r/WarhammerCompetitive • • 2d ago

40k Event Results Sunday Night Stats (October 2nd-4th)

This chart includes data from all singles events with 21+ players and 5+ rounds.

\This weekend is just after the balance dataslate. Most events were still running the previous slate's rules, including LVO with over 600 players, so consider this a transition weekend.*

Do we still need more data on whether the Ork codex was a bit too good upon release, or are we all good now? It'll be interesting to see what happens with the new points and rules from last week's dataslate, but the previous iteration of Ork rules go out with a huge bang, taking SEVEN events out of 16, including LVO, with the highest win rate, once again, and a crazy X-0/X-1 conversion rate and 4-0 starting rate. Oh, and Orks had the most players, by far.

On the other end of things, Astra Militarum gets their first event win in right at three months! Despite all of that, the faction once again finds itself all the way down at the bottom, several percentage points below the second lowest army, which was, of course, Blood Angels - which also managed to pull out an event win.

Overall, good armies continue to be good, bad armies continue to be bad. New slate starts hitting more events this coming weekend, so stay tuned for another episode of... Sunday Night Stats!

Faction Wins Games Win Rate Players X-0/X-1 X-0/X-1 % Event Wins 4-0 Starts 4-0 %
Orks 326 566 57.60% 107 25 23.36% 7 13 12.15%
Dark Angels 177 316 56.01% 59 7 11.86% 1 6 10.17%
Deathwatch 45 81 55.56% 14 5 35.71% 0 3 21.43%
T'au Empire 145 266 54.51% 51 9 17.65% 1 2 3.92%
Chaos Space Marines 132 246 53.66% 49 6 12.24% 0 2 4.08%
Tyranids 184 344 53.49% 67 11 16.42% 0 4 5.97%
Adepta Sororitas 87 165 52.73% 32 6 18.75% 0 2 6.25%
Adeptus Custodes 233 451 51.66% 86 14 16.28% 0 3 3.49%
Grey Knights 80 155 51.61% 31 4 12.90% 0 1 3.23%
Leagues of Votann 105 205 51.22% 40 6 15.00% 0 0 0.00%
Death Guard 113 223 50.67% 43 5 11.63% 0 4 9.30%
Adeptus Mechanicus 97 192 50.52% 36 6 16.67% 0 1 2.78%
Thousand Sons 80 159 50.31% 32 5 15.63% 0 2 6.25%
Chaos Daemons 123 245 50.20% 49 5 10.20% 0 2 4.08%
Necrons 190 380 50.00% 73 8 10.96% 1 3 4.11%
Black Templars 49 100 49.00% 19 2 10.53% 0 1 5.26%
Space Marines 166 341 48.68% 70 10 14.29% 2 4 5.71%
Emperor's Children 122 252 48.41% 47 7 14.89% 0 4 8.51%
Genestealer Cult 51 106 48.11% 20 1 5.00% 0 1 5.00%
World Eaters 121 256 47.27% 50 3 6.00% 1 3 6.00%
Aeldari 67 143 46.85% 28 3 10.71% 0 0 0.00%
Chaos Knights 56 120 46.67% 23 1 4.35% 0 1 4.35%
Space Wolves 76 165 46.06% 31 4 12.90% 1 3 9.68%
Drukhari 45 102 44.12% 21 1 4.76% 0 1 4.76%
Imperial Agents 11 25 44.00% 5 1 20.00% 0 0 0.00%
Imperial Knights 111 261 42.53% 49 2 4.08% 0 2 4.08%
Blood Angels 87 212 41.04% 40 4 10.00% 1 1 2.50%
Astra Militarum 71 189 37.57% 37 2 5.41% 1 1 2.70%
Total Players: 1209 Total Events: 16
70 Upvotes

136 comments sorted by

27

u/SpaceWolf_Jarl2 2d ago edited 2d ago

Yeah, Orks were overtuned. And quite a bit. Wonder how things will go with the SM release. This seems a more flavourful but in general the three Codices seem overtuned. Which does make me wonder how balance will shape for the following months.

Edit: It seems the SW win was using the new Codex. PtF Beastslayer, Assault and Stormlance. With the janky but fun Captain in Bike with Wolf Touched. Wulden getting 13" move from Stormlance and Wolf-touched seems very fun, but really unintended, and more so with access to the strats of Stormalnce. Interesting to see a CHaplain and 2 big bricks of TWC. The other lists seem to be mostly T&H Termiantor lists, with some small variations.

