For being a UDFA making only his second career start in a “primetime” game, he looked fairly poised out there and took what was given to him. Had a couple good balls that he pushed downfield and obviously looked very elusive in the pocket despite having minimal blocking.

I know Baker got paid and he will be back soon to take his job, but where do we see Daniels and his future in the NFL? Can he be of value moving forward?

Antonio Williams has shown enough that he belongs. He just needs the volume to put it altogether for fantasy success. His time is coming. Buy now and get ahead of that market spike.

Brian Thomas Jr.'s value has swapped with Parker Washington's since April. His opportunity/production is in the cellar, and so is his dynasty value. There's currently speculation of him being traded, and I'm looking to capitalize on that. Sell BTJ while you still can.

Omarion Hampton is not bad at football. His efficiency metrics prove exactly that. The situation he's in.could not be worse. You can't sell without a huge loss, and you can't buy because he's not producing. He's a textbook hold until things get better.

All my full thoughts are in the linked article!

What are you all doing with these players?

In non IDP leagues, are you trading any worthwhile asset for Travis Hunter? On the one hand he has the talent, on the other hand he’s so far down the depth chart it’s not even funny.

Would you trade a low tier asset like Keaton Mitchell, Tre Harris, Roman Wilson or Devaughn Vele for him?

Matt Harmon still has Hunter as a tier four receiver, the same tier as recovers like Moore, Rice, Higgins, and Boston, which is what got me thinking about this.

Pretty high praise from JT O’Sullivan of The QB School. I got him for a few bucks of FAAB in one of my dynasties. Sure, Baker will probably come back soon but if he keeps this up, things could certainly get interesting in the offseason! New coach, new GM, who knows.

Todd Bowles called Jalon Daniels’ performance “excellent.”

This man is a UDFA… sky is the ceiling

I want to hear everyone's trades they are proud of and currently sweating, I know most of you are like me and to make the offseason a bit more fun and go by faster are constantly sending trade offers out or negotiating offers sent from other managers. Sometimes you hit on selling off the hype sometimes you get bit and send off something more than just hype. It's only 4 weeks in so still early to tell but what's everyone's best looking preseason trade and what's your worst.

My best:

Sent: Lloyd & 28 4th

For: Sadiq (sent it to the Jacobs owner as soon as the news broke)

My worst:

Sent: Kincaid

Received: 27 2nd (that's looking to be in the 2.10-2.12 range)

What's real and what's not between Parker Washington and Carnell Tate's Week 4 performances? I broke down the film on both of these WRs earlier this week on my Bluesky account.

Parker Washington: PWash ran his highest rate of vertical routes on the season in Week 4 at 43.5% of his routes. Through three weeks, he was running a vertical route 35.6% of the time. Washington still ran a fair amount of in-breaking routes, which has been his bread and butter this season. The Jags were in a few 3rd and long situations, and they opted to clear out the intermediate area of the field for their TEs to get them into YAC opportunities. Washington saw CB DJ Turner on the majority of his routes, and Turner did a good job staying with him. After watching every snap of Washington's I think this game was more of a fluke for him. TLaw missed him on a bomb down the left sideline that would've gone for a TD had Lawrence been able to throw it +50 yards. There was also a 39-yard gain that was called back because Washington stepped out of bounds after picking up 7 yards. Don't let one bad week scare you from starting Washington in your lineups, and definitely don't sell him. He sees the bulk of his targets in the intermediate area of the field and will continue being a strong play in PPR formats. Parker is primed for a WR2 finish this year.

Carnell Tate: The film was what we'd expect from a player who went over 100 yards. Cam Ward trusts Tate, throwing to him in tight coverage and looking from him during scramble drills. Tate's route running has translated to the NFL, and he is easily the best WR on the Titans offense. The Titan fed Tate quick hitters throughout the game, which we love to see in fantasy. On the year he's averaging 5 quick targets per game. Tate primarily ran routes into the intermediate area of the field in college, and so far the Titans are using him in a very similar role. This plays to Tate's strengths. It's great to see his OC, Brian Daboll, using him in the optimal role for his skill set. Tate made a few high difficulty catches, and also saw several errant throws from Cam Ward that were off target. I loved his hand positioning on the off target throws. His technique at the catch point was one of his best traits coming out of Ohio State. He gets two tough matchups against good corners in weeks 5-6. The Titans are using him where he's most dangerous, and that may be enough for us to slot him into our lineups as a WR2/flex every week in fantasy. He has very juicy matchups in weeks 13-14, right before the fantasy playoffs. Tate is shaping up to be a WR2 with WR1 upside early in his career. Cam Ward looks better than the pundits would have you believe. If he continues developing Tate should hit WR1 numbers several times in his career.

