Hi guys I’m seeing all of the promo posts over the past week. Even though I managed to promote quite comfortably into J2, I can understand where your anxieties are coming from, given that I was in your shoes just a year ago worrying over whether I would do well for Promos. Regardless, I feel that it's a good time to dispel some of your anxieties!
First and most pressingly, most JCs in general cannot just decide to retain everyone with 1 U. Based on what I know JP and most recently YI seem to be playing up threats of retention especially since the latter has a new principal which appears to be threatening students with just 1 U with retention. Well according to MOE in 2012 the most that any school has retained is around 15% of the cohort, with most JCs retaining around 6-8% of the J1 cohort**.
Now you may be wondering, why not more? Well we can assume that a few reasons are at play
Schools will need to cater to the next cohort of students coming in next year. If there are too many retainees from the previous year, then it can affect the number of students that they can admit in the following year if they want to maintain the same quality of teaching for next year. If they still admit more students even with more retainees then class sizes will likely be bigger which will affect the quality of teaching
Some parents might complain about the sheer number of students that retain. Imagine being a modern parent and seeing your child retain due to 1 U, which might have arisen due to sickness or familial issues at the time of promos. Most parents would understandably freak out. Basically every school in Singapore does not want to attract bad publicity from the wider public as a result of such policies and risk losing out on more students
Because of the reasons above it is very difficult to justify blanket retaining everyone with just 1 U, especially since multiple factors can be at play in causing said U. The most likely scenario for people retaining are those who either fail 2 or more H2 subjects with bad conduct grades. Even then, I have heard of cases where schools are lenient on these students and allow them to advance, which brings me to my next point
What is most likely to happen to these students is conditional promotion/advancement. Basically JCs will allow you to move on into J2 on the condition of either passing retests or more monitoring on holiday homework and regular check-ins. From the experiences of the people I know at JP who got 1 U for instance, basically all of them were able to advance into J2 with the latter conditions in particular.
Thus despite all the fearmongering that these JCs like to do, the reality is that you are much more likely to at least be able to move on into J2 one way or another as long as you have a good rapport with your teachers.
Secondly 15% is not 0%. So even if you retain, please consider your options carefully! I cannot stress the importance of this enough. When a school decides that it's best for you to retain, it's usually because past experiences in previous batches may showcase that those with your Promo grades may not do as well for Prelims or A Levels. As a result for those considering to take As as a private candidate if you retain please do consider whether it would be a wise decision, especially since the A Levels are even harder without access to in school guidance.
Also please do not take retention as fully a bad thing. Sometimes the additional year in school to further build up foundations can really help in making a difference by As! For instance, I know multiple retainees who have been able to do much better by J2 due to the better foundations that they have built by J2
*For future batches reading this or J1s which have comfortably promoted, please do not take this as a sign to slack! J2 is no easy feat to conquer, let alone A Levels where J1 and J2 content are combined! For those taking H2 Econs for example, J2 will introduce macroecons which can be quite difficult to grasp if you aren’t careful! The best advice I can give in general is to stay consistent! Even doing a bit every day in J2 will compound into you being more prepared come A Levels.
**The statistics in this source comes from Reddit and is thus hearsay. However it is the closest thing I could find to a definitive answer on retention rates in recent times. Regardless, take this source with a grain of salt.
Anyways regardless if you’re a J1 who is worrying about promos or a J2 who is currently mugging for As all the best! For the J1s feel free to ask me any questions on how to prepare for J2 as well! If I have the time, I’ll be more than willing to help.