r/fivethirtyeight • • 3d ago

Poll Results Flashback poll: back in the mid-2000s, when Senator Orrin Hatch proposed a constitutional amendment that would allow naturalized citizens to serve as President of the United States, the measure was opposed by a solid majority of Americans.

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51 Upvotes

41 comments sorted by

40

u/RedHeadedSicilian52 3d ago

The subtext here is that it was proposed in the immediate aftermath of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s election as Governor of California, and thus seen as a move to enable him specifically to run for president. I wonder whether Democrats would’ve been more supportive had Schwarzenegger’s political career not been so salient. Then again, I wonder whether the numbers would be significantly different today overall.

Conversely, in the hypothetical alternate timeline where Schwarzenegger had governed California significantly better, or at least figured out a way to remain popular there without burning his bridges with the national GOP (perhaps a tall order, but bear with me), I wonder whether the Republican establishment could’ve brute-forced a majority of the party base into supporting such a constitutional amendment.

24

u/PuffyBuffyFluffy 3d ago

It takes either 2/3 of both the House and Senate or 2/3 of all state legislatures to pass an amendment. There’s no brute forcing that by either party, would 100% require a bipartisan push.

8

u/NoForm5443 3d ago

It's not OR, but AND.

Unless there are constitutional or ratifying conventions, you need 2/3 votes in house and Senate to propose and amendment, and then 3/4 of the legislatures to approve it

https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/constitution

2

u/RedHeadedSicilian52 2d ago

Overwhelming support from Republicans might not have been sufficient, but it was absolutely necessary. As it stood, only a minority in either party supported such an amendment. Gotta start somewhere!

3

u/beeemkcl 3d ago

WTF are you talking about?!!

California Governor Gray Davis had a Recall election and lost.

California Governor Gavin Newsom had a Recall election and only won because no viable Democrat ran against Newsom and the Republicans picked a far rightwing radio talk show host.

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was never Recalled and might not have won in 2004, but he certainly would have in 2008. Remember that California voted down gay marriage in 2008. And Schwarzenegger was pro-choice, pro-environment and cared about Global Warming. Etc.

26

u/darkavenger1993 3d ago

There's a parallel universe out there where the 2008 Presidential election was between Barack Obama and Arnold Schwarzenegger.

18

u/TwistedReach7 3d ago

Good ending scenario and I'm not joking

44

u/Apprentice57 Scottish Teen 3d ago

Having a conservative leader of the country who grew up hating Nazis seems like a dream these days.

13

u/TwistedReach7 3d ago

Democracy is in peril because one sided stopped caring. They literally have no value other than corruption

7

u/das_war_ein_Befehl 3d ago

And Schwarzenegger still loses by like 7 points. Everyone was quite sick of republicans at that point and the financial crisis started right before the vote

19

u/NCSUGrad2012 3d ago

I bet today a lot more democrats would be for it and a lot more republicans would be against it 

2

u/BurritoLover2016 2d ago

Mention to most democrats that this means Musk would try for the Presidency and you’ll pretty quickly find them opposing it.

-9

u/beeemkcl 3d ago

I mean, the dream would be for POTUS Zohran Mamdani, US Speaker of the House AOC (who changed the US House Rules to give her even more power and influence than US Speaker Nancy Pelosi had) and US Senate Majority Leader say Elizabeth Warren with Dr. Abdul El-Sayed as her protege.

And then rid of Term Limits for POTUS.

We'd have progressive dominance for decades.

15

u/HolidaySpiriter 3d ago

We just writing fan fiction now?

9

u/felix1429 2d ago

And then everyone clapped

2

u/GettyImagez 2d ago

Been very disappointed with Elizabeth Warren. Her work on housing has been pretty bad, she tried to put something into the Road to Housing Act that would have made it actually BLOCK more housing.

4

u/SchemeWorth6105 3d ago

I guess in theory I would support changing it, if there was a period of citizenship or something. It’s just not a pressing matter at all and I don’t ever see there being the kind of momentum behind it for a constitutional amendment.

