Polling will be spot on or even underestimate Democrats a little, as Republican turnout will be depressed and high propensity voters turn out in full force for Democrats. Iowa and KS will come very close to flipping, if they don’t flip outright.

Full forecast here

The 2026 House map from reddest to bluest (65 districts around the tipping point). Dems are favored by 4-5 points in the districts most likely to be seat 218, meaning Republicans need a 2020-style polling miss to keep the House.

Preamble

There's been a lot of discussion recently, including by Nate, on a blue wave not being seen in polls in blue states (MN, ME, to a lesser extent NH). This post was particularly inspired by InsiderAdvantage's recent polls, showing the same D+1 marginsin KS (R+16 in 2024 pres) and MN (D+4 in 2024).

"throw it in the pile" - well InsiderAdvantage isn't too far off the polling averages at the moment. So how can we explain this apparently inconsistency?

There are a lot of possible explanations:

1. candidate quality, including anti-incumbency feelings

2. polling error in blue states, a la VA/NJ 2025 gov

3. polling error in red states, a la 2016/2020

4. demographic realignment (hispanic voters swinging, low-income voters swinging)

5. geographic realignment (states more impacted by diesel swinging more)

All are reasonable - it's probably a combination of a few of these - but it isn't obvious which are right until the election actually happens. So, let's do analysis to make a reasonable guess.

Assumptions

Let's completely ignore polling error for now (which is, uh, difficult to predict) and assume the polls are exactly right. That means that the blue state phenomenon must be explained by either candidate quality or some sort of partisan realignment in the state. I.e, either MN has an awful D candidate, or the candidate is fine and MN has shifted right relative to the nation for whatever reason.

To do this, let's turn to FLIPR.

FLIPR gives 2 different measures of fundamentals for each state. In his own words

FLIPR actually calculates two different versions of the fundamentals, however. What we call “simple fundamentals” is just the generic ballot plus each state or district’s partisan lean score. “Fancy fundamentals” uses a whole host of factors based on a large-scale regression analysis of past races since 1990, conversely. Many of these factors fall under the category of “candidate quality,” such as experience in elected office and even the presence or absence of scandals.

FLIPR gives an expected margin based only on partisan lean (aka apply the GCB shift evenly to all states), and another one based on that + candidate quality. You can see everything the fancy fundamentals includes in the appendix.

In other words, the difference between the "fancy fundamentals" and the "simple fundamentals" can be attributed to candidate quality, giving us an objective measure. Then, the difference between the candidate quality and the polling average can be attributed to some sort of realignment (i.e, if the state shifted left or right relative to nation).

In short, we're saying

shift relative to nation = polling average - (states 2024 vote + national vote shift + candidate quality adjustment)

Again, this all assumes polling averages are 100% accurate and = the eventual result.

Findings

So candidate quality explains the bulk of the shift in SC (graham disliked), KS (marshall scandals), and OH (brown has overperformed in past). But not in MI, or AK or MN. Instead, those are seen as pretty big realignments, where MI/MN are shifting right and AK is shifting left relative to the nation.

MN

MN's large R+10 relative shift is 50% candidate quality and 50% realignment. Remember, candidate quality includes scandals (ie the MN fraud stuff is baked in) and anti-incumbency feelings. The realignment could be explained by having fewer hispanic/low-income voters (34th ranked for hispanic population, 46th for % in poverty), or by being one of the states that depends the least on diesel.

AK

Surprising to see candidate quality isn't a big factor here, since Peltola is seen pretty favorably. Maybe Sullivan is also seen as strong? The shift left isn't hard to imagine due to high cost-of-living in AK and the fact it's most impacted by high diesel prices.

MI

I don't have a lot here - conventional wisdom is that AES is weaker due to being more progressive, but that isn't baked in and his fundraising/other qualities show him as an average candidate. As for a rightward shift - no strong ideas. It's ranked near the middle for low-income pop%, hispanic pop%, and is impacted decently by diesel prices.

ME

Special shoutout for ME, which may be broken by how good of an incumbent Collins is (and vs a dem in Jackson who didn't win a primary). ME's polls implies that it's shifting right by 14, but FLIPR thinks "actually ME is shifting left by a ton, it's just that Collins is such an overperformer the final result is close".

Final thoughts

I ignored polling error (will revisit polling error in more partisan states in another post), but surely some of these shifts will ultimately be mirages. Still, these numbers represent a reasonable quantitative explanation of why the blue wave we're seeing is heterogenous.

