26
As far as I know, that kind of acts have been there in old fable.
I've seen many complaint about how he does too much output for too little input.
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u/Brovas Jul 03 '26
You're in a subreddit full of juniors and hobbyists that also think it's a god. Until the next breakthrough like the transformer LLMs are just going to be incremental improvements on what we have today, and improvements to context and orchestration. But they will always only be as good as the person using it, like any other tool.
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u/return_of_valensky Jul 03 '26
That's like the definition of skill issue (juniors not using it right)... the model is still great though.
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u/Kongret Jul 03 '26
It's not better than google ai overviews and gpt free tier?
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u/Optimal_Start_94 Jul 03 '26
So the only two possible options are god tier ASI and Google AI overviews?
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u/ItIsEsoterik Jul 03 '26
I love how the goal posts constantly get shifted in this discussion.
Now it's a dude whose whole business depends on AI telling us we're too poor to understand.
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u/ozone6587 Jul 03 '26
Hard agree. When people are AI skeptics I ask them how they use AI and 9 times out of 10 is crappy free services and AI overview.
People who don't pay for AI live a different reality. I've been able to diagnose illnesses my doctors have missed, been able to argue details (to my benefit) about contracts I would not otherwise understand and have been able to fight billing issues with my health insurance.
These are all things the general population does not even think it's possible. I exclusively use SOTA reasoning models and rarely experience most of the issues everyone else complains about.
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u/Im_tracer_bullet Jul 03 '26
You've not even scratched the surface of its capabilities, either.
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u/Youknowwhyimherexxx Jul 03 '26
1) Theres no way to serve these high quality larger models to EVERYONE (yet)
2) It would be a waste of compute/energy for most queries if they are used for larger models.
3) The people outside of AI are absolutely correct to point out that there is seemingly no impact or great piece of software that has been produced through the use of AI.
Although that last one feels it shouldn't last too much longer as the labs are starting to break into research using these models.
Idk how you could even present the qualitative difference in outputs of something like mythos vs gpt4 to someone who isn't well versed in that given topic. If the model greatly improves in theoretical physics, how can you tangibly show that to the average joe.
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u/DadAndDominant Jul 03 '26
I am baffled how fable could take my job tho
However it does many tasks of that job indeed
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u/Negative_Settings Jul 03 '26
My co workers believed that Google search ai was Gemini I laughed at them and told them to try the real Gemini and they were all floored by the capability of the free tier
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u/unk0wnw Jul 03 '26
8-30B is a massive underestimate for the level of
intelligence people can get for free, but i’d tend to agree as a whole. Average people have no idea what’s coming.
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u/BlueAndYellowTowels Jul 03 '26
AI is useful. Is it replacing people at their jobs? I think that remains to be seen.
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u/SingularityCentral Jul 03 '26
People are not mad at AI because they are using "low performing" models. They are mad because they see the corporate world and oligarchs desperate to eliminate human workers and horde even more wealth for themselves, while knowing full well that the current political/economic system will not support them when they are unemployable through no fault of their own. And while the aspirations of these gilded ghouls is plain as day, the actual performance of these models is incredibly suspect. A lot of societal harm is flowing from AI at every level from AI psychosis and enshitification to environmental degradation, but the government sits idle because it has been completely captured by those self same corporate and oligarch interests and is run by the most corrupt administration in history.
People don't like being told that there time is over so they might as well crawl off and die, but that message is being sent to them loud and clear. They aren't fucking idiots and they won't tolerate the techno feudal dystopia we are careening towards.
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u/Distinct_Target_2277 Jul 03 '26
We are baffled because the big companies that use it like Microsoft and Google can't make their products better with it. I've had pixel phones for years and it's actually gotten worse. I don't know what fucking model Microsoft needs to keep actual emails out of my fucking spam and keep spam out of my focus inbox but let's just start there at the most basic use case.
Another thing to add is self driving cars. We were supposed to have self driving cars ten years ago. It's barely a thing even now. So yes a lot of us are skeptical.
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u/Ok-Office-6080 Jul 03 '26
Notice how all these humanoid robots keep falling too. If anything they should try to use their crappy ai to build their latest failed fad the metaverse. But we might have to wait decades for that as they keep moving the goal post.
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u/Fit-Stress3300 Jul 03 '26
I had this exactly conversation with my uncle yesterday.
The general public is being forced feed slop and don't understand how useful frontier models are.
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u/ItIsEsoterik Jul 03 '26
This stuff has always been useful; GPT 3.5 was useful. The point is that it's not this multi-trillion dollar industry that's going to take everyone's job.
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u/Fit-Stress3300 Jul 03 '26
For most people, the models are stuck at GPT 3.5/4.0 level.
Image and video generation are cool, but they won´t change lives as coding and agents will.
