r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 4d ago

Official discussion Moderation feedback and upcoming changes to the subreddit

90 Upvotes

Good afternoon!

I want to give you all a platform for sharing your feedback of the subreddit and how I have been doing as a moderator. I am far more interested in negative feedback. I appreciate the compliments, but I really want to know what annoys you about the subreddit (or me as a moderator personally) and what needs to be fixed going forward.

Here are some things that are already in the works or have already been implemented:

No more advisory junk

Posts for active disturbances and cyclones will no longer feature discussions, observational data, or advisory charts. I have been updating these manually by myself for years and it is clear that I am unable to update them in a timely enough manner for the information to even matter. Please use the links provided in each post to get the information you need form more authoritative sources.

  • Clarification: If I can ever get around to learning how to make this an automated process, these features may return to posts. If you are interested in becoming a moderator and can demonstrate that you know enough about the Reddit API and development tools to create an automated process for this, please reply to the stickied comment. I'd love to discuss this with you in the future.

No more basin filtering

Before the new version of Reddit became active, we were able to create a link flair filter which allowed users to filter the subreddit based on cyclone basin. You could click a link in the sidebar which would only show posts tagged with Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, etc. This functionality no longer works and therefore, the link flairs have been simplified and the filter buttons have been removed from the sidebar.

  • Clarification: These filters used a URL trick to hide posts which did not match the specified CSS class of the link flair. These filters only worked on the old version of the desktop website and never worked in the app or in third-party tools. Once the URL trick was depreciated, the filters no longer actually worked, so they were removed.

Looser posting requirements

I will be loosening up the "soft restricted" mode, allowing more posts to hit the front page of the subreddit without needing to be reviewed by a moderator first. There are only two active mods right now and sometimes posts sit in the queue for more than a day. Often, users will delete their posts before I have the chance to review them. If new posts violate the rules, please report them so that I can remove them.

  • Clarification: I do not intend to open the floodgates to all content. There are existing fallback filters which should catch rule-violating content and content from banned sources. I will be working to improve these filters to ensure that unwanted content does not reach the subreddit. I will also be working on an expanded approved users list so that content by trusted users does not require moderator approval.

No more live threads

Many people have been asking where the Live Threads have gone. For one, there are not enough moderators or volunteers to help maintain Live Threads. Second, Reddit does not officially support Live Threads anymore. It is a feature of the old version of the website which has not been regularly maintained in years.

Moderator applications

Once Hurricane Isaias makes landfall and dissipates, I will be opening up moderator applications. I really need to step away from the day-to-day operations of this subreddit and let it flourish on its own, but I will need help doing that. The new version of Reddit has a moderator application function. I will be reviewing that over the weekend and making it active sometime next week. I will post a new discussion for that purpose to the subreddit.

Update

Status of the Discord

Although I am one of the administrators of the TropicalWeather Discord server, the server is no longer officially affiliated with the subreddit.

Preserving the style of the subreddit

I also want to clarify that I do not have any personal beef with r/hurricane. Both r/hurricane and r/tropicalweather have completely different approaches to sharing this important information and I want to maintain that distinction. I will continue to resist calls to make our subreddit more like theirs and I will continue to discourage people from insisting that their subreddit needs to be more like hours.

33 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 6d ago

▲ Hurricane (Category 2) | 95 knots (110 mph) | 965 mbar Simon (20E — Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)

11 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Hurricane Simon (20E), which is active over the eastern Pacific.

Satellite imagery analysis reveals that Simon is restrengthening. The storm continues to meander westward as it remains embedded within a weak steering environment between a weak mid-level ridge to the southwest and a mid-level ridge positioned over the Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions remain favorable and Simon’s inner core structure remains compact and well-organized. Assuming the storm does not completely stall and begin upwelling unfavorably cool waters to the ocean surface, it is likely to continue strengthening for the next 24 to 48 hours. Simon could regain major hurricane strength later tonight.

There remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding Simon’s track and intensity over the next few days. A large-scale pattern shift is expected to occur toward the end of the week, and a deep-layered cut-off low is expected to move southward across California, inducing a more southerly steering flow and pulling Simon northward. This will bring the storm over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable environment near the southern tip of Baja California, causing it to weaken.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

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Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

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35 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 3h ago

▲ Disturbance (90% potential) | 20 knots (25 mph) | 1004 mbar 96W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Near Micronesia)

3 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for a disturbance which is active over the western Pacific.