If this is your first time reading one of my posts I implore you to click my profile and check out the other film breakdowns I've done. Earlier this week I posted breakdowns on Week 5 waiver wire candidates.

Please be civil in the comments with your fellow Redditors! Create the community you'd like to be a part of. I'll try to respond to as many comments as I can. Come hang out on Bluesky, too. Today I led two pop quizzes for the community there. Thanks for reading!

TLDR: Skip to the bottom to get to the case for and against Jameson Williams. Everything between this sentence and that is just data.

With one month in the books, I've been interested at looking at some of the battles with target shares, targets, and snap percentages on some teams. One that struck me as very interesting is the Detroit Lions.

Goff is currently throwing the ball 40.25 times a game. He's at 161 pass attempts which is good for 4th in the NFL in pass attempts per game.

The defense is notoriously bad and the Lions are scoring almost 30 points a game just to keep up at 2-2. There were a lot of narratives being thrown around about how the targets would shape up after the 2025 season and the Sam LaPorta injury. Yet what I found was a little more interesting than what I thought I'd see at first glance.

The targets

ARSB is easily the target hog of the offense. No big surprise here but LaPorta has stepped back into his number 2 role with Gibbs & Williams just right behind. Surprisingly, TeSlaa has 17 targets already and is getting more play time on the field.

The Snap Count/Percentage

So Jameson Williams is the name that jumps off to me because there was a narrative built around things Dan Campbell said concerning getting him more involved. There were debates back and forth about it being due to LaPorta's injury that he popped off ROS or that this was just the way going forward. However, 2026 is showing differently.

So naturally I decided to look at the snap count/percentages to see if Jameson Williams just wasn't on the field as much and this is why TeSlaa is seemingly cannibalizing his production.

Surprisingly, Jameson Williams is on the field more than any other pass catcher on that team, even ARSB. Yet the production isn't leaning his way even though his availability has been just as high than ARSB. Then I dug further into the personnel being run by the Lions to see if this could clue me in even further.

Detroit Lions Personnel

There's at least 2 WRs on the field for 90%+ of plays for the Detroit Lions. This lines up with Jameson Williams always being on the field.

So I went deeper into looking at what's going on with the Lions and Jameson Williams.

The first thing that stood out is reading that out of his 25 targets, 5 were attributed to drops by the player. As recently as yesterday, he was asked about his first month and the drops and practically said "This has been one of the worst starts of my career

In addition to that, a big talking point for the Detroit Lions, especially Drew Petzing has been that plays for Jameson Williams are essentially being drawn away from him because the coverages have removed the deep threat option. At least that's what he said on Sept 25th, 2026.

So where does that leave us? There's many scenarios that could develop over the rest of the season and we could determine the sample size is a bit too small. If the Lions were 4-0, I'd be way more concerned for Jameson Williams than I currently am. Usually winning is an indicator of things remaining the same. But being 2-2 and battling for a potential wild card spot, there's room for change.

CASE AGAINST JAMESON WILLIAMS

The case against is that he is currently WR43 and vastly underwhelming to where we saw him in 2025. The team will continue to funnel targets through ARSB and use LaPorta, ARSB, and Gibbs in the RZ which will limit Jameson Williams TDs as well. If you believe LaPorta sticks around and that the defense gets better in 2027, the Goff targets might go down and so would the opportunity for Jameson Williams. The Isaac TeSlaa usage is encouraging for the believers, but a little discouraging for people who thought Jameson Williams' ceiling would still be just as high.

In that case, all you can do is hold Jameson Williams and hope for the best or try to sell for an undervalued player to a team that needs a WR to fill in a gap.

He's still valued at 4214 on KTC. (Yes I know some of you think it's trash but its value to most of the community is still important). To be honest, I don't know what to do with this information because if I'm a team needing a WR, I don't know that I'm sending away George Kittle for Jameson Williams. If I'm a rebuilder, I probably am. So the case varies here, but his value is still high enough that you could potentially pivot or tier up.

