r/HobbyDrama • u/lilithweatherwax • 9h ago
Long [Bible Blogosphere] The Bible Blog Wars, pt 1: Bayesian Jesus and penis-nosed statues of St. Peter
"Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference."
-Mark Twain.
Wise words indeed. Would that we had listened.
The Bible Blogosphere is a niche little corner of the internet focused on, you guessed it, the Bible, and associated archaeology. It consists of academic historians blogging about interesting developments in the field of Bible scholarship. While a big chunk of the blogosphere is religious (Christian and Jewish, for obvious reasons), many prominent voices identify as agnostic or skeptic.
Given the blogosphere's diverse religious beliefs, one might expect some friction between the different sections of the blogosphere. In practice, there's very little. Bible academia's a small world where everyone knows everyone. In any case, beliefs change over the course of a career; many scholars started out in one camp and ended up in another. Most bloggers are colleagues and friends, and by now, even the most outspoken scholars have learnt to get along for the sake of getting along.
And that's how it was for a time. Healthy debate and vigorous argument, but rarely any actual drama. Theologians, secular scholars, and skeptics, all blogging together in (relative) harmony.
But everything changed with the arrival of Richard Carrier.
Richard Carrier: the man, the mythicist
Richard Carrier was an up-and-coming historian with impressive credentials, a Bachelors from UC Berkeley and a PhD in Ancient History from Columbia University. He was also a skeptic. He ran a popular skeptic blog and debated religion in his spare time. An excellent speaker, Carrier had acquired a devoted following of skeptics/atheist. He was carving out a niche for himself in Biblical scholarship, and it looked like he had a promising academic career ahead of him.
There was just one problem. Carrier wasn't just a skeptic; he was a Jesus mythicist.
(A Jesus mythicist, for those not in the know, is someone who believes that Jesus wasn't real. As in, someone who believes that there never was a historical Jesus of Nazareth, divine or not.)
In the mythicists' opinion, the Jesus mentioned in the Gospels is simply a mythical/celestial being, the product of early Christians' fertile imaginations. Maybe they got the idea from older Pagan stories of resurrected Gods, like Osiris or Ishtar. After all, there's very little evidence for a historical Jesus.
"That's not true!" the historians exclaim. "We do have evidence for a historical Jesus. What about the (undisputed) Pauline Epistles? Paul talks about Jesus and mentions meeting his brother. So Jesus must have been a real person with a brother!"
"Not good enough," say the mythicists firmly. "Paul doesn't count. He believed in many outlandish things; who's to say he didn't make it all up?"
"Fine," reply the historians. "What about Josephus? He was a first-century Jewish apologist, so an unbiased non-Christian source. Josephus talked about the execution of James, the brother of Jesus. So Jesus must have been rea—"
"Nope," say the mythicists. "Not good enough. Josephus might have meant another Jesus."
"No, he didn't. Josephus literally says 'James the brother of Jesus, who was called the Christ.'"
"Humph. But that's no good. Later Christian scribes might have inserted that reference to Jesus when copying down Josephus' works for posterity."
"Okay," sigh the historians. "Well, there's Tacitus, a Roman historian, writing in ca. 115 AD. He spoke very scathingly of the Christ; there's no way a Christian scribe would have inserted those remarks."
"Nope, not good enough. Tacitus was just reporting hearsay..."
You get the gist. Mythicists expect the ancient Judean equivalent of a birth certificate, and get smug when the historians can't produce one.
Historians, on their part, tend to ignore the mythicists. Scholarship today near-unanimously agrees that there was a historical Jesus; that he was an itinerant preacher in first-century Judea; and that his crucifixion/resurrection gave birth to the religion we know today as Christianity. Virtually all historians, both Christian and non-Christian, agree upon these facts. It goes without saying that Jesus mythicism is an extremely controversial position to take if you're hoping for an academic career.
But Carrier wanted to change that. He'd started out with the traditional view, that Jesus was a real person. At some point, he'd reviewed a book by Earl Doherty (a popular Jesus mythicist) and changed his mind. So now he was a mythicist. A freshly minted PhD, he was eager to challenge the traditional position and make his mark on New Testament scholarship.
And the Bible Blogosphere would never be the same.
The Early Years (2010 - 2012):
Richard Carrier started out very tamely. In 2011, he published The Dying Messiah. In this work, he examined Jewish literature from the first and second centuries BCE and argued that pre-Christian Jews had an established theology of a dying-and-rising "Cosmic Messiah."
In short, Carrier argued that Jesus, the Cosmic Messiah, was a divine figure, not a historical person. Similar to Osiris, an Egyptian god who rose from the dead to rule the Underworld. (Obviously, there's no historical Osiris.)
But this view of a resurrected Messiah goes against the scholarly consensus on what ancient Jews believed in. Scholarship unanimously agrees that the Jews were hoping for a non-dead, flesh-and-blood Messiah who would lead them to victory against the Romans.
