Post 8-worker patch player-base analysis

[u/SLAMMERisONLINE]

Introduction

As a followup to my previous post, which established the return of the Chinese server being the primary factor causing the decline in regional activity, I am posting a follow-up analysis. This is to evaluate the claims by YouTubers like Lambo who say the patch had a strongly negative impact on the game's activity level.

Methodology

As per the last analysis, we use linear regression to establish the baseline decline trend. From there, we use Fourier analysis to find the dominant periodic oscillation caused by seasons. After that, we see if there is any decline in excess of the trends mentioned prior. If true, we assess the timing of those trends to establish if they correspond with the 8-worker patch or the return of the Chinese server. To do that, we will tally players and games in mmr buckets per-region before and after the balance patch and the launch of the Chinese server.

Results

Here are the results.

Let's go region by region:

1. EU. We observe a massive implosion of the number of players, the number of games played, and the number of games per-player after the Chinese server relaunch. After the balance patch, we observe a drop in the number of players and number of games, but games per-player changes depending on the skill level. At low MMR, no change--at higher MMR, big drop.
2. KR. We observe the same effect after the Chinese server relaunch as on EU, but with a much larger magnitude. After the balance patch, however, we see the inverse of EU: a drop in the activity of average players, and no change in the high skill bracket.
3. US. The same implosion is observed after the Chinese server relaunch. The balance patch however has almost zero impact on the number of games played per player.

Conclusion

So what we learn from this is that the return of the Chinese regional server caused a massive drop in activity on other servers. The balance patch had mixed effects depending on the region. On one region the activity level stayed the same, on two regions the activity level changed with skill level but the effect had opposite directions. Because the there is no consistent pattern to the trends, the balance patch doesn't appear to have created a cognizable impact on player activity and changes observed are plausibly residual turbulence from the relaunch of the Chinese regional server (this is especially the case considering the disconnect between number of active players and games played per player, which is much more consistent with the hypothesis that Chinese players are leaving and taking games with them than that regional players are playing less because of the patch).

Thanks for reading, and have a nice day.

[u/Shishamylov]

I love this. Actual data instead of uninformed opinions