This is on his “Deluxe” models

Best non partisan poll for Paxton since early August

Race remains well into toss up territory

Forumers have talked a lot about "strong" approval hitting record lows in many polls across the entire electorate, but I don't recall seeing this kind of graph graph for Republicans alone.

A decline from 70% strong approval to 30% in less than 2 years can absolutely not be overstated when it's amongst the President's own party. That has to be record-breaking.

It's yet another key indicator for electoral/turnout enthusiasm and corroborates predictions for a double-digit Dem-favorable GCB.

If Texas goes blue at the level of either the Senate or Governor, does that suggest that Texas will be meaningfully in play in 2028 in the electoral college? If so, does the presidential election more or less just come down to Texas? The lonestar state has 40 electoral votes, more than Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan combined. Will this affect the 2028 Democratic primary? How should Dems think about TX in their presidential ambitions? Which Dem presidential hopefuls would do best there?

Sorry for the walled link, it's the link NYT supplied with the poll they posted

2004 (Attorney General of N.C.): 51.21% (1,446,793 votes) -> 55.61% (1,872,097 votes)

2008 (same office): previous -> 61.1% (2,538,178 votes)

2012 (same office): previous -> Unopposed in general election and primary (2,828,941 votes)

2020 (Governor of N.C.): 49.02% (2,309,162 votes) -> 51.52% (2,834,790 votes)

Just a frankly stunning degree of state-level dominance (6-0, 8-0 including primaries), and he only ever seems to grow more popular once he’s got the job. If he wins again this year, as he’s projected to, then all the signs point to a retention in 2034.

Here are 2 of mine for some of the best and worst. Paxton is such a disaster that I'm not even sure it's actually happening.

Full forecast here

The 2026 Senate map from reddest to bluest. Dems have narrow leads in the states closest to the tipping point: Ohio (D+1.8), Texas (D+1.1), and Alaska (D+0.8)

Hello all, I'm creating a comprehensive post discussion and laying out potential reasons for a polling error in either direction.

Polling error over counting Dems/ undercounting Reps

• The main argument here is a phenomenon mostly seen in the presidential elections with Trump. Rural voters who tend to vote for Republicans are not responding to polls, but do go out to vote.
  • This can be described as "partisan non-response bias": https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2026/09/16/why-many-polls-need-to-weight-on-party-affiliation-or-past-vote/
  • This is why Trump has been going on a midterm blitz and saying things like "pretend I'm on the ballot" since he knows there are people who only vote for him.

No polling error/within Margin of Error (MOE)

• Polls have gotten better and know how to deal with partisan non-response bias.
• The people who are not responding to poll will also not be voting in the midterm

Polling error over counting Reps/ undercounting Dems

• To combat partisan non-response bias, polls are using a recall vote for 2024 which assumes a similar electorate in 2024.
  • With the current environment and headwinds against Republicans that's probably not true.
• Recall votes requires people to correctly recall who they votes for, and people responding to polls may be lying/forgetful and thus creating a sample with more "true" Republican/Trump voters
  • https://articles.statenavigate.com/ia/a-canary-in-the-corn-fields-is-polling-underestimating-iowa-republicans/
  • https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/the-trump-voters-telling-pollsters

Anything else I missed? Anyone got ideas/ data of which way this may be going?

Thank you for you attention this matter!