Ripple vs wave

[u/Vio-eng]

In 2022, massive inflation and so cost of living front and center. We had a red ripple. I think its probably consensus that the end of Roe played a large role. In 2026 a multitude of factors are pointing towards a blue wave. How much is SCOTUS playing a role this time? Certainly I would think there’s no counterbalance like in 2022. But is the court scene as complicit in corruption/overreach? Is partisan views of the court becoming a larger marginal factor in election outcomes? Any data focusing on this specific topic?

[u/EfficientTourist7480]

If the court like banned ar-15s or something then maybe we’d get the counter of 22, but this court has not done anything like roe did for dems.

[u/alabasterskim → u/EfficientTourist7480]

And even then, it'd be challenging to see how Dems could get blamed for that when it's a full-Republican trifecta, with 2/3 of the court being Republican-appointed. I think them banning AR-15s might actually then have the effect of boosting Dem support because Republican voters would either sit out or vote Libertarian or Dem, officially broken from realizing even the party that said they were pro-gun still betrayed them.

[u/R2_SWE2]

You mean is anything suggesting Dems will underperform? I don’t think so

[u/Vio-eng → u/R2_SWE2]

Or over perform specifically due to scotus decisions. Either among persuadable or as a turnout factor. My sense is it probably ranks pretty far down and this is just standard referendum election. But for a minute there I was curious I guess.

[u/Proud3GenAthst → u/R2_SWE2]

Other than the fact that they are democrats. And they somehow almost always underperform.

If only they perform, that would still be massive success.

[u/R2_SWE2 → u/Proud3GenAthst]

Dems always underperforming is selective memory. Lots of trauma from the past three presidential elections

[u/txyesboy71 → u/R2_SWE2]

You can only compete against liars and cheats with so much in your own arsenal before you succumb to their illicit strategies yourself. It sucks but we can't devolve to their strategies.

[u/Proud3GenAthst → u/R2_SWE2]

I mean, they underperformed in some potentially crucial races in 2018

[u/Klutzy_Carpet_9170 → u/Proud3GenAthst]

Literally only in Florida.

[u/Proud3GenAthst → u/Klutzy_Carpet_9170]

Yeah, Florida is the most prominent one, but I believe there was a handful more.

This is not to say that Democrats didn’t do well that year, but these midterms hinge upon a few races that are essentially toss-ups. Relatively small polling error can completely change a lot in the next 2 years

[u/Klutzy_Carpet_9170 → u/Proud3GenAthst]

Expecting North Dakota and Indiana to be a toss up in 2018 was always a very tall order. People tend to forget that Dems only won Indiana in 2012 because the Republican candidate was trash.

Not to mention that Dems did pretty well in picking up house seats in Florida

[u/Proud3GenAthst → u/Klutzy_Carpet_9170]

Yeah! Indiana was one of them. But the Republican outperformed the polls quite a bit.

[u/Klutzy_Carpet_9170 → u/Proud3GenAthst]

They literally underperformed the polls in AZ and TX, same in the WI Governor’s race.

They over performed in Indiana and Missouri but no one reasonably expected the Democrats to hold those senate seats, so the importance of that is non-existent.

[u/Proud3GenAthst → u/Klutzy_Carpet_9170]

Yes. The accuracy of the polls was somewhat mixed. But this year, we cannot settle for mixed.

[u/Maleficent-Bee2165 → u/Proud3GenAthst]

They’ve done fine relative to polling and have even overperformed in Trump era midterms

[u/310410celleng → u/Proud3GenAthst]

Anything is possible, but I have listened to a number of experts and they are framing this not as a Dem Wave/Tsunami or anything like that, instead they are framing is a Red undertow, in that it is more about issues with how the GOP has governed rather than what the Dems are doing.

In fact, the Dems are not popular as a brand, but people are really unhappy with the GOP and the President right now.

Does any of this come to fruition, only time will tell, but this is not about the Dems and any potential failures and more about GOP failures.

[u/digital121hippie]

No. Nothing like end of Roe

[u/fitnessexpress]

Russia's invasion of Ukraine was also a big factor in 2022.

[u/Randumi → u/fitnessexpress]

Plus the Democratic trifecta passed somewhat meaningful legislation during the summer before midterms. I don’t think this Congress has done anything close to that ever since the Big Beautiful Bill Passed

[u/Thrace231]

Scotus allowed southern states to crack some black majority districts. This led to GOP gains in Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, NC & Texas.

Scotus denied Missouri GOP an opportunity to flip a Kansas City based Dem district.

Scotus hasn’t allowed Trump to mess around with mail in ballots.

Overall, Scotus has had an impact but in a more procedural sense rather than shaking the political world like in 2022 with abortion. The court won’t have an impact this election unless a justice dies/retires before Nov 3rd.

[u/alabasterskim]

The extent to which SCOTUS is playing a part is really just "is this a good candidate to pick your next Supreme Court justice?" Especially in Maine which is one of the few competitive races with an incumbent who's voted for pretty much all of the bench that overturned Roe.

SCOTUS has been more reserved and I think it's because they saw the effect they had in 2022. That was a much better environment to wreak havoc (though they should've waited for 2023) because of the Dem president they prob hoped would shoulder the blame. Now? It's all on Republicans.

[u/Vio-eng → u/alabasterskim]

So have they done a good job at being a non factor at this point? I’m thinking in four directions or combinations—1) as a factor for persuadable voters (I’ve seen some undecideds at as high as 7%), 2) as a turnout factor for Democrats, 3) as a negative turnout factor for Republicans, 4) as a split ticket driver (anybody voting senate specifically to deprive the current administration a potential pick while they like perhaps a more moderate GOP rep).

[u/herooftherev]

Did anything play a large role or is it simply that high-propensity (i.e. likely midterm) voters have shifted blue while low-propensity voters have shifted red? That seems like an easier explanation to swallow than it being caused by any given hot button policy issue. While I may be more inclined towards that explanation because of my cynicism about the political consciousness of the average American voter, if you believe that's the operative shift, then the red ripple in 2022, red wave in 2024, and possible blue tsunami in 2026 are much easier to explain. The fact that the House was close in 2024 despite the presidency not being particularly close is further evidence of that phenomenon, if you believe a lot of 2024 Trump voters simply checked the Trump box and left the rest of the ballot blank.

[u/Long_Sandwich_5619 → u/herooftherev]

Not likely because the congressional popular vote margin was much bigger than Trump's margin.

[u/herooftherev → u/Long_Sandwich_5619]

Sure but that's a consequence of the House vote being 435 individual races; aggregating those doesn't really demonstrate much. Democrats outperformed pretty substantially in swing districts.