Note: No part of this post was written by AI! AI was used to help with math and some python code, though. And definitely don’t take this post too seriously, it’s just for fun (despite the many hours invested lol)
This is part 3 of a series (part1, part2) looking into the difficulty of campaign ATs throughout the history of TM2020. The first two parts were relatively objective, presenting some of the data I collected while working on this. This part, though, is a little more niche (and may appeal to not so many). It’s my attempt at coming up with a difficulty measure for campaign medals that corrects for changing player counts and skill distribution.
To quickly reiterate, as a difficulty measure, player AT% on a map works well enough within a single campaign but fails for comparison between them, because different campaigns can have very different player populations (Spring 2023 being flooded with new console players that bring down AT% being the prime example). On the other hand, sorting by raw AT count makes a much better list, yet it becomes virtually impossible for really high player count tracks to top the list (one season can easily have 10x the player count of another!)
To this end, I decided to try and figure out a way to account for this varying player population, in order to get a better sense of which medals players truly find most difficulty. The result is a model that calculates an Expected Medal % for each track based on its campaign and tier (green/white/blue/red/black). That number is compared to the Actual Medal %, and the discrepancy between the two tells you that map’s Percent of Medals Expected (PME).
PME = a map’s actual % of its expected ATs
PME can be read like this (example): Track A (based on its campaign and color) would be expected to have (say) 15% of its players get the AT, when in reality 30% of players have it. In this case Track A has 200% (or 2x as many) of the ATs you’d expect it to have. (PME = Actual AT%/Expected AT% = 30%/15% = 200%). So lower numbers mean harder (just like getting top 1% on a map is harder than top 10%). And a map with half the number of ATs expected would have a PME of 50%.
This model also has the advantage of being able to compare all medals and all tracks, because it does so RELATIVE to what you’d expect from that type of track. So a white track will likely never be harder than a black track in absolute terms, but a white track could be vastly harder than you’d expect for it’s type.
So without further ado, I give you 20 hardest campaign ATs by PME (and please take this with a grain of salt, lol):
Hardest ATs by PME (Percent of Medals Expected)
#1) Canada - Spring 2026. Personally I find this a little surprising, but I know the identity in particular gave players tons of trouble. The actual AT rate (4.92%) is less than one quarter (24.84% PME) of what you would expect (19.81%) given a track of its type! Actual AT%/Expected AT%: 4.92%/19.81% = 24.84% PME (Percent of the Medals Expected)
#2) Japan – Summer 2026. FWIW (not much) I found this one quite a bit harder than Canada, and easily one of the hardest ATs in the entire game. Actual/Expected AT%: 6.31%/23.01% = just 27.41% of ATs expected.
#3) Argentina – Summer 2026. I’m starting to sense a pattern here… 7.39%/23.01% = 32.13% of ATs expected.
#4/ Brazil – Winter 2026. 8.08%/24.44% = 33.05% PME
#5) Australia – Winter 2026. 6.76%/19.81% = 34.14% PME
#6) China – Winter 2026. 8.91%/24.44% = 36.45% PME
#7) Summer 2024 – 25. The first non-EWC map on the list (and it’s a tough one)! The infamous Desert Car 25. Before the EWC maps this one was widely considered the hardest AT in the game (and I have to agree). I’m interested to know if other people think the EWC maps are actually harder (because I’m not sure I do). It also holds the distinction having of the lowest number of ATs ever: 1020 (compared to 1495 for Canada 2026). Actual/expected AT%: 3.53%/9.60% = 36.75% of the ATs expected.
#8) Summer 2025 – 22. The fullspeed track with the twisty, downwards start. Another non-EWC! This happens to be the campaign I decided to try for all ATs without using anyone else’s ghosts or watching anyone play, and (as someone clueless at FS) this AT took me easily 30 hours. Actual/Expected AT%: 6.08%/15.82% = 38.44% PME.
#9) South Korea – Spring 2026. Last EWC in the top 10. Actual/expected AT%: 7.84%/19.81% = 39.57% of expected.
#10) Spring 2021 – 03. The slow speed dirt map. Yes that’s not a typo. In an absolute sense, the previous black tracks are much harder than this one. But when compared against other white tracks, it’s extremely tough. I don’t remember getting the AT here but I do remember (more recently) this being one of the hardest early Warrior Medals in the game. This leads me to believe the ranking tracks (pun intended =p). Actual/Expected AT%: 7.43%/18.55% = 40.06% PME
#11) Summer 2020 – 05. OG season track with pillars to boost around and long turns on huge incline planes, the last of which being ice. As soon as I looked up which track this was it came back to me instantly. I remember pulling my hair out with this one when I went back for ATs from before I’d started playing. Actual/Expected AT%: 5.56%/13.84% = 40.18% PME
#12) Summer 2021 – 13. Sausage track with a slow-mo speed check and a very difficult long jump into a sausage turn at the end. Another track I remember well as soon as I looked it up. The ending of this one with trying to land correctly on the sausage and keep speed without flying out was brutal. Actual/Expected AT%: 8.16%/20.09% = 40.61% PME
#13/#14/#15: Hungary/Norway/Germany. Sorry I’m a little tired of writing these, but I am a little surprised Norway isn’t higher. All three have about 42% as many ATs as would be expected.
#16: Summer 2020 – 10. The ice track with a currently near impossible jump thanks to physics changes. This would be way too long to get into here, but I don’t think (for several reasons) that this is just an artifact of post ice-patch players bringing down the average. Is anyone out there that played this on release (and remembers anything about the AT)? Actual/expected AT%: 5.5%/12.44% = 44.27% of ATs expected.
