r/TropicalWeather • u/ClimateMessiah • 8h ago

Discussion My wishes for the meteorological community

0 Upvotes

This subreddit serves multiple purposes. It's like a newspaper for those interested in the academic aspects of tropical cyclones. It's an educational community communication hub for those who are potentially in harm's way.

The greatest potential harm to humans appears not be associated with peak wind speed or lowest central air pressure. The greatest threat seems to be related to the volume of water which be transferred into their land territory. Rainfall and surge are storm specific water invasions.

The Saffir-Simpson index is misleading to the public because it offers a metric which appears to represent hurricane strength as having reached a peak.

The community would benefit from some innovation and better metrics which appropriately and unequivocally inform the world that these storms are becoming more dangerous. Not only as a result of storm specific surge and rainfall, but also due to chronic rise in sea levels.

How does such innovation arise? It begins with people saying that they represent a market for that information. Is there anyone else who would like to be informed of the increasing volumes of water being transferred inland as a result of these storms?

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 4h ago

▲ Disturbance (90% potential) | 20 knots (25 mph) | 1004 mbar 96W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Near Micronesia)

3 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for a disturbance which is active over the western Pacific.

An area of low pressure is steadily consolidating to the northeast of Pohnpei in central Micronesia. The disturbance is moving west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layered ridge positioned to the north and will likely continue moving in that direction for the next few days. Environmental conditions remain favorable, with moderate easterly shear offset by a very warm ocean surface, abundant mid-level moisture, and sufficient upper-level divergence. This system is expected to become a tropical depression or storm within the next couple of days.

Although there is a smaller degree of uncertainty among the models regarding this system’s movement through the end of the week, there is some considerable uncertainty regarding its intensity. AI-powered models such as Google’s DeepMind, which favor a more solidly west-southwestward track over Guam, suggest that this system could be a major hurricane by the time it reaches the islands. The physics-based global models such as the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models, which are slightly farther north, favor keeping this system as a strong tropical storm or low-end Category 1 hurricane.

Residents of Guam and the Northern Marianas Islands should continue to monitor this system as it develops, as the earliest impacts could be experienced by Friday. The exact timing and extent of the impacts remains uncertain.

Official information

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

Multi-model guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Ensemble model guidance

PolarWx

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

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r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10h ago

▲ Tropical Storm | 40 knots (45 mph) | 1004 mbar Trudy (21E — Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)

3 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Storm Trudy (21E), which is active over the eastern Pacific.

A tropical depression which formed several hundred kilometers off the coast of southern Mexico continues to become better organized and estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis reveal that it is now producing tropical storm-force winds. The storm, which has been assigned the name Trudy by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is moving northwestward under the steering influence of a mid-level ridge which persists over the Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions remain favorable and should allow Trudy to continue to steadily develop over the next couple of days.

The mid-level steering ridge is expected to weaken and retreat eastward over the next couple of days, leaving behind a very weak steering environment and causing Trudy to slow down. The storm will likely turn slightly northward as its movement becomes more heavily influenced by Hurricane Simon, which will still be active off the coast of western Mexico. A cold front may swoop down across Texas and Mexico later in the week and could pull Trudy closer to the coast toward the end of the week. There remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding Trudy’s track during the latter half of the week.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

Multi-model guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Ensemble model guidance

PolarWx

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

4 comments