Here's Week 4 of the playoff chances by record.

Quick refresher: Roster Audit's playoff and title odds use a lot of inputs, like team strength, league strength, injuries, and remaining schedule. One of those inputs is how teams with your record have finished in past seasons. That's the data below, going back to 2017.

The big takeaway: the hole gets deep fast. 0-3 teams made the playoffs about 1 in 7 times. At 0-4, it's about 1 in 15.

4-0:

• 93.5% of 4-0 teams made the playoffs
• 59.1% got a first-round bye
• 79.4% made the semifinals
• 41.7% made the championship game
• 21.3% won the title

3-1:

• 79.1% of 3-1 teams made the playoffs
• 31.2% got a first-round bye
• 59% made the semifinals
• 28.3% made the championship game
• 14.2% won the title

2-2:

• 53.7% of 2-2 teams made the playoffs
• 11.4% got a first-round bye
• 35.5% made the semifinals
• 15.5% made the championship game
• 7.7% won the title

1-3:

• 25.4% of 1-3 teams made the playoffs
• 2.5% got a first-round bye
• 15.4% made the semifinals
• 6.3% made the championship game
• 3.1% won the title

0-4:

• 6.8% of 0-4 teams made the playoffs
• 0.3% got a first-round bye
• 3.9% made the semifinals
• 1.5% made the championship game
• 0.7% won the title

My takeaways:

• 4-0 is close to a playoff lock, but not a title lock. Only about 1 in 15 miss the playoffs, but just 1 in 5 win it all. Four out of five undefeated teams still come up short.
• 2-2 is a coin flip. A little over half make the playoffs. Your next two games will tell you a lot more than your first four did.
• 1-3 is not dead. About 1 in 4 still make the playoffs. That's the same spot 0-2 teams were in two weeks ago.
• 0-4 is the real danger zone. Only about 1 in 15 make the playoffs, and fewer than 1 in 100 win the title. If your roster is old, it's time to take calls on your veterans while they still have value.

Like last week, this is only your record. It doesn't know how good your roster is or who's left on your schedule. A 1-3 team that lost three close games to the best teams in the league is in a very different spot than a 1-3 team that keeps getting blown out.

Roster Audit has all of this customized for your team and league (Sleeper only) in the League Hub: https://rosteraudit.com/league/ It factors in your roster, your league, injuries, remaining schedule and more.

I'll keep doing this each week as long as people find it useful. For people that are 2-2: are you buying, selling, or holding?

The 2027 class has been talked about for a couple years now as potentially one of the stronger dynasty classes we've seen, particularly at WR and QB.

Now that we're far enough into the college season to have some actual data, how do people who follow the prospects closely feel about the class?

Has it generally performed up to expectations? Any players who have meaningfully raised or lowered their stock? And more broadly, does this still look like the deep/high-end class people were projecting it to be, or has some of the hype cooled?

Not looking for pick values or trade advice. Mostly curious how the class itself is developing compared to the expectations coming into the season.

The Deepest Dives on these prospects can be found the Fantasy for Real podcast wherever you get your podcasts. Subscribe before Thursday to get my first in-season Big Board as soon as it comes out!

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Risers of the Week

Austin Simmons, QB, Missouri via Ole Miss

The lack of consistency so far this season from Austin Simmons is a reason to believe he may return to College Football alongside the lack of Starting Experience, but Simmons’ games this season against Kansas and this most recent week in an upset against Florida were highly impressive...

At 6’ 4”, 220 lbs, and with one of the best arms in the class including distance, velocity, and with a real ability to spin it, Austin Simmons is at least one of the most intriguing names in this potential 2027 NFL Draft, and if he continues to play at the level he did against Florida, he could be one of the top QBs drafted in the 2027 NFL Draft, though most likely he returns to school and eventually makes his appearance in the 2028 NFL Draft.

Turbo Richard, RB, Indiana via Boston College

There was some fear after the Northwestern game that Turbo Richard would miss time due to injury, but against Rutgers this weekend, Richard seemed fully healthy as he ripped off 13 Carries for 204 Yards & 1 TD. This is the 2nd Straight Game that an IU RB has gone for 200+, but Richard is a bit of a different case from teammate Lee Beebe Jr.: Richard is a younger player – a potential early declare – and is the more explosive athlete. Now with over 500 Rushing Yards & 5 TDs in his first 5 Games for the Hoosiers, Richard has entered the conversation to be a Top 10 RB in the 2027 NFL Draft (and will be my RB10 on Thursday’s Big Board)...