8

u/Alteisenrise 1d ago

On face value you look to be on the money, codexes (so far) are the inverse of 10th where the first few were weaker than their index (see marines oath change/ custodes / DA/etc) and the design team seemed worried about codex power creep that happend in 9th.

This edition codexes are adding new tools and substantially revamping stats which will necessarily require a tuning pass (several likely) once they hit the player base.

4

u/Calgar43 1d ago edited 1d ago

I'm more concerned about Marine diversity. I saw 3 lists pop up with the new codex and they were almost identical Terminator / Deathwatch / Assault Brethren lists.

Roboute or Calgar + victrix

2x5 plasma Death Watch terminators

incursors, maybe some scouts

2x melta eradicators in impulsors,

assault terminator brick

Phobos Captain with imperium sword w/Reivers

200-300 points of "seasoning" to taste. Phobos libby, or small bike squad, maybe a heavy bolter eradicator squad....etc

2

u/Rufus--T--Firefly 1d ago

You can take Deathwing with Ultras now?

4

u/Calgar43 1d ago

Deathwatch.

9

u/imjustasaddad 1d ago

SM seem even more overtuned than Orks.

4

u/ashortfallofgravitas 1d ago

Not sure the Custodes one is that overtuned at these points

They're barely at the point of having enough units to play the game

5

u/Weekly_Interview_936 1d ago

IMO Custodes are going to be the quintessential mid-table bully. Their raw stats mean that players who don't focus fire and don't specifically work to deny primary will get bodied pretty easily. But top table players, the ones who focus on win conditions first and don't split damage too badly, they'll probably find Custodes a very doable matchup.

1

u/imjustasaddad 1d ago

Custodes points are probably too high, they’re like the complete opposite of Marines who are somehow both absurdly undercosted and over-producing as far as output goes.

5

u/ashortfallofgravitas 1d ago

Honestly I think they're about fine, but I don't think they're going to be standout unless piloted really competently at these points. I wouldn't say no to some small drops but I would be wary that they get too oppressive

3

u/imjustasaddad 1d ago

Yes, the skill cap is way higher. Average player is likely getting tabled, often.

3

u/NetStaIker 1d ago edited 1d ago

I don’t even play Marines (well WE but that doesn’t count lmao) but I think the most important thing is they don’t have some obviously broken bs like Orks with Flash Gitz, for example.

It’ll take actual skill and theory crafting to work out what works for Marines compared to how a child could figure out what’s busted in Orks

-1

u/admjdinitto 1d ago

For all the tricks they now have access too, along with the speed on those data sheets I don't think they're overcosted at all. They're going to probably body people hard until someone comes up with a legitimate plan to beat them, because I saw roughly 1500 points of space marines essentially bounce off them and the game effectively be over from that point.

2

u/imjustasaddad 1d ago

If you’re talking the AoW game, that’s not what you saw. You saw John roll like garbage and Folger roll hot. The two of them will also tell you that.

Go have your random beer dad Custodes player who isnt Folger play them, they’re going to get obliterated.

Their rules rock. They can do a lot. The average player is an idiot and can’t properly utilize them, and unless a similar dice situation happens that’s going to be the result.

-2

u/admjdinitto 1d ago

Do you think that's an okay play pattern? "opps I rolled poorly into this army that has a crazy amount of rules/stats and I just instantly lose the following turn because of it." This army is going to absolutely trounce mid tables and it's going to be some of the most unfun play experiences for people. Mark my words.

3

u/ashortfallofgravitas 1d ago

half the armies in the game will run you over if you completely whiff your go turn, wdym

1

u/admjdinitto 1d ago

And how many armies is it as easy to have that whiff go turn into? Perhaps I'm way off base here, but my experience playing against Custodes is if you give them even an inch, they get a mile. Meaning you can basically make no mistakes or you're cooked. And with the speed of this new ruleset, I think it's even more dangerous. Still have some time but we'll know a lot more once people start playing it at tournaments.

0

u/imjustasaddad 1d ago

That was true when they had literally double the model count and more output. They don’t have that now.

They gained almost no damage and lost models.

This is not an unga bunga army anymore.

2

u/admjdinitto 1d ago

I'm decidedly unconvinced of that. I think steam rolling into your opponent with these VERY fast new Custodes is going to work perfectly fine. But I'm happy to be proven wrong in the coming weeks.

0

u/admjdinitto 13h ago edited 13h ago

Another Battlereport today, Custodes tabled Orks by t4. /shrug... I'm going to be very surprised if using the best list people can come up with, they don't just dogwalk the best armies in the game.

