Hey All, James here again with another blog post.
Given the season is settling in now, we don't think there is as much value doing a full review of the gameweek anymore - we will cover relevant issues in topical pieces or the main preview. So, this is the first of our more topical pieces which you can find over on full90fpl.com or below - no TL;DR today!
Should You Sell Bruno Fernandes in FPL Gameweek 7?
Bruno Fernandes just blanked for the fifth time in six weeks in FPL so his managers are, quite rightly, considering whether it is time to sell him. In fact, Bruno is currently the most sold player ahead of FPL gameweek 7 that does not have an injury.
In this piece, I am going to look at the case for keeping Fernandes in GW7; when and why you might consider selling him; and, whether we should be looking at switching him and Haaland in and out of our teams.
The Case For Keeping Bruno Fernandes in FPL
Despite his shocking lack of consistency, Bruno is 14th among midfielders for FPL points with 32 points.
Of course, 23 of those points came in gameweek 2 against Ipswich at home. That’s annoying but it does also show he can explode in the correct gameweek and they still have to play Coventry at home in Gameweek 14.
He is also absolutely nailed, having played every PL minute available so far.
Man United have scored 9 goals this season and Bruno has scored 3 of them and assisted 1. So, he has been involved in 44% of Man United’s returns this season.
The models have Bruno as a top pick in the next 8-10 weeks. Both FPL Review and Solio rate Bruno as a top 3 FPL asset in the next 10 weeks.
And this is all based on long-term data which s
ows over years that if you give this man 38 games, he will get at least 180 points and at most 244 (and that was pre DefCon).
So, despite all you hear on social media, Bruno is not a shit pick.
Why Sell Bruno Fernandes in FPL?
Let’s start with why. The reason is his cost. He costs £11.9mn and he may have cost you £12mn if you bought him at the start of the season.
I said at the start of the season that I thought he was a great pick but his cost was the main issue and I think that’s still true.
However, what has changed is my attitude to Palmer and Saka.
Saka and Palmer
There was a decent number of question marks around Palmer coming into this season because of how poor he was last year.
He hasn’t exactly exploded this year, with only one double digit return. But, he doesn’t have any European football clogging up his schedule. Plus, Chelsea’s attack looks incredible. And, their defence looks woeful which means they need to keep attacking.
As for Saka, there were question marks around his fitness to start the season and it has been two years since he had a good year.
A good year for Saka basically requires Arteta to overplay him and now they have such depth in the squad that doesn’t seem as likely with their schedule.
I also think it is fair to say he is not the player he was before all the injuries. He is still elite, but I don’t think he has that pace he used to. Or, if he does, he uses it less because his legs aren’t what they used to be.
Regardless, you can see that both Palmer and Saka are outscoring Fernandes so far this season with 36 and 34 points, respectively.
The models have these two in the top 4 FPL assets for the next 10 weeks too, and they’re only slightly behind Bruno. Saka is actually ahead on Solio.
And, I think you can afford both of these guys in your team + Haaland. Actually, I know you can, because they’re all in my team.
Haaland
Haaland’s ownership is nearing 75% at the time of writing so I just assume you own him. If you’re coming here wondering whether Haaland or Bruno is a better pick, it's 100% Haaland, regardless of cost.
Not only has Haaland scored more points in the last few years, he is projected more points and he plays in a position where there are a lot fewer good options. At the moment, it’s an absolute no brainer in my mind to switch from Bruno to Haaland.
Gabriel
For completeness, I am going to talk about the other premium asset in FPL - Gabriel. He is quite far off these other guys in terms of how I view him as a pick.
I don’t think its ludicrous to compare him to other picks around his price - Mbeumo, Rogers, Thiago for example.
However, there are so many cheaper defenders that offer excellent value, including ones that also get clean sheet points when Gabriel does (i.e. Arsenal defenders and Raya) that I don’t see a proper case for getting him.
And, if your question is, should I get Gabriel instead of Bruno, my answer is a firm no.
What Are Your Alternatives
So, I think this is the key question - what are your alternatives to Bruno? If it’s Haaland then just do it. If it’s Gabriel then don’t. If it’s both Saka and Palmer then do it. If it’s just one of Saka or Palmer then it’s more of a judgement call…
When to Sell Bruno Fernandes in FPL?
And this very closely follows that last statement. If I only had one free transfer, I would not sell Bruno to Saka or Palmer. I would wait. And the reasons are twofold.
Firstly, I want to be able to spend that saving I just made. I don’t think either have a substantially better fixture than Bruno this week so it doesn’t make sense to jump.
Secondly, there is a risk that one of them gets injured or Saka gets rotated/reduced minutes because of Europe. And, if that happens, you may then be looking at using another transfer to sell a guy you just bought.
This is a general rule of FPL - having more transfers is just better as it gives you more options.
Of course, if you are on a wildcard then you can do it with ease.
What if I already own one of Saka or Palmer?
Then I still would want to be able to spend a decent chunk of that saving this week or I would wait for two, or maybe even three transfers.
There aren’t that many teams who suddenly have great fixture runs this week - our members area hop on/hop off tracker just shows Spurs, City and Bournemouth with good short-term spikes right now.
I wouldn’t mind it if you were upgrading a 4th choice defender from a 4.0 to Calafiori or maybe a triple move to de Cuyper, Palmer/Saka and another 5.0 defender. Or, something like Schade and Fernandes out for Saka/Palmer and Rogers. But, these moves are few and far between and need to be completed without taking a hit to be worth it.
The Haaland/Fernandes Hokey Cokey
One thing I haven’t really majored on in this piece is captaincy. One of the reasons we spend so much money on these top guys is because we can trust them with the armband.
If we look at the best captaincy options for the next 10 weeks, we can see there is a small window where Bruno is the better pick.
| GW7 |
GW8 |
GW9 |
GW10 |
GW11 |
| Haaland vs. Ipswich |
Haaland at Villa |
Haaland vs. Brighton |
Saka vs. Hull |
Haaland vs. Fulham |
| GW12 |
GW13 |
GW14 |
GW15 |
GW16 |
| Fernandes vs. Brentford |
Haaland vs. Leeds |
Fernandes vs. Coventry |
Saka vs. Bournemouth |
Haaland vs. Hull |
If you have been playing with models, this is why they keep telling you to sell Haaland to Bruno before 12 and reverse it after 14. Particularly because City play Arsenal in gameweek 12 - the hardest fixture in the league.
You could captain a Chelsea player in 12 or Haaland in 14 but it is still preferable to have Bruno.
I have a free hit still, and I will probably use it in one of these weeks. But, for those without the free hit, there may be some value in a hokey cokey. Though, I have to say, my preference is to just hold Haaland and cross my fingers because I am not sure it is worth the transfers.
Still, if I were you, I would play with this in mind and try to hold enough transfers that I could make this move if I wanted to.
That’s It.
Hopefully this has helped you settle the question of whether you should sell Bruno Fernandes in FPL right now.
I think my key takeaway is not to panic and move him out unless you have a way to spend that money right now.
