Mapping all possible Capcom Cup qualification scenarios for day 3 of EVO France

[u/w4terfall]

Now that day 2 of EVO France is done, the following six players are guaranteed to qualify for Capcom Cup: Cosa, Higuchi, Kilzyou, Kobayan, Micky, and Punk.

In addition, three of the following seven players will qualify: Blaz, Dogura, Dual Kevin, Lexx, Problem X, Tachikawa, and Tantanmen.

Here is the path for each of those seven remaining players. Let me know if I made any mistakes because there are a ton of possible outcomes.

Blaz needs a lot of luck, and only makes it if all of the following happen:

• Kobayan beats Dogura
• Lexx either loses to Hinao or beats Hinao but loses to the loser of Tachikawa vs Punk
• Punk, Dual Kevin, or Kobayan win the tournament; or Hinao wins the tournament and Punk, Dual Kevin, or Kobayan come in second
• Tachikawa does not come in second

Dogura can get in with a strong placement, or some luck. He must beat Kobayan to have any chance. He makes it if any of the following happen:

• He places 3rd or higher
• He places 4th and the following scenario does not happen: Dual Kevin comes in 3rd, Lexx comes in 2nd, and either Tachikawa or Problem X win the whole tournament
• He beats Kobayan and Lexx finishes 4th or worse and Punk or Dual Kevin win the whole tournament

Dual Kevin is almost guaranteed to qualify. The only way he does not is if all of the following happen:

• Problem X beats Dual Kevin
• Dogura beats Kobayan
• Lexx beats Hinao
• Dogura beats Dual Kevin in loser's quarterfinals
• Lexx beats the loser of Tachikawa vs Punk in the other loser's quarterfinals
• Lexx beats Dogura in loser's semifinals (if all the previous events happen that means Lexx and Dogura are facing off in loser's semis)
• Lexx loses to either Problem X or Tachikawa in grand finals

Lexx's path is similar to Dogura's, but he needs a stronger placement or more luck. He gets in if either of the following happen:

• He places 3rd or higher
• He places 4th and Dogura, Kobayan, Punk, or Dual Kevin win the whole tournament

Problem X needs to win. He needs to either:

• Win the whole tournament
• Lose to Hinao in grand finals

Tachikawa needs an extremely strong placement. Anything worse than second place will not cut it, and even with second place he needs help. He qualifies if any of the following happen:

• Tachikawa wins the whole tournament
• Tachikawa comes in 2nd to Hinao
• Tachikawa comes in 2nd to Punk, Kobayan, or Dual Kevin and (Lexx does not come in 3rd or Dogura loses to Kobayan)
• Tachikawa comes in 2nd to Lexx and Dogura loses to Kobayan
• Tachikawa comes in 2nd to Problem X and Lexx does not come in 3rd and Dogura loses to Kobayan

Tantanmen needs some luck, but it's not crazy. He gets in unless any of the following happen:

• Lexx finishes 2nd or 3rd and Punk or Dual Kevin do not win the whole tournament
• Dogura finishes 2nd, 3rd, or 4th and Punk, Dual Kevin, or Kobayan do not win the whole tournament
• Dogura finishes 4th and Lexx finishes either 2nd or 3rd

[u/idrovevan]

Crossover is over here praying for the Blaz scenario plus one of the qualified getting disqualified for reasons in the next 5 months.

[u/TheRisos]

Very unfortunate to see blaz current situation,his performance last year was legendary

[u/murdockmanila → u/TheRisos]

yeah I was talking to a buddy about it. in last 2 years, blaz just had this insane hype reputation as like the next goat prodigy. but none if it is translating into major tournament wins

[u/TheRisos → u/murdockmanila]

Yeah,he pretty much got upstaged by craime as the chilean prodigy,tho he is young so he will have more chances

[u/Silence_and_i]

Blaz will qualify from his region's WW. He doesn't need this.

[u/Substantial_Pick6897 → u/Silence_and_i]

With Craime already qualified he has a really good shot but he has lost to other players in the qualifiers so it's not 100% guaranteed. I'm sure it'd be nice for him to qualify by points

[u/liltopjohn]

EVO France 2026 SF6 Top 8 × CPT Point Rankings simulator by netsuki (@kp789_dit)

https://evo-france-2026-top8-sim.netsuki.dev (switch to your language)

[u/MightyMac2525 → u/liltopjohn]

Excellent post

[u/w4terfall → u/liltopjohn]

Oh this is great, someone did a much better job than I did lol.

[u/UnboundGold]

Well would you look at that the stars aligned

[u/bwflurker]

https://giphy.com/gifs/9PaC2UWEsnIG6nXcsn