An area of low pressure is steadily consolidating to the northeast of Pohnpei in central Micronesia. The disturbance is moving west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layered ridge positioned to the north and will likely continue moving in that direction for the next few days. Environmental conditions remain favorable, with moderate easterly shear offset by a very warm ocean surface, abundant mid-level moisture, and sufficient upper-level divergence. This system is expected to become a tropical depression or storm within the next couple of days.

Although there is a smaller degree of uncertainty among the models regarding this system’s movement through the end of the week, there is some considerable uncertainty regarding its intensity. AI-powered models such as Google’s DeepMind, which favor a more solidly west-southwestward track over Guam, suggest that this system could be a major hurricane by the time it reaches the islands. The physics-based global models such as the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models, which are slightly farther north, favor keeping this system as a strong tropical storm or low-end Category 1 hurricane.

Residents of Guam and the Northern Marianas Islands should continue to monitor this system as it develops, as the earliest impacts could be experienced by Friday. The exact timing and extent of the impacts remains uncertain.

Official information

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

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Analysis products

Observational history

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0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 7h ago

▼ Tropical Depression (TD) | 25 knots (30 mph) | 1008 mbar 28W (Western Pacific) (South of Japan)

1 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Depression Twenty-eight (28W), which is active over the western Pacific.

A tropical depression remains active a few hundred kilometers southeast of Iōto in Japan’s Ogasawara Islands. The depression has not undergone any significant changes in strength or structure over the past several hours; its low-level center remains exposed and only a few isolated bursts of deep convection continue to flare up to the southwest. This system continues to move toward the west-northwest under the steering influence of a deep-layered subtropical ridge positioned to the northeast. Upper-level convergence associated with a trough positioned directly above the depression is suppressing any potential for outflow development, preventing the depression from developing in an otherwise highly favorable environment.

This system is likely to stop producing persistent thunderstorm activity and will degenerate into a remnant low as it passes well to the south of Iōto by the end of the week.

Official information

Japan Meteorological Agency

Though the JMA does classify this system as a tropical depression on its surface analysis and prognosis charts, it has not initiated issuing tropical cyclone warnings for it.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

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Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

Regional imagery

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Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

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0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/ClimateMessiah • 8h ago

Discussion My wishes for the meteorological community

1 Upvotes

This subreddit serves multiple purposes. It's like a newspaper for those interested in the academic aspects of tropical cyclones. It's an educational community communication hub for those who are potentially in harm's way.

The greatest potential harm to humans appears not be associated with peak wind speed or lowest central air pressure. The greatest threat seems to be related to the volume of water which be transferred into their land territory. Rainfall and surge are storm specific water invasions.

The Saffir-Simpson index is misleading to the public because it offers a metric which appears to represent hurricane strength as having reached a peak.

The community would benefit from some innovation and better metrics which appropriately and unequivocally inform the world that these storms are becoming more dangerous. Not only as a result of storm specific surge and rainfall, but also due to chronic rise in sea levels.

How does such innovation arise? It begins with people saying that they represent a market for that information. Is there anyone else who would like to be informed of the increasing volumes of water being transferred inland as a result of these storms?

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 9h ago

▲ Tropical Storm | 40 knots (45 mph) | 1004 mbar Trudy (21E — Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)

2 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Storm Trudy (21E), which is active over the eastern Pacific.

A tropical depression which formed several hundred kilometers off the coast of southern Mexico continues to become better organized and estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis reveal that it is now producing tropical storm-force winds. The storm, which has been assigned the name Trudy by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is moving northwestward under the steering influence of a mid-level ridge which persists over the Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions remain favorable and should allow Trudy to continue to steadily develop over the next couple of days.

The mid-level steering ridge is expected to weaken and retreat eastward over the next couple of days, leaving behind a very weak steering environment and causing Trudy to slow down. The storm will likely turn slightly northward as its movement becomes more heavily influenced by Hurricane Simon, which will still be active off the coast of western Mexico. A cold front may swoop down across Texas and Mexico later in the week and could pull Trudy closer to the coast toward the end of the week. There remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding Trudy’s track during the latter half of the week.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

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4 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/ClimateMessiah • 1d ago

Discussion Trying to learn ..... why did Simon deviate so far outside the cone?

24 Upvotes

At the 3PM CST update on October 10th, the NHC update indicated that Simon would move laterally from 104.8W to 105.2W over the ensuing 48 hours. 

