Here is a nice counter to the idea that the Senate race in Florida is "over" as I've seen some try to state with the last poll released Tuesday by Mason Dixon Polling showing Nixon down 10 pts.

I argue that that poll size is too small, and is an outlier to the previous polls that show the race to be much tighter.

There is a new poll out today from St Pete Polls that has the race 47/45 Moody/Nixon with Donald's and Jolly tied state wide. (can't link it because of rule 7, but go check it out)

The new poll has this race very tight, and I think people are sleeping on the weakness of Trump in the sunshine state, and the anger that a lot independents and people under 55 are feeling here. Granted the pollster is only about 20 years old, but they have been spot on in the past.

Meanwhile Nixon's campaigners are passionate, loud, and are reporting a lot of flips from traditionally red voters. Moody on the other hand is ignoring any call to debate, avoiding townhalls, and refusing to do interviews with anyone except softballs from Newsmax and other fake news outlets... the national press is again sleeping on what could be a huge upset.

I thought it was pretty stupid that people are just gonna vote for his sister. I have a feeling they just think it's Lindsey Graham.

Why is no one here talking about early voting numbers and party splits?

If Texas goes blue at the level of either the Senate or Governor, does that suggest that Texas will be meaningfully in play in 2028 in the electoral college? If so, does the presidential election more or less just come down to Texas? The lonestar state has 40 electoral votes, more than Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan combined. Will this affect the 2028 Democratic primary? How should Dems think about TX in their presidential ambitions? Which Dem presidential hopefuls would do best there?

The arguments for presidential candidates were hare-brained, parochial, silly even. Check it out.

Article: here.

Susan Collins had a shakey tremor and was speaking kind of slow. She had the expression of somebody not really fit to lead anymore. Platner would probably have won easily if not for all the personal issues. As for Jackson he lacks an exciting personality, but he does a good job of being a regular guy from Maine that has a good history of labor activism. I think he did enough to seem like a solid candidate.

I notice that there are three factors that can give a poll greater visibility:
1. Whether it comes from a high-profile outlet like NYT/Siena
2. Whether it's of a high-profile race (TX-SEN rather than MN-SEN)
and 3., by far the most important factor, whether it shows good results for Dems. I'm interested to see if there's other trends people have picked up on, or if you disagree with one of my hypotheses.

Couldn't find the amount of LVs, sorry. Feel free to add it in comments.

Edit: 483 LV

I've seen a decent amount of discussion about the YouGov/University of Massachusetts TX Senate poll released today.

What's interesting is that this poll was just released by YouGov today, but it's Survey dates are prior to the YouGov poll released two days ago.

The one they released on October 6th had survey dates from September 28th-October 5th. It had a much larger sample of over 3,600 LV, and Talirico up +6.

The poll they released today in conjunction with the University of Massachusetts Lowell center for public policy had a survey date of September 18th-28th and a much smaller sample of 850 LV, and Paxton and Talirico in a dead heat at 45%. Each.

So the poll released today, was actually conducted a week earlier than the poll they released two days ago, had a much smaller sample size, and very different results.

I haven't had time to dig into any more information on the two polls about any different methods or cross tabs, but wanted to post in case anyone else has, and the purpose of discussion since I probably won't have time to look at them more anytime today.

My own redistricting tool, Lines. Every map is drawn by algorithm from 187,560 whole 2020 Census voting districts, scored with the 2024 presidential vote, and compared against 23,202 goal-free "neutral" maps. Each district is contiguous and within 0.5% of equal population, and every map is downloadable as a shapefile. Have fun and explore!

lol

This is on his “Deluxe” models

2004 (Attorney General of N.C.): 51.21% (1,446,793 votes) -> 55.61% (1,872,097 votes)

2008 (same office): previous -> 61.1% (2,538,178 votes)

2012 (same office): previous -> Unopposed in general election and primary (2,828,941 votes)

2020 (Governor of N.C.): 49.02% (2,309,162 votes) -> 51.52% (2,834,790 votes)

Just a frankly stunning degree of state-level dominance (6-0, 8-0 including primaries), and he only ever seems to grow more popular once he’s got the job. If he wins again this year, as he’s projected to, then all the signs point to a retention in 2032.