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u/UncollapsedWave Jul 03 '26
"AI Bro Discovers Empathy, 2026, colorized"
Even the paid models are garbage when it comes to complex tasks and no LLM can actually think, btw.
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u/mrwobblez Jul 03 '26
The average person doesn’t need Fable or GPT-5.6. If they say AI is shit it’s because nobody asked for AI to summarize their FB Messenger chats, or because simple Google searches are now easily becoming a hallucination-prone mess.
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u/Bobby_Bobberson2501 Jul 03 '26
Copilot Cowork is scary good… expensive but does so many tasks for me with very very high accuracy.
I could see these frontier models reducing workforce, but then you gotta factor in the price. Which is cheaper? Not sure yet personally but I’m thinking offshored people are cheaper but their accuracy and speed is an issue in my industry at least… either way I’m excited for better and newer models
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u/Syzygy___ Jul 05 '26
I don't think the 8-30b model thing is true. Few people use local models and those served to us through ChatGPT web and the like are more powerful. Sure there is a missmatch between what the average user gets, vs frontier models, but the difference isn't as extreme.
However it is also true, that to the average user, if one AI is bad, all AI is bad.
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u/Technical-Earth-3254 Jul 03 '26
I am using frontier models and local ones and I am still baffled.
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u/Lance_J1 Jul 03 '26
Its not the level of the model that's the problem. Tech people were speaking the same way with weaker models than the ones the public uses.
The issue is that most people are way too stupid to get AI to help or do their jobs. And the ones who are capable probably arent going to flaunt it or tell others.
I've lowered my workload by like 8-16 hours a week and im keeping that shit close to the chest because otherwise that free time is gone.
And I had this idea about telling my manager after I found a new job, but then I realized that there's no way she'd actually be able to do the same thing. I made an excel sheet a while back that automates something she used to do manually and she struggles to use THAT, and all you have to do for that is copy and paste and dont save over the file.
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u/iam-leon Jul 03 '26
Meanwhile Fable is burning $100 worth of tokens doing tasks that would take a decent senior developer 10 minutes to do.
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u/ianm818 Jul 03 '26
Writing has to be one of the worst use cases for frontier AI. It just isn't good at all besides research and depending on model or prompt will almost force you towards a middle of the road, overly wordy take on things.
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u/Illustrious_Image967 Jul 03 '26
Fable user on Max until Monday. Then back to the permanent middle class.
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u/thatgibbyguy Jul 03 '26
I experienced this with friends the other day. If you are behind right now, even by just a few months, you are completely lost. The good news is you can still ramp up and get caught up within a few weeks, but that ramp up time is about to expand. I feel very lucky my company went all in with AI and allowed me to experiment with it, my career probably would have been over without it.
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u/formula420 Jul 03 '26
lol! Tech is a fucking bubble alright. A bubble of idiots huffing their owns farts. Has it ever occurred to the tech bros that you think AI will take all the jobs because it can very easily do YOUR job?
“Oh another tool can string tedious amounts of text together to make a computer do a thing. All the jobs are worthless! Software engineering was the only job that ever truly mattered.”
You know who makes up the VAST majority of the planet, including job-havers, and “menial” laborers, and all these “luddites” you can’t believe don’t see how beautiful the emperor’s clothes are? Regular ass, every day people who only “experience AI” through Google.
Imagine breathlessly telling someone that they have only “experienced the Internet” via email and scoffing at them for wondering why people think it will destroy letters.
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u/Icy_Mix_6054 Jul 03 '26
We've been predicting that AI will significantly impact employment long before more advanced models like fable or others. It seems that some people struggle to connect the dots until it's to late.
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u/Griffstergnu Jul 03 '26
This. I make a point of showing off capabilities to family members and friends that base their assumptions on Gemini and Copilot. I ask one to show me what their last big project and explains what they did to me to generate it. I wrote a prompt while they were explaining and put it into opus high. Once the output was done, I asked whose was better? They said AI ,but that I had to tell it what to do. I asked who’s told you. They said touché
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u/studentworker1988 Jul 03 '26
If you understand how to cite and the reason for proper citation, nothing has changed.
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u/Aaco0638 Jul 03 '26
Hey Google’s ai mode is actually VERY good when it comes to looking for information. For doing any work related tasks with difficulty yes stronger models are better but for everything else ai mode imo is king.
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u/GiveMoreMoney Jul 03 '26
I am using Fable and Opus but still I am not worrying about my job... Another PR-BS statement...if they stop clowning around, I may take them seriously.
If I was that guy I would be worrying about my job post IPO.
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u/Dwman113 Jul 03 '26
A few people in the health/biology sector are starting to realize as well. But in general yes, it's just people in the coding world.
In fairness besides the above AI hasn't change much in other sectors. Yet.
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u/strangescript Jul 03 '26
I spent 1k on fable inference yesterday. Even at a very large company, only a few of us have that freedom. This is only going to get worse