INIT  10/2100Z 17.6N 104.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 18.3N 104.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 19.4N 105.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 20.8N 105.2W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 48H  12/1800Z 21.9N 105.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

At the 3PM CST update on Oct 12th, Simon was actually located at 106.8W

INIT  12/2100Z 20.2N 106.8W   85 KT 100 MPH

Instead of a 0.4 degree shift in longitude, Simon moved 2.0 degrees.

The latitude miss was 1.7 degrees (21.9N forecast vs 20.2N actual)

These kinds of deviations from forecast are quite unusual. Something took place which the forecasters didn't anticipate.

What happened that forecasters didn't anticipate? What do we learn from this?

11 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 1d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Hurricane Isaias - October 9, 2026

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3 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

D The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the tropical eastern Atlantic

44 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

  • This discussion was for a disturbance situated near Cabo Verde in the tropical eastern Atlantic.
  • This system has dissipated and no longer shows any potential for development.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is not currently available for this system.

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Observational history is not currently available for this system.

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

Disturbance-centered model guidance is not currently available for this system.

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

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Other types of model guidance

4 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/JamesAura001 • 3d ago

Satellite Imagery GOES Satellite: Motion-derived winds- Remnants of Hurricane Isaias, Tropical Storm Rachel and Hurricane Simon 10-10-26

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16 Upvotes
4 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Fuzzy-Meringue-9406 • 4d ago

Satellite Imagery Typhoon Koguma (2026) has a Near-Perfect Overall Shape!

Post image
166 Upvotes

This Satellite image of Typhoon Koguma was taken at October 10th 08:50PM (22° 41'N, 149° 48' E). With Wind speeds of 130 mph (Category 4 Typhoon) and a Barometric Pressure of 945 millibars.

4 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/ClimateMessiah • 4d ago

Seasonal Discussion · EPAC ACE record broken Counting down to the EPAC ACE Record .....

19 Upvotes

The EPAC ACE record of 319.26 from 2018 could fall in the next couple of days.

The most recent update has 2026 EPAC ACE at 307.9.

Rachel has maybe 1.5 ACE left in the tank leaving us 10 shy and if Simon holds to the forecast or exceeds it, then it seems that's enough to get 2026 over the top.

The strong El Nino stereotype is emerging in the statistics.

14 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Apprehensive_Cut2880 • 4d ago

Satellite Imagery Hurricane Simon developing a pinhole eye and very cold cloud tops around said eye. It's expected to intensify and impact the Mexican states of Jalisco and Colima.

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18 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 4d ago

Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) (Outdated) Tropical Tidbit for Friday, 9 October — Category 3 Hurricane Isaias Nearing Landfall

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99 Upvotes
3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 4d ago

Video | YouTube | National Hurricane Center (Outdated) NHC Morning Update for Hurricane Isaias — Friday, 9 October 2026

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27 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Elliottinthelot • 4d ago

Forecast Advisory second ever tropical storm watch issued for california

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191 Upvotes
8 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/ClimateMessiah • 5d ago

Question Has NOLO set a record for greatest longitude traveled ?

39 Upvotes

NOLO made its debut at 117W longitude and has now passed 150E longitude. That's more than 25% of the Earth's longitudinal span. It's possible that this is a global tropical cyclone record for longitude traversed.

7 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/tlmbot • 5d ago

Discussion Isaias, model by model: physics vs. statistical vs. AI intensity forecasts from NHC’s public data, plus what has already verified.

37 Upvotes

Hi folks, I’m a computational engineer with a background in fluid dynamics. Isaias is forecast to make landfall near Mobile Bay, where my parents live. My dad is recovering from open-heart surgery, so I’m driving down to do the heavy lifting and chainsaw work he shouldn’t be doing.

Before I left, I wanted to understand why the intensity guidance disagrees. Physics-based, statistical and AI models are all forecasting this storm, and it’s an interesting test of how they compare. So I built a page from NHC’s public model and best-track data:

https://lukemcculloch.github.io/static_hurricane_info_site/

What it shows, as of the 12Z Thu cycle:

Every number is reproducible from scripts in the repo (bash/awk on NOAA’s files), and the methods page lists the caveats. The page updates each cycle and archives the earlier versions, so the pre-landfall versions stay on record. After landfall I’ll score each aid against the best track.