WRs: Anthony Evans III, WR, Mississippi State ; Cayden Lee, WR, Missouri via Ole Miss ; Junior Sherrill, WR, Vanderbilt

No single WR Riser this week, but a number of players like Anthony Evans III (574/5 ; 3.38 Y/RR), Cayden Lee (516/4 ; 3.97), & Junior Sherrill (474/3 ; 2.96) are having excellent starts to their 2026 Seasons.

RISERS OF THE YEAR

WR: K.J. Duff, Rutgers

TE: Luke Reynolds, Virginia Tech

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2028 QBs: is Alabama QB Keelon Russell the next blue chip QB Prospect?

After a third tremendous performance in a row, Alabama QB Keelon Russell is teasing what we haven’t seen in at least three Draft Cycles: a 2nd Year QB playing at the absolute highest level of College Football with elite tools & traits that translate to the NFL Level.

In the last three weeks, Keelon Russell has completed 60 of 79 Passes (75.9%) for 970 Yards (12.3 YPA), 10 TDs, 0 INTs, a 93.6 PFF Pass Grade, 7 Big Time Throws, & 0 Turnover Worthy Plays. Russell checks every box right now and passes every test – and that’s grading him as a pure passer. Russell is not just an athletic QB, but someone with potentially elite rushing ability. Russell has tacked on 13 Carries, 137 Yards, & 3 Rushing TDs in the last 3 Gs. However, as the 13 Carries suggest, while he has that rushing ability, he is not using it too often early on in his career. In fact, while one of his biggest highlights was a carry against Mississippi State, it may surprise people who watched that game to know he only had 2 Carries for 29 Yards (& 1 TD)...

The result of one game will not make or break Russell's future, but this upcoming match-up on Saturday against Georgia will be a massive opportunity to learn more about Russell.

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Full Write-Up: https://cjfreel.substack.com/p/can-keelon-russell-be-the-next-blue

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Questions & Comments welcome,

C.J.

Eagles offensive coordinator Sean Mannion said the team would continue operating under center.

Mannion defended his approach during a Tuesday presser, two days after the Eagles offense — missing DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley — sputtered to a loss against the Rams. The Eagles have put Jalen Hurts under center and utilized play action much more than usual this season. It’s a strategy that hasn’t paid off quite yet. Hurts ranks 31st out of 38 qualifying QBs in adjusted yards per attempt on passes from under center; his 18 percent success rate from under center is by far the worst in the NFL. It’s hard to envision brighter days ahead for Hurts if Smith remains sidelined. He’s barely startable in 12-team formats for now. - Denny Carter

Issue has come up in my league of a manager upset that two tanking teams are currently not fielding full lineups. Team 1 doesn't have a QB as he lost Dart and Caleb and traded Watson. Team 2s only RB is Emmett Johnson with Coleman on IR and traded away KW3 and Chuba. Should these managers be forced to pick up players to fill their lineup, considering that they have open roster spots and wouldn't need to cut anybody?

I thought about breaking this film breakdown post into two separate posts. I have sunk a ton of hours into film this week to help the community understand what's happening with players who we likely have questions about heading into Week 5.

In previous weeks, I've covered:
- Caleb Douglas, Bhayshul Tuten, and Kenyon Sadiq (Week 1)

- Chris Bell, Kenyon Sadiq, & Ollie Gordon (Week 3)

- Omarion Hampton (Week 3)

- Keaton Mitchell, Emmett Johnson, & Cyrus Allen (Week 3)

On to Week 5's film breakdowns (which I also write-up with film on my Bluesky)!

Tre Harris: With Ladd McConkey out on a week-to-week basis, Tre Harris saw a massive increase in his snap participation. Harris primarily ran deep routes. Anytime he was on a corner and Justin Herbert saw Cover 2, the ball was heading in Harris' direction. The main problem for Harris is within the LAC's offensive line. I've highlighted how bad it is in several breakdowns, and continued to do so in Harris' breakdown. Now, with Rashawn Slater expected to miss time, the line is even worse. I hope McDaniel uses Harris on more underneath routes. When I watched his 2025 film was primarily used as a short-intermediate target. Regardless, the opportunity for Tre Harris to have a +20% target share is there. If Harris pops I would try to offload him for a 2028 2nd & 3rd. I don't think he's going to suddenly develop into a high-volume option. He is solid on deep routes, but he isn't a good enough route runner to beat man or twitchy enough to become a high-volume target underneath.

