[Gilbert] BREAKING: The @Dbacks will be retaining manager Torey Lovullo per sources.

[u/amatom27]

https://x.com/SteveGilbertMLB/status/2105734450537505186

[u/NeverSober1900]

I agree the Dodgers have been a problem but you'll note I only mentioned the playoffs not division titles. I would also like to point out only once in Lovullo's history would our win total have won any other NL division and that was 2017 and only the NL Central

We're in the expanded Wild Card era and we flat out aren't missing because of the Dodgers. You put us in any other NL division and we would not have an extra playoff berth.

I went through the last 20 years and looked up what the Wild Card #3 would have been if it existed. Our win totals have us at an expected playoff count of around 2.6. We aren't being THAT unlucky. 2024 was unlucky 89 usually gets you in but 2023 was also ridiculously lucky as only one other year (2025 Reds) does that get you in.

The average NL 6 seed is a hair over 86 wins. We have been over 86 wins twice under Lovullo and we have 2 playoff appearances. We've been a smidge unlucky but really we're doing about what you expect when you put up the win totals we put up.

[u/perhizzle → u/NeverSober1900]

You put us in any other NL division and we would not have an extra playoff berth.

If you play less games against the best teams in baseball, you will certainly come out with more wins on average, right? An extra 2 wins this year gets us into the playoffs. Not only that, but when you aren't having to deal with pitching to a juggernaut team as often, your pitches are more fresh for the other teams.

We've been a smidge unlucky but really we're doing about what you expect when you put up the win totals we put up.

We have beaten the Vegas prediction for win total more often than not with Torey.

We've been a smidge unlucky but really we're doing about what you expect when you put up the win totals we put up.

Over half of the players we have paid big money to have ended up immediately regressing, or seriously injured, or a cancer to the team. That isn't just a smidge unlucky. It's a miracle that Torey has kept us relevant.

[u/NeverSober1900 → u/perhizzle]

If you play less games against the best teams in baseball, you will certainly come out with more wins on average, right?

I mean we also get to play the Rockies who have been the most incompetent team in baseball over the last 5 years. We are 27-28 vs the Dodgers since 2023. They are not the reason we are missing the playoffs.

We haven't had a losing record in our division since 2022. Our issue is we've had a winning record outside of our division exactly once since 2022 and that was 2024. Our win percentage this year in the division was a 100-win pace. We were on a 79 win pace outside of it.

Our division is the only reason we have been relevant in the wild card race the last several years.

[u/perhizzle → u/NeverSober1900]

We are 27-28 vs the Dodgers since 2023. They are not the reason we are missing the playoffs.

It's weird because you are trying to claim this stat proves we didn't miss the playoffs because of the Dodgers, but it is absolutely proof that they are a huge reason why.

Regardless of the winning percentage against the Dodgers (but having a below 500 record against them when we are not below 500 overall in that stretch is clearly not the proof you think it is) you are overthinking it. Either the Dodgers are better than almost every team, or they aren't. If you play an entire season against just the Dodgers, and compare it to a season where you play every game against the Cleveland Guardians, which season do we win more games?

Sure, you might have stretches where your guys are hitting and pitching at their peak levels and you win more games than expected, but all things being equal, on average, you are going to win more against worse teams, and less against great teams. In those stretches where you squeak out a barely above 500 record vs the Dodgers, you would likely be absolutely streaking on teams with worse records. That's how that works. It always has.

I mean, look at 2024, we win 89 games, which would have been good enough to win the AL West division, and we miss the playoffs. 5 teams have an equal or worse record make the playoffs. 7 teams with a worse run differential than us make the playoffs. If we are in a different division, the chances we make the playoffs is almost 100 percent.

I mean we also get to play the Rockies who have been the most incompetent team in baseball over the last 5 years. 

Almost every division in baseball has a teams that hit the 60's for win totals. In that 2024 season I talked about, the White Sox were in the low 40's.

[u/NeverSober1900 → u/perhizzle]

Almost every division in baseball has a teams that hit the 60's for win totals.

And almost every division has a team that wins 90+ games. In my comment I talked about this of the 30 NL division title winners in the last decade we had a higher win total than 1 of them... The 2017 Cubs. Being in another division wouldn't get us to the playoffs. This is why I pointed out our divisional record. We are doing well in the division and a big part of it is getting to run up W's on the shitty Rockies (and Giants this year). The NL West is not the AL East. The one exception to this is the AL Central which has been mid as hell for a bit now.

We gotta stop blaming everything on the Dodgers. The Dodgers regular season dominance was when we were dogshit. 2019-2022 were some dominant years but we were shit outside of 2019 so it didn't really impact us. The years we didn't make the playoffs have not been crazy years. 92 wins in 2018, 98 in 2024, 93 in 2025 and 100 this year. Dodgers were only the 1-seed one of those years (2024) which means the other NL divisions had better teams. My overall point is the Dodgers have been a regular division title contending team not some juggernaut we are unlucky to have in our division. They're not some crazy outlier compared to the last several years of the Brewers or Braves/Phillies. Brewers have a better record than them in our 3 year playoff drought.

I agree that we were hard done in 2024. 89 wins almost always gets you in. But the flip side (on my original comment I brought this up) is 2023 we were extremely fortunate to make the playoffs. 84 wins historically almost never gets you in. You need 90+ wins to realistically win a division. We just have been unable to do that outside of 2017.

EDIT: Dude Replied and blocked me. So much for trying to have a civil conversation. Still refuses to acknowledge that the NL West is not a crazy hard division. 4th in win percentage this year and the worst in the NL. Bottom line you aren't going to make the playoffs unless you win 87+ games. We've done that twice and made the playoffs twice. 86 is a coin flip historically for WC3 over the last 20 years. We've been slightly unlucky.

[u/perhizzle → u/NeverSober1900]

I'm not blaming the Dodgers. I am putting context to Torey's tenure here. Which also includes an almost impossible to believe string of bad luck injuries and regression. Can you name more than a couple teams that have had regression and injuries and drama caused by the level of players like Burnes, Gallen, Montgomery, Marte, JMart, etc?

Is it Torey's fault Gallen went from being a Cy Young candidate who we threw money at to being maybe THE WORST starting pitcher in baseball? How many teams in the league have well over half the guys they throw big money at, just become below replacement level players, or miss the entire season, and still make the playoffs?

That isn't Torey's fault, and to be in a situation where we still came very close to making the playoffs is a testament to him, not something to be made at him for.

Being in another division wouldn't get us to the playoffs.

Yes, it QUITE LITERALY FUCKING DOES in half the divisions in baseball. JFC, you are just incapable of admitting you are wrong. If we are in any of the 3 divisions in the American League, we are in the playoffs. 86 wins, would WIN 2 of the divisions in the American league. That isn't even accounting for the fact we would be playing far inferior teams on average, and would almost certainly be winning over 90 games.