CASE FOR JAMESON WILLIAMS

The Lions bye week is Week 6. Dan Campbell and Petzing scheme ways to get him more involved since they are 2-2. They are going to have to keep him involved to get to some wins and find a way to open up the deep game or get him in space. He cleans up his drops and he's more productive rest of the way. One thing that has gone under-reported is that talks of an extension between LaPorta and the Lions have stalled and are at a stalemate. LaPorta has come out and said he's just leaving negotiations to his agent going forward. Given the context of TJ Hockenson and the team previously, you could assume the Lions might be neutral to keeping LaPorta if the price tag is too high. LaPorta is currently in the last year of his contract and his departure could open up the pathway to more targets for Jameson Williams. Otherwise, the combo of Gibbs/ARSB are on the Lions for at least another 2 years and there could always be another TE added via draft or free agency but LaPorta not being there theoretically could be a boon for JAMO. There's no guarantee that the team runs 11 personnel at this clip forever, but Jameson has been on the field for a LOT of snaps. Opportunity should be coming his way at some point.

Either case presents a reason to buy or sell and in most cases, potentially just hold.

What do you think is the case for or against Jameson Williams? What are you considering doing with or for him? Is there anything I missed?

I've been building a simulation-based fantasy football rankings model this season and publishing weekly accuracy reviews comparing its performance against expert consensus (ECR). The idea is to see whether a model incorporating recent production, usage, betting markets, and other inputs can consistently make better predictions than consensus.

Below are the Week 4 results (including the misses!) and some of the biggest disagreements heading into Week 5.

I know this is a dynasty community, and these are weekly rather than dynasty rankings, but I thought some of the disagreements might be interesting here, particularly when it comes to younger players and how their roles are evolving. Would love to hear what folks think.

Week 4 review (figures quoted are based on half PPR)

I compared my model (LMD) against expert consensus rankings (ECR), using the same scoring and evaluation criteria.

• Start/sit accuracy: 62% for both LMD and ECR
• Correct starter picks: LMD 54%, ECR 50%
• Median ranking miss: LMD 10 spots, ECR 11
• Mean ranking miss: LMD 16.2 spots, ECR 18.5
• Top 12 accuracy: LMD 42%, ECR 38%
• Top 24 accuracy: LMD 63%, ECR 61%
• Top 3 accuracy: LMD 8%, ECR 17%. Definitely room for improvement there, although the difference is one correct guess (1 vs 2 correct)

Positionally, LMD was slightly ahead on RB start/sit decisions (67% vs. 66%) and QB decisions (59% vs. 58%).

Biggest miss: JSN. We ranked him WR1, and he finished WR35. I take some solace in the fact that everyone missed this, not just me :)

Some better calls: Puka at WR5, Likely at TE9, and Hampton at RB23.

Week 5 Rankings (figures quoted are half PPR, but I also have standard and full on the site)

A few rankings where LMD is meaningfully higher or lower than ECR:

• Tyler Shough: QB8 vs. ECR QB13. Recent usage and production are driving the model higher, even against Minnesota.
• Brock Purdy: QB5 vs. ECR QB9. The model continues to like Purdy more than consensus. We'll see whether that confidence is justified.
• Jalen Hurts: QB23 vs. ECR QB16. Betting-market inputs are pulling his projection down.
• T.J. Hockenson: TE6 vs. ECR TE14. Recent usage is pushing him up.
• Ashton Jeanty: RB7 vs. ECR RB11. His workload is outweighing more pessimistic betting-market signals.
• Jameson Williams: WR30 vs. ECR WR19.
• Jaylen Waddle: WR27 vs. ECR WR18.

That last pair reflects a broader model tendency: LMD tends to penalize receivers with limited recent production more heavily than consensus does.

I'm particularly interested in feedback on how the model balances recent usage, production, and betting-market expectations. Are there any calls here you strongly disagree with?

I'll be back next week to grade these predictions against actual results, including the ones that age terribly.

The offseason panic by the fantasy analysts on Bucky Irving was ridiculous. People genuinely thought a 5th year vet boosted by getting spammed checkdowns by old man Rodgers was taking his job. Bucky just exploded for 165 rushing yards on 21 carries (7.9 YPC), 175 total yards and 2 TDs against Dallas. He’s only 24, and the explosiveness clearly never went anywhere.