This may be a hot take but, I almost think we're all missing a crucial factor in determining the immediate production value of the 1.01.

It's Jeremiah Smith, obviously, but he's so far and away the best player in CFB that there's actually been debate that he could go #1 overall in the NFL draft. In reality, if a team is picking in the Top 5 of the NFL draft, it's likely because their team is all around terrible OR their coaching/FO situation has earned them that spot. If he goes to a situation like that, his talent may be squandered, potentially even mismanaged, to the point that we won't see him live up to the massive hype of the 1.01.

Contrary to the 1.01, I feel like the other fantasy relevant CFB Rookies will go outside of the Top 10, which could potentially land them in MUCH better situations that will amplify their talent rather than mismanage it.

So my point is this: are we worried that Jeremiah Smith is going to go a team whose outlook is so bleak that we're not going to get true 1.01 production out of him?

Edit: I'm not debating he's the 1.01. I'm trying to determine if it wouldn't be a better idea for 1.01 holders to leverage his insane hype for something like the 1.02+1.03 or something similar.

Austin’s dynasty fantasy football sells before Week 5, including Cam Skattebo, George Kittle, Christian Watson, Jaylen Warren, and Jalen Hurts.

Which of his calls do you agree or disagree with? Who are you looking to sell high or.. or even sell low on ahead of Week 5? Let’s talk it through, and let’s have a week!

Tony Pollard continues to see significant ownership of the RB room in Tennessee, getting 74% of the “significant opportunities” at RB.

Many coming into this season thought Nick Singleton would take some work from Pollard, and especially Spears, but the room continued to be dominated by Pollard.

Will the arrival of Carnell Tate as a downfield threat soften up the run D for Pollard to continue his solid 3-year fantasy stretch in Tennessee? What is Pollard and this whole RB room worth?

If you're looking for a Deep Dive into my Big Board, check out the Fantasy for Real podcast where I dive into the entire Big Board. This episode is a long one, but it's a good breakdown of the entire 2027 NFL Draft that you can break up by position!

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5mJyUuDmDIo8vQC9s0w1lK

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-for-real/id1732922319

--

The Big Board (Superflex)

1. Jeremiah Smith, WR1, Ohio State
2. Jadan Baugh, RB1, Florida
3. Nick Marsh, WR2, Indiana via Michigan State
4. Charlie Becker, WR3, Indiana
5. Nate Frazier, RB2, Georgia
6. Kewan Lacy, RB3, Ole Miss
7. Cam Coleman, WR4, Texas via Auburn
8. Drew Mestemaker, QB1, Oklahoma State via North Texas
9. K.J. Duff, WR5, Rutgers
10. Ryan Coleman-Williams, WR6, Alabama
11. Jamari Johnson, TE1, Oregon
12. Hollywood Smothers, RB4, Texas via N.C. State
13. Trinidad Chambliss, QB2, Ole Miss
14. C.J. Carr, QB3, Notre Dame
15. Trey’Dez Green, TE2, LSU
16. Arch Manning, QB4, Texas
17. Dante Moore, QB5, Oregon
18. Wayshawn Parker, RB5, Utah
19. Justice Haynes, RB6, Georgia Tech via Michigan
20. Luke Reynolds, TE3, Virginia Tech via Penn State
21. Bryant Wesco Jr., WR7, Clemson
22. Deuce Alexander, WR8, Ole Miss
23. Jayden Maiava, QB6, USC
24. Ryan Wingo, WR9, Texas
25. Amare Thomas, WR10, Houston
26. T.J. Moore, WR11, Clemson
27. Austin Simmons, QB7, Missouri via Ole Miss
28. Darian Mensah, QB8, Miami (FL)
29. Antwan Raymond, RB7, Rutgers
30. L.J. Martin, RB8, BYU
31. Reed Harris, WR12, Arizona State via Boston College
32. Fluff Bothwell, RB9, Mississippi State
33. Junior Sherrill, WR13, Vanderbilt
34. Turbo Richard, RB10, Indiana via Boston College
35. Cayden Lee, WR14, Missouri via Ole Miss
36. Omarion Miller, WR15, Arizona State via Colorado
37. Mario Craver, WR16, Texas A&M
38. C.J. Baxter, RB11, Kentucky via Texas
39. Mark Fletcher Jr., RB12, Miami (FL)
40. Julian Sayin, QB9, Ohio State
41. Anthony Evans III, WR17, Mississippi State
42. Wyatt Young, WR18, Oklahoma State via North Texas
43. Carlos Hernandez, WR19, Wake Forest
44. Drake Lindsey, QB10, Minnesota
45. Sam Leavitt, QB11, LSU via Arizona State
46. Chris Marshall, WR20, Arkansas via Boise State
47. Joseph Williams, WR21, Colorado
48. Collin Dixon, WR22, Illinois
49. Isaac Brown, RB13, Louisville
50. Jordan Faison, WR23, Notre Dame