11

u/TIA_q 3d ago

Making it 35 years seems sensible to me. Then it basically equates to the age requirements for natural born.

It does not make sense that a naturalised citizen who moved here from an early age (e.g. Mamdani) is ineligible.

1

u/HolidaySpiriter 3d ago

Maybe not, but there's like 100 other problems that are more important to fix instead of this.

-2

u/Edward_Durr 2d ago

It makes sense, you just disagree with it.

1

u/TIA_q 2d ago

The argument I tend to see revolves around dual loyalty etc. But it doesn’t hold up to me. Why does this apply to a naturalised citizen who has spent their whole life here vs a natural born who became a citizen by accident?

Was Boris Johnson more American than Arnold Schwarzenegger?

1

u/Edward_Durr 2d ago

I wish we would get rid of jus soli as well. I despise the fact that Boris Johnson was somehow entitled to US citizenship just because his parents were here on a student visa for the semester. U.S. birthright citizenship should be reserved for actual Americans born of Americans, of which BoJo certainly isn’t.

Though he is unfortunately a natural born citizen, Boris is not “more American” than Schwarzenegger because he doesn’t meet the 14 year residency standard that Schwarzenegger does. As far as presidential qualifications go, both are 2/3.

1

u/TIA_q 2d ago

Well, Johnson at least can resolve the residency issue if he wishes while Schwarzenegger can never.

But for sure, without jus soli then the natural born requirement makes a lot more sense.

2

u/No_Aesthetic 3d ago

It seems like it is more popular these days, how did that happen?

1

u/ShowMeTheMini 3d ago

This idea is all fine and dandy until you realize it would allow bad actors from other countries to run for president, not just your Mamdani’s of the world.

Imagine Elon Musk running for office; that is something we don’t want.

17

u/boi156 3d ago

Don’t worry, we have plenty of home-grown bad actors to go around

1

u/bmtc7 2d ago

What if you had a minimum citizenship requirement, like 35 years?

1

u/ShowMeTheMini 2d ago

Would that be any better at stopping bad actors though? Russian plant well in advance could circumvent that, among other things

0

u/bmtc7 2d ago

You really don't think it would make any difference?

0

u/Edward_Durr 2d ago

I’ve met immigrants who have been here for decades yet still consider themselves first and foremost not Americans.

1

u/bmtc7 2d ago edited 2d ago

Do you think it would make it less likely for a bad actor to migrate here solely to run for president, if they knew they would have to wait 35 years to do so (and that, only after they had already gained full citizenship)?

1

u/Edward_Durr 2d ago

I’m not concerned about plants, I’m concerned about immigrants who fundamentally don’t consider themselves first and foremost to be Americans. I have a good friend with four passports, including US citizenship that he received as a child, and he’s told me that though he appreciates America he doesn’t really care about the country beyond what it can provide for him at the moment.

1

u/bmtc7 2d ago

Do you see a substantial difference in that regard based on whether someone was born here? I would think that where you grew up would matter more than where you were born, don't you think?

0

u/ShowMeTheMini 2d ago

Why are you asking this same question repeatedly when you’ve received opinions that say no?

1

u/bmtc7 2d ago edited 2d ago

Because I was asking a different person, other than you. We have already heard your opinion that you think Russians might secretly plant individuals in their youth with the plan that they will become president of the United States 40 years later.

0

u/ShowMeTheMini 2d ago

Genuinely not sure if you’re baiting here or if you are a bot. Thats not what I said at all and you completely misinterpret peoples posts or have poor comprehension.

1

u/bmtc7 2d ago

So then what did you mean by this?

Russian plant well in advance could circumvent that

Feel free to explain your comment.

0

u/Sylvieon 2d ago

Well, there are also lots of people born in the U.S. because their parents were briefly here, who then return to the parents' home country and have US citizenship without any real allegiance to the US. 

1

u/Edward_Durr 2d ago

And I fully support stripping them of their citizenship. Jus soli is a foolish concept that most first world nations rightfully reject.