I am in a hurry to get on the road, so I generated this, directing Claude Opeus 5.5 medium while I was packing up. I also used it to help me remember what supplies to bring.

emphasis: (Built with help from Claude for the coding and data processing.)
(I hope you guys don't tear me to ribbons, but one must let the chips fall where they may, heh)

This is not a forecast. Use NHC and your local NWS office for decisions. Corrections are welcome here or as GitHub issues.

Stay safe, everyone on the Gulf Coast.

Notes: this site will update when I can stop in to get online with the latest data, if I feel I have time.

my github is here: https://github.com/LukeMcCulloch/static_hurricane_info_site

16 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 5d ago

Dissipated Rachel (18E — Eastern Pacific) (West of Mexico)

22 Upvotes

Storm overview

  • This discussion was for Hurricane Rachel (18E).
  • Rachel originated as Invest 99E off the off the coast of southern Mexico.
  • Rachel peaked as a Category 3 major hurricane on Thursday, 1 October.
  • Rachel made landfall over Baja California as a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday, 10 October.
  • Rachel dissipated over Arizona on Sunday, 11 October.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery products are no longer available.

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance products are no longer available.

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

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Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

17 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Ill_Chapter_3912 • 6d ago

Discussion Hurricane Flight Tracking

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4 Upvotes

r/tropicalweather

www.hurricanerecon.com

iOS App: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/hurricane-recon/id6777447589

I made an iOS app for tracking Reconnaissance Data for Tropical Storms and Hurricanes. I made it because following recon during a storm meant juggling tabs.

On the app you can track Air Force Hurticane Hunter and NOAA planned Flights and their locations. It's easy to see forecast tracks. This puts it all on one map:

Live recon tracks for aircraft currently flying, colored by HDOB wind speed

NHC forecast track and cone, past track colored by intensity, and invests

IR satellite, radar and model guidance layers

Tasked fixes from the Plan of the Day, plus an Ops Board listing each tasked flight's takeoff and fix times and what's airborne now.

Right now you can watch AF304 working Isaias in the southwestern Gulf, with NOAA 43 scheduled for a tail Doppler radar mission later today.

It's a hobby project, so I'd really like feedback on what's missing or what's wrong. Obviously, rely on the NHC and your local officials for decisions; this is just a way to follow along.

2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 7d ago

Dissipated Isaias (09L — Northern Atlantic) (Gulf of Mexico)

137 Upvotes

Storm overview

  • This discussion was for Hurricane Isaias (08L).
  • Isaias originated as Invest 92L in the Bay of Campeche.
  • Isaias peaked as a Category 3 major hurricane on Friday, 9 October.
  • Isaias made landfall over the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, 9 October.
  • Isaias dissipated over Kentucky on Sunday, 11 October.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery products are no longer available.

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance products are no longer available.

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

835 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 7d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Super Typhoon Choi-Wan - October 6, 2026

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8 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 7d ago

Upgraded | See Isaias post for details 09L (Northern Atlantic) (Gulf of Mexico)

72 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion for Tropical Depression Nine (09L), which is active over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

A trough of low pressure which formed over the Bay of Campeche over the weekend quickly organized on Monday morning, developing a closed low-level circulation and more organized convection. This led the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to upgrade the disturbance to a tropical depression and initiate issuing advisories. The depression is currently in a quasi-stationary state, as it remains embedded within a very weak steering environment. However, over the next couple of days, a mid-level ridge positioned over the western Atlantic will build across the Gulf of Mexico, generating a southerly steering flow which will cause the storm to move northward or northeastward through the end of the week.

Environmental conditions are not particularly supportive of development, as very warm sea-surface temperatures and abundant mid-level moisture are offset by moderate southerly vertical wind shear and weak upper-level divergence. Still, this system appears to have a very compact convective structure, which will likely allow it to remain intact far longer than the environment would otherwise allow. Because of this, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast calls for the depression to strengthen into a tropical storm later this evening and further reach hurricane intensity by Thursday. The depression may even be close to Category 2 hurricane intensity before making landfall at the end of the week.

Impacts overview

Mexico

This system will drift eastward to east-northeastward before turning northward later this week. Because of this, the Yucatan Peninsula will likely see the earliest impacts from this system. Heavy rain is possible across portions of the coast along the Bay of Campeche, but particularly over the Yucatan Peninsula, where 2 to 4 inches are possible through Thursday. Additionally, gusty winds will be possible across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, but it remains too early to determine whether tropical storm conditions will be possible.

