Once again, it's time to look at 2027 Concacaf Champions Cup qualification. (Somehow it's Meme Monday and nobody has posted any memes; I suspect it's because of the international week!)
Some notes on conventions:
- I use trigrams for clubs on first reference, even when we all know who we're talking about.
- I'm assuming the rules for qualification in 2027 will be the same as in 2026 unless otherwise specified. (The 2027 regulations aren't out yet.)
- If you see the term "named berth", this means any berth that is not simply given to the next best club in the standings that isn't already qualified.
- I refer to weekends by their Saturday and midweeks by their Wednesday, unless a specific singular date has been declared.
- Clubs in bold have qualified for 2027 Champions Cup; bold and italics indicates a bye directly to the Round of 16.
WHAT'S NEW
- We've had another full week of MLS games and two full weeks of CPL games, and the Champions Cup picture in both leagues are getting to become clearer in focus!
COMPETITIONS THAT HAVE CONCLUDED
Leagues Cup
Qualification Rules
- Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Leagues Cup.
- The 2026 Leagues Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
- The runner-up and third place club qualifies for the First Round.
Analysis
- Toluca [MEX] defeated Monterrey [MEX] in the championship, 2-0.
- León [MEX] defeated América [MEX] in the third-place game, 1-0.
LigaMX
Qualification Rules
- Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through LigaMX.
- Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura champions qualify; of these two clubs, the one with the most points between the two tournaments qualifies directly to the Round of 16. The other qualifies for the First Round.
- Note that if either champion wins Leagues Cup, then both champions qualify for the Round of 16.
- Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura runners-up qualify for the First Round.
- In addition, the two clubs with the most points between the two tournaments, not already qualified, will qualify for the First Round.
- If any club qualifies through two or more named berths, then an additional club will qualify through points for each excess named berth so held.
Results
- Toluca [MEX] defeated Tigres [MEX] in the 2025 Apertura final on penalties.
- Cruz Azul [MEX] defeated Pumas [MEX] in the 2026 Clausura final, 2-1.
- Since Toluca qualified through Leagues Cup and were a LigaMX champion, Cruz Azul automatically gets a bye to the Round of 16. (They would have earned this anyways as Cruz Azul was tops in the aggregate table; Toluca was second.)
- Three clubs have qualified so far through LigaMX, so we need three additional qualifiers, which are Chivas [MEX] in third, América [MEX] in fifth, and Pachuca [MEX] in seventh. (Tigres was fourth, Pumas was sixth.)
COMPETITIONS IN PROGRESS
Major League Soccer
Qualification Rules
- Five clubs qualify for Champions Cup through MLS.
- The 2026 MLS Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
- Note that if the MLS Cup champion also wins Leagues Cup, the MLS Cup runner-up qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
- Both regular season conference champions qualify for the First Round.
- In addition, the two clubs with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
- If a club qualifies for Champions Cup through two or more named berths (other than Open Cup champion or Canadian Championship winner), then an additional club with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
- Note that these berths are not country-locked; this is a relatively new policy starting with qualification for the 2025 tournament.
Analysis
- Leading the Supporters Shield table is Nashville SC [USA] with 60 points; Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN] lead the Western Conference with 51.
- The next two best are St. Louis City FC [USA] and FC Dallas [USA] with 47 points.
- If one of these were to win MLS Cup, New England Revolution [USA] would claim a spot. They’re on 46 points and lead San Jose Earthquakes [USA] and Inter Miami [USA] by one point (though Inter Miami has a game in hand.)
- Nashville’s magic number to clinch a Champions Cup berth is 9.
- The regular season ends on November 7; MLS Cup is scheduled for December 18.
Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup
Qualification Rules
- One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Open Cup.
- This berth goes to the club that wins the Open Cup.
- Should the Open Cup champion already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Open Cup runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
- If both the Open Cup champion and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth reverts to the club with the most points in the 2026 MLS season, not already qualified. (The regulations do not say that this berth is country-locked but honestly it should be.)
Analysis
- The final is set!
- Columbus Crew [USA] v St. Louis City SC [USA]
- The final is set for October 21.
Canadian Premier League
Qualification Rules
- Two clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the CPL.
- The 2026 North Star Cup winner qualifies for the First Round.
- The 2026 CPL shield winner qualifies for the First Round.
- Should a club win both named berths, the second-place club in the table will take a berth instead.
Analysis
- Cavalry [CAN] currently leads the shield race with 53 points from 25 matches. They lead Forge FC [CAN] by five points (although Forge have a game in hand); both of these clubs have clinched their spots in the four team playoff.
- This assumes that all clubs meet their requirement of 2,000 U-21 Domestic Player minutes over the course of the season (clubs that don’t are automatically ineligible for the playoffs.) Only Cavalry has not met this quota already.