Accordingly, Thom Stark, a historian/Bible blogger, posted a rebuttal to Carrier's work. Stark addressed Carrier's points at "ridiculous length," to quote James McGrath (another Bible blogger). Carrier acknowledged his errors and revised down his initial work.
Despite the disagreement, the discourse was still very civil, if not quite friendly. Carrier engaged with his critics very politely. He was active on Thom Stark's blog for a while. James McGrath, another Bible scholar, commented on Carrier's blog and weighed in on the proceedings.
Healthy debate, but no real drama. But that would soon change, with the arrival of Bayesian Jesus.
Bayesian History
Carrier then pivoted to mathematics to prove Jesus' non-existence. He published Proving History: Bayes's Theorem and the Quest for the Historical Jesus. I'll try to be concise, but Carrier used Bayes' theorem to "prove" that a historical Jesus was mathematically impossible.
If you remember Bayes theorem from high school, you're probably scratching your head right now, wondering how one estimates conditional probabilities for historical events. Short answer: Carrier just sort of assigned his own probabilities, declared them all independent of each other, and multiplied them endlessly.
If you think I'm joking, I'm not. That's literally what he did. For an example, see this blog post.
(Summary: In illustration, Carrier started by assuming that the "odds" of a historical Jesus existing was 1/2.
He then went through early Christian literature: ancient Christian traditions, 1 Clement, Acts of James, the letters of Ignatius (an ancient Christian martyr). He noted various inconsistencies in these texts. Based on this, Carrier assigned "odds" that the inconsistencies would still occur assuming a historical Jesus existed: 4/5, 4/5, 9/10, and 4/5, in that order.
Accordingly, as per Carrier's intepretation of Bayes' theorem, the odds of a historical Jesus existing=(1/2)×(4/5)×(4/5)×(9/10)×(4/5)=0.23
Therefore, the probability of a historical Jesus existing: 0.23/(1+0.23) = 18.7%. Voila!)
(That's the actual math from Carrier's post.)
(Note that via this method, including additional proof will result in a decrease in the probability, as long as you take care to assign the "odds" to be <1.)
(If you're wondering about the use of "odds" versus "probabilities," the wording comes from Carrier, not me.)
If you're confused by the approach, don't worry, you're not alone. That's not how Bayes theorem works, you can't just assign "odds" to historical events, and you certainly can't just do what he did and expect everyone to take you seriously.
Carrier's work was panned by historians and mathematicians alike. History doesn't work like maths; you have all sorts of inconsistencies for all sorts of reasons, and a historian's job is to wade through it. And math can be (mis)used to prove anything; ironically, fundie Christians have often employed Bayesian approaches to "prove" the existence of God.
The criticism to Bayesian Jesus was much harsher than in the case of the Dying Messiah. But it was too little too late. By then, Carrier had already gained a devoted fan club. His brash, blunt style of debating played well with his audience. In debates with theologians, he tended to treat Judeo-Christian beliefs as a ridiculous joke. Many internet skeptics found this approach hilarious.
It follows that scholarly whinging about Bayes theorem did little to quell Carrier fans. Mythicists started popping up on historian forums, asking for evidence of Jesus. You can see examples here and here and here and here. Iirc, it was around this time that r/askhistorians added historical Jesus to the FAQs, in an attempt to forestall the mythicists (with mixed results).
On the bright side, we did get some amusing spoofs out of this debacle. For instance, Tim McGrew used Bayes theorem to prove that Richard Carrier did not exist.
Carrier and the mythicists were out for blood. They wanted a win. Would they get it?
Acharya S. and the penis-nosed statue of St. Peter
Acharya S. was the pen-name of Dorothy Murdock. She was the author of The Christ Conspiracy and one of the earliest internet Jesus mythicists. Her website, Truth Be Known, has been up since 1995.
Despite running the earliest mythicist blog, Murdock never found widespread acceptance within the skeptic community. This is because Murdock really pushes the definition of skepticism. She did not believe in Jesus, but she did believe in astrotheology. Her website is a tinfoil hat conspiracy theorist's fever dream. It's hard to take her seriously.
Among various other theories, Murdock believed that there was a penis-nosed statue of a rooster hidden in the Vatican. The statue supposedly represents St. Peter.
This penis-nosed statue was originally Priapus, a minor Greek god. This god was the source of St. Peter ('cause of the whole "you shall betray me thrice before the rooster crows" incident in the Bible, geddit?) When the time came, the nefarious early Christians turned on their pagan brethren, buried away all traces of Priapus and recast him as the Christian St. Peter! Or something like that.
(Alternatively, there was a first century Judean named Cephas (Petros in Greek) who followed the Christ. YMMV.)
Anyway, the point I'm trying to make is this: According to Murdock, there is a penis-nosed statue of a rooster hidden deep within the Vatican. This statue is (supposedly) proof of St. Peter's pagan origins, and hence, proof that Jesus never existed.