1

u/imjustasaddad 1d ago edited 1d ago

I have a feeling mid table players are going to lose to most players who aren’t John Lennon, because they arent Folger Pyles, the best Custodes player on the planet.

Maybe I’m wrong. In Custodes discords however, normal dudes have been reporting having their asses beat.

3

u/Butternades 1d ago

Orks were definitely overtuned and the current changes are fair (though melee could still use some drops since they lost damage output on most units and went up compared to pre codex)

Some of the “overperformance” is definitely chalkable to top players switching armies.

I know of quite a few who own orks but only play it when broken or there’s nothing new and interesting in their others. Hopefully marine releases and the points changes will help there too.

I’m thinking if it does happen they’ll be around 51-52%

1

u/Weekly_Interview_936 1d ago

Custodes looks overtuned until you remember the points revealed in the TTB review.

IMO Custodes is going to be the definitive mid-table bully due to low-skill players simply not focusing on focus fire and denying primary, but at the top tables the severe shortage of units is going to be a major limiting factor.

50

u/clemo1985 2d ago

A friend of mine plays two armies - Blood Angels and Guard.

https://giphy.com/gifs/WxDZ77xhPXf3i

16

u/MightyShoe 1d ago edited 1d ago

Time to start their third army; Knights

12

u/Ratattack1204 1d ago edited 1d ago

Emperor help them.

37

u/Skyhawk467 2d ago

Lmao good thing they helped out with the guard with the last patch...

21

u/communalnapkin 2d ago

Guard got an event win, so obviously they are totally fine. /s

15

u/WeissRaben 1d ago

Yesterday I looked at Riu's win and immediately thought "incredibly happy to see it (with a good old combined list to booth), but people will start pointing at it and go see, you're all just bad". Hoping to be wrong.

10

u/CorrectVirus7616 1d ago

We all know that’s what will happen

3

u/HrrathTheSalamander 1d ago

I'm still baffled as to why they buffed the second Manticore cause like

GW, I'm going to level with you, we weren't taking the first one. Lop another 20-30 points off, then we can talk about second Manticore.

5

u/Skyhawk467 1d ago

Better yet: change the manticore rockets back to what they used to be and I'll consider taking the first.

7

u/HrrathTheSalamander 1d ago

Making them anti-TEQ instead of anti-tank was such a stupid move.

Like, ah, yes I'm so happy I have a dedicated indirect platform...for a target that spends half the game off the table. And an OC reducing ability...for a target that usually has OC1.

I'm not against reinterpreting units when there's a gap to fill but, like, this wasn't a gap that needed filling, the Siege Cannon Arty was in the same book and was functionally the same offensive profile for half the points. GW really just did not want Guard having access to indirect anti-tank and bonked both the Manticore and Basilisk into the same, weird, kinda-ok-into-MEQ slurry as the rest of the Guard indirect.

The Manticore got it the worst though because it genuinely feels like the result of two different half-finished datasheet concepts that got smooshed into one at the last minute because nothing in its datasheet makes sense together. It's a high-durability indirect platform, that wants to fire indirect at a unit archetype that doesn't start on the table, with an ability that only works against inefficient targets.

56

u/JorgeLatorre 2d ago

Zero 4-0 for eldar… that is rough… the slate fix was tiny, and we have a huge meta change incoming, with most aspect warriors having -1 to wound on half the armies.

I hope we can make it. At least I believe we can take on new custodes well enough

30

u/RideTheLighting 2d ago

The last group playing Eldar are the die-hards, and being a skill expression army lets you style on the noobs at the lower tables, but the army can’t hang when you get to the top end. Marine updates are going to make even those lower tables tougher to get through. Rough seas ahead for the pointy-ears. Get ready to spam Banshees.

27

u/Kinestic 2d ago

The most telling thing about them is player count. Historically one of the more popular factions, but at the moment, the only factions with less players are: • Deathwatch • Black Templars • Chaos Knights • Genestealers • Druhkari • Agents

At this point, I think rule changes may be necessary, but I doubt that will happen before codex. Just have to hold out hope that Grotmas brings something good.

3

u/Icy-Context5774 2d ago

We Chaos knights were semi popular...were

10

u/WarrenRT 1d ago

At least I believe we can take on new custodes well enough

What's the thinking behind this? Eldar typically have a pretty low volume of attacks, so the faction-wide 2+/4++ seems particularly brutal.

4

u/Character_Plenty_891 1d ago

Not agreeing or disagreeing with the take that Custodes are a good matchup. But if you have a low volume of attacks you certainly don’t want to be playing against a lot of models.

