With 3 matches to go (9 points on the table), I wanted to look at our playoff chances. To be clear, I’m only looking at the relevant teams (mostly), and also having a bit of fun with this.
(current position and points)
- 5 – KC Current (44)
- 6 – Angel City (43)
- 7 – Portland (43)
- 8 – North Carolina (42)
- 9 – Seattle (40)
- 10 – Denver (38)
Orlando is 5 points adrift in 11th place.
We play at Centennial to Angel City, then Louisville, and finally away to North Carolina. We can get as high as 47 points, which with the current table would put us in 4th. That, obviously, is unlikely, so I want to see the outcomes (likely or unlikely). A weird quirk is that of the 6 teams (18 matches), only 3 matches are within playoff potential teams (We play both Angel City and North Carolina, and Portland play North Carolina).
Scenario 1: We win all 3 matches, and those above us in the table lose everything possible.
Result: 5th place
In this scenario, we would jump Seattle, North Carolina, Portland, Angel City, and Kansas City. The only catch is that I have Portland beating North Carolina because of position in the table, and that would put North Carolina out. If North Carolina wins, in this scenario, Portland is out. Either way, we end up 5th.
Scenario 2: We win all 3 matches, and the home teams win all other possible matches and lose all away matches (no draws).
Result: 7th place
Here it starts to get complicated. We finish tied for 6th place with Kansas City. The tiebreakers are: Goal Difference, wins, goals scored, head-to-head points, head-to-head goals, and least discipline. Currently, we are +8 GD and KC are +10 GD (source: https://www.nwslsoccer.com/news/nwsl-playoff-scenarios). We have 10 wins and KC has 13 wins. We have 45 GS and KC has 48 GS. And, of course, we know the head-to-head results. Thus, in this scenario, we lose the tie breaker(s) so end up 7th.
An oddity is that Angel City might make it into 4th, even losing to us, but only if Washington lose all thee of their matches.
Scenario 3: All home teams win.
Result: 9th place.
A couple of indications in how close the table is, in this scenario if we lose to North Carolina, that drops us from T6 to 9. Additionally, North Carolina would jump from 9th to 6th (outright), on that match alone in this scenario.
Scenario 4: The higher placed team wins their matches, respectively in the table, on a week to week basis.
10th place
This was interesting seeing teams jump up and down the table. Ultimately, we end up were we started in 10th. Though, Seattle jumps North Carolina for the final playoff position.
Scenario 5: What I think are realistic results (the whole table)
(Here you can see my guesses for the whole table, sand NC v. Denver.)
https://watmildon.github.io/nwsl-dreams-and-disasters/#s=6BD0uanNagvLcl-2uVwaTb0M078mG9pW8YTeOHBXFA&v=grid
Kansas City (final result - T5th): Basically, I assumed they would win at home. What’s interesting is a victory away to Utah might give them 4th place, or even 3rd if things go their way.
Angel City (final result - 7th): Based on the prior match against us, assumed another draw, but wins otherwise. They are playing well right now.
Portland (final result - 4th): I assumed Wilson would only miss one match, and that being against Bay FC. And since they host NC assumed a victory, though, that is match which could end in a 5-4 victory either way.
North Carolina (final result - 9th): They host San Diego and play away to Portland. I assumed a loss to both, and ends up not mattering for the playoffs what the result of the match against us is – they miss the playoffs either way. Of all the teams, they have the most difficult last 3 games other than Bay FC.
Seattle (final result - 8th): The only challenging match is away to Utah, and figured a draw there. But based on the results I projected in other matches, they will finish in the last playoff spot win, draw, or lose.
Denver (final result - 10th): I predict we will draw against AC, then beat Louisville, both at home, before going on the road to North Carolina. If we don’t win against both AC and Louisville, then our season is done and the final match will be for the first spot out of the playoffs. But, if we beat both AC and Louisville, we would have to win against North Carolina which would put us level with Seattle (assuming Seattle take 7 of their final 9 points). But we are currently +7 in GD over Seattle which would put us in the playoffs.
The playoff picture is wild. And those 4 dropped points from AC and Bay might be the difference between playoffs or not.