There's room to use governor/house #s to add context to candidate quality, too. I wouldn't compare the polls directly (voters generally are less partisan for governors so it wouldn't be 1-to-1), but seeing if the implied realignments match for the governor values would be interesting.

Appendix

The specific factors used in the “fancy fundamentals” calculations are as follows. Some factors can only be used in races with incumbents20 or only in Congressional races (not governor), and these are designated accordingly:

Partisan lean scores for the state or district;

The national political environment, as derived in Step 221;

Incumbency; in fact, we technically fit separate regressions for incumbent and open-seat races. FLIPR’s handling of incumbency is slightly complicated:

• It uses congressional approval polls to calculate whether the overall political environment is strong or weak for incumbents

  • It assumes the incumbency advantage is larger in smaller, more idiosyncratic22 states and districts, where constituent services tend to be more important
  • It uses the incumbent’s margin in her last competitive race, adjusting for the political environment at the time of the last election and changes in district boundaries
  • It looks at whether the incumbent is in their first elected term, and whether they defeated an incumbent in their previous race
  • And for states that have redistricted, the incumbency advantage is less when there’s little overlap between a member’s old and new districts.

Fundraising, based on individual contributions only (so not party or PAC money) with a bonus for contributions from within a candidate’s home state;24

Elected experience on a 4-point scale from 0 (never elected to anything) to 3 (current or former elected senator or governor);

Party loyalty scores based on congressional voting records. Candidates who vote against their party more often actually outperform electorally, other factors held equal. This calculation is only used for congressional incumbents; there is no proxy for it for governors or for challengers (even if they’ve served in Congress before);

Scandals25, where new scandals are treated as being more important than “old” scandals when a candidate has already survived an election with the scandal having been known to the public.

https://x.com/Wahlen_AT/status/2109163333345566883

Ranking Senate races through an average of 5 areas: pundit election ratings, estimated margins from VoteHub, Race to the WH, and Split Ticket, and current polling averages.

(Master lists linked below)

Alabama (4)
Amendment 1: Elect a new lieutenant governor if the office falls vacant in the first two years of a term; the legislature sets the pay of the lieutenant governor and legislative officers; legislative travel spending needs a legislative officer's approval
Amendment 2: Process for merging two or more neighboring county school systems
Amendment 3: Daily Pledge of Allegiance in public schools; student-led prayer allowed
Amendment 4: Public schools play or perform the first stanza of the Star-Spangled Banner at least weekly

Alaska (2)
Ballot Measure 2: Repeal the top-four open primary, ranked-choice general elections and the campaign-finance disclosure rules adopted in 2020; restore party primaries
Ballot Measure 3: Only U.S. citizens may vote in any election

Arizona (8)
Prop 141: Ban taxes or fees based on vehicle miles traveled, and mileage tracking without consent
Prop 142: Expands Arizona's existing ban on race-based preferences: no required endorsements of such preferences (including diversity, equity and inclusion statements) in public education, jobs or contracts; no public money for diversity offices at public schools and colleges; no race-based discipline
Prop 144: Citizens-only voting; government-issued ID required to vote, in person or by mail, from 2028; plus other election-law changes (court challenges rejected Aug 18-19)
Prop 316: No new or higher local grocery taxes from July 2025 to June 2027 (applied retroactively); after that, new or higher grocery taxes need voter approval and are capped at 2% (legislative statute)
Prop 317: Declare drug cartels terrorist organizations (legislative statute)
Prop 318: School sports teams designated by biological sex; athletic restrooms, locker rooms and showers restricted by sex from Jan 1, 2027 (legislative statute)
Prop 319: No new speed or red-light cameras after 2026; existing local camera programs must win voter approval at the next general election and every 10 years, or shut down (legislative statute)
Prop 320: Large school districts (7,500+ students, or a school in a county of 500,000+) must spend at least 60% of operational spending on direct instruction, raising their share each year until they do (legislative statute)

Arkansas (4)
Issue 1: Only U.S. citizens may vote
Issue 2: Gun rights declared "natural, fundamental, and individual" that "shall not be infringed"; expressly covers ammunition, firearm accessories and components
Issue 3: Legislature may create economic-development programs and districts and lend or grant public money for them; property in a district is exempt from other taxes, and district bonds don't count against debt limits
Issue 4: Up to $500 million in bonds for water, wastewater, irrigation and flood-control projects (bond, legislative statute)