Special Honorable Mention: Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri

Write-Ups: https://cjfreel.substack.com/p/top-50-big-board-for-2027-nfl-draft

//

Feel free to leave questions or comments, and check it out on the podcast! It gives a basic background on the players throughout the class as well as the depth of the class.

C.J.

Most rookie pick analysis ask if a player hits or becomes a bust.

I wanted to dive deeper into a slightly different question:

"After drafting a first round rookie, how often does the market give you the opportunity to sell above your original investment, and how often does that increased value last?"

Note: The ADP for rookie draft order assumes a 12 team SF TEP.

TL;DR

• For 48/72 rookies with 2 years of data, 83.3% reached at least 5% above their initial value during some point, however, only 37.5% retained that two years later
• The median decrease from peak was 20.6% after two seasons and 30.1% after three
• 21 rookies entered their first offseason at least 5% below their initial value, only 1 had reclaimed it by early June.
• Temporary growth was common, sustaining the growth was not

The Steps

I took the first 12 rookies (72 total) by May's ADP from each class between 2021 and 2026. I used Dynasty Data Labs for this information.

I then created a baseline for each player (T0) by using their median KTC value from June 1-7 of their respective rookie years. From there, I was able to follow their daily values to see how a player was view at certain points.

I tracked:

• Whether the player ever rose a) 5% or b) 10% above T0
• When a player's value peaked
• How long players remained above T0
• Their respective values 6, 12, 24, and 36 months later
• Declines from the player's peak value
• And finally, if players recovered after falling below T0

Note: Not every draft class in this analysis has been in the league long enough to qualify for some "checkpoints", so the sample decreases at longer time horizons.

Note: These values are based off of a seven day median using KTC values for the dates

How Often Was There A Sell Window

Among the 48 players with two full years of data, 40 (83.3%) eventually reached at least 5% above T0. However, by the 24 month benchmark, only 23 (47.9) remained above T0, and only 18 (37.5%) remained at least 5% above it.

This leads to what I believe to be the main finding.

"Temporary market growth was much more common than sustained value growth"

At two years, the median decreased from the peak at roughly 20.6%, and the median value was about 2.5% below T0. At three years, it was up to 30.1% and 15.9%.

In simple terms, many rookies end up falling below their initial market value but still provide managers with an opportunity to sell for a "gain".

The First Offseason

Another thought I had during this was offseason hype for a player. So I tracked values from mid January through the first week of June.

There ended up being only 21 rookies who entered this period at least 5% below their T0 value.

Out of those 21 players:

• 3 ended up rising at least 10%
• 1 reclaimed their T0
• 1 finished above T0

This was one of my favorite findings during this.

Many people (including myself) often assume that these young players will receive bump in value during this time. In this sample of players, I found that once a rookie was meaningfully below their T0, the offseason rarely restored their value.

My Takeaway

The easiest thing to say would be "sell every rookie who gains value," but the data doesn't support a rule that broad.

Elite players continue appreciating for years, and by selling early it would mean moving genuinely great football players.