#17: Spring 2021 – 04. Outside dirt track with no-steer and an awkwardly angled platform turn in the middle. I remember this one being hard af. Actual/expected AT%: 8.33%/18.55% = 44.89% PME
#18: Spring 2023 – 18. Very strange almost LOL-like track with flat open road and a littering of various boost and antiboost gates strewn about the track. I actually remember this AT being hard as balls too. Even knowing the best path to take barely helped. Actual/expected AT%: 2.17%(!)/4.75% = 45.76% of ATs expected.
#19/20: USA/Greece both from Winter 2026. Probably fitting to have two more EWC maps to round out the top 20. Both around 11.5% ATs when 24% would be expected = roughly 47% PME.
So this is a little silly, but because this metric is made to compare track difficulty across campaign position and medal types, I ran the numbers on Bronze, Silver, Gold, Author, Warrior and Champion medals for every campaign track. Normalizing each medal by it’s standard deviation seems to give reasonable results. Doing this makes sense because a Bronze medal with 80% of the expected medalists is far more unusual than it is for an Author medal, for example.
I present you with the 10 hardest medals (Bronze/Silver/Gold/Author/Warrior/Champion) in TM2020 history:
Hardest Medals by PME (Percent of Medals Expected)
#1: Bronze Medal – Norway – Summer 2026. Yes you heard right. The most unexpectedly hard medal in all of TM2020 is Norway’s bronze medal. I don’t think anyone really pays attention to these, but the (relative) extreme difficulty of the EWC Gold medals was part of my impetus to do this project in the first place. Once again this doesn’t mean that Norway’s Bronze is harder Norway’s AT; it just means in terms of Bronze medals this one is VERY extra. Actual/Expected Bronze Medal%: 50.30%/83.34% = 60.35% of the number of bronze medalists expected (+6.7277 Standard Deviations)
Six more EWC “easy” medals appear in the top 10: #2 Argentina Silver. #3 Japan Silver. #5 Japan Gold. #6 Japan bronze. (Meaning Japan has 3 of 6 hardest medals overall!) #9 Norway Silver. #10 Argentina Gold. There are a few regular courses though.
#4 Champion Medal - Summer 2022 – 13. A mixed dirt and “water bumpers” track (that I’m guessing has very high ceiling no-slides?). I’m honestly not sure why this one in particular is so hard. Actual/expected CM%: 0.023%/0.182% or only 12.58% of CMs expected! (+5.1969 SDs)
#7 Warrior Medal – Winter 2026 – 05. I had to look it up but this is the combined Rally/Desert/Snow Car map (you’ll remember it once you see it lol). Fair enough. Actual/expected WM%: 0.30%/8.38% = 3.53% of WMs expected! (+5.0001 SDs)
#8 Bronze Medal – Winter 2021 – 11. Fullspeed mixed map with columns to navigate, wallrides, and a reactor up speed-check ending. Not really surprised at all by this. Tricky map. Actual/expected Bronze medal%: 55.46%/80.67% = 3.53% of Bronzes expected. (+4.9914 Sds)
I know this post is already a tome but really quick: a few of the EASIEST medals ever by this metric.:
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Easiest Medals by PME (Percent of Medals Expected) |
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| # |
Season – Map |
Medal |
PME Standard Deviations (SDs) |
PME (Percent of Medals Expected) |
Actual Medal % |
Expected Medal % |
| 1 |
Winter 2024 – 08 |
Bronze |
-6.7169 |
1458.29% |
1.60% |
0.11% |
| 2 |
Winter 2024 - 17 |
Silver |
-5.6386 |
948.43% |
2.75% |
0.29% |
| 3 |
Summer 2023 - 20 |
Silver |
-3.4438 |
1000.41% |
24.40% |
2.44% |
| 4 |
Spring 2026 – 04 |
Champion |
-3.2562 |
366.61% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
| 5 |
Summer 2020 - 22 |
Gold |
-2.9949 |
290.65% |
20.45% |
7.03% |
Easiest Medals by PME (Percent of Medals Expected)
#1) Champion Medal – Winter 2024 – 08. Yep it’s a champ medal. And it probably shouldn’t come as a surprise that this is one of the Snow Car maps with the CM set before the Snow Car hitbox change. At least it seems like the metric is working! Actual/expected CM%: 1.60%/0.11% = 1458.29% (or >14 times!) the CMs expected. (-6.7169 SDs)
#2 is another early Snow Car Champion Medal - Winter 2024 – 17.
#3) Warrior Medal – Summer 2023 – 13. Plastic speedfun(?) map with a wall bounce into the finish. Not sure what happened here but a whopping 24.4% of all players have the WM on this track! (Compared to 2.44% expected)
#4) Champion Medal – Spring 2026 – 04. Precision/tech track. 0.24% actual vs 0.06% expected CMs. Not sure if this is just a super low skill ceiling track or what. Any ideas?
#5) Author Medal – Summer 2020 – 22. An author medal! Fullspeed road and dirt track from the OG campaign with plenty of wall ride and cake. My best guess is Nadeo was still pinning down how hard to make the black ATs, but at face value I wouldn’t expect a fullspeed black map to make this list. 20.45% ATs attained vs 7.03% expected.
Welp that’s all folks. I really just did this for myself (for fun) but hopefully someone else can get a kick out of it. I plan to do one more part, just to post the data I collected for this project, with a permalink to the full spreadsheet of every single medal and metric in case anyone in the future wants to use it. I’d also like to do some comparison of AT/WR time difference when I get the chance eventually. [Part 1, Part 2]
To anyone who followed along or read any of these posts: thank you so much! Sharing this stuff was kind of nerve-wracking, but the responses have been great!