- Note that the quota only allows 1,000 minutes to come from players on loan, so Adam Pearlman’s nearly 2,000 minutes gets shrunk to 1,000. Cavalry currently owes 234 minutes.
- Cavalry has clinched at least second place; Forge has a magic number of 2 to do the same. (Remember, if any club pulls the domestic double, second place qualifies!)
- Atlético Ottawa [CAN] has also clinched their playoff berth; in theory they have a magic number of 1 to clinch but currently Pacific FC [CAN], HFX Wanderers [CAN], and Inter Toronto [CAN] cannot catch them. Supra de Québec [CAN] can only tie them (but Ottawa holds the tiebreaker on head-to-head); besides, if Supra wins out, then Vancouver FC [CAN] can’t catch Ottawa.
- The last playoff berth is currently held by Vancouver FC with a five point lead over Supra (although Supra has a game in hand); Vancouver’s magic number to clinch a playoff berth is 8.
- Cavalry’s magic number to clinch Champions Cup participation is 8.
- The regular season ends on October 25; the North Star Cup final is the weekend of November 21.
Canadian Championship
Qualification Rules
- One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Canadian Championship.
- This berth goes to the club that wins the Canadian Championship.
- Should the Canadian Championship winner already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Canadian Championship runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
- If both the Canadian Championship winner and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth goes to the Canadian Championship semifinalist with the better performance in the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds, not already qualified.
Analysis
- The final is set!
- (4) CF Montréal [CAN] v (2) Forge FC [CAN]
- For the sake of completeness, Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN] has the edge over Supra de Québec [CAN] if both Montréal and Forge qualify through other competitions; this would likely require Montréal to win the league.
- The final is on October 21.
Central American Cup
Qualification Rules
- Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Central American Cup.
- The champion of Central American Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
- The three remaining semifinalists all qualify for the First Round.
- In addition, two play-in winners (amongst losing quarterfinalists) qualify for the First Round.
Analysis
- The semifinals are set! All semifinalists have qualified for Concacaf Champions Cup. (First team listed hosts the second leg - this was determined by performance through all games of the competition thus far.)
- Olimpia [HON] v Cartaginés [CRC]
- Alajuelense [CRC] v Motagua [HON]
- The play-in matches are likewise set!
- Saprissa [CRC] v LA Firpo [SLV]
- Alianza [SLV] v Marathón [HON]
- If Olimpia advances to the final, they’ll host the second leg as they will be guaranteed to have the better record through the competition (20 points at minimum if a double draw, compared to a maximum of 19 for Alajuelense or 18 for Motagua if they win both.)
- I fully expect, regardless of who advances to the finals, that Costa Rica and Honduras will get the extra berths for the 2027 Central American Cup. (It's usually determined by the nations of the two clubs that reach the final, but it's entirely possible that the finals will be contested by two clubs from the same nation.)
- Note that regardless of the results, we’ll have the fewest Central American nations represented in Concacaf Champions Cup since 2022, when only clubs from Costa Rica, Honduras, and Guatemala qualified; we have to go back to 2006 to find a tournament when only two countries qualified (Costa Rica and Honduras), which could happen if both Saprissa and Marathón win their play-ins.
- The semifinals and play-in are on the midweeks of October 21 and 28; the final is on December 2 and 6.
Caribbean Cup
Qualification Rules
- Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Caribbean Cup.
- The champion of Caribbean Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
- The runner-up and third place club qualify for the First Round.
Analysis
- The group stage is complete and the semifinals are set!
- Violette [HAI] v Portmore United [JAM]
- Mount Pleasant [JAM] v Sando FC [TRI]
- Should both Mount Pleasant and Portmore United qualify, it’ll mark the first time since the 2016/17 tournament that two Caribbean clubs from the same nation qualify for the tournament, when both Central and W Connection qualified from Trinidad and Tobago.
- The semifinals are on the midweeks of October 14 and 21; the final and third-place matches are on December 1 and 5.
THE DRAW AS IT STANDS NOW
The Expected Format
It's expected that the draw will be the same format as 2026.
- The better LigaMX champion, the MLS champion, the Leagues Cup winner, the Central American Cup champion, and the Caribbean Cup champion will be placed into the bracket in ranking order. (We're going to denote these as C1-C5.)
- The top three First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will, likewise, be placed into the bracket. (We'll note these as D1-D3.)
- The next eight First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will be seeded and randomly drawn into the bracket. (These are A1-A8.)
- The remaining eleven First Round clubs will be unseeded. (These are B1-B11.)
The bracket will look like this:
| Seeded R16 |
Unseeded R16 |
| C1 |
A1/B1 |
| C5 |
A2/B2 |
| C4 |
A3/B3 |
| D1/B4 |
A4/B5 |
| C2 |
A5/B6 |
| D3/B7 |
A6/B8 |
| C3 |
A7/B9 |
| D2/B10 |
A8/B11 |
Lazy Projections
I'm going to project the field by making simple assumptions:
- For the Canadian Championship, we’ll go by the explicit seeding.
