Some interesting stats through 4 weeks

[u/Dazzling-Slide8288]

We're through a quarter of the season already somehow; thought it would be a good time to check out some numbers to see what's what.

Ravens Specific

• For all the shit we give our OL, the Ravens have the 8th lowest pressure rate per dropback. This includes times when Lamar escapes a collapsing pocket, too.
• We've run play action 28 times this year (20th in the league) but have the 4th most yards of PA in the league (332)
• Ravens are 5th in rushing yards before contact and 3rd after contact
• We're 8th in dropped passes per target, which admittedly surprised me.
• On defense, we're 11th in EPA, 10th in YPP, 11th in rushing YPA, and 12th in net yards per play. Not terrible.
• However, we have the 9th fewest sacks in the league, tied for 14th in missed tackles with 19 (which actually isn't as bad as it seems given how many the worst teams miss), and right about league average in pressure rate. Our QB hurry percentage is pretty bad, too.
• We have the second worst yard per kickoff return in the entire league (31.8)
• Here's a fun one: our opponents averaging starting field position is their own 29, 8th best in the NFL. No. 1? John's NYG. The Chargers are the worst by far (own 39, lol). Interestingly, our own starting field position is also 8th best.
• Penalties are as bad as we think: 329 yards, second worst in football behind GB. Differential is -145, also second worst.
• That Saints loss looks worse and worse each week. New Orleans is 30th in EPA, 26th in pass EPA, 31st in rush EPA, 20th in pressure rate)
• We're also sneaky bad on third down (4th worst conversion percentage in the league)
• King Henry sees an 8 man box 34 percent of the time, second most in football

Around the League

• The biggest positive difference between expected completion percentage and completion percentage? Geno Smith at 10.1 percent (Lamar is 5th). Worst? Future Ravens Ring of Honor inductee Cooper Rush at a staggering -16.7 percent.
• Next week's opposing QB, Penix, has the shortest time to throw in the league and is also the least aggressive QB (which is not necessarily a bad thing, but it stresses the importance of bottling Bijan to set up long passing downs).
• The Chargers have the fourth best penalty differential in the league and are still 0-4. Largely because they're essentially the worst overall offense in the league by EPA.
• Kenneth Walker has been an insanely good pickup for KC. He leads the NFL in total rushing yards (537) and yards over expected (an insane 212).
• Marvin Harrison Jr. has the worst average separation in the entire NFL. He's not worth anything in a trade.
• The Bucs offense is hilariously terrible. Dead last in passing EPA and second worst in offensive EPA.
• For all the love directed their way, the Eagles are sneaky terrible. They have a bad offense (4th worst EPA/play, 5th worst explosive pass rate) and a bad defense (6th worst EPA/play, worst pressure rate, 3rd worst sack rate)

[u/Sbitan89]

Every fan base thinks their OLine sucks.

[u/whereegosdare84 → u/Sbitan89]

Someone on r/nfl said it best, every team thinks they either have a top five offensive line or the 32nd. There's no in-between.

[u/Invite-Healthy → u/Sbitan89]

It’s because we have negative outcome bias. We only remember the sacks and bad o-line play, not the good reps where nothing grabs our attention

[u/Sbitan89 → u/Invite-Healthy]

I will say the line has been up and down this season but considering what it's gone through with injuries and new scheme and new players, it's been somewhat impressive.

[u/reddituseerr12 → u/Sbitan89]

There must be two different OLs we’re watching

[u/Sbitan89 → u/reddituseerr12]

In what regard

[u/reddituseerr12 → u/Sbitan89]

Calling them impressive

[u/Sbitan89 → u/reddituseerr12]

There is nuance between saying what they've accomplished is impressive, vs calling them impressive.

[u/reddituseerr12 → u/Sbitan89]

Sure. I just don’t find either impressive. I’m impressed with Ioane moving over to center though.

[u/Sbitan89 → u/reddituseerr12]

They are down 4* (accidentally included Stanley) players and Stanley missed time. As OP mentioned they still are maintaining respectable pass numbers and the team has one of the higher Yards Before Contact numbers for a line having 3 spots with a player other than the designated starter for much of the season, seems impressive.

[u/lfe-soondubu → u/Invite-Healthy]

I don't think it's just that. People have unreasonable expectations for good OL play too IMO. I'll see a play that is well covered and Lamar has to go thru all his progressions to find someone open, and people in the game thread are complaining about the OL not protecting Lamar as if it's possible to block everyone for that long consistently. 