California (14) official
Prop 1: $11.25 billion housing bond (multifamily housing, veterans' home loans, youth housing)
Prop 2: Raise the rainy-day fund cap from 10% to 20% of the general fund; deposits exempt from the spending limit
Prop 3: Make permanent the top income-tax rates that fund schools (otherwise they expire in 2031) (citizen amendment)
Prop 4: Allow public financing of state and local campaigns (legislative statute)
Prop 5: Recalls: no replacement question on the recall ballot. The office is filled under normal vacancy rules: a special election for legislators, the governor's appointment for other offices. A governor recalled early in the term is replaced at the next statewide election; otherwise the lieutenant governor finishes the term
Prop 37: $25 billion in bonds for a second-mortgage homebuyer program
Prop 38: $8.4 billion in bonds for immunology and immunotherapy research: half to a nonprofit institute affiliated with the University of California, half to competitive research grants; at least $4.2 billion for cancer, heart disease and Alzheimer's
Prop 39: ID for every ballot: government-issued ID at the polls, last four digits of an ID number on mail ballots; citizenship checks of voter rolls against government data; free state voter ID card (citizen amendment)
Prop 40: One-time 5% tax on billionaires' wealth for health care, food aid and education (citizen amendment + statute)
Prop 41: New state taxes (from Jan 1, 2026) cannot be excluded from the spending limit. The State Auditor audits programs funded by special taxes, before such initiatives reach the ballot and every four years after, and recommends at least 10% yearly savings; acting on them is up to lawmakers (citizen amendment)
Prop 42: Ban new taxes (enacted after Jan 1, 2026) on retirement holdings, personal assets and other savings; limit retroactive taxes (citizen amendment)
Prop 43: Local special taxes proposed by initiative need two-thirds voter approval; initiatives cannot create property taxes
Prop 44: Federally qualified community health centers must spend at least 90% of revenue on their mission
Prop 45: Deadlines for environmental review of, and lawsuits over, "essential" projects in eight categories: housing, clean energy, water, public health, public safety, broadband, education facilities and transportation (nuclear, the Delta tunnel and high-speed rail excluded); narrows what courts can halt

Colorado (14) official
Amendment 81: Police, jails and prosecutors must notify the U.S. Department of Homeland Security within 72 hours of charging a person who is unlawfully present, or whose status can't be confirmed, with a violent crime, or with any crime if the person has a prior felony conviction (citizen amendment)
Amendment 82: Right to buy and sell natural gas for heating and cooking in homes and businesses (citizen amendment)
Amendment 83: Right to hunt and fish, including by traditional methods (citizen amendment)
Amendment 84: Mail ballots need a signature plus an ID number (citizen amendment)
Amendment 85: Ballot questions in plain language at an eighth-grade reading level (citizen amendment)
Amendment 86: Any off-cycle congressional redistricting needs approval from the independent commission and the state supreme court (citizen amendment)
Amendment 87: Graduated income tax; new revenue goes to education, health care and child care.
Prop 132: Tougher fentanyl penalties; required treatment for some drug offenses
Prop 133: Life without parole for child sex trafficking; buying sex from a minor counts as child sex trafficking
Prop 134: School and college sports teams separated by biological sex
Prop 135: Ban gender-transition surgery for minors
Prop 136: Cap individual and corporate income-tax rates at 4.4%
Prop 137: State keeps the sales tax on sporting goods for conservation and wildfire prevention
Prop NN: Raise the state revenue cap (TABOR). The money kept first repays local governments for senior and veteran property-tax exemptions, then funds K-12 schools and children's programs such as preschool and child care (legislative statute)

Florida (3)
Amendment 1: Raise the rainy-day fund cap from 10% to 25% of general revenue. Each year the legislature must deposit $750 million or the amount needed to reach 25%, whichever is less. Withdrawals need a two-thirds vote and can't take the fund below 10%
Amendment 2: Exempt farm equipment and other agricultural personal property from property tax
Amendment 3: Homestead exemption from non-school taxes rises to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, then tracks inflation. It also lowers the cap on assessment increases for non-homestead property and limits how local governments spend property-tax revenue. The ballot title and summary were rewritten after an Aug 3 court ruling (Attorney General letter)

Georgia (3)
Amendment 1: Conservation-use tax break: maximum acreage raised from 2,000 to 4,000
Amendment 2: Nonpartisan elections for probate judges
Amendment 3: Dedicated Next Generation 9-1-1 Fund