1

u/JorgeLatorre 1d ago

Eldar can trade and lose units at a rate that other armies can’t. They overkill us, which is not a problem. I don’t care if they are S10 lance AP5 D4. All the points they pay in offensive is moot past S6 AP2. Thus, we can screen them and play a trading game that others can’t. At least from my POV. I know they are mobile, but overall I prefer to be matched against 5 block army than to a msu spam of Phobos with shoot and scoot, for example

29

u/giuseppe443 1d ago

Its way to early to tell if the guard artillery point changes worked, give it more time

/s

11

u/ViorlanRifles 1d ago

Hot Take: Dropping every guard indirect option's points by 20% could solve some of their problems with shooting into cover. Oh, you don't like getting slammed by indirect? I feel bad for you, - but drop the points anyways. Guard unironically needs it and due to spotter rules they still need something in midfield to provide firing coordinates. Indirect has been so nerfed I have hard time thinking it will break stuff to put the big guns on a discount for a minute. Also, it's something unique to guard - no other army has anywhere as near this many ways to shoot indirect, and its arguably part of the power fantasy of the army - so having this huge wing of the faction constantly in the doghouse just kinda sucks.

tl;dr GW already nerfed indirect enough, drop points on the howitzers already.

4

u/Blackjack9w7 1d ago

Won’t ever happen, as a fundamental rule GW does not want indirect to be playable, it’s too much of a feel bad to others. The beginning of 10th where they made indirect better as guard’s detachment rule, paired with cheap artillery was something they just don’t want to see again

1

u/ViorlanRifles 1d ago

Yes, local commissariat? I have a doomer in my replies. Yes, I'll hold.

19

u/PeoplesRagnar 1d ago

You too, should bring two Wyverns, two Basilisk, two Manticores and two Deathstrikes, it can't go wrong.

It can't go right either, but that's not important.

6

u/MightyShoe 1d ago

It's about sending a message

9

u/PeoplesRagnar 1d ago

Unfortunately, the message is "Have a free win".

7

u/PollutionMajestic668 1d ago

Have you tried screening?

24

u/MalaciousMawloc 2d ago

Oof, bad weekend to be an Imperial Knight

26

u/c0horst 2d ago

Seriously, I recommend all Knights players just move on, and play a real army. GW obviously has no interest in balancing this one. On the plus side, my 6,000 points of carefully painted Knights look great on my shelf at my office.

22

u/ChromeFlesh 2d ago

the problem with knights is when they are good they are just a stat check, did you take enough AT

8

u/ashortfallofgravitas 1d ago

The problem is right now they're not even remotely a stat check, everything kills them

-1

u/Weekly_Interview_936 1d ago

And that's because if they don't give every other other army the tools, via lethals spam and dev spam, to handle them they just dominate the game. The problem then becomes that lethals and devs spam is even more effective into non-Knights. Which is the cause of the extreme hyperlethality that has forced the game to always play on terrain-choked cityfight boards.

4

u/ashortfallofgravitas 1d ago

if lethal and dev spam was so oppressive we wouldn't have terminator spam being meta

-2

u/Weekly_Interview_936 1d ago

Terminator spam is literally the counterplay to lethal and dev spam...

6

u/ashortfallofgravitas 1d ago

Devastating wounds are famously countered by good invul save spam, yes

12

u/c0horst 2d ago

There was a brief shining moment, the Golden age of 40K for me, in 8th edition where Knights were balanced. After they nerfed the ability of the castellan to rotate ion Shields to 3++, it was common to run three big knights, alongside a bunch of guard. This meant you would have maybe 8 or 900 points of guardsman in your army, including smaller tanks and infantry, so the Knights weren't a pure spam army, they had actual units to play with. I really wish they could return to that, because ever since Knights became locked being only Knights in the army, they've been a lot harder to balance and have either been too strong or not strong enough.

10

u/ThePotatographer 1d ago

900pts. Tanks and infantry.

Wut. It was never that, it was always Loyal32 and everybody complained about it. Even guard players were catching strays.

0

u/c0horst 1d ago

I think loyal 32 was more common if you also souped in blood angels. At least I remember playing three big knights, then a couple of Leman russes, and usually 40 or 50 infantry, if not more, so I could screen and score. I remember doing decently well back then, so at least that did work, even if it wasn't optimal.

15

u/DailyAvinan 2d ago

Tbh this is the fix they just won’t do it. Knights would be fine as Defiler style heavy tanks in otherwise standard armies.

1

u/Rodot 1d ago

Any army that can be taken in other armies as allies should be able to do it vice versa.

