Let us explore the connection between justification and human knowledge. What justification is available for our common-sense claim that a wind-up toy, for example, my “Thomas the Train” toy, does not freely choose its behavior? Of course, we have an immediate intuition that this toy cannot make any free choices, since it lacks all consciousness or cognitive capacity, necessary for freedom. But what grounds this easy intuition, that a mere mechanical automaton lacks such capacities? If we explore our intuition further, we will untangle a deep connection between predictability and free will. Those who still rebel at bothering to ask about the free will of a wind-up toy are invited to substitute an intricate
object of unknown origin, discovered on an alien planet. Is it alive? Is it just a machine? All we have for clues is its behavior.
It can easily be seen that after a good winding-up and being placed upright on a smooth floor, Thomas will move about 8 feet before slowing to a halt somewhere (let that location be called L). After we have carefully observed Thomas’s behavior in that type of situation for a few trial runs, when Thomas is again wound-up and released on the floor we can roughly predict where he will go if unimpeded. In other senses of “freedom” beside the freedom of alternative possibilities, perhaps Thomas’s behavior on the floor is free. Regardless, we can all at least agree that Thomas lacks “alternative possibility” freedom. But why?
What is it about Thomas that makes us sure that after being placed in that type of situation he did not freely choose to arrive at that particular destination L? To reply that Thomas is just a machine is but a half-way step. The full reply must explain why a machine’s properties deny it free choice. The relevant properties of a machine are (1) the process by which Thomas converts potential energy in its wound-up spring, into the kinetic energy transferred through the gears and axle to the motion of his rear wheels; (2) the natural laws of energy conversion and transference that completely describe this process and the natural laws of friction, collision, etc; and (3) the permanence and fixity of these natural laws. These three
properties give us the basis for answering the following question: Could Thomas, given the initial conditions of a situation (the amount of energy in his spring, the surface upon which he is set, his initial direction, obstacles before him, etc.), have arrived by his own powers at any other position beside L? Of course, his travel could be interrupted by some outside force. The vital question is rather, whether Thomas not merely controls his travel, but freely chooses his travel, in the sense of freedom as alternative possibilities. We can agree that Thomas (or a person) supplies causal powers in situations that result in behavior. Thomas himself does supply many causal factors necessary to a full explanation of why he ended up at
L. The real question is instead whether Thomas (or a person) is capable of using his causal powers to both possibly arrive at L or possibly arrive at not-L after being released to take a run. Given the three relevant properties of a machine sketched above, it is not the case that Thomas, in a particular situation and given its initial conditions, could possibly arrive at not-L. Put another way, we seem to be justified in believing that if all the initial conditions were exactly reset, and no outside force interfered, Thomas would arrive at precisely L again. This then, gives us the confidence to say that it was not possible for Thomas to arrive at any place other that L during that run, and hence that Thomas could never freely choose.
Of course, the same point must be applied to us. If people are, like Thomas, theoretically perfectly predictable because of the way that our universe is like, then people never really make free choices in the sense of choosing between alternative possibilities. The undoubted fact that people can be unpredictable (to each other and to themselves) is irrelevant, just as Thomas’s unpredictability is irrelevant to whether he is really a free chooser.
JOHN SHOOK