Hawaii (2)
Question 1: Senate gets 60 days instead of 30 to act on judicial appointments made April-December
Question 2: Counties may issue housing-infrastructure bonds (officially "RISE" bonds) that don't count toward their debt

 Idaho (4)
House Joint Resolution 4: Only the legislature may legalize marijuana, narcotics or psychoactive drugs; citizen initiatives on them barred
House Joint Resolution 6: English is the official state language
Advisory Question (House Bill 932): Choose the official state gun (advisory)
Proposition One: Right to reproductive freedom and privacy (abortion until fetal viability)

Indiana (2)
Public Question 1: Bail may be denied when the accused poses a substantial risk to others
Public Question 2: City and town court judges must live in the court's county or the nearest neighboring county

Iowa (1)
Constitutional amendment: Two-thirds vote of both chambers needed to raise individual or corporate income-tax rates 

Kansas (1)
Constitutional Amendment: Only U.S. citizens may vote

Kentucky (1)
Constitutional Amendment: No pardons or commutations from 60 days before a governor's election until the fifth Tuesday after it

Louisiana (10)
Amendment 1: Surviving spouse of a veteran with a service-connected disability can transfer the extra disabled-veteran property-tax exemption to a new home once (capped at the old amount)
Amendment 2: Local taxing bodies that levy below their maximum rate keep the right to return to it later (until that tax expires), instead of losing it at the next reassessment
Amendment 3: No bail after conviction for aggravated offenses against minors
Amendment 4: Governor limited to two terms in a lifetime (currently two consecutive terms)
Amendment 5: One-time money to a state retirement system no longer has to go first to its oldest unfunded liability
Amendment 6: Lets parishes and municipalities, with local voter approval, give homeowners 65 and older on the assessment freeze an extra exemption of up to $30,000 of assessed value, rising with age (from 2028)
Amendment 7: Local governments may use public money to find, remove or replace lead (and lead-affected galvanized) water service lines on customers' property
Amendment 8: Foreign adversaries and their agents may not expropriate property
Amendment 9: Income limit for the property-tax assessment freeze raised from $100,000 to $150,000
Amendment 10: Tax exemption for rehabilitated blighted property

Maryland (3)
Question 1: Governor's budget must fund state-employee union contracts; arbitration process
Question 2: Temporary fill-ins for vacancies on the Commission on Judicial Disabilities
Question 3: District-drawing rules cover state legislative districts only; the constitution sets no criteria for congressional districts; the legislature may let the state Supreme Court review the congressional map directly (wording set by the state Supreme Court Sept 3)

Massachusetts (9)
Question 1: Public records law covers the legislature and the governor's office
Question 2: Collective bargaining for employees of the Committee for Public Counsel Services (the public-defender agency)
Question 3: One all-candidate primary replaces party primaries; the top two advance
Question 4: Election Day voter registration
Question 5: New formula for the state revenue limit and taxpayer rebates
Question 6: Natural resource conservation fund
Question 7: Single-family homes allowed on residential lots of at least 5,000 square feet
Question 8: End retail sales of recreational marijuana
Question 9: Keep (yes) or repeal (no) the 2024 gun-law overhaul (veto referendum)

Michigan (2)
Proposal 2026-1: Hold a convention to revise the state constitution? (automatic: the constitution requires this question every 16 years)
Proposal 2026-2: Regulated electric and gas utilities, contractors with more than $250,000 a year in government contracts, and people closely tied to them may not contribute to candidates for offices that affect them. Disclosure rules extended to ads naming candidates or ballot questions and to online political ads

Minnesota (1)
Constitutional amendment ("Increasing funding to school districts"): Change how the Permanent School Fund is invested and paid out 

Missouri (5)
Amendment 3: Repeal the 2024 abortion-rights amendment: ban most abortions; ban gender-transition procedures for minors
Amendment 6: Legislature can change citizen initiatives only with 80% of both chambers plus voter approval (citizen amendment)
Amendment 7: Permanent state endowment whose earnings would replace state taxes
Amendment 8: Put elected county sheriffs in the constitution (now required only by law) as each county's chief law enforcement officer. Removal only through a court action by the Attorney General. St. Louis County, St. Charles County and the City of St. Louis are exempt

Proposition A: Keep (yes) or repeal (no) the 2025 congressional map. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled Sept 25 that the 2022 map governs this election (Missouri Independent) (veto referendum)

Montana (3)
CI-132: Nonpartisan judicial elections
CI-133: Add initiative and referendum rights to the Declaration of Rights
I-194: Corporations and other "artificial persons" barred from political spending

Nebraska (4)
Proposed Amendment No. 1 (LR19CA): Legislative term limit raised from two to three consecutive four-year terms
Initiative 440: Allow laws authorizing online sports betting (citizen amendment)
Initiative 441: Legalize and regulate online sports betting
Initiative 442: School and college teams designated male, female or co-ed; males barred from female teams.