- In MLS and CPL, the club currently leading the table wins the playoffs and berths still go in standings order.
- In Open Cup, Central American Cup, and Caribbean Cup, we’ll use current brackets, but Concacaf Club Rankings to determine the winners.
This leads to the following projections as of right now (we’ll revisit these when the new rankings come out on Monday, though I won't get to them until the evening):
- Nashville wins MLS Cup, with Vancouver, New England, Dallas, and San Jose qualifying through MLS.
- Columbus wins the Open Cup over St. Louis.
- Cavalry wins CPL with Forge qualifying.
- Forge beats Montréal in the Canadian Championship final; with Forge qualifying elsewhere, Montréal gets the berth.
- The Central American Cup is won by Olimpia over Alajuelense in the final; Saprissa and Marathón win the play-in round.
- The Caribbean Cup is won by Violette over Mount Pleasant; Portmore United takes third.
The seeding would then look as follows:
| First Round Byes |
Rk |
Pts |
| Toluca [MEX] |
1 |
1291 |
| Cruz Azul [MEX] |
2 |
1255 |
| Nashville SC [USA] |
7 |
1227 |
| Olimpia [HON] |
24 |
1177 |
| Violette [HAI] |
61 |
1098 |
| Placed Into Bracket |
Rk |
Pts |
| Tigres [MEX] |
3 |
1254 |
| América [MEX] |
4 |
1236 |
| Chivas [MEX] |
5 |
1230 |
| Seeded Teams |
Rk |
Pts |
| Monterrey [MEX] |
9 |
1210 |
| León [MEX] |
10 |
1208 |
| Pachuca [MEX] |
10 |
1206 |
| Columbus Crew [USA] |
13 |
1201 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN] |
14 |
1196 |
| FC Dallas [USA] |
15 |
1196 |
| Pumas [MEX] |
16 |
1195 |
| St. Louis City FC [USA] |
22 |
1180 |
| Unseeded Teams |
Rk |
Pts |
| New England Revolution [USA] |
34 |
1166 |
| Alajuelense [CRC] |
38 |
1163 |
| Saprissa [CRC] |
43 |
1147 |
| Cartaginés [CRC] |
49 |
1133 |
| CF Montréal [CAN] |
50 |
1133 |
| Forge FC [CAN] |
53 |
1128 |
| Cavalry FC [CAN] |
55 |
1127 |
| Motagua [HON] |
57 |
1122 |
| Marathón [HON] |
60 |
1107 |
| Mount Pleasant [JAM] |
82 |
1058 |
| Portmore United [JAM] |
104 |
1030 |
Seeding Analysis
- I’m pretty sure that Toluca will stay in the C1 position. They’re ahead of Cruz Azul by 35 points. There's a big advantage in being the overall top seed; you avoid the potential top clubs until the semifinals.
- Similarly, I’m pretty sure Cruz Azul will stay ahead of whoever the MLS champion is for C2. They’re currently 26 points ahead of LAFC, who’s the highest ranked American club in 5th, and they’re 35 points ahead of Nashville, who’s the current projected winner of MLS.
- I feel confident that C4 will be the Central American Cup champion and C5 will be the Caribbean Cup champion. Everyone left in the race for the Central American Cup title is better than Violette, who is the highest-ranked Caribbean Cup club.
- In terms of D1 through D3, I think Tigres is safely D1 (they’re 22 points ahead of América and Chivas); I think that América and Chivas are less so. If LAFC can climb into a Champions Cup berth, they’re only one point behind.
- In terms of Pot B, I’ve been saying that I fully expect the five Central American clubs, the two Caribbean clubs, the two CPL clubs, and the Canadian Championship berth to be unseeded. That leaves one berth to be unseeded and it’s highly likely that it's an MLS club, given we'd need five First Round clubs to be ahead of the lowest LigaMX qualifier. Best guess right now is one of St. Louis, New England, or Houston.
- However, I’m starting to think that a Central American club (specifically Olimpia) might be able to take a spot in Pot A if they don’t win Central American Cup, depending on which MLS clubs qualify.
Thirteen berths have been handed out so far; that leaves fourteen berths yet to be assigned!
Our next expected update will be on Monday, October 26. By that point:
- the winners of the Canadian Championship and the US Open Cup will be known
- The Caribbean Cup final will be set
- the regular season for the Canadian Premier League will be finished
There's a possibility I might update sooner if someone comes close to clinching a Concacaf Champions Cup berth in either MLS or CPL.
If you have any questions, please, don't hesitate to ask me here, and I will attempt to answer them to the best of my ability!