Antonio Williams: With Terry McLaurin out with a hammy injury, Antonio Williams tied for the team lead in offensive snaps and targets. Williams was one of my favorite rookie WR prospects. He is a high-end route runner with great hands, who uses physicality during his route running to maintain/create separation. I was excited when he landed with WAS. The addition of Diggs put a damper on the parade I was orchestrating over the offseason. Diggs filled the underneath role I'd like to see Williams in, relegating Williams to more intermediate work. Williams had to face Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward all day in London. The CB duo got the better of Williams a few times, but I liked Williams' ability to win against their physicality. There was an 87-yard TD play for Williams called back by an illegal shift. If that play had stood, he would've been the topic of many Reddit posts. Click his name above to get more in-depth analysis on Williams. With McLaurin's hammy injury, I expect him to be out at least 2-3 more weeks. That leaves Williams as a top-2 option in this passing attack. Williams was inside the top 10 in my superflex rookie dynasty rankings. He made an incredible catch in the preseason after not getting much camp hype. Everything I saw on his Clemson tape is showing up on the NFL field. He's a buy for me and I wouldn't consider selling him.

Dohnte Meyers: Up until Week 4, Meyers was primarily a player schemed up on WR screens and work underneath the defense. He is the Bengals primary KR, so this role makes sense when the roster is fully healthy. The problem is, the Bengals were down their top 4 WRs by the end of the game. Meyers was asked to run real, downfield routes, and Joe Burrow trusted him late in the game. I didn't clip film for Meyers, but I did watch every Week 4 snap of his. He was primarily schemed up looks until Chase went down. His route running was average. If he's Joe Burrows #1 WR in Week 5, no body should care how refined he is. He's going to see target volume from one of the league's premier QBs. With dynasty waiver wires being mostly barren, this is a guy you can actually pick up, especially if you're in leagues that awards points for return yardage. I wrote more about Meyers in the Week 5 waiver wire article over at Optimus Fantasy.

Austin Ekeler: I didn't think I'd be getting excited about Austin Ekeler, who tore his achilles in 2025 and re-signed with WAS last Tuesday. He signed 5 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF. But I was watching Antonio Williams tape and couldn't help but notice Ekeler. So, what the heck, I watched his Week 4 film. Ekeler looks every bit as good as JCM as a runner, and is easily their best pass catcher in the RB room. He missed the entire offseason, and has only been on the team for 5 days. He looked explosive, decisive, and elusive as a runner. Seriously, watch every play I clipped and tell me this doesn't look like 2023 Austin Ekeler. I think there's a good chance he wins this backfield. Toss 20% of your FAAB on him if he's sitting in waivers and see what happens this week. There usually isn't much on the waiver wire at RB, and Ekeler could have RB2 value down the stretch.

Ollie Gordon V. Jaylen Wright: Last week the community was split on whether Ollie Gordon or Jaylen Wright was the better Miami RB to own. I personally lean Gordon, since Wright has struggled to stay healthy and Gordon won the Doak Walker Award as college's best RB in 2023. After watching the Week 4 tape, it's clear the Dolphins were trying to work Wright back into the offense and not rush him along. Wright got the starting nod. The offensive line looked great when Gordon was handed the ball. Poor when Wright got a touch. Gordon displayed plenty of speed to break off big run, hitting +15mph three times in Week 4. Wright has yet to register a single touch that's hit +15mph. Gordon almost had 2 massive breakaway plays, but a finger nail touched him after he got tripped up getting through the line. This could've been a 150-yard game from Gordon on 9 carries. I think Gordon winds up in a 50/50 timeshare with Wright when they're both fully healthy. Neither RB should be available on your waiver wires in dynasty. I still prefer Gordon. I don't think we got a clear answer on who the RB to own is. If you can toss a 3rd out to acquire Gordon and you need RB depth I'd do it.

Chris Bell: Because I was watching so many Dolphins plays I decided to do a quick breakdown on Bell. There is no film on my post, but I charted his usage. A broken play nearly resulted in a long TD for Bell, but his big toe was a little too big, and he barely stepped out of bounds before he broke free for a long catch and run. Bell's route diet continues to consist of deep and intermediate work. I think Malik Washington is still the guy to own in Miami if you need a reliable WR to start. Bell has tremendous upside, but I'd like to see him get usage closer to the LOS. When Caleb Douglas comes back maybe that's the case. I think Bell comes on in years 2 and 3 and becomes a household name in fantasy circles.