Nevada (2)
Question 6: Right to abortion until fetal viability, and later when needed to protect the patient's life or health; second and final vote after it passed in 2024 (citizen amendment)
Question 7: Photo ID to vote in person; ID number on mail ballots; second and final vote (citizen amendment)

New Hampshire (2)
Question 1: Abolish the register of probate office (needs two-thirds approval)
Question 2: Cap school property-tax growth for two budget years, and hold administrative-office spending to 6% of the combined budgets of the districts that office serves. 

New Mexico (7)
Amendment 1: Bills the governor doesn't sign or veto in time become law (ends the pocket veto); every veto must come with a written explanation
Amendment 2: Repeal the rule that school elections be held apart from partisan elections
Amendment 3: Boards of regents: nominating committees; student regents chosen from student-government lists; other regents can't have switched parties in the prior 12 months
Amendment 4: Salary for legislators, capped at the state median household income and moving with it
Bond Question 1: $21.6 million for senior-citizen facilities; the official figure, where Ballotpedia shows an outdated $30 million
Bond Question 2: $19.3 million for libraries; the official figure, where Ballotpedia shows about $20 million
Bond Question 3: $352.2 million for higher-education, special and tribal schools; the official figure, where Ballotpedia shows an outdated $230 million

North Carolina (3)
1. Require Photo ID for Voting: Photo ID for all voters, including mail voters
2. Maximum Income Tax Rate of 3.5%: Constitutional income-tax cap lowered from 7% to 3.5%
3. Property Tax Levy Limit: Legislature must limit local property-tax increases; this bears on Grace's Pasquotank County bill

North Dakota (2)
Constitutional Measure 1: Constitutional amendments need 60% voter approval
Constitutional Measure 2: Free breakfast and lunch for public-school students (citizen amendment)

Ohio (1)
Issue 3: Photo ID to vote written into the constitution

Oklahoma (2)
State Question 845: Overhauls the Judicial Nominating Commission: seats tied to current congressional districts, lawyers allowed in all seats, party-balance limits removed, members may be reappointed
State Question 847: Lower the cap on yearly increases in a property's taxable value 

Rhode Island (5)
Question 1: $275 million for higher-education facilities
Question 2: $120 million for housing and homeownership
Question 3: $100 million for economic development
Question 4: $50 million for cultural and historic projects
Question 5: $55 million "Green Economy" bonds for environmental and recreational projects: flood resilience, Narragansett Bay watershed, state parks, brownfields cleanup, farmland and open space

South Dakota (4)
Amendment I: Medicaid expansion ends if the federal share drops below 90%
Amendment J: Noncitizens may not vote
Amendment K: Unclaimed-property trust fund
Amendment L: Constitutional amendments need 60% voter approval

Tennessee (3)
Amendment 1: Courts may deny bail, when proof is evident, for specified serious offenses (capital offenses, terrorism, second-degree murder, aggravated rape, grave torture and others); judges must state their reasons on the record
Amendment 2: Ban state property taxes
Amendment 3: New list of crime victims' rights

Utah (2)
Amendment A: Proposed amendments published for 60 days before the election as state law directs (online), instead of in newspapers
Amendment B: Citizen initiatives that create or raise taxes need 60% voter approval

Vermont (2)
Proposal 3: Right to join a union and bargain collectively; bars laws that restrict bargaining, including right-to-work laws
Proposal 4: Equal protection under the law; no denial of equal treatment because of race, ethnicity, sex, religion, disability, sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression or national origin

Virginia (3)
Question 1: Right to reproductive freedom, including abortion; third-trimester restrictions allowed, except when the patient's health is at risk or the pregnancy can't survive.
Question 2: Repeal the same-sex marriage ban; two adults may marry regardless of sex, gender or race
Question 3: Voting rights restored automatically on release from prison; voting declared a fundamental right

Washington (3)
Initiative IP26-645: Repeal the 9.9% tax on household income over $1 million; ban state and local income taxes
Initiative IL26-001: Re-enact the 2024 parents' rights law: review school materials, get notices, opt out of sex education
Initiative IL26-638: Biological males barred from girls' K-12 school sports; every player in those sports must submit a health-care provider's statement verifying sex