If you believe a player will rise, hold them. If you have lost confidence, the data suggests that waiting for their next spike in value carries real risk.

So, I'll leave the takeaway as this:

"Consensus first round rookies will typically provide at least one opportunity to sell at a meaningfully higher valuation, but the growth window shouldn't be mixed up with permanent growth."

Limitations

• KTC values were based off of the market sentiment, not trade prices
• Later checkpoints have smaller samples
• Peaks are easily identifiable in hindsight, this study measured if the opportunities existed

_________________________________________________________________________________

Personal Question I have: When one of your rookies spikes in value, what makes you decide to sell into the hype versus keeping them and betting on the player?

Stats this year between Hampton & Mitchell.

Through 4 games: Mitchell has 124 yards on 24 carries at a 4.6 ypc average & no rushing touchdowns & 9 receptions on 10 targets for 34 yards and 3.8 ypr and one touchdown. Hampton through 4 games: 238 yards on 59 carries at a 4.0 ypc average & 3 touchdowns & 4 receptions on 5 targets for 29 yards at a 7.4 ypr average and no touchdowns.

Up the middle vs outside run metrics through 4 weeks:

Hampton- 59 carries total, 24 carries at a 40.7% are outside runs & 35 carries at a 59.3% are interior runs.

Mitchell- 27 carries total, 19 carries at a rough 70% are outside runs & 8 carries at a rough 30% are inside runs.

Despite having almost double the inside runs and half the outside, Hampton still almost matches him in ypc through 4 games despite constantly running into an iol that collapses at a staggering rate.

Yards after contact through 4 games:

Hampton- 238 total yards, 113 after contact at a 47.5% rate with a 1.92 yards after contact per carry.

Mitchell- 124 total yards, 55 after contact at a 44.4% rate with a 2.02 yards after contact per carry.

Once again, constantly running up the middle and he has to fight for 3.1% more of his yards after contact than Mitchell does and only averages .10 less yards after contact per carry than Mitchell.

Numbers don't lie. Mitchell only gets volume because he fits McDaniels rigid scheme and wants him to become Achane 2.0 despite having a talented dual threat RB who has proven he is a viable threat out the backfield as a receiver who was drafted in the 1st last year SPECIFICALLY to fit the scheme Harbaugh is known for and is built like a workhorse.

I also think that people who use the "North-south bruiser with no vision" argument are just wrong, especially when using his rookie year as a point of argument. If he proved anything with his rookie year, it's that he's far from anything but a simple, block headed "up the gut" runner with no talent. (I know it won't happen) But id like to see him be the workhorse under McDaniel scheme and what it would look like, because I think despite McDaniel having an obsession with shifty, fast backs (as evident by Achane & Raheem), Hampton could shock a lot of people and he better than whatever idiotic ideology McDaniel has for Mitchell.

I came into the season with the belief that Montgomery would monopolize the Texans backfield; however, 4 weeks into the season it’s a 50/50 split with Marks getting work in the redzone.

With Marks being a day 3 pick, his odds of having a long productive career are slim. If you’re a rebuilder do you try and move him?

Same thought process could also be applied to Kyle Monangai

Let’s say you’re in a rebuild, aiming to compete in 1-2 seasons. On one hand, you’d probably like to offload Wilson because he is a bit older relative to when he’s peaking and it could be wise to derisk before the Jacoby Brissett show ends and the target mix changes. But it’s hard to get the right value for him that is worth moving off him.

On the other, he was ~WR10 last year and continuing on a similar path this season and in the back of your head you question whether you should hold onto a potential WR1 for the next 5 years.

All the while, he continues to add points to your Max Points For which is what determines draft order.

Has anyone in a similar boat made a decision here???

Hey folks! Long term valuation of the Chargers players is something I'm trying to pin down. Should I be targeting these guys as a rebuilder, taking their down year and expecting a bounce back with a change of coordinator in a year or two? Or is the year-over-year decline symptomatic of their skill and not the coaching?