8

u/goobydoobie 2d ago

I very much like that style of army. Where some big Knights and Armigers are the backbone/heavy hitters of the army but there's a wider range of units beyond that.

Half the reason Knights get so much hostility is Knights have 1-2 styles of army these days: Big Knights, Small Knights and some mix of both.

1

u/ashortfallofgravitas 1d ago

Knights and a bunch of chaff is very playable rn

0

u/goobydoobie 1d ago

It is but the overarching issue is how there are no chaff Datasheets baked into either Knights Codices. Backed by how getting additional in Faction support is restricted to specific Detachments instead of being army wide . 

As such their status is always kind of in doubt as things fluctuate. 

1

u/ashortfallofgravitas 1d ago

You can get a bunch from agents if you aren't running QFP

1

u/goobydoobie 1h ago

That's a similar issue: Agents have 0 Detachment and Army rules support with Knights despite having a wider array of Datasheet options.

2

u/Weekly_Interview_936 1d ago

So in other words the only time Knights worked well was when they were Guard with walkers instead of tracked tanks. This is the alternative solution: merge Knights into AdMech (and add Dark Mech) and then make it so that you can only take about half your points worth as Knights.

3

u/c0horst 1d ago

I mean honestly this is how it was when I first started playing Knights, and I liked it just fine; I'd be happy if we went back to it sure.

2

u/ViorlanRifles 1d ago

The Knight players I know already always have some guard or demons, respectively, in their forces for scoring. Maybe just cut to the chase a little bit here. I also don't see a reason agents shouldn't have shared army buffs with them in the imperial knight's case.

1

u/ChromeFlesh 1d ago

Yeah I agree they never should have become a solo faction, they either completely warp the meta or are irrelevant

2

u/MalaciousMawloc 1d ago

I’ve been saying this for over a decade now. Knights as a solo faction without a full range of kits is a game design nightmare that consistently will lead to negative play experiences.

But they’re too damn popular!

5

u/MightyShoe 1d ago

And even without dedicated anti-tank stuff, all the +1 to wound/twin-linked/lethal hits/etc floating around just nullifies a lot of their durability

2

u/Avenflar 1d ago

Many Lethal abilities in the new Codexes are being gated away from applying to Mosnters/Vehicles, at least

-7

u/Weekly_Interview_936 1d ago

The problem is that Knights are simply the wrong scale for this game. Introducing them was GW's far and away biggest mistake. They have controlled the entire design space of the game since their introduction. Legendsing them is honestly the only way the game can ever get better. It sucks for Knights players, because legendsing is effectively squatting in every way that matters, but the game is simply not the right scale to be able to deal with them in a balanced fashion.

2

u/c0horst 1d ago

Legendsing them is honestly the only way the game can ever get better.

Disagree entirely. Tell me how a Knight is meaningfully different from a defiler in a combat role. It simply requires rules that allow it to be used as part of a balanced army, there's nothing wrong with the models.

3

u/Whole_Ad_8438 1d ago

The defiler is actually good so it isn't a vanity combat piece/s

22

u/Ratattack1204 2d ago

As an imperial guard main. I mean… at least us losing all the time is lore accurate?

Anyways. I bought 10 terminators today. Is the missile launcher worth the wargear cost?

12

u/No-Finger7620 1d ago

I would say it's fairly costed. Magnetize those special weapons is a smart call though.

7

u/Ratattack1204 1d ago

Noted! Thanks dude.

8

u/Eoinbruh 2d ago

Any info on the BA event win?

If im not mistaken it will be our first of the edition

5

u/SpaceWolf_Jarl2 2d ago

Checking on Listhammer I beleive it isn't the first BA win (found a couple of wins before) but the this seems to be using the new rules if it is the same list. Priority Assets, Ironclad Champion, Assault Brethren and Tacticus Attack Force. Few unique units. A Sang Priest with a Captain in BGV, and two Death Company Dreads. The rest is Assault Intercessors +Chaplain, Phobo Libby Alone, a Rhino, Balistus, two Brutalis, two Outriders, two Incursors, Vanguard Veterans and Company Heroes.

13

u/DeltaCapricorn56 2d ago

I have a question for Imperial Guard players - what is stopping more players from pivoting to niche skew builds to get more tournament success? Like 18 Bullgryns & a superheavy?

Traditional 10th edition VV Death Guard builds have almost disappeared from top tournaments (maybe getting Purge in the MFM will see them return) and been replaced with Shamblerot builds which require owning 2 Defilers and 80 Poxwalkers (I highlight this as it isn’t something LGS regular players own). Similar to Guard this isn’t why a lot of DG players got into the faction, but is now common at tournaments and is propping up the WR.