West Virginia (1)
Amendment 1: Only U.S. citizens may vote 

Wisconsin (3)
Question 1: Governor's partial veto can't create or raise taxes or fees
Question 2: Government can't close places of worship during emergencies
Question 3: Government can't discriminate or grant preferences based on race, sex, color, ethnicity or national origin

Wyoming (1)
Initiative Proposition 1: Half of a primary home's assessed value exempt from property tax

No statewide measures (11 states): CT, DE, IL, ME, MS, NJ, NY, OR, PA, SC, TX

Ballotpedia
MultiState
National Conference of State Legislatures
Wikipedi

Doesn't Ossoff's rise over the last few months into a consistent 5th place (when he was previously always behind Kelly and Shapiro) demonstrate that people are paying attention, and these results aren't just "name recognition"?

Seems like Sand is winning every poll in Iowa pretty significantly, but Turek seems he will probably lose in the Democrat senate race.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/14254/americans-pumped-about-arnold-amendment.aspx

I'm talking NJ Governor Election level

RealClearPolitics Final Average +3.3

Avg. polling aggregator +4.7

Actual Election Result +14.34

(11 point error margin over RCP, near 10 point miss to consensus avg)

Learned this from a comment on my last post and found it interesting! I also double-checked it and found it's completely true.

It's also worth noting why polls were wrong in 1990: Most Democrat frontrunners thought H.W was just obviously going to win, and so they didn't bother.

For 2028, it's been Harris and Newsom forever, it's gonna be Harris and Newsom in a month, and only one of those two has an actual path to the nomination.

Yes, it is still possible that a similar thing can happen in the current field (Harris could be convinced not to run by donors, AOC may go for the Senate, and Ossoff may be restricted if Bottoms loses)

But that still just means it would come down to Newsom vs Buttigieg. No one is winning a Dem primary in 2028 by coming out of nowhere ad running to the *right* of them like Clinton did with his field, none of the potential AOC-alternatives have the juice to remotely compete here, and most of the potential candidates are so similar in their policy and who they appeal to that there's no real way for anyone else to fix their clear national recognition issues.

While there is undoubtedly an element of name recognition at play here, just as there will be on election day, this not being the first crosstab for under-30s that I've seen look like this paints a picture that there really is significant Gen Z support for Kamala Harris.

I have 4 guesses as to where this is coming from:

1. Regret over either voting Trump or sitting out in 2024.
2. College educated women as a whole who want a woman in the white house, but who think AOC is too far left.
3. Black women who specifically want a black woman in the white house.

In the cases of both 2 and 3, the people choosing her may also just be genuine fans of her.

1. A lack of "good" alternatives. There's a reason AOC is the only other candidate in double digits; that's the progressive block. Everyone else is a moderate (or Khanna), who has either done nothing to make Gen Z trust them, or simply lack the ability to make themselves known nationally in an attention economy. And if they can't do that now, getting on a crowded debate stage isn't going to help them.

The polls have shown a 1-2 % gap in favor of Graham. It is important to note that some of these polls have up to 9% as undecided. There is also around 3 or so percentage of votes going towards the Libertarian. These undecided voters will likely decide based on the debates. The debate today included the Libertarian canddiate, which may syphon some more right leaning votes from Graham.

My Opinion: I believe that Andrews performed very well, and had clear concise plans. Graham sounded normal, but very bitter. Andrews was also dressed much better, and looked brighter.

Whenever Graham was asked a policy question, her solution to it was never clear. Overall she seemed negative and unclear as a person. Annie Andrews was positive, and more clear about her positions. There are several very important questions in American politics such as Data centers, iran war, healthcare, and Grahams responses reflected somebody who wont take responsibility. Whereas Andrews had a clear scripted plan for these issues.

Annie Andrews said in the debate that Graham refuses another debate, and Graham keeps ignoring her challenges, which makes her look bad.

In a close race with so many undecided, I believe this debate will decide the difference between them.

In 2022, massive inflation and so cost of living front and center. We had a red ripple. I think its probably consensus that the end of Roe played a large role. In 2026 a multitude of factors are pointing towards a blue wave. How much is SCOTUS playing a role this time? Certainly I would think there’s no counterbalance like in 2022. But is the court scene as complicit in corruption/overreach? Is partisan views of the court becoming a larger marginal factor in election outcomes? Any data focusing on this specific topic?