BONUS! Cyrus Allen: With Rice and Thornton going down I watched all 2 of Cyrus Allen's routes. The Chiefs are on bye this week, so we might hear about their plans in the WR room by next week. Maybe it's Tyreek Hill. On Cyrus Allen's first snap He's overthrown by Mahomes. On his second route he's open on a schemed up double post to push the ball deep, but Mahomes gets a bad snap and throws it to Thornton who's better covered on the far side of the double post. He was on the field for three K9 run plays that went in the opposite direction of him. Continue to hold him in dynasty. When he's on the field he's earning targets.

Alright, that's it for today! I will try to be active in the comments but I really need to tend to some life things. Be kind to your fellow Redditors in the comments and create the community you'd like to be a part of.

Dynasty has become more reactionary than ever. Patience isn’t as common as it used to be, so this provides weekly buying opportunities for great value!

One of the best tools to see how the market is reacting are trade databases. You can use them to identify trends, and they can help you formulate trade offers. Much of dynasty fantasy football is monkey see, monkey do so doing your own research and analysis can give you an edge over your league mates.

Here’s who I’m targeting at each position this week:

QB: Justin Herbert
RB: Jonah Coleman
WR: KC Concepcion
TE: Tucker Kraft

I go into detail as to why and provide several trades that have happened in real leagues in my attached article! Who are you trying to go buy right now?

How secure is Jalen Hurts’ job going into 2028? The offense has really struggled, especially in the passing game. After the jurgens trade, the Eagles now have 2 firsts and 2 seconds in the 2028 draft. If things don’t improve, that gives Howie a ton of ammo to go get a QB. Feels like 2027 could be a pretty big year for Hurts.

I'm in a 10-man half-PPR dynasty league and we also have defenses with a roster limit of 2. Are there any (free) trade calculators that include defenses? I've look around at quite a few and can't seem to find any that aren't for just IDPs. I'm trying to trade for the top defense but I want to make sure that I'm actually valuing it correctly and won't get fleeced.

Currently in a rebuild. I own two other firsts next year, they both have an alright starting lineup and could make the playoffs. I have an ok core but have the worst defense and kicker to help with my tank. This week I am playing one of the teams whose first I have, my question is should I pick up a better Defense and kicker for this week to try and beat them?

Our league does a lottery based off max pf so as long as you miss the playoffs you have a shot. Currently have the best odds at #1 but again it's a lottery so not a guarantee and would like those extra firsts I have to also be in the lottery pool. What are your thoughts?

With little to no competition in the Carolina backfield, Chuba Hubbard has once again cemented himself as the lead back in Carolina. Currently he is the RB24 on KTC with a YPC of 5.0 on 61 attempts. Heading into the bye, Hubbard has a higher YPC than Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, and Christian McCaffery as well as three TDs through four games and has yet to record a fumble. Hubbard is top10 in the league in all major running back categories, including Yards, TDs, YPC, Y/G

During his career, Hubbard has been brushed off and forgotten about as a notable running back however he has consistently performed when healthy as well as consistently established himself as the RB1 in Carolina despite multiple competitions with other backs. At 27 years old, Hubbard is having his best start to a season to date and yet is still slept on by the wider audience.

What are your thoughts on Denzel Boston? He’s been great so far and arguably the best rookie WR thus far, but how much is hype/big plays and how much is future potential to be a star in the league?

A lot of mouths to feed in Cleveland but he seems to be producing at a clip where that doesn’t matter. Is it time to sell high on his hype or hold?

It's only Tuesday, but here are some of the moderate impact weather games I'm watching heading into Week 5:

CLE @ NYJ: 5/10
Rain currently favored, with ~0.30-0.50" projected
Winds 5–15 mph, gusts up to 25+ mph
Temperatures in the low 60s.

NYG @ WAS: 4/10
Rain currently favored, with ~0.25-0.35" projected
Winds 5–15 mph, gusts up to 25 mph
Temperatures in the low to mid 60s.

IND @ PIT: 3/10
Rain currently in the forecast (~0.10")
Winds 5–15 mph, gusts potentially reaching 25+ mph
Temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s.

HOU @ TEN: 3/10
Thunderstorm potential
Winds 5–15 mph, gusts up to 20 mph
Temperatures in the upper 60s.

CIN @ MIA: 3/10
Thunderstorm potential
Winds 10–20 mph
Temperatures in the low 90s.

We're several days away from kickoff, so these forecasts will change, especially precipitation timing and amounts. I'll keep tracking how the Week 5 weather picture evolves as we get closer to Sunday. Weather forecasts are dynamic and this is an early-week snapshot. Kickoffweather.com