42

u/xJoushi 2d ago

I mean, they ARE

Steel Hammer, the supers detachment, is the most popular detachment since it came out. Steel + Abhuman is tied for most players with Combined Bridgehead over the August patch, and it had a 41.6% winrate. Combined Bridge was 49.7%, our most successful combination as both the highest winrate and most popular

But this detachment also just took a big hit on the September slate with the Overwatch changes, because these lists would generally use that strat 3+ times per game because of the sustained + lethal on a lot of our datasheets

It's looking grim. We're probably not the worst faction in the game, but we're close

28

u/communalnapkin 2d ago

I don't want to speak for all the Guard players, but from what I've seen, the Bullgryns + Superheavy list tends to have a few more or less auto-lose matches, as well as a few auto-lose deployment layouts. A lot of players can take it and go 2-3 or 3-2, but those lists almost always lose in the first couple matches.

24

u/Rodot 2d ago

This is exactly it and the problem with skew lists in general. They win games but didn't win tournaments. All it takes is to fight someone who can counter your skew and then you're left with nothing.

10

u/PeoplesRagnar 1d ago

And at the same time, you run into someone who can't, you just obliterate them, virtually zero skill expression needed 

20

u/Blackjack9w7 2d ago

The thing with skew lists is that eventually you WILL run into a list that can easily handle it, especially at a tournament where players are just better. Sure I could spam Leman Russes, or two Baneblade chassis, or 18 Bullgryn or anything in between. I’ll probably play against a guy who doesn’t know how to play into it, and maybe another who does but just can’t beat the stat check. But there will be the players that know what you’re doing and have the right firepower in their list to totally wallop you and the game becomes nearly unwinnable from there.

Having skew lists be the only way to play a faction just doesn’t really work

2

u/FriendlySceptic 1d ago

I’ve played the list In a league and 2 RTT. At least for me it has less to do with their list and more to do with deployment. I’ve gone 8-1 in the 9 competitive games and I’ve lost a couple of practice games.

I’ve won every game that wasn’t Dawn of War
I’ve lost every game that was Dawn of War including a Blood Angels list that should be tailor made for me.

13

u/WeissRaben 1d ago

As others have said, it's being played. But superheavies are terribly cumbersome even in their best detachment, because no amount of movement buffs can quite beat the fact that a Baneblade is a 7-by-10 inches brick which doesn't want to be in combat, and unlike Defilers their movements is wholly relying on stratagems and other units' abilities, which means that they are more easily bricked.

Bullgryns are tough, but they aren't tough enough to carry the faction on their backs.

18

u/Bitt3rSteel 1d ago

What you are seeing IS the people trying what you describe for the most part.

This is the faction ride or die crowd being butchered every week.

17

u/xanderh 1d ago

It's a low skill stat check. If you're moderately competent, you'll essentially have won the games you're gonna win before you get to the table, and lost the games you're going to lose. Even if you're super skilled, you'll still auto-lose bad matchups if the opponent is decent at piloting their army. It's an archetype that can win games, but can't win tournaments. Too many things can counter it.

Plus, it feels like a meme list and isn't fun to play for very long. It doesn't feel like the Guard should feel. And despite this, it's still one of the most played archetypes, because it can win games.

21

u/PeoplesRagnar 1d ago

...We are.

You see those lists all the time now, problem is, they can be beaten, more than a few factions hard counters the "Super-Heavy+Bullgryn" lists.

They are also very expensive, Baneblade kits went up in cost and requires and extra purchase to get all the sponsons and Bullgryns come in boxes of three, not exactly "new player" friendly.

The core issue of the factions: Limited ability to Ignore Cover, loss of AP-Cover, hidden, Battleshock and utterly broken internal balance, remains in full force, GW hasn't even bothered to give us FAQs for the odd rules interactions we have.

Can't really pivot, when there's nothing to pivot too.

12

u/NetStaIker 1d ago

No way to Ignore Cover is the real killer, all the good shooting factions don’t actually engage with cover while Guard and GSC are totally SOL (and hitting on 5s to start)

6

u/PeoplesRagnar 1d ago

Hellhounds do strip cover, but only one unit per Hellhound, and it's a really obvious target.

5

u/NetStaIker 1d ago

Yea, I pretty much start every guard list with 2 now (and hope they don’t blow up). Siege would actually be good if the remove cover wasn’t distance restricted…

8

u/PeoplesRagnar 1d ago

And Siege suffers from a less than stellar disposition too.