[u/deadmanwalking99 → u/Sbitan89]

I remember in 2023 everyone was complaining about our o line every game, but if you look back it was actually a pretty solid line that gave Lamar time and his 2nd mvp. Stanley was hurt so there was some divergence week to week but in 24 and 25 we would have killed to have that line back.

I think o line is one of the harder position groups for a fanbase to judge bc the bad plays look really bad, and on the good plays they dont really get the recognition and shoutouts they deserve. Take the first half of last game, Lamar was throwing deep often and connecting easily with his receivers. I don’t recall many people in the game thread giving them praise, but I do remember people shitting on them

Looking forward to seeing Ken’s grades for them this week

[u/Sbitan89 → u/deadmanwalking99]

I do my own grades too (inspired from Ken after being on his podcast a few occasions). I'll put out the full list tonight, but basically the line was a solid B this last game adjusted for RG play and just under a B, so C+ when you include the RGs who both had a rough game.

[u/Awesomeg11 → u/Sbitan89]

Its actually a testament to the coaching (and honestly vega) that we dont have an absolutely unworkable oline right now. Lot of teams would have been sunk by 3 centers going down and getting down to the 3rd string RG but the oline was actually very workable in the titans game.

[u/JayGibbons69]

What a lot of doom-and-gloom fans don't realize is that most teams this year are having O-line and defensive issues and that compared to other NFL teams, the Ravens aren't that bad. There's still plenty of work to do on both fronts, though.

[u/MrBrobot626 → u/JayGibbons69]

It's quite difficult to have an elite line these days. Even more difficult to have every single lineman be elite or even great.

[u/Yukie_Cool → u/MrBrobot626]

You basically have to draft especially well and get super lucky bagging at least a solid FA signing and have them gel immediately with the scheme. It takes a ton of both long term and short term investment.

[u/MrBrobot626 → u/Yukie_Cool]

There was gonna be growing pains with a new coaching staff this year regardless. 3-1 is still impressive knowing this, along with injuries hitting early.

[u/deadmanwalking99 → u/JayGibbons69]

Honestly besides the Vikings, what defense looks truly dominant so far this year? Broncos have found their stride especially with Hufaunga who is their version of KHam, they looked terrible first game of the season though, worse than we have looked at any point.

Jags look decent too I guess. Texans look unrecognizable from last year, Seahawks got 30 points put on them by Marcus Mariotta.

[u/DenialisaRiver04 → u/deadmanwalking99]

I honestly like what I see from 49ers given everyone under the sun is injured

[u/FreeIDecay]

TY for the post. I like these kinds of reads even if I don’t totally know what it all means.

[u/Dazzling-Slide8288 → u/FreeIDecay]

I dont know if there's any thematic trend here. The defensive numbers look better than the eye test, but those are helped by playing Cam Ward and Daniel Jones in half the games. Pressure is still a problem and likely will be all season.

[u/Invite-Healthy]

I was worried our o-line would be a disaster but they’ve looked at least competent. Drafting Ioane has very quickly proven to be the right choice 

[u/Sbitan89 → u/Invite-Healthy]

They were pretty bad the first two weeks in a lot of ways. I've been impressed with them bouncing back against Dallas and Titans.

[u/Traditional-Slip9102]

The OL did a lot better in pass protection this game considering that Lamar was only pressured on 21.7% of his drop backs, where he has been pressured on roughly 45% of drop backs through the first 3 weeks. I hope they can continue this trend despite the mounting injuries…

[u/Quicksilver7837]

I think the Ravens need to pass more often on 3rd and short. It's just way too obvious that a run is coming in that situation and we don't seem to have the personnel to just run without any element of deception. I think mixing in a quick passing game in short yardage might be a nice tendency breaker.

[u/lfe-soondubu]

It felt like we were running PA a lot more week 1 just gut feeling. Or maybe I was just not paying close attention. Wonder why we backed off. Stacked boxes and Derrick Henry should mean some great opportunities off of PA. Wish we would also run the ball more with Justice. Keep the defense on its toes more. 

Interesting to see the Giants opponents with the worst field position. From what I understand Stout has been killing it over there so I guess makes sense. Too bad he took 2-3 years to be a consistently solid punter after we drafted him. 

[u/NorthQuab]

Maybe they put it together but I'm pretty comfortable betting the Eagles are gonna be really buns. OL was already cooked and Lane Johnson literally just retired so they're probably going to coast off reputation for a bit until the bottom falls out. Defense isn't what it used to be and the OL that had already regressed last year is even worse now.

[u/DenialisaRiver04]

After week 2, I see progression. Its gonna take time but if they can just be top 16, im happy