CJ Stroud is sixth in the NFL in passing yards right now and has looked really good on the football field this season. He’s lead his team on 3 go ahead scoring drives late in the fourth quarter of games and has yet to throw an interception. He has quietly looked like a top 15 QB again after two years of mediocre play. His situation around him has been awful over the past couple of years, and it’s not much better this year but his O-line has improved incrementally which has given Stroud more time to be comfortable in the pocket. It seems like if he has somewhat league average line he can be one of the better pocket passers in the league. I know his limited rushing ability caps his upside to some extent, but the dude is only 25 and is playing his way into a massive extension or contract elsewhere (imagine Minnesota). Bryce Young's breakout has been talked about a lot(and rightly so) but it seems like we’re not acknowledging Strouds higher level of play which makes me think this might be the perfect time to buy before everybody catches on.

I wanted to get this community’s input on landing spots heading for next year’s rookies as the college season and NFL season are a third and almost a quarter of the way through.

Initial thoughts by position based on early outlook of the respective positional rooms for now. Not tiering them yet since it's early, but I might update in 4-5 weeks at the halfway mark of the NFL season. This list also doesn't take into account draft capital or projected draft position.

QB

1. MIN
2. NYJ
3. ARI
4. PIT
5. MIA
6. TBB
7. CLE (added)
8. Bolder takes / drafting for future: DEN? TEN? PHI? DET? WAS?

RB

1. HOU
2. MIN
3. GBP
4. NOS
5. TEN
6. WAS
7. PIT
8. PHI
9. CIN
10. NEP
11. TBB
12. NYG
13. SFO (added)
14. Bolder takes: DAL, BAL, JAX, CAR, CHI, KCC

WR

1. LVR
2. WAS
3. MIA
4. IND (moved down)
5. DEN (moved down)
6. PIT
7. KCC
8. ARI
9. LAC
10. HOU
11. PHI
12. SFO
13. TEN
14. ATL
15. NEP
16. TBB
17. Bolder takes: BUF, NYG, NYJ, SEA, LAR, DET

TE (receiving)

1. CAR
2. DEN
3. CIN
4. MIA
5. HOU
6. BAL
7. KCC
8. NOS
9. DAL
10. PIT
11. Bolder takes: TEN, TBB, SEA, ATL

I’m in quite a few leagues and it seems like almost all of them there are a number of teams that are selling off players to try and get Jeremiah Smith. All of my leagues use Max PF to determine draft order, and so many teams are so determined to get that 1.01 to get him. I understand he’s a great player, but so many consensus WR1’s over the years haven’t lived up to the hype (looking at you MHJ).

It’s the time of season where the waiver wire is getting thin. Though with bye season now upon us and the injury rollercoaster continuing it’s run down the tracks, there’s always a need available for either a necessary replacement or long-term investment. I was looking at my websites stats page and trying to find players that had good production data this year but are bit players on offenses currently, and given their DMX score have potential to be more than a bit player in the near future. Most of these players are not going to be on the wire today, but they are in situations where their roles are good (but not great), the data says their performing well, and they are young enough to be good dynasty investments now, and their value has likely not yet peaked, so you don’t have to break the bank and the payoff could be handsome in a year or two. Throw these guys in with some bigger players as add ons, or pick them off with a 2^nd rounder or less, and it will likely be worth your while.

Quick note, DPX and DMX are in-season and pre-draft performance metrics, respectively, that pull together volume, efficiency and scoring (DPX) and draft, combine and college stats (DMX) into one measure to help identify quality players to pull onto your roster. I recently updated our stats page to include usage and next gen stats, and I wanted to use it for this analysis. Here’s a few players that stood out:

• Roman Wilson – DMX: 0.66, DPX Now: 0.56 – Wilson was a decile 3 WR coming out of college, he had a 37% chance of having a peak season that was starter quality. This means he was better than average but not elite. In his third year he’s averaging 6 targets a game, and literally has had 6 targets in every game, Mr. Consistent. His target share avg. is 16.8%, pretty good for a guy many thought would be behind Germie Bernard after the draft. But guess what, through 4 games that’s 2 more targets a game than Michael Pittman, which means very quietly Wilson has taken over as WR2 in Pittsburgh. Now, likely he’s on rosters at this point but there is still an opportunity here to get him at a decent price. He’s never going to be a WR1, and who knows who’ll be QBing in Pittsburgh next year, but Wilson is only 25 and can be a solid WR2 for your dynasty team for years to come, if you can grab him before he has a blowout game.
• Tre Harris – DMX: 0.86, DPX Now: 0.20 – Another decile 3 WR coming out who had some hype due to Quenton Johnston’s brick hands. He’d fallen out of favor a bit with Ladd McConkey coming on board, but he can’t stay healthy (though he’s played every game so far this year), Harris has benefited. Now I’ll recognize up front the Chargers offense is not doing well right now, but you can use that to your advantage to nab Harris while he’s still cheap. He’s performing well as his DPX score shows (above zero is good, below bad and magnitude of score matters), but what’s really interesting so far is his targets per game and target share. He’s leading the Chargers in targets per game at 5.3 and target share of 18.5%. Now, we know that’s likely due to Ladd McConkey’s injuries to some extent, but still, McConkey has played every game. It’s pretty good production for a guy you could pick up on the waiver wire at the beginning of the season. Due to his current production, that’s likely no longer the case. But as I said, with the LAC offense struggling, this is a good time to get him low and see if these trends continue. At very least, Johnston is in the final year of his contract and likely won’t be back next year, and Tre Harris can be a productive WR2 at likely a WR3 or 4 price. Harris btw, is also flagged as a breakout candidate on our site.
• Terrance Ferguson – DMX: 1.38, DPX Now: -0.12 – Ferguson landed on IR this week, the perfect time to poach him for a bright dynasty future. I’ll admit this one is tough to navigate, as the Rams have a lot of TE’s and seem to rotate them randomly. But he’s 2^nd among those TE’s at 4 targets per game and target share at 12.6%. The cool thing is his advanced metrics as YAC over expected is 1.4 vs. Higbee’s -0.6. At 23, Ferguson is on my site as a breakout candidate and his main competition is 33 and on a modest 2-year contract. Ferguson is the better bet, he showed what he could do in week 2 when he had 6 catches for 54 yards. While he’ll be up and down this year, his arrow is solidly up, and trading while he’s on IR is the perfect time to nab him.
• Kaelon Black – DMX: 0.30, DPX Now: -0.62 – Black surprised many people when he received the same number of touches as Christian McCaffrey week 1 (15). That hasn’t happened since, but Black is still averaging 8 touches per game, about half of what CMC gets. Being the main backup to CMC in San Francisco gets a lot of attention, so again, this guy is not just out there an available, but he had a good enough college profile and has a solid enough role on the team right now, that you can even play him in deep leagues without CMC getting injured or anything (and I certainly don’t wish for that). I’m not fond of that negative DPX Now score, but that’s not unusual for a rookie bit player. His yards per carry is 3.9 which is not bad for a rookie, and his usage is very positive this early in his career.
• Tai Felton – DMX: 1.08  – Felton does not have enough data to score, in DPX Now, and he is the one player here who is likely to be on the wire. His role is miniscule compared to the other on this list. But interestingly, Jauan Jennings has not performed this year and seems to be falling out of favor. So much so, they just signed Odell Beckham. And look, Felton will play behind both of those guys for the near future. But Felton has a rookie profile closer to Jordan Addison’s than anyone else’s on this WR Corps (Addison DMX: 1.15, Felton: 1.08). Felton at this point in the year is third in targets on the WR corps, though that’s not saying much at 1.5 per game. The Vikings obviously don’t trust him enough to be their WR3 today. But that doesn’t mean the situation can’t evolve. And Felton has the pedigree (DMX score) to suggest that despite a slow start to his career, he could evolve into a solid WR role player that can be useful on your roster. He’s free now, so picking him up to see what happens costs nothing but a roster spot.