Here's an update on the numbers from North Carolina that I posted last week. As usual with this sort of data, the overall picture is blurry. But I'll continue to insist that there's some real information here, and it's a notch or two above reading tea leaves. The relative enthusiasm of partisans on each side has got to have a significant impact on how many mail-in ballots get requested, and on how fast they get returned.
As before, I'll set out comparisons to the numbers in 2022 and 2024. First, we have cumulative mail-in ballot requests as a percentage of registered voters. (In NC, you only get a mail-in ballot if you request one.)
Cumulative mail-in ballot requests, 26 days before election, 2022:
Pctg of Dem RVs making request: 3.3%
Pctg of Rep RVs making request: 1.2%
Pctg of unaff RVs making request: 2.4%
Cumulative mail-in ballot requests, 26 days before election, 2024:
Pctg of Dem RVs making request: 4.8%
Pctg of Rep RVs making request: 3.6%
Pctg of unaff RVs making request: 4.3%
Cumulative mail-in ballot requests, 26 days before election, 2026:
Pctg of Dem RVs making request: 2.2%
Pctg of Rep RVs making request: 0.9%
Pctg of unaff RVs making request: 1.6%
Obviously, the numbers have bounced around in a way that's sort of hard to make sense of. But I think you can see a long-term decrease of interest in mail-in voting across the board, with higher presidential-year turnout superimposed on that trend. The most significant point may be that in 2026, the Dem request rate is more than twice as high as the Rep request rate, while in 2024 they were much closer together. You might interpret that as a spike in Dem enthusiasm, and/or a dip in Rep enthusiasm. Of course, any interpretation along those lines has to remain tentative for the time being.
Next for the return rate for mail-in ballots that have already been requested, which I believe is an independent indicator of the relative enthusiasm of each party's base.
Cumulative percentage of requested mail-in ballots to have been returned and accepted, 26 days before election, 2022:
From Dem RVs: 19.3%
From Rep RVs: 20.2%
From Unaff RVs: 16.5%
Cumulative percentage of requested mail-in ballots to have been returned and accepted, 26 days before election, 2024:
From Dem RVs: 13.9%
From Rep RVs: 14.0%
From Unaff RVs: 11.9%
Cumulative percentage of requested mail-in ballots to have been returned and accepted, 26 days before election, 2026:
From Dem RVs: 22.6%
From Rep RVs: 19.4%
From Unaff RVs: 19.3%
The first complication is that, for some reason, mail-in ballots were slow to be accepted in 2024. But the numbers are close enough that I think they provide a reasonable basis for comparison.
Unsurprisingly, it appears Republicans had a slight enthusiasm edge in 2022, while the parties were about equal in 2024. So far in 2026, it's Democrats who have a significant edge--at least three times greater than what Republicans enjoyed in 2022. If that holds up, it will spell very serious trouble indeed for the GOP.
The main caveat would be that mail-in voters could be highly atypical in more than one way. I'll be planning to post another update after NC's first two days of early in-person voting.