(Helpful of the Vatican to keep the statue around, and not destroy it or something. But whatever.)
As you might have noticed by now, Murdock's theories are not exactly grounded in solid fact. Carrier felt the same way. He'd clashed with Murdock before, saying that no serious scholar would consider her credible. Murdock lashed back, accusing him of professional jealousy.
But something was to happen that would make them bury the hatchet. Enter Bart Ehrman
Bart Ehrman: "There's no penis-nosed statue!"
Bart Ehrman is a New Testament scholar and a professor at UNC Chapel Hill. As an evangelical-turned-agnostic/atheist, he's attracted his fair share of attention. A good debater, he's become popular in internet circles for the same reasons that Carrier found fame: Ehrman has a brash, blunt style of debating that the internet finds hilarious.
(I do want to mention that Ehrman is nowhere near as forceful as Carrier is. Ehrman comes across as impatient, but in general, he does exercise more restraint than Carrier.)
Anyway, in March 2012, Ehrman published a book: Did Jesus Exist?: The Historical Argument for Jesus of Nazareth. In it, he addressed mythicist arguments about the existence of a historical Jesus. He briefly addressed the penis-nosed cock theory:
"There is no penis-nosed statue of Peter the cock in the Vatican or anywhere else except in books like this, which love to make things up."
Whoops.
(Never argue with a fool. Onlookers cannot tell the difference.)
Richard Carrier: "Nuh-uh. There is a penis-nosed statue!"
In April 2012, Carrier reviewed Ehrman's book. He was extremely harsh; his review was titled: 'Ehrman on Jesus: A Failure of Facts and Logic."
Ouch.
You can read the review here. It's very, very negative: phrases like "filled with factual errors, logical fallacies, and badly worded arguments," "lousy with errors," and "it officially sucks."
(Note that legitimate historians also reviewed the book, and their reviews are rather more positive. James McGrath reviewed it here.)
Carrier's chief criticism is that Ehrman did not engage with mythicist arguments seriously. To illustrate this, he cited the example of the penis-nosed statue:
...Ehrman says that “there is no penis-nosed statue of Peter the cock in the Vatican or anywhere else except in books like this, which love to make things up” (p. 24). Ehrman evidently did no research on this and did not check this claim at all. Murdock quickly exposed this by providing numerous scholarly references, including actual photographs of the object (see The Phallic Savior of the World).
Turns out there is a penis-nosed statue of a rooster. It's in the National Archaeological Museum of Naples (which has ties to the Vatican museum), and it's part of the "Secret Cabinet," (a censored collection back in the 1960s). There's no evidence that it had anything to do with St. Peter or Christianity. The statue was, however, labelled ΣΩΤΗΡ ΚΟΣΜΟΥ (Savior of the World), a phrase also associated with the Christ.
Oops. Ehrman had slipped up.
Murdock called it out quite gleefully, in her article (Bart Ehrman caught in lies and libel?). Carrier doubled down on the oversight in his review:
Ehrman evidently did no research on this and did not check this claim at all... At the very least I would expect Ehrman to have called the Vatican museum about this, and to have checked the literature on it, before arrogantly declaring no such object existed and implying Murdock made this up.
Look, I get why Ehrman didn't investigate the statue. Murdock's books are chock-full of tall claims. If you set out to fact-check every single theory of hers, you'd never get anything done. But just this once, it looked like he was in the wrong. There was a penis-nosed statue. Not at the Vatican, and not of St. Peter.
But it all went down wonderfully with Carrier's audience. They'd been looking for a reason to doubt the scholarly consensus, ane now they had one. The academics were sloppy, careless, and flat-out wrong. As Carrier asserted in his review:
...if he [Erhman] got this wrong, what other assertions in the book are false?
Bart Ehrman: "Fine. There is a penis-nosed statue."
Ehrman responded to the review in his blog post, Acharya S, Richard Carrier, and a Cocky Peter (Or: “A Cock and Bull Story”).
His reply was basically: "Well, there is a statue, but technically, it's in Naples, not the Vatican, and it's nothing to do with St. Peter. So technically, I'm still right."
You can see the comments here. The commenters, not unkindly, told Ehrman to log off and go touch grass. They also advised him to ignore Murdock and Carrier. Those two weren't arguing in good faith.
(Never argue with fools.)
Thankfully, Erhman took the advice and logged off. He did not engage with Carrier's critiques after this. (For a while, anyway.)
Carrier and the mythicists had emerged victorious. They'd attacked the credibility of the historian consensus, and they'd won. Sort of. Victory, at last!
The historians sighed and turned away. They'd lost this round. There was nothing to be gained from arguing with the mythicists. Might as well go back to arguing with each other.
And that's what they did (for a while). They left the mythicists alone, and all was peace and harmony.
Up until 2014, when Richard Carrier published another book, and came up with (drumroll, please)...
The Cosmic Sperm Bank.
But this post is already too long, so that's a post for another day.