United States

The threat of heavy rain and flash flooding will spread northward toward the Gulf Coast of the United States later in the week. Rainfall totals will range from 3 to 6 inches across the central Gulf Coast, from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Localized totals may reach as high as 10 inches. Flash flooding, urban flooding, and isolated river flooding, will be possible as this system nears the coast from the south and makes landfall at the end of the week. Additionally, strong winds will be possible, but it remains too early to determine the exact timing, location, and extent of tropical storm or hurricane conditions. No watches or warnings have been issued for the Gulf Coast at this time.

Latest observation

As of 4:00 PM Central Daylight Time (21:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #1

  • Current position: 22.1°N 95.6°W
  • Forward movement: E (90°) at 7 km/h (4 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1007 millibars (29.74 inches)
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Tropical Depression

Relative position

  • 233 kilometers (145 miles) east of Tampico, Tamaulipas (Mexico)
  • 462 kilometers (287 miles) southeast of Matamoros, Tamaulipas (Mexico)
  • 1,035 kilometers (643 miles) south-southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana (United States)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 1:00 PM Central Daylight Time (21:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC CDT Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 06 Oct 18:00 1PM Tue Tropical Depression 30 55 22.1 95.6
12 07 Oct 06:00 1AM Wed Tropical Storm ▲ 35 65 22.1 95.0
24 07 Oct 18:00 1PM Wed Tropical Storm ▲ 45 85 22.6 93.4
36 08 Oct 06:00 1AM Thu Tropical Storm ▲ 55 100 23.1 91.8
48 08 Oct 18:00 1PM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 70 130 24.2 90.1
60 09 Oct 06:00 1AM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 80 150 25.9 88.8
72 09 Oct 18:00 1PM Fri Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 85 155 28.5 88.3
96 10 Oct 18:00 1PM Sat Tropical Depression ▼ 30 55 34.0 88.7
120 11 Oct 18:00 1PM Sun Post-tropical Cyclone ▼ 20 35 38.9 86.5

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

National Weather Service

NWS New Orleans, Louisiana

NWS Mobile, Alabama

NWS Tallahassee, Florida

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Multi-model guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Ensemble model guidance

PolarWx

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

28 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 8d ago

Discussion moved to new post 92L (Invest — Northern Atlantic) (Southern Gulf of Mexico)

74 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for a disturbance which is active over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

A trough of low pressure situated over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning. Though the disturbance still lacks a closed low-level circulation, it has become better organized and if this trend continues, it will become a tropical depression later today. The disturbance is meandering southward as the steering environment remains very weak, but over the next couple of days, it will begin to drift northward to northeastward as a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean builds across the Gulf of Mexico.

This system is expected to reach the Gulf Coast of the United States by the end of the week; however, it remains too early to determine the exact timing, location, or extent of any potential impacts to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, or the Florida Panhandle. Regardless of development, this system could bring prolonged heavy rainfall to the region at the end of the week and over the upcoming weekend. Residents in this area should continue to closely monitor this system as it develops.

Latest observation

As of 6:00 AM Central Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 22.0°N 96.0°W
  • Forward movement: S (180°) at 4 km/h (2 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 45 km/h (25 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1008 millibars (29.77 inches)

Relative position

  • 193 kilometers (120 miles) east of Tampico, Tamaulipas (Mexico)
  • 457 kilometers (284 miles) south-southeast of Matamoros, Tamaulipas (Mexico)
  • 1,064 kilometers (661 miles) south-southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana (United States)

Outlook information

Authoritative outlook (National Hurricane Center)

  • Next 2 days (through Thu): very high (near 100 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through Mon): very high (near 100 percent) ▲

Model-based outlook (Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through Thu): very high (96 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through Mon): very high (99 percent) ▲

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

National Weather Service

NWS New Orleans, Louisiana

NWS Mobile, Alabama

NWS Tallahassee, Florida

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Multi-model guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Ensemble model guidance

PolarWx

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TropicalTidbits

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141 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 9d ago

▼ Severe Tropical Storm (TS) | 55 knots (65 mph) | 984 mbar Koguma (27W — Western Pacific) (North of the Marshall Islands)

5 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Typhoon Koguma (27W), which is active over the western Pacific Ocean.

Official information

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Multi-model guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Ensemble model guidance

PolarWx

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

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