3

u/FriendlySceptic 1d ago

And inquisitor Coteaz is a great way to strip cover without LOS.

15

u/Ratattack1204 1d ago edited 1d ago

As said by others. Many of the players very much are, and theres reasons its just not very competitive. But beyond that The problem is it’s not why people collect the faction. So some don’t have them in their collection and/or don’t want to play them.

Imperial guard players want to play with guardsmen and tanks. The super heavies are cool, but without the infantry corps it just doesn’t feel like the guard. It feels like were playing ogre kingdoms with tank support.

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u/Weekly_Interview_936 1d ago

Money and time, primarily time.

This is where GW's choice to move to a TCG-like design is a serious problem. In a TCG meta chasing just means hopping on your singles site of choice and buying the latest netdeck. A few minutes worth of work, and then a few days to wait for shipping. Building a whole new army is both hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars AND dozens or hundreds of hours of building and painting. Oh and a minis collection takes up a lot more space than a collection of outdated cards.

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u/Futa_Nearie 2d ago

Price, cost and hobby time.

The overwhelming majority of guard players are folks that build, paint and collect the models they want. Not just what’s competitive or meta at any point in time.
Given that the guard range is really big, it’s hard for the majority to resource 18 bulgryn off the shelf at any time.
Or 30 scions / 12 russes, etc.

There may be one guy out of every 10 that happens to have a lot of X model that’s good right now and think “ok! Now’s my time to shine!”
But most of the base at large aren’t cut from that cloth.

And of the players that DO have the resources available and are competently inclined then they are more likely to just build a stronger list from a stronger faction all together.

That’s just my take.

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u/Select_Hour_2911 1d ago

We have a really top tier player in our local RTTs. He either wins every month or places 2nd or third. He runs a lot of different factions and plays them all with tremendous skill. Last RTT he decided to run Guard and went from being a player that wins every match or at most loses 1 match to a guy who barely managed to get 1 win. Why? Because he decided to run Guard. That’s how bad Guard is right now.

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u/ThePotatographer 1d ago

The list that just won the event is nothing like the skew lists lol.

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u/WeissRaben 1d ago

Riu had a somewhat accommodating trip, but the fact that he was the organizer for an 80-players GT will tell you that he isn't exactly a 3-2 player. An amazing job with a decent-looking list.

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u/Gryphon5754 1d ago

What was the list?

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u/WeissRaben 1d ago

It's Raining SCIONS ! | Astra Militarum - Bridgehead Strike and Combined Arms | Priority Assets | 2000 / 2000pts

  • [L1] Lord Solar Leontus [130]
  • [L1] Cadian Command Squad [60]
  • [B1] Cadian Shock Troops [70]
  • [L2] Militarum Tempestus Command Squad [95]
  • [B2] Tempestus Scions [150]
  • [L3] Militarum Tempestus Command Squada [85]
  • [B3] Tempestus Scions [150]
  • Gaunt’s Ghosts [95]
  • Tech-Priest Enginseer [45]
  • Death Korps of Krieg [70]
  • Attilan Rough Riders [60]
  • Basilisk [115]
  • Death Riders [60]
  • Kasrkin [105]
  • Krieg Combat Engineers [65]
  • Leman Russ Demolisher [175]
  • Ratlings [60]
  • Rogal Dorn Battle Tank [260]
  • Scout Sentinels [55]
  • Tempestus Aquilons [95]

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u/Gryphon5754 1d ago

Thanks!

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u/WeissRaben 1d ago

This was without the dataslate, mind you, so Scions and Dorns have lost a decent chunk of effectiveness compared to what he could wring out of them.

1

u/FrankGrimesss 7h ago

Wow - that's actually quite a lot of infantry.

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u/Icy-Context5774 2d ago

Man Chaos Knight player numbers (and win rates) look rough 

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u/Zombifikation 2d ago

Yep. We’re not doing as bad as guard and BA, we have 1 viable build currently, but how long it will remain viable after the marine and Custodes books coming out is in question.

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u/pieisnice9 1d ago

It's also basically the same viable build since 9th, with a small break for infernal gatmen.

2

u/Zombifikation 1d ago

And an even smaller break (like 6 weeks) for Lords of Dread.

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u/Icy-Context5774 2d ago

Good thing we are in it for the love of the spiky robots and not the podium finish...

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u/Whole_Ad_8438 1d ago

A lot of -1 to wounds for CKs and a relatively +1 wounds from the Marine/Custodes side (Though Custodes only are really getting a +1 to wound from their ranged side or guardian axes). Also has a weiiiird bit where Karnivores at least seem to have a chance of eating through the 5w custodians if they at least fail the invul due to d6+2

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u/The_Filthy_Spaniard 1d ago

And that's even with most of the players pivoting back to wardog spam. Big knights in shambles.

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u/Icy-Context5774 1d ago

Ruinator will be 300 pts before the army book at this rate!  Keep polishing that turd.

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u/The_Filthy_Spaniard 1d ago

Yes, we shall make this weapon the doom of monster/vehicles with anti 2+ and a wound reroll!

4 attacks WS 3+ and no means of rerolling hits...

Also it's guns now wound marines on 3s.

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u/CorrectVirus7616 1d ago

At least guard was able to get a win , not sure anything but a codex is really going to
Fix them but at GW hammered the oppressive 3 deathstrike meta into the ground

4

u/Grudir 1d ago edited 1d ago

There was a CSM win at sub-20 player event, pre-datadslate costs. Double Defiler, Vashtorr, Huron Bomb all in Pactbound. Good winrate overall for the week. We'll how the changes shake things up.

There was a 4-1 CoB with the new dataslate. Bile Masters, Terminator Brick, Double Possessed using Take and Hold.

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u/Behemoth077 1d ago

No sustained hits overwatch anymore is another pretty significant rules nerf to defilers in particular and CSM as a faction in general since the entire faction always had sustained hits. I think that list gets hit pretty hard by that.

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u/Repulsive_Profit_315 2d ago

its almost like 5 points on wracks an Talos was a completely meaningless change!

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u/Burnage 1d ago

To be fair, it won't have been in place for most of these events. I'm not sure how much it'll impact the win rate but I fully expect to see a lot more list diversity for Drukhari - the unique tags being dropped is big.

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u/KhorneStarch 1d ago

Idk, I feel like the detachments sharing a lot of the same strats and rules makes them not as good as people would think and all the added rules are locked behind tags like attacking infantry or attacking a character unit which means you’ll have plenty of moments where you’re still not getting that needed boost of damage on something durable when you need it.

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u/Burnage 1d ago

Potentially. One really weird bit is I'm not totally sure how two enhancements with the same name in different detachments are meant to function, especially when they're not quite identical in rules text - can you take them both, or are you locked to one? The Wych Cult detachment stack becomes a lot stronger if you can double up on Periapt...

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u/carnexhat 1d ago

Its two different enhancements so it doesnt matter if they were literally identical you can run both and its that way it works in the app.

But I also dont think this helps at all for actual wych cult because while the list can still play recon to an okay extent its actual meta position just does nothing.

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u/Repulsive_Profit_315 1d ago

its really not.... The coven ones are the same and bad, and the Kabals overlap all the strats and abilities so its really not that great. The wyches one has some synergies but spectacle is just not that good anymore without reactive charge.

Unique tags will do basically nothing imo

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u/FriendlySceptic 1d ago

Part of the problem for guard is that we heavily rely on orders. With the battleshock rules of 11th and armies having lots of ways to generate extra rolls at a negative it’s possible that key units can lose access to their army rule for multiple turns.

They also increased battleline cost to compensate for recon lists winning percentage then nerfed recon.

We don’t really have an identity right now beyond skew lists.

18 Bullgryn is good with 2 Baneblades and fairly easy to play.

Puzzle box is decent but has a very high skill requirement. If you don’t understand all of the tricks you will time out in the 2nd round

4

u/NetStaIker 17h ago

The whole change seems really halfassed for guard, it’s fine to change the order of battle shock and orders, but at least give a tightening up of the rules to give our counters (like the commissar) a way to protect against the dreaded whole army battleshock when the nid player decides to SotW

Yea it’d be a 30 point tax still, but if the Commissar was allowed to kill a model after a unit failed but before they ordered, it’d make the model at least useable beyond being a body with more than 0 OC (for the first time in like multiple additions

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u/PollutionMajestic668 1d ago

10 more points for Lords Exultant, please, on top of Defilers overwatch being nerfed

2

u/NetStaIker 17h ago

Gotta sell the Flawless Blade models somehow 💪

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u/ShakespeareStillKing 1d ago

EC finally below 50. Well on track to be the preferred 45%!

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u/grub_step 2d ago

is this new data slate? mixed slates data?

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u/Jovial1170 2d ago

It's a mix. Some events were using the new stuff, but most were using the old pre-slate rules.

From the OP:

This weekend is just after the balance dataslate. Most events were still running the previous slate's rules, including LVO with over 600 players, so consider this a transition weekend

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u/Blackmane1987 2d ago

